SCOTTISH EMPLOYMENT INDEX

OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2017
 Introduction
Introduction from Gavin Mochan, S1 Sales Director
Im delighted to welcome you to the s1
Employment Guide, an exciting new quarterly
from the nations recruitment experts and
Scotlands number one jobs site.
As you know, in business we dont always
have the time or resources to keep bang
up to date on employment trends and
recruitment insights.
Often the information required to safeguard
or grow a company is hidden in the depths
of many different possible platforms,
including newspaper articles, industry
blogs and government reports.
Thats why this new guide aims to do all of
the hard work for you by collecting all of
the latest statistics before analysing them
and making them easier to read, digest
and utilise.
The goal is to not only offer a detailed
health check of employment in Scotland
but also get behind the facts and figures
and offer incisive views on what they might
mean for you and your business.
Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017
Data collated methodically from
authoritative sources, such as the Office
of National Statistics and the Scottish
Governments Retail Sales Index, builds up
a picture of the state of the nation when it
comes to jobs.
This issue kicks off with a summary of the
ups and downs of the past year, before
examining areas of particular interest.
These include looking at the effects of
consumer spending, the influence of
Scotlands top recruiters and the levels of
hiring demand in various sectors.
Finally, you have a chance to meet the
movers and shakers who could prove to
be hugely influential in shaping Scotlands
future employment landscape.
Id like to thank you personally for
subscribing to Scotlands newest and most
informative guide to employment.
Gavin Mochan, s1 Sales Director
Summary
Yes, its all about jobs and for
the past two years steady growth
in employment has been the 1. Summary
governments most loudly trumpeted
2. Employment and unemployment
achievement since the financial crisis.
indicators Scotland
However, the UK has now seen its first
drop in employment levels since last a. Employment rates by UK region
summers Brexit vote, according to b. Scotlands Employment Rates compared to
new data from the Office of National the other countries within the UK
Statistics (ONS). c. Scottish Employment Rates by age (%)
In line with the UK trend, Scottish d. Scottish Unemployment Rates by Age (%)
e. Full-time, part-time and temporary workers
employment figures have dipped from
f. Temporary workers (reasons for temporary
2,655,000 in June to August this year
working)
to 2,652,000 in July to September.
g. Part-time workers (reasons for
This doesnt mean its all hand- part-time working)
wringing doom and gloom out there
3. Workforce Jobs by Industry YoY
however.
Comparison
The year-on-year figure for Scotland
shows employment is still up by 4. Scottish Hiring Demand
53,000 compared to Q3 2016 and,
5. S1jobs Scotlands top recruiter
year-on-year, unemployment is down
follows
by 21,000.
In fact, the latest figures for July to 6. Business confidence
August 2017 show unemployment 7. Consumer Spending
levels have actually fallen marginally
from 113,000 to 109,000 to bring 8. Movers and Shakers
levels in the over-16 population to 4%.
Perhaps of slightly more concern are
signs of less confidence among our
small businesses.
The Small Business Index for Q3 2017
puts business confidence at -15.2
points in Scotland, a steep drop from
-3.8 points in the previous quarter and
the lowest level in the UK.
So lets drill deeper into the latest
statistics.
Introduction from the Sales Director 2
 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland

The employment figures in the latest In Scotland employment rates are Employment rate1 Unemployment rate2 Inactivity rate3
ONS report show a departure from the highest in the 35-49 age bracket. (%) aged 16 to 64 (%) aged 16 and over (%) aged 16 to 64
general upwards trend. While not a Employment rates have increased by Change from April to June 2017 Change from April to June 2017 Change from April to June 2017
headlong fall off the cliff, they certainly 4.2% in the 50-65 group and by 3.2%
do mark a change in direction. among over 65s. There are 87,000
over-65s currently working in Scotland,
Scotlands employment rate has
59% of whom are men and 41% women.
dropped from 75.3%, in the period 68.1 4 28.9
75 4.3 21.6
covering June to August 2017 to 75.2% Unemployment in the over-16s stands
in July to September. at 4%. Its highest in the 16-24 group -1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.2 2 0.3
with 10.1% reported as unemployed.
This is lower than the rate in England,
Indeed, employment rates within this
which was 75.4 %, but higher than the 75.2 4 21.6 -0.1
age bracket have dropped by -5.6% 0 0.1
UK-wide rate of 75. Taking a magnifying -0.1 75.2 -0.1 4.3 0.2 21.4
glass to the figures, there are some since 2006/7.
significant differences between age
groups and genders. -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.2
72.5 75.4 4.1 4.3 24.2 21.2

TABLE/DATA:
Figure 1: Employment rates by region and comparison year-on-year,
UK Great Britain England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
seasonally adjusted, July to September 2016 and July to September 2017

Jul-Sep Jul-Sep YoY

Employment rates by Jul-Sep 2017%
Region 2017 % 2016 % Change
region & comparison YoY Jul-Sep 2016%
SOURCE: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
North East 72.7 71 1.7
YoY Change employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/
North West 74.0 72.3 1.7 employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/
regionallabourmarket/november2017
80 South East 79.7 78.1 1.6
70 Scotland 75.2 73.6 1.6 SOURCE: Office for National Statistics
60 London 74.3 73.5 0.8 Notes: 1. Calculation of headline employment rate:
Number of employed people aged from 16 to 64 divided
50 East 77.7 77.1 0.6 by the population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the
sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive. 2.
40 UK 75.0 74.4 0.6 Calculation of headline unemployment rate: Number of
30 South West 77.4 77.0 0.4 unemployed people aged 16 and over divided by the sum
of employed people aged 16 and over plus unemployed
20 Yorkshire and The Humber 73.0 73.0 0 people aged 16 and over. 3. Calculation of headline
10
economic inactivity rate: Number of economically
Wales 72.5 73.0 -0.5 inactive people aged from 16 to 64 divided by the
0
West Midlands 72.4 73.3 -0.9 population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the sum of
Yorkshire &
The Humber
North West

South East

South West
Scotland

Northern Ireland
UK

Humber
London

Wales

East Midlands
North East

West Midlands
East

employed plus unemployed plus inactive.

-10
East Midlands 73.8 75.2 -1.4
Yorkshire & The

Northern Ireland 68.1 69.8 -1.7

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland 3
 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland

Scottish Employment Rates by Age for June - August 16 Scottish Unemployment Rates by Age from Jun 16 - Jun 17

average average average average average

16-24 57.8% 35-49 82.1% 65+ 8.8% 16-24 10.1% 35-49 3.2%
SOURCE:
ONS, HI11 Regional labour
market: Headline indicators
for Scotland, https://
57.7% 85.6% 11.5% 11.9% 3.5% www.ons.gov.uk/employ-
mentandlabourmarket/
57.8% 78.9% 6.6% 8.2% 2.8% peopleinwork/employ-
mentandemployeetypes/
average average average average datasets/headlinelabour-
25-34 81.4% 50-64 68.3% 25-34 4.5% 50-64 3.6% forcesurveyindicators-
Scottish Employment forscotlandhi11
Rates for June-August
85.5% 72.8% 2016 (published in ONS 4% 4.1%
October no change in
75.6% 64.2% data in November report) 5.2% 3%

90
80
Scottish Unemployment Rates Jun 13 - July 17, Age 16 - 64
70
60
50
10.0
40 5.0
30 0.0
20 2013 - 2014 2014 - 2015 2015 - 2016 2016 - 2017
10
0
04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

15/16

16/17

16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland 4
 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland

Full, Part-Time & Temporary Workers from July 2016 to June 2017

1,162 169 38 61

COMBINED COMBINED COMBINED COMBINED

TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
1,891 697 95 131
728 528 57 69

Full-time workers Part-time workers Workers with 2nd jobs Temporary employees

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland 5
 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland

Temporary workers (reasons for temporary work)

70
60
50
40
30 Could not find
a permanent job
20 Did not want
a permanent job
10
Other
0
Jul 13 - Jun 14 Jul 14 - Jun 15 Jul 15 - Jun 16 Oct 15 - Sept 16 Jan 16 - Dec 16 Apr 16 - Mar 17 Jul 16 - Jun 17

Part-time workers (reasons for part-time work)

500
450
As ever, the picture of part-time
400 work is slightly more complex.

350 Some 38% of women report as

working part-time compared with
300 11.8% of men. Of those giving a
reason for working part-time,
250 for 67% it was a lifestyle choice
but for 14% it was inability to find
200 full-time employment.

150 Similarly with temporary work -

for 24% it was a deliberate decision
100 but for 28% it was because they
could not find a permanent job.
50
Jul 13 - Jun 14 Jul 14 - Jun 15 Jul 15 - Jun 16 Oct 15 - Sept 16 Jan 16 - Dec 16 Apr 16 - Mar 17 Jul 16 - Jun 17

Could not find Did not want

a full-time job a full-time job Other

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Employment & Unemployment Indicators Scotland 6
 Workforce Jobs by Industry YoY Comparison

One-year Seven-year Health is wealth as Scotlands healthcare 2016 a significant 10% dip was in
Employment % of total change change sector continues to be the biggest Accommodation and Food Services.
Broad Industry Category 2016 employment (2015-2016) (2009-2016) employer in the country with 16% of all
The good news, however, is it has now
employees working in the industry in 2016.
been bolstered by a longer-term growth
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services 136000 5 20 27
Not surprisingly, our enduring love of of 4% on the back of growing tourism
Property 39000 2 15 22 shopping sees retail as the next biggest numbers from 2009.
Information & Communication 74000 3 17 12 employer, accounting for 9% of the working
population, ahead of sectors such as This may have been helped by the so-
Motor Trades 49000 2 7 11 education, professional, scientific and called Outlander Effect, with growing
technical, all of which all account for 7%. numbers of tourists attracted to Scotland
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities 68,000 3 -3 10 via tartan-trimmed TV shows.
Professional, Scientific & Technical 178000 7 4 9 One surprising area showing robust growth
is the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Its perhaps not surprising industries
Health 411000 16 -1 6 sector, which has enjoyed an increase of affected most sharply by the financial
20% in employment levels between 2015 crash of 2008 finance and manufacturing
Accommodation & Food Services 190000 7 -10 4
and 2016. have sustained the biggest reductions in
Business administration & support services 188000 7 1 3 employees in the long term. Go figure!
Transport & Storage (inc postal) 108000 4 3 2 This figure is no theatrical flash in the pan
either, as the long-term trend from 2009 to Employment levels are down 9% in Finance
Public Administration & Defence 154000 6 5 1 2016 shows an impressive 27% growth. and Insurance and by 6% in Manufacturing
between 2009 and 2016.
Wholesale 77000 3 -3 -1 If you needed more evidence we are
living in an information age, just look Ever the eternal comeback kid, the
Retail 245000 9 0 -2
to the figures for the Information and property industry is still safe as houses
Construction 141000 5 1 -4 Communication industry. These show a despite experiencing uncertain times
growth of 17% between 2015 and 2016 following the financial crash, it went on to
Education 188000 7 -3 -4
and, over the longer term from 2009 to enjoy growth of 22% between 2009 and
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 76000 3 1 -6 2016.
2016, a sustained growth of 12%.
Manufacturing 180,000 7 -1 -6 This trend is supported by the growing
One of the biggest reductions in
$ Financial & Insurance 86000 3 0 -9 employment between 2015 and number of properties now advertising on
s1homes.

SOURCE: Scotlands Employment by Industry and Geography, SB 17-71(2)

STATS:
Highest employment by Industry in Scotland in 2016:
Health sector (16%),
Retail (9%),
Accommodation and Food, Business Administration
& Support Services, Education, Manufacturing, Professional,
Scientific & Technical all at 7%
Highest Employment GROWTH by Industry sector % (from 2015 to 2016):
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (20%),
Information and Communication (17%)
Property (15%)
Longer term employment GROWTH % (2009-2016): Longer term employment REDUCTIONS % (2009-2016):
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (27%), Financial & Insurance (-9%)
Property (22%) Manufacturing (-6%)
Information and Communication (12%) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (-6%)
Highest employment REDUCTIONS by Industry sector % (2015-16)
Accommodation & Food services (-10%)
Education (-3%)
Wholesale (-3%)
Mining, quarrying & utilities (-3%)

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Workforce Jobs by Industry YoY Comparison 7
 Scottish Hiring Demand

One-year Seven-year Seven-year Seven-year

Employment % of total change change change change We really do enjoy looking out for In the latest quarter, July to
Discipline 2016 employment (2015-2016) (2009-2016) (2009-2016) (2009-2016) one another as Health and Social
Care continued to be the biggest
September, 19% of all vacancies
were in Glasgow and 18% were in
recruiter in Scotland in the third Edinburgh, followed by Aberdeen
Health & Social Care 19141 15885 41 20 20% 13.16%
quarter of this year...and the long- with 8%. The Highlands and Fife
Director / Management 10755 8222 39 31 31% 7.39% term prognosis is looking good. had 5% and 4% respectively of the
share of total vacancies.
Catering / Hospitality 10625 6914 46 54 54% 7.31% Some 13% of all vacancies posted
in the last quarter were in this When it comes to industries
Education / Training 10424 10929 6 -5 -5% 7.17%
?
industry, according to figures from with the biggest growth rates in
?
?
? Unable to Classify 10161 6280 44 62 62% 6.99% the Hiring Demand Report from recruitment, year-on-year figures
Innovantage Systems. show the retail sector easily led
$ Sales 10024 6663 52 50 50% 6.89%
the field by a country mile in the
Engineering / Manufacturing 8321 5095 35 63 63% 5.72% The spread of these vacancies past 12 months to the end of Q3
across the regions saw 14% in 2017 with an impressive growth
Customer Service 8105 5450 24 49 49% 5.57% Glasgow and 11% in Edinburgh of 109%.
Admin / Secretarial / PA 7782 5643 37 38 38% 5.35% and 7% in Fife.
Engineering and manufacturing
Retail 6070 2939 75 107 107% 4.17% After healthcare, the biggest saw vacancies rise a healthy
number of vacancies were in 67%, followed closely by the legal
IT 5853 4279 35 37 37% 4.02% management, catering and industry with a 64% growth since
Ancillary Services 5764 4621 18 25 25% 3.96% hospitality, education and sales, the end of Q3 2016.
all of which accounted for 7%
Supply Chain / Logistics 5371 3483 29 54 54% 3.69% each of the total. Other notables were customer
Property / Construction 4751 3514 28 35 35% 3.27% service and science and
As is to be expected, the bright technology, both of which saw
Accounting / Finance 4235 2898 46 46 46% 2.91% lights, big city appeal of major 57% more vacancies posted in Q3
population centres are where 2017 than in the corresponding
Consultant / Analyst 3895 2942 34 32 32% 2.68% there concentration of advertised quarter in 2016.
Science / Technology 2246 1489 42 51 51% 1.54% vacancies were to be found,
across all industries.
Leisure / Sport / Entertainment 1975 2738 -21 -28 -28% 1.36%
Marketing / Advert / PR 1776 1263 31 41 41% 1.22% STATS
Military / Policing / Security 1480 1381 16 7 7% 1.02% Top number of vacancies in jobs boards in Top 5 Job Board Vacancy Numbers in
Scotland by discipline: Healthcare by Scottish Region
Arts / Media / Design 1362 957 50 42 42% 0.94%
Health & Social Care - 19141 Glasgow City - 14% of all healthcare vacancies
Unknown 1206 0 244 N/A 0.83% Director/Management posts - 10755 Edinburgh - 11%
Catering/Hospitality - 10625 Fife - 7%
HR 1175 945 36 24 24% 0.81%
Education/Training - 10424 Highland - 6%
Banking / Insurance 857 594 46 44 44% 0.59% Sales - 10024 Aberdeen City - 6%
Health / Safety / Environment 750 564 13 33 33% 0.52%
Growth in number of vacancies from Q3 2016 Vacancies per Region
Legal 727 462 67 57 57% 0.50% to Q3 2017 in Scotland by discipline: Glasgow City - 27687 (19%)
Energy / Utilities 617 566 -29 9 9% 0.42% Retail - 109% Edinburgh - 26370 (18%)
Engineering /Manufacturing - 67% Aberdeen City - 11128 (8%)
Legal - 64% Highland - 7456 (5%)
SOURCE: Innovantage Systems Ltd, Hiring Demand Report, Q3 2017 Customer Service - 57% Fife - 6423 (4%)
Science /Technology - 57%

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Scottish Hiring Demand 8

 s1Jobs - Scotlands Top Recruiter Follows

Top s1jobs Follows:
Recruitment Agencies
Search Consultancy
HR Consultancy
Top s1jobs Follows: The most forward-thinking
organisations and recruitment
Organisations agencies are harnessing the
nationwide power of s1jobs to
help them in their search for
perfect candidates.
They know the powerful
Unicorn in s1jobs popular new
advert encourages jobseekers
to be bold in their search for
new careers.
Similarly, companies can
set-up a profile to tell potential
candidates more about their
history, ethos, achievements
and employee benefits.
Its a highly effective way for a
business to flaunt its credentials
as a sought-after employer to
an audience actively seeking
new opportunities.
Job seekers can opt to follow
an individual business and
Search Consultancy, one
of Scotlands best-known
recruitment consultancies,
currently has the highest
Reed Business Support number of follows.
Santander Ofgem
(Edinburgh)
Reed Insurance HSBC Aldi
This has been a long-term
relationship with Search,
boasting three decades
of experience across all
industries.
HR Consultancy also have
a large following on s1jobs,
reflecting their position as
one of the countrys leading
agencies with particular
strengths in filling technical
and professional roles.
Contract Scotland has also built
up a sizeable following as befits
their standing and longevity in
construction recruitment.
In terms of direct Employers,
banking group Santander,
which has branches across the
Central Belt from Ayrshire to
Lothians, is the most followed
company profile, followed
closely by HSBC.
Our national passion for pasties
and craze for cars mean two of
Scotlands best known brands,
Greggs and Arnold Clark, also
command a strong following.

Contract Scotland Hudson Office Support Arnold Clark Barclays UK

Hudson Customer University of Edinburgh
Change TK Maxx
Operations
Hudson Accounting
Reed Accountancy s1 Scottish Gas
& Finance

SOURCE: s1jobs.com

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 s1Jobs - Scotlands Top Recruiter Follows 9
 Business Confidence
Confidence levels of small business
have always acted as a bellwether
for the wider economy.
If they seem sheepish, however,
its because smaller businesses
cant afford to take big gambles so
are constantly reacting to even the
slightest changes.
Business confidence is based on
being able to forward plan, which is
something many companies, big and
small, may have felt compromised on
because of the uncertainty that still
surrounds Brexit.
Tellingly, business confidence
among Scotlands small businesses
has fallen to the lowest level in the
UK. This is despite employment
rates and Scottish GDP growth being
higher than the UK average.
Small Business Confidence
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2014
Scotland SBI
Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017
The Scottish economy grew by 0.8%
in Q1 2017, ahead of the UK wide
growth rate of 0.2%.
SBI Q3 2017
The FSBs Small Business Index
stands at -15.2 points in Scotland
for Q3 2017. This represents a fall of Small business confidence falls to
-3.8 points from the previous quarter lowest level since wake of EU referendum
amid unprecedented uncertainty
and is the seventh consecutive
quarter to record a negative value.
Only 7% of small businesses in
Scotland plan to increase investment
over the next quarter as companies
attempt to tread water while they Most confident
await the outcome of Britains
ongoing negotiations with the EU.
Least confident
Although this figure is up slightly
from 6% in the previous quarter, it
still lags far behind the UK average
of 14%.
Q3 2014
Q1 2015
Q3 2015
Q1 2016
Q3 2016
Q1 2017
Q3 2017
UK SBI SOURCE: FSB Small Business Index
Business Confidence 10
 Consumer Spending
Graph showing the following: Rising inflation and stagnation of
YoY (from Q3 2016 to Q3 2017 wages have led to caution on the
high street it seems we Scots
are growing even more canny as
consumers.
Spending figures from the Scottish
Retail Consortium show the value
of Scottish retail sales was down
0.8% on a year earlier due to
the steepest drop in non-food
purchases since 2012.
This was despite an inflation-
driven rise in the value of
food sales.
Statistics from the Scottish
Governments Retail Sales Index
released the previous month had
shown the volume of retail sales in
Scotland remained stable between
July and September 2017 that is
with 0% growth.
On closer inspection, however,
there is difference between
businesses depending on their
size. Small and medium retail
stores actually saw a rise in
SOURCE: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubRSI)
Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017
sales volume of 0.9% while large
retail businesses saw a decrease
of 0.4%.
Over the same period, the value
of retail sales in Scotland rose
by 0.4%, meaning we spent more
money in the most recent quarter
to purchase exactly the same
amount of goods yes, thats
more on our plastic for just the
same in our basket.
Octobers figures were more
downbeat than those for the
past 12 months to the end of
September, which had painted
a slightly rosier picture. During
the year from quarter 3 2016, the
volume of sales had increased
by 0.6% in Scotland, compared
to growth of 1.5 % across Britain,
according to the ONS.
An increase in prices in Scotland
over this time period of 2.6% saw
the value of sales rise by 3.3%, so
its certainly not always a case of
shop til you drop.
Consumer Spending 11
 Movers and Shakers

Section TBC

Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017 Movers and Shakers 12

 Sign Off
I hope youve found this inaugural edition
of your s1 Guide to Employment helpful.
Having all of the latest employment
facts and figures easy to hand whenever
you need them as well as a full
breakdown of the primary insights they
offer can help you and your business
lead the conversation when it comes to
recruitment in Scotland.
Your next issue will be published as we
move into 2018 . . . and what promises to
be unchartered territory and even choppy
waters for many businesses, large and small.
This is because factors such as the
uncertainty surrounding Brexit will
Scottish Employment Index October/November 2017
undoubtedly have an impact on how we
see recruitment trends respond in the
months ahead.
Thats also why I look forward to continue
bringing you invaluable information and
industry insight in an easy-to-digest way
so you can remain informed yet focussed
on your business.
Keeping you fully up to date with all things
recruitment across Scotland: thats our job!
Gavin Mochan, s1 Sales Director
Sign Off 13