Welcome

Workshop Risk Assessment

Gordon Hayburn
Technical Director, Agri-Food Safety
QMI-SAI Global
Risk Analysis

(Quantitative) Risk Assessment

How big is the risk, what factors control the
risk?
Scientific process
Risk Communication
How can we talk about the risk with affected
individuals?
Social and psychological process
Risk Management
What can we do about the risk?
Political process
Stages in Risk Analysis
Purpose of Risk Assessment

Why do we have to do Risk Assessments?

Requirement of most 3rd party certification

schemes

Key tool
Can/should be very detailed
Using knowledge to focus activities
The Challenges

Knowledge Gaps

Scientific Advances
Knowledge Gaps

Knowledge
Gaps Know Dont Know

Know Know Dont Know

Know Know

Dont Know Know Dont Know

Dont Know Dont Know
 Scientific Advances

Methods of Detection
Speed of Detection
Limits of Detection
Regulations are not keeping up with Science!
Exercise 1

What is a Hazard?

Produce a short definition of Hazard

(2 minutes)
 What is a Hazard?

A microbiological, chemical or physical

property which may cause a food to be
unsafe for consumption

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 Describing Hazards

Be Specific

Do not group hazards together under headings such as:

Pathogens
Foreign Bodies

Without a proper identification of the hazard it will be difficult to

determine if the Critical Limits are appropriate

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 Clostridium

Water pH Temperature Species

Activity
0.97 4.7 3.0 C C botulinum
(non-proteolytic)
0.94 4.6 10 C C botulinum
(proteolytic)

0.93 4.5 12 C C perfringens

Not 5.3 Considered to be C estertheticum

reported <0 C (spoilage)
 Microbiological Hazards

Type of pathogen
Specific organism
Resistant forms, e.g. spores, cysts
Toxin formers
Vegetable organisms
Hazard manifestation
Presence
Contamination
Survival
Growth

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 Pathogenic Bacteria - Considerations

Wide range of organisms:

Heat resistance
Grow at chill temperatures
Formation of toxins in foods
Dose Response Level (Infective dose)
Oxygen requirement
Differing reactions to the products intrinsic control factors;
e.g. pH, Aw

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 Exercise 2: Pathogenic Bacteria

For the organism you have been given,

allocate a risk level.

Prepare a list of factors that influence this decision.

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Undertaking a Risk Assessment
What is the Risk?

Risk is a combination of:

The likelihood of the hazard occurring

and
The severity of the illness or injury

HACCP requires control of any hazard that may be

reasonably expected to occur

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 Step in Risk Assessment

Hazard Identification
What microbe, food(s) and people are involved?

Exposure Analysis (Assessment)

What is the chance of exposure?
How many cells?

Dose-Response Analysis (Hazard Characterisation)

What is the human health effect of the exposure?

Risk Characterisation
Complete picture of the assessed risk
Risk Assessment

Detailed product / process knowledge

Historical evidence
Use information sources
Research and evaluate the information

A company cannot use risk assessment as a

means of not complying with requirements

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 Undertake a Risk Assessment

This is done by considering the Likely Occurrence of

the Hazard and the Severity of the injury/illness that
it may cause

The company must document a decision on which

level of concern is significant

Only those activities which fall into or above this

level are further considered as potential CCPs

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 Exercise 3

Give your own definition of the terms listed

on the paper you have been given

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 Risk Assessment Matrix

LIKELIHOOD (Probability)

Frequent Likely Occasional Seldom Unlikely

Extremely
High
SEVERITY

Critical High

Moderate Medium

Negligible
Low

Risk levels
Risk Quantification

To assist the HACCP team in making

appropriate decisions, the terms used for
both the severity and likelihood columns
in the risk assessment matrix must be
quantified

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Quantitative Risk Assessment

Most effective technique

based on fact not opinion

Availability and accuracy of data are

limiting and potentially deceiving factors
Risk Quantification

To assist the HACCP team in making

appropriate decisions, the terms used for both
the severity and likelihood columns in the
risk assessment matrix must be quantified
(as can be reasonably established)

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Severity

Number of people affected

Length of illness
Time off work
Potency of illness
Lasting effects
Other factors as appropriate

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 Severity

Different groups of the population will be affected in

different ways
e.g. E coli O157 is much more dangerous to very
young and very old people

It is for this reason that the intended use of the product

must be identified, otherwise it is difficult to correctly
assign an accurate overall level of concern

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 Likelihood

This should ideally be a numerical value:

Specific number
Percentage
Ratio

The nature of the food business will influence this:

High production volumes
Variability of process

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 Summary

Integral part of the Food Safety Management System

Needs to be done by competent staff

Needs to be reviewed at appropriate intervals

Needs to be regarded as a dynamic part of the system

Thank you
THANK YOU