Running Head: TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY?

Transportation Revolution Are We Ready Today?

Emil Albrychiewicz

The University of California, Berkeley

College Writing Program R1A

TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 2

Transportation Revolution Are We Ready Today?

Without a doubt, transportation plays a major role in peoples lives. Since the

beginning of humanity, inventors have tried to address that challenge. They put great

effort into discovering new, revolutionary vehicles that allow for the transport of goods

and passengers economically and ecologically. Surprisingly, most of the current ideas

that engineers work on, are just revisited concepts from the past. This essay presents

the histories of four such environmentally friendly vehicles. In each section, the reader

will follow the evolution of a vehicle, from its basic ideas through more or less glorious

moments till its current situation. Each story reveals that in fact these vehicles followed

the similar pattern and their success in the past mainly depended on how economical

the idea was. However, the situation has changed recently, as people started to focus on

ecology as well. As a result, today, these ideas receive a chance for second life.

Electric cars is the time right?

The first section explores the idea of electric cars, as they seem to be on the verge

of great expansion it is forecasted that their sales will double by 2020 (Bloomberg,

2017). Electric vehicles are enjoying positive reception among governments, investors,

and potential users. The future looks bright but unbeknownst to most of us, electric cars

also have a very long and rather gloomy history. The lessons from the past reveal why

electric vehicles were subdued so many times.

The story begins, in the 1800s, when inventors developed the first prototypes of

electric motors and long-standing batteries (Matulka, 2014). Later, electric cars became

more and more popular with drivers, and at the end of the nineteenth century around

thirty percent of cars on American roads had an electric engine (Matulka, 2014). The

performance of the first electric cars was not impressive; one of the best-selling vehicles
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 3

of that time the Columbia Roundabout had a range of only about 40 miles and a

maximum speed of up to 15 mph (Romero, 2009). However, compared to the gasoline

cars of the time they were much simpler, less noisy in use and they required less

maintenance. Indeed, to operate a traditional gasoline car the driver had to change

gears, which wasnt an easy task and due to poor combustion technology cars often

backfired (the car sounded like a shooting gun) or even had problems with ignition

(Romero, 2009; Matulka, 2014). Moreover, the lack of combustion filters made gasoline

cars extremely noxious, whereas electric cars didnt emit any pollutants.

As time passed by, inventors worked to eliminate the drawbacks of both electric

and combustion technology. The idea of electric cars attracted the best innovators of this

time, like Thomas Edison, Ferdinand Porsche, and Henry Ford. Paradoxically, the latter

made a kiss of death to electric cars with his famous, first-ever affordable car - the Ford

Model T (Matulka, 2014). Thereafter, research and development resources were

allocated in favor of one technology. Due to the improvements in construction and the

introduction of the electric starter, which simplified the process of ignition, gasoline cars

became more practical for use (Matulka, 2014). Their mass production also made them

more and more affordable around 1912 the gasoline vehicle cost only around $650

whereas, the electric counterpart sold for $1750 (Matulka, 2014). Drivers spent their

money gasoline cars. As a result, economic motives led to the quick extinction of electric

cars. By 1935, electric cars completely disappeared from city streets (Matulka, 2014).

After thirty years, economic motives gave electric cars a second chance. People

realized that fuel supply shortages and the increasing price of oil were huge

disadvantages for gasoline cars (Romero, 2009). However, after a thirty-year break, the

return to research was difficult. The models produced at that time had limited

performance and the idea was aborted again (Matulka, 2014; Romero, 2009). The next
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chance appeared in the 1990s when General Motors presented their new electric car

model the EV1 (Romero, 2009). This car was the first electric vehicle that had satisfying

performance (speed of up to 80 mph and range of up to 90 miles) and it quickly gained a

cult following; people subscribed to waitlists to purchase it (Matulka, 2014). Despite its

success, the program was closed because of high production costs (Matulka, 2014). Once

again economic motives killed the idea of electric vehicles and indisposed the

introduction of environmentally friendly vehicles.

Today, we observe a true renaissance of the electric car. New developments in

electric car technology have made its production less expensive and the constant

increase of the fuel price has forced people to find a cheaper alternative. The former

drawbacks of electric cars have been mostly eliminated not only by technology but

also by external circumstances such as huge development in material sciences that have

created a wide range of possibilities for new batteries. Electric cars can now drive

almost 200 miles per charge, which seem to be a decent range for urban areas, and an

increasing number of cities are installing charging stations. The cars are fast, reaching

even 186 mph (Bloomberg, 2017). Even price the most reluctant factor to improve

has started to decrease due to the growing market and competition, today drivers can

choose from than 30 different models of electric vehicles (Matulka, 2014). In fact, the

electric car has become affordable for a significant number of customers. As a result,

analytics predicts that within the next decade the prices of electric and gasoline cars will

achieve parity (Bloomberg, 2017). Finally, electric vehicles have become competitive

because of their environmental advantages. With no pollution emitted at all, electric cars

are a perfect choice for people concerned about ecology.

The main motivations for buying electric cars are saving money on fuel costs and

reducing environmental impacts. This shows how nowadays economy mixes and
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becomes compatible with ecology. Ecologically conscious customers feel free of guilt

driving eco-friendly electric vehicles and now they no longer need to accept the

drawbacks of such solution. The future of electric cars has started to become a reality. It

looks like this time we have the power to demand that they stay longer.

Airships is the sky wide open for them?

The airship is another type of vehicle that nowadays may receive the second

chance to stay longer. Their story is very similar to that of the electric cars. Once praised

to be the future of transportation, what followed was a long extinction.

When British hard rock band Led Zeppelin released their first album with the

iconic photo of an airship exploding, a spectacular fireball on the cover, the successors of

pioneering airship builder Graf Zeppelin had wanted to sue the band (Welch, 1984). No

wonder. The tragic accident of the Hindenburg airship over Lakehurst, N.J., killing 36

crew members and passengers, suddenly marked the end of the sky equivalent of luxury

transatlantic cruisers and condemned the visionary German entrepreneur for ages.

Zeppelin, whose work began the era of airships, might have felt innocent. The

dirigible (a term for airship from French word dirigeable meaning steerable) used cheap

and readily available but extremely flammable hydrogen to fill its balloon. The only safe

replacement for hydrogen - helium gas - was much more expensive and difficult to

excavate because the only helium mines existed in the USA and Germans were banned

from buying it after the Great War. Maybe the authors of that specific embargo bore in

mind that Zeppelins were used for bombing raids on London during the war (Tagliabue,

2008). This story shows that 70 years ago airships were considered seriously as the

means of air transportation as well as a tool of war.

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Indeed, at the beginning of the twentieth century when travel between Europe

and America took at least four exhausting days on a ship, the airship alternative was

enticing. Airships needed only half that time and offered conditions similar to the most

luxurious ships (Laniado, 2000). Passengers could enjoy their travel time in spacious

and beautifully decorated saloons and cabins (Laniado, 2000). They could even use the

smoking room, which was actually one of the most popular places for meetings (LZ-130

Graf Zeppelin, 2017). Besides the luxurious accommodations, the flights were so

smooth and stable that passengers often did not notice the point when the airship

actually took off (LZ-130 Graf Zeppelin 2017). All of these experiences might be

unimaginable for us who today have become accustomed to the frequent turbulence,

awful food, and cramped space of modern airplane flights. However, speed is a major

advantage that made planes much more popular than airships.

Around the 1920s people were convinced that airships would become the future

of transportation (Laniado, 2000). Just twenty years later, the last airships were cut into

strap (Airships.net, 2017). The extinction process sharply accelerated after the

Hindenburg airship catastrophe. Even though it wasnt the deadliest airship accident, it

had the most dramatic impact around the world (Laniado, 2000) as it was the first

televised disaster. Meanwhile, major improvements in airplane technology caused the

use of airships after the catastrophe to be hugely limited. Nevermore were airships used

as a means of transportation. Nowadays, there are just thirty airships in the world -

mostly used as advertisements during sporting events. The once grand liners of the

Atlantic Ocean, airships have been reduced to flying billboards. With more than 39,000

active planes in the world, the difference is overwhelming (Morris, 2017).

However, increasing environmental awareness might help airships to be reborn.

Planes are extreme pollutants; an airship can carry a similar load as a cargo plane, but is
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 7

seventy percent more environmentally-friendly (Carter, 2014). Airships also do not

need long runways and are able to operate in areas that are inaccessible for planes. No

matter whether it is ice, desert, or field, airships can transport cargo in nearly every

environment (Carter, 2014). These advantages make airships an ideal replacement not

only for cargo planes, but also for freight trucks. Airships can reach speeds of up to 100

mph, carry around 50 tonnes of load and are not impacted by traffic jams like trucks

(Carter, 2014). Many cargo companies consider this as an improvement. One of the

examples is the French postal service, which wants to use airships to deliver packages

and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by fifteen percent (Tagliabue, 2008). In times of

increasing fuel prices, such change can also bring huge economic benefits. To visualize

the scale of savings, on one tank of fuel HAV airships are able to stay airborne for up to

three weeks (Carter, 2014).

Nevertheless, the use of airships is still in the future. Aerial engineers still need to

overcome the problems that affect airships. The most important drawback is their huge

dependences on weather; airships barely operate in strong wind conditions. As a result,

many people, even those who are engaged in the industry, are skeptical about the idea to

use airships as freighters. Thomas Brandt, the chief executive of Zeppelin Company,

which offers sightseeing flights, claims: Airships are unstable, they depend on the

weather, so we fly today from March to November(Tagliabue, 2008). However, the

newest achievements help to reduce the size of the balloon and in effect reduce the

impact of weather.

Innovation is often a combination of new and old elements (Young, 2016), and a

hybrid of airship, plane, and helicopter, a more resistant to weather conditions vehicle,

could be acclaimed as a real innovation. Hybrid Air Vehicles Ltd has prepared solutions

that have made a huge step forward in putting airships back into the game. The days we
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see the floating leviathans carrying people and cargo are coming. As Brian Dickinson

claimed, HAV is the game changer (Carter, 2008). If Mr. Dickinson lead vocal of heavy

metal band Iron Maiden, the host of TV series Flying Heavy Metal, avid pilot and owner

of Boeing 757 Ed Force One - declares his interest in HAV, it might really be something

bigger than just the entertainment. Maybe it is just a matter of few years that the

mention of Zeppelins will evoke a new revolutionary vehicle rather than just the name

of a rock music band.

PRT transport of Eldorado?

The similar doom of being a form of entertainment concerned the idea of

Personal Rapid Transport (PRT) - a system of small, automated vehicles that operates on

a network of specially built guideways. Today, people can mainly experience PRT as an

attraction in amusement parks, such as Tomorrowland, where small cabins transport

visitors between the various points on a tour (Herbst, 2010). However, when the idea

was first presented in the 1950s, the purpose was more sublime (Anderson, 1996). PRT

was designed to solve the problem of personal transportation in big cities.

The problem comes from the fact that transportation is the bloodstream of every

city. Hence congestion in city transportation could be a warning for cardiac arrest

immobilizing the whole body of a city. That vital urban issue is under the observation of

city officials and futurists.

Theres an anecdote about futurists debating the inhabitance limits for New York

City. They gathered in the midst of the 19th century, and came back with an answer: a

half million people. The base of their calculation was very solid. They took under

consideration the transportation needs and divided them with the numbers of horses
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 9

needed. A half million was the precise number of people who could live in the city, enjoy

full mobility and not drown in horse manure (Koolhas, 1997).

If you can forgive me for starting with an anecdote, I would like to advocate for

myself. There are three reasons to evoke it: first the problem of urban transportation

is much older than the most of us could think; second as we learn from the anecdote,

technology changes the game; third most visionaries are terribly wrong. The latter

dictates that we approach all of their predictions with skepticism.

Such skepticism appeared to be true about the PRT. Besides its promising

perspectives at the beginning, the idea was abandoned for many years and has needed

to wait for today to be reborn. Once again, the story of this vehicle followed the common

pattern. Not surprisingly, the same factor economics - had a leading voice in deciding

how the evolution of the PRT would look.

When the idea was first proposed, people believed that they could construct an

autonomous system that would transport them directly from one place to another. The

main aim was to offer personalized transportation, which would be available

immediately on demand and would avoid time spent in traffic jams (Anderson, 1996).

To better visualize these assumptions, imagine that you leave your house and instead of

going and waiting at a bus stop, you head to a PRT station just next to your house. On the

station, a small electric cabin is already waiting for you. Now, you just enter your

destination on the screen and travel there without any stops. For many of us, this sounds

like a utopian idea. People waste an unimaginable amount of hours in transportation

and the fundamental goal of PRT was to reduce that time.

In the 1960s there were people who believed that the PRT can be quickly and

cheaply introduced into cities (Light Rail Now, 2004). The idea attracted many engineers

and professors around the world. Even the US Military and NASA engaged in research, as
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 10

the US government extensively supported the idea of PRT (Anderson, 1996). Nixon and

his administration followed the belief that the system would help to resolve increasing

congestion problems on roads across America (Light Rail Now, 2004). Moreover, many

innovators convinced the public that PRT would be cheaper in implementation than

other railways systems such as subways or trams (Light Rail Now, 2004). As a result,

many cities considered or even invested in the construction of PRT for purely economic

reasons. The vision of the private and comfortable form of transport gained huge

popularity (Anderson, 1996).

However, shortly after the beginning, researchers realized that these technical

challenges were far more serious than they had estimated (Light Rail Now, 2004). PRT

prototypes consumed bigger and bigger amounts of money and didnt give satisfactory

results. PRT needed very complicated infrastructure and driverless technology, which

was far beyond the computer science possibilities of that time. Governments and private

companies started to realize that the idea was not as economical as they believed.

Therefore, in the 1980s many of these projects were abandoned (Light Rail Now, 2004).

A good example is Aramis, the French PRT project, which ran for 20 years and cost

around 500 million francs without any practical results (Dodson, 2010). Only one PRT

system from that time was successfully implemented and works today. When it was first

proposed as a connection between the parts of West Virginia University campus,

advocates estimated that it would not cost more than 14 million dollars per mile.

However, finally, it took more than 89 million dollars per mile (Light Rail Now, 2004).

This difference clearly shows how huge was the gap between the futuristic vision of PRT

and reality.

Today, technology has made unimaginable improvements to overcome that gap.

Many software and car manufacturers are concentrating on the construction of

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driverless cars (Walker, 2016). With such technology, the idea of PRT has become

feasible again. The best example is the first successful implementation of PRT, named

Ultra, at Heathrow Airport (Dodson, 2010). The network consists of small pods that

connect the airports terminals to each other and to parking lots.

Since the beginning, the system has received hugely positive feedback. The

passengers mainly underlined the privacy that pods give them, as they can travel alone.

They also appreciate the fact that they dont need to waste time waiting at stations; the

company claims that the maximum waiting time is twelve seconds (Dodson, 2010). The

success of the Ultra system encouraged other investors to revisit the PRT idea again.

Cities around the world are trying to add PRT into their public transport systems

(Dodson, 2010). Some transportation experts even state that private ownership of cars

will end in the next 10-15 years (Walker, 2016). Instead of them, citizens will be using a

network of driverless cars and pods, which will eliminate traffic congestion and carbon

dioxide pollution. Then, finally, will PRT fulfill its original goal. It will completely

revolutionize the future of city transport and turn a utopian notion into reality.

Bumpy ride for the Segway

The Segway, a type of self-balancing scooter, was another invention that aimed to

revolutionize the way in which people move. A few weeks before Segway was first

presented to the public, people were expecting that this event would be a turning point

in the history of transportation (Heilemann, 2001). However, the reality was equally

cruel for Segway as for its enthusiasts. The vision of streets full of Segways appeared to

be completely unreal. Today, it is so rare to spot Segways in public spaces that people

still act surprised when they actually encounter them. Although the project hasnt
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fulfilled its initial promises, some inventors still believe in this idea. They want to give

Segway a second chance.

Dean Kamen, an inventor of Segway, expected that the effect of his project would

be comparable to the revolution that Henry Ford made when he first introduced a

gasoline car that was affordable for everyone (Vanderbilt, 2009). Surely, there were

reasons why Kamen could feel so proud of his invention. The construction of Segway

was indeed a breakthrough in technology. Kamen made travel effortless. If passengers

wanted to move forward, they just needed to lean forward; if they wanted to turn, they

just need to balance on the side in which they wanted to turn. To power all these

movements, Kamen designed an intricate motor system that used electricity. As a result,

Segway was also environmental friendly. With the maximal speed up to 20 km/h and

range up to 45 km, Segway was definitely an interesting alternative for cars, bikes or

traditional scooters (Wert, 2009).

This time, it wasnt even the money that caused the failure of Segway. With the

cost of $5,000 it was not the cheapest invention, but it was still affordable for most

consumers. The problem was that most people would probably not travel by Segway

even if someone gave them one to use for free. The reason is simple: people dont want

to be seen using them (Graham, 2009). The common complaint is that Segway users look

awkward. Kamens invention is so natural in use that the people who ride Segway seems

to be too smug (Graham, 2009). Perhaps his desire to construct a scooter, which would

mirror the way in which people walk, was exaggerated. Some authors also claim that

Kamen model Segway too much on medical devices (Wert, 2009). His idea was great for

a hospital but completely unfitted to the streets. Also, the weight of Segway was a huge

disadvantage; the product was too heavy to carry over an uneven surface. The cause of

failure may also lie in the fact that before its unveiling Kamen never tested his idea with
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 13

the public (Heilemann, 2001). He confined himself to hype about an upcoming

revolution in transportation, which helped to raise the mystery and expectations -

around the project. However, when the curtain lifted Segway became an outlier.

Not surprisingly, after such huge disappointment Segway quickly become a

national joke (Sofge, 2008). The few people who decided to use Segway often

complained that they were heckled by passersby (Sofge, 2008). Segway became a

symbol of helplessness. It even played a major role in the slapstick comedy Paul Bart:

Mall Cop, when it perfectly mirrored the clumsy bodyguard (Vanderbilt, 2009).

At the same time, besides the initial amusement, it slowly appeared that Segway

is useful for public safety. Indeed, Carol Valianti, Segways VP of Global Communication,

estimates that law enforcement agencies constitute around 60% of Segway sales (Sofge,

2008). Police agencies around the world choose Segway as it gives officers better

visibility (additional 8 inches to height), can be used on pavements and in parks, and

finally is cheaper in use and doesnt emit pollutants. Moreover, some Fire Departments

across the America have bought Segway for their EMTs. A good example is Salt Lake City,

where Segway is used in more congested areas that cannot be accessed by traditional

ambulances. There are even companies such as StreetSmart that develop special

versions for anti-riots and bomb squads. Although Segway didnt revolutionize

transportation, it has found its niche in public service duty. As a result, instead of being

the revolutionary mass-market product, Segway rather painfully breaks own path

through different niche markets. No wonder Segways officials talk about sales increase

in percentage and are reluctant to talk about sales volume and value.

Nevertheless, recently Chinese company Xiaomi, well-known smartphone

producer, bought Segway technology and revealed a plan to introduce its new version to

market (Horowitz, 2015). Xiaomi states that their Segway is much lighter and cheaper
TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION TODAY? 14

than the old one, and most importantly, it has a new design. In the production of new

Segway Xiaomi tried to follow the design of hoverboards, which recently gained huge

popularity. The company believes that its revision of the Segway will help to repair the

vehicles bad reputation. Perhaps, it is just matter of a few years that finally everyone

will be using new Segway as Kamen once dreamt.

It is more likely if the new versions primary market will be China. In this huge

country, bicycles have long been a dominant means of transportation, leaving as a relic a

dense net of broad bicycle paths. Eliminating the product disadvantages during research

and development, tapping into consumer attitudes and lifestyles, counting market

capacities and looking for proper environment/infrastructure are like commandments

carved on the tablets of stone. Dean Kamen appeared to be a mediocre observant and, as

a result, made a costly failure. Now, Xiaomi is on the position to be a second mouse, the

one which will eat the cheese.

History reveals that all these vehicles followed a similar pattern. After the initial

fascination and moments of glory, they had to overcome spectacular failures and periods

of extinction. In each case, the cause of the failure was different - a mixture of various

circumstances. However, there was one common factor that had a leading role. Each

time economy verified and determined the success of the idea. Yet as time has passed,

the economy has changed and the ecology has started to play an important role.

Nowadays, people realize that environment friendly ideas allow them not only to save

the planet, but some money as well. These two advantages give these vehicles a bright

future.

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