KOFORIDUA POLYTECHNIC

SCHOOL OF APPLIED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS

TOPIC

PREDICTING RAINFALL STATISTICS IN GHANA .

CASE STUDY: NEW JUABEN MUNICIPALITY

BY

FRANK ABOAYGE GYAMBRAH

(04/2007/880D)

A PROJECT WORK SUBMITED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED

MATHEMATICS, SCHOOL OF APPLIED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF
KOFORIDUA POLYTECHNIC IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT
FOR THE AWARD OF HIGHER NATIONAL DIPLOMA (HND) IN STATISTICS

JULY, 2010.

STUDENT’S DECLARATION
I declare that except for references to other people work which have been accredited, this

project work is the result of own research work carried out and no part of it has been

presented for another degree or diploma in this institution or elsewhere

SIGNATURE…………… DATE........................

ABOAGYE FRANK GYAMBRAH

(04/2007/880D)

CERTIFICATION

I hereby certify that the preparation of this project work was supervised in accordance with

the guideline on the supervision of project work laid down by Koforidua polytechnic

Signature........................... dates................................

SUPERVISOR: MR. EDWIN OKOAMPA BOADU

 ABSTRACT

The research work takes a look at predicting of rainfall statistics in Ghana a case study

of new juaben municipality.

Among the specific objective of the research is; to predict the expected average

monthly and annual rainfall in the municipality.

To determine if there exists a linear relationship between rainfall and time(years). the

institution and how it can be minimize.

They study found out that all nations’ university is using effective policies such as

using the computerized system in keeping the information.

The purposive sampling method was used to select respondents who will give data for the

research work.

It has been release that, any organization being it service or production industry needs

some form of motivation for it employees if they really want to achieve their set goals

and objectives.

It was also notice that, employees must be according to their needs.

It is recommended that money is not the only factor for motivation but recognition,

appraisal, appose, and is also powerful tools of motivation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The credit for the successful completion of this work does not come to us alone. It goes to

all who in diverse ways helped us in making it a success. To all such individuals and

corporate, we wish to express our sincere gratitude and appreciation.

Our profound gratitude goes to Almighty God for his spiritual and physical support, care

and protection.

I am also grateful to Mr. Edwin Okoampa my able supervisor.

I am also grateful to Mr. Badu Tawaih and Mrs.Theresa Badu Tawaih

Special thanks go to the management and staff, and all respondent for their cooperation in

making available useful information for our work. God bless you all.
 DEDICATION

This project is dedicated to the Almighty God for his physical and spiritual support,

guidance and protection.

This work is also dedicated to Mr. Badu Tawaih and Mrs. Theresa Badu Tawaih for their

spiritual and physical care.

Special dedication also goes to Mr. Kwaku Nuamah for his love and support during my

stay on campus.
 THE TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLEPAGE

DECLARATION……………………………………………………………. i

ABSTRACT……………………………………………………… …………… ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………... iii

DEDICATION................................................................................................ IV

CHAPTER ONE (1)

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY…………………………………………. 1

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM…………………………………… 2

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY………………………………………… 3

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS…………………………………………….. 4

1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY………………………………………………. 5

1.6 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY……………………………………….. 6

1.7 ORGANISATION OF THE STUDY………………………………….. 7

CHAPTER TWO (2)

2.0 The WEATHER …………………………………………………………………..8

2.1 CLIMATE AND SEASONS………………………………………………………….9

2.2 THE ATMOSPHERE ……………………………………………………………..10

2.3 COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE …………………………………………….

…………………………………...11

2.4WEATHER FORECASTING…………………………………………….12

2.5 SUNSHINE………………… …………………………………......14

2.7 RAIN PRECIPITATION…………………………15

GLOBAL RAINFALL PATTERNS

3.1 Types of forecasting…………………………………………………………

16 CHAPTER THREE

INTRODUCTION

…………………………………………………………….. 17

3.3 SAMPLE AND SAMPLING TECHNIQUES…………………………….. 18

3.4 SOURCES OF DATA……………………………………………………… 19

3.5 RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS………………………………………………. 20

3.5.1QUESTIONNAIRE……………………………………………………………21

3.5.2 INTERVIEWS……………………………………………………………….. 22

3.6 PROCEDURE FOR DATA COLLECTION………………………………… 23

3.7 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS…………………………………………. … 24

CHAPTER FOUR (4)

4.0 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………25

4.2 FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN ALL NATION’S

UNVERSITY……………26

4.3 ANALSIS OF RESPONSE FROM MANAGEMENT…………..27

4.4 RELEVANCE OF FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN ALL NATION

UNIVERSITY…………………………………………..28

4.5 RAING OF PERFORMANCE OF ALL NATION’S UNIERSITY IN DEALING

WITH FINANCIAL RISK ISSUES …..……………………. 29

 4.6 METHODS OF KEEPING DATA RELATING TO FINANCIAL RISK

MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES IN ALL NATION UNIVERSITY…………..30

CHAPTER FIVE (5)

5.0 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………….. 31

5.1 FINDINGS…………………………………………………. 32

5.2 CONCLUTIONS………………………………………………………………... 33

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………………………………... 34

5.4 BIBLIOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………...35
 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Man has been constantly searching his environment in an earnest quest to

have knowledge and understanding his environment in order to foretell
future events. Climatology which is the scientific study of the regular
pattern of weather conditions of a particular place also captures rainfall
and it prediction patterns. Rainfall which is the amount of rain that falls in
a particular period of time, is one of the free sources of water known to
man and can be measured by the use of Rain Gauge.

Rainfall statistics is the numerical values of rain recorded/taken at various

time periods is also very crucial to the developmental agenda of every
society or nation as a whole .These rainfall statistics can be used in the
field of economics to determine potential agricultural investment zones,
in determining the pattern of rainfall, for forecasting crop yield, vegetation
type, drought, rate of erosion and that of desertification to mention a few.
This chapter presents the background to the study, objectives of the study,
problem statement of the study, scope of the study, limitation of the study
and the organization of the study chapter.

BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

The lifeblood of every living organism, being it human or any other

creature is water, since no one can do without it. Individuals, societies,
institutions and nations at large have managed their water resources
judiciously to achieve specific objectives Rainfall plays a critical role in the
various aspects of our physical, chemical, biological processes as well as
serving as a regulator of the global environment. It is necessary and
limiting for life, also acts as the working fluid of the atmospheric heat
machinery and above all as an agent of the chemical element processes. In
this study, the focus is on prediction of rainfall statistics by employing the
use of atmospheric circulating variables such as temperature, relative
humidity, atmospheric pressure and the speed of wind as in the scientific
field of climatology. The scientific study of climatology has revealed
changes in the normal atmospheric conditions and weather patterns in the
world over.

In Ghana – West Africa climate change has affected the rainfall

pattern greatly, since 1995 the amount of rainfall recorded over the years
has reduced drastically with it associate effects of risen temperature,
drought, desertification, extinction of some plants and animal species, low
crop yield and inconsistency in the pattern of the rainfall. Ghana has about
70% of the citizenry population engaged either directly or indirectly in
rain dependent agriculture hence the need to find ways of improving
upon the climatic conditions of the country by identifying the causes of
these changes so as to rectify them thereby ensuring the welfare of the
greater lot. The forest resources of Ghana has been estimated to be
8.2million hectares in 1900 have been reduced to only 1.2million hectares
as a result of climate change (rainfall) and other activities such as bade
mining practices, illegal logging, industrialization, urbanization as well as
environmental pollution. A look at the eastern region of Ghana weather
(rainfall) patterns revealed that the region falls within the equatorial
forest zone. It experiences the double maxima rainfall pattern namely the
major and minor rainy seasons, the major rainy season starts from April
and ends in July. On the other hand, the minor rainy season starts from
September entering in October. Annual average rainfall in between
1,580mm and 1,780mm. Rainfall intensity however decreases towards the
volta basin. Mean monthly temperature ranges from as high as 30*C in the
dry season but declines to about 26*C in the wet season. The new Juaben
Municipality lies within the semi – deciduous forest zone in the Eastern
Region of Ghana. The vegetation is dense in terms of tree coverage with
most trees shedding their leaves in the dry season. Trees of economic
value like Odum, Wawa, Sapele etc. are found in the forest. This research
seeks to provide useful information and models on how to predict rainfall
statistics in the New Juaben Municipality by employing atmosphere
circulating variables. By making use of readily available data. The
atmosphere circulating variables identified are relative humidity, wind
speed, atmospheric temperature. In relation to hydrology and the
hydrology of vegetation interaction, rainfall do comes about due to the
influxes of energy and water from the land surface that rises, condenses
and upon saturation precipitates back as rain. The Koforidua
meteorological station in the New Juaben Municipality was chosen for the
study. Source: Ghana Metrological Agency, Koforidua
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

This project aims at giving a realistic view of the nature of rainfall in the
municipality. Predicting rainfall statistics in Ghana using atmosphere
circulating variable in the New Juaben Municipality as a case study is the
topic under investigation. Rainfall which comes as a result of the
precipitation of the atmospheric machinery has enormous impact on our
existence and this call for an improved and easy to digest parametric
study of the problem so as to find workable solutions to some of the
frequently asked question.

 What are the causes of rainfall in the New Juaben Municipality,

 How can the pattern of rainfall in the New Juaben municipality be
predicted.

These are just few of the unanswered questions that the study
ambitiously seeks to research into.

GENERAL AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

To develop a model that can be used to predict rainfall pattern in the

New Juaben Municipality .

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

 To predict average expected monthly and yearly rainfall statistics

in the municipality.
  To determine if there is a linear trend between annual rainfall
and time (year) in the municipality.
 To determine if there is a significant change in the amount of
annual rainfall.
 To determine if there is a change in the normal rainfall pattern in
the municipality over the 19 year period.
 To predict rainfall statistics in the municipality by using
atmosphere circulating variables.

HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY: Various hypotheses were developed to

achieve the specific objectives of the project.

Main hypothesis.

Null hypothesis: (H0) Rainfall can be predicted by using atmosphere

circulating variables.

Alternate hypothesis (H0): Rainfall statistics cannot be predicted by using

atmosphere circulating variables.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The research seeks to analyse the atmosphere circulating variables

employed in predicting rainfall statistics in the New Juaben Municipality.
It will provides adequate information on the climate of the municipality
regarding the pattern of rainfall, it effects as well as its causes. If the
information in this research is used wisely it may contribute greatly to the
socio – economic development in the municipality, how the citizenry
thinks of the meteorologically agency, the challenges confronting them
and how to improve upon their performance for the benefit of the greater
lot.

Furthermore, the study shall serve as a guide to researchers and other

people who would like to conduct further studies in the region.

LIMITATION

As a result of limited resources available for the study, the study was
restricted to New Juaben Municipality.

THE STUDYCHAPTERS ORGANIZATION

The overall research work of this project has been divided into five main
chapters. The first chapter constitutes the introductory work to the study.
This is followed by chapter two, the literature review related to the study.
Chapter three on the other hand explains the study methodology
employed. The fourth chapter deals with the analysis of the study data
while chapter five finally presents discussions, findings, conclusions, and
recommendation of the study.
 LITERATURE REVIEW

INTRODUCTION
This section of the project takes into account the literature review, associated
with the topic under consideration. It consists of main and sub sections which
provide a clear and an in-depth understanding of the concepts and definitions
relating to the projects topic.
2. THE WEATHER: The term weather describes the state of the air at a
particular place and time. The Macmillan school dictionary refers to the
weather as the conditions that exist in the atmosphere. The weather can be
warm or cold, wet or dry, and how cloudy or windy a particular place may be
in time.

2.1. CLIMATE AND SEASONS: The normal pattern of weather experienced

in a particular area over a long period of time is known as the climate. Seasons
refers to the four periods into which the year is divided into according to
weather. The climate may include four seasons in a year - spring, summer,
autumn and winter - or a wet and a dry season. The climate tells us how hot,
cold or wet it is likely to be in different parts of the world at different times of
year. Our climate depends on our position on the earth and our distance from
the sun. This accounts for the reason why tropical countries have hot climates
than countries in the Antarctic region.

2.2. THE ATMOSPHERE: The Earth is surrounded by a blanket of air called

the atmosphere. The atmosphere is made up of various gases that act as a
protective shield for the Earth and allow life to exist. Without it, we would be
burned by the intense heat of the sun during the day or frozen by the very low
temperatures at night
All the Earth's weather takes place in the lowest part of the atmosphere,
known as the troposphere. This extends upwards from ground level to about
8km at the poles and about 16km at the equator.
. 2.2.1. COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE: More than three quarters
of the atmosphere is made up of nitrogen and most of the rest is oxygen. 
However it is the remaining 1%, a mixture of carbon dioxide, water vapor and
ozone that not only produces important weather features such as cloud and
rain, but also has considerable influence on the overall climate of the Earth,
through mechanisms such as the greenhouse effect and global warming. The
atmosphere consists of five layers, held around the planet by the force of
gravity. As you move upwards through the layers, atmospheric pressure
decreases rapidly with height and the air temperature also changes. It is these,
more complicated, changes in temperature which are used to divide the
atmosphere into the layers described as follows.   Above a height of about
500km is the exosphere, a layer where the atmosphere merges into space.
Satellites are stationed in this area, 500km to 1000km from Earth.   The
thermosphere is the fourth layer in the atmosphere, between 80km and 110km
above the Earth. Space shuttles fly in this area and it is also where the aurora
lights are found. Auroras are wispy curtains of light caused when the sun
strikes gases in the atmosphere above the Poles.   Beyond the stratosphere
the air is very thin and cold. This area is known as the mesosphere, and is
found between 50km and 80km above the Earth’s surface.   The
stratosphere is the second layer of air above the Earth’s surface and extends to
a height of 50km. It is here that we find the ozone layer. The ozone layer
absorbs much of the sun’s harmful radiation that would otherwise be
dangerous to plant and animal life.   The troposphere is the layer closest
to the Earth, approximately 11km high. Weather occurs only in the troposphere
because it is this layer that contains most of the water vapor. Weather is the
way water changes in the air, and so without water there would be no clouds,
rain, snow or other weather features. The troposphere is an unstable layer
where the air is constantly moving. As a result, aircraft flying through the
troposphere may have a very bumpy ride – what is known as turbulence.
Because of this turbulence, most jet airlines fly higher above the Earth in the
stratosphere. Here the air is more still and clear as they can fly above the
clouds although the atmosphere extends to a height of 1000km, it is
nevertheless still very important for life on the surface of the Earth. 

2.3. WEATHERE FORECASTING: Although the weather is of interest to,

and affects, us all, there are specialized scientists who study the weather in
great detail. These people are known as Meteorologists and they measure and
record lots of different features of the weather, including temperature, rainfall
and wind speed and direction. By doing this and carefully studying the
weather, it is possible to forecast future rainfall occurrences. Weather experts
use computer technology and data from the stations and satellites all over the
world to predict the weather.   By carefully monitoring weather conditions it is
possible to predict when change is due. In order to do this, information is
collected on all the different weather variables from around the world.

2.4. SUNSHINE: Without the sun there would be no weather. Sunlight is the
energy which powers the world’s weather systems. By warming the air above
the Earth, the atmosphere is kept in constant motion – creating weather
features such as wind, rain, snow, hail and thunder, as well as sunshine itself.
However, this heating takes place unevenly, this variation in amount of heat
received is caused by the curved surface of the Earth. Although the sun’s rays
travel to Earth in straight parallel lines, they strike different areas of the surface
at different angles. The sun’s rays are most direct near the Equator, where they
arrive at an angle of nearly 90°. This means they are concentrated on a smaller
area and so regions around the Equator are very hot. Near the Poles, the sun’s
rays have to travel further through the atmosphere and they reach the surface at
an indirect angle. They are therefore more spread out and have to heat a wider
area, which results in the very cold conditions we find in the Arctic and
Antarctic.

RAIN PRECIPITATION: Without clouds, it would not rain. Clouds are made
up of water droplets formed when warm, moist air raises high into the sky and
cools. That water vapor in it condenses and forms what will become raindrops.
These droplets move around in the cloud and bang into each other. As they do
this, they increase in size until they are heavy enough to fall from the cloud.
Rain clouds usually have particular characteristics. They are often large, grey
clouds and appear dark because they are so large and full of water that sunlight
cannot get through them. The heaviest rain falls from the deepest, darkest
clouds which are high enough for the raindrops to develop properly.
According to James Hutton, rainfall is regulated by the humidity of the
air on the other hand, the mixing of different air current in the high
atmosphere in his book theory of the earth.

GLOBAL RAINFALL PATTERNS: Precipitation - rain, snow, sleet and hail -

is associated with areas of rising air and low pressure. When air rises it cools,
and the moisture it contains condenses out as clouds, which eventually produce
precipitation. In regions of high pressure, air is descending, the atmosphere is
stable, the skies are usually clear, and precipitation is rare.

The highest rainfall totals occur near the equator in the tropics where the strong
heating by the Sun creates significant vertical uplift of air, and the formation of
prolonged heavy showers and frequent thunderstorms. Annual rainfall totals in
the tropics usually exceed 100 inches or 2,500 millimeters, and can be as high
as 400 inches or 10,000 millimeters, particularly if influenced by the monsoons
or if mountains enhance the uplift of air.

Within the Polar Regions precipitation is low because air is too cold to contain
much water vapor. In addition, the cold heavy air descends precluding much
cloud formation. In fact, some parts of Antarctica and the Arctic are as dry as
the hot desert climate of the subtropics, where high pressure also limits cloud
formation and precipitation. Both hot and cold deserts may receive less than 10
inches or 250 millimeters of precipitation each year. Indeed, in some parts of
the subtropics, rain may not fall for several years.

The mid latitudes have moderate levels of precipitation, much of it associated

with the development of frontal depressions which form when warm
subtropical and cold polar air masses collide. On western facing coastlines,
annual precipitation may approach 100 inches or 2,500 millimeters. This
diminishes substantially within the interiors of major landmasses, particularly
the continents of North America and Asia, as the air dries and moves further
away from its ocean source of moisture.

Like temperature, patterns of rainfall shift with the seasons, and the north-
south movement of the Sun, particularly within and near the tropical rain belt.
Regions closest to the equator may experience two wet seasons and two dry
seasons. Greatest rainfall occurs at the March and September Equinoxes, when
the midday Sun over the equator is directly overhead and is at it strongest.
Away from the equator, the year may be split into single wet and dry seasons.
In the Northern Hemisphere, heaviest rain occurs in June and July, and may be
augmented by the monsoons. In the Southern Hemisphere, the wet season
occurs in December and January.

In the temperate mid-latitudes, frontal low-pressure systems dominate in

winter, and rainfall tends to be higher at this time of year, as in the UK. During
the summer, the subtropical high-pressure anticyclones expand to influence the
weather patterns. Consequently, precipitation is somewhat lower, and most
which falls is convective in nature, arising from the uplift of air during
elevated daytime heating and the generation of heavy short-lived showers and
thunderstorms.

http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/climate/Older/Rainfall_Patterns.html

2.7 Types of forecasting: Persistence Forecasting: This assumes what the

weather is doing now is, what it will continue to do.  To find out what the
weather is doing, meteorologists make weather observations. 

A thermometer measures temperature.

A barometer measures air pressure.
A rain gauge measures precipitation.
An anemometer measures wind speed.
A radiosonde attached to weatherballoon measures weather high in the
atmosphere.
A satellite orbiting Earth takes pictures of clouds from space to help us see
where and how fast clouds are moving.
A radar shoots a radio signal into a cloud to shows where precipitation is
falling and how much.  It can also spot severe storms and how fast they are
moving.
1. Eyesand earsare probably the most accurate tools.  Meteorologists all over
the world observe clouds and precipitation, and relay that information and their
measurements to other meteorologists throughout the world so we can know
how the weather is changing from place to place.

Meteorologists plot their observations on a weather map every hour to see how
fast the weather is changing, and then forecast where those changes will occur
next. 

2. Synoptic Forecasting: This method uses basic rules that the atmosphere
follows.  Meteorologists take their observations, and apply those rules to make
a short-term forecast. 

3. Statistical Forecasting: Meteorologists ask themselves, what does it usually

do this time of year? Records of average temperatures, average rainfall and
average snowfall over the years give forecasters an idea of what the weather is
"supposed to be like" at a certain time of year.

4. Computer forecasting: Forecasters take their observations and plug the

numbers into complicated equations.  Several ultra-high-speed computers run
these various equations to make computer "models" which give a forecast for
the next several days. Often, different equations produce different results, so
meteorologists must always use the other forecasting methods along with this
one.  That's why when it comes to forecasting, machines can't do it alone; you
always need humans involved.

Using all the above methods, forecasters come up with their "best guess" as to
what weather conditions will be over the next few days.

METHODOLOGY
3.0 INTRODUCTION

Ascertaining the true nature about rainfall conditions and it patterns in the new Juaben

municipality, several trips were undertaken to theme theological agency work station and

the main regional office at Koforidua. Interviews were carried out on management, staff and

customers of the agency to solicit their views on the research questions asked.

3.1 SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION

The research made use of readily available secondary data from the metrological agency

workstation…………………………………………………..

3.1.2 SECONDARY DATA

Already existing data from the metrological agency workstation concerning rainfall figures

from 1991-2009 and other relevant information were also obtained from the internet

,journals and other books to assist in drafting the entire work. The purpose of this was to

establish a more practical method for predicting rainfall statistics in the new Juaben

municipality.

3.2 RESEARCH INSTRUMENT

In some instances face to face interviews was employed in soliciting respondents view on

the various issues raised in the research work.

3.3 DATA ANALYSIS

The data collected is analyzed in such a way to attain the research objective. Mathematical

and statistical tools, such as regression and inferential and descriptive statistics were

employed in the in the data analysis processes.

CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with the analysis of the study data. It present the various
analyses that were carried out on the data obtained from the Ghana
Metrological Work Station. Koforidua and other interviews conducted.

Table 4.0: Years and their annual rainfall figures from 1991-2009
Years Rainfall Relative Index Percentage
recorded change
1991 2522.3 100 0.00
1992 1024 40.60 -59.40
1993 1430.6 139.71 39.71
1994 1098.3 76.77 -23.33
1995 1418 129.11 29.11
1996 1172 82.65 -17.35
1997 1359.6 116.01 16.01
1998 941.4 69.24 -30.76
1999 1683.1 178.79 78.79
2000 1223.3 72.68 -27.32
2001 1250 102.18 2.18
2002 1691.6 135.33 35.55
2003 1306.1 77.21 -22.79
2004 1220.2 93.42 -6.58
2005 943 77.21 -22.72
2006 1534.5 162.73 62.73
2007 1270.3 82.78 -17.22
2008 1381.5 108.75 8.75
2009 1295.9 93.80 -6.2
Source: Ghana metrological Agency Koforidua Work Station, the above data
above shows annual rainfall totals from the year 1991 to 2009 and their relative
percentage changes with respect to the previous year rainfall. The number of
years and their percentage drop in rainfall with respect to their previous years
rainfalls are as follows, 2004and 2009 below 10%,1996and 1997 between
10%-20%,1994,2000,2003 and 2005 between 20-30%,1998 between 30-
40%,1992 between 50-60%.
The years and their percentage increase in rainfall with respect to the previous
year are as follows,2001 and 2008 below 10%,1997 between 10-20%,1993
and 2002 between 30-40%,1992 between 50-60% and 2006 between 60-70%.

DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION OF ANNUAL RAINFALL AND

THEIR YEARS FROM 1991-2009.

FIGURE.4.0

Table 4.2: Years and their Monthly Rainfall Figures

Years Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Tot
2005 0.9 38.7 140.8 55.4 173.3 72.8 23.8 59.9 106.3 133.0 78.8 59.3 943
2006 72.8 92.4 190.9 150.6 246.5 258.1 44.3 26.4 192.2 171.4 68.1 20.8 1534
2007 45.7 50.2 103.3 135.6 96.5 170.0 192.1 97.0 125.2 188.5 64.1 2.1 1270
2008 6.2 14.7 100.3 171.5 277.6 167.4 143.6 210.7 61.0 117.2 23.7 87.6 1381
2009 19.5 151.2 169.1 106.6 218.5 153.1 42.8 57.6 83.4 213.9 43.9 36.3 1295
Totals 145.1 347.2 704.4 619.7 1012.4 821.4 446.6 451.6 568.1 824 278.6 206.1 6425
Mean 29.02 69.44 140.88 123.94 202.48 164.28 89.32 90.32 113.62 164.8 55.72 41.22 1285
rainfall
Source: Derived from Ghana metrological Agency Koforidua Work Station.

The table above gives figures on monthly recorded rainfall in the New Juaben
Municipality and their respective years from the year 2005-2009

ANALYSIS OF DATA OBTAINED FROM GHANA METROLOGICAL

WORK STATION KOFORIDUA.

Table 4.3
Coefficientsa

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 1495.702 168.821 8.860 .000

years underconsideration -13.961 14.807 -.223 -.943 .359

a. Dependent Variable: annual rainfall figures. Shows the SPSS output

for the coefficients model between annual rainfall and years.

Table 4.4
 ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 111102.057 1 111102.057 .889 .05a

Residual 2124394.761 17 124964.398

Total 2235496.818 18

a. Predictors: (Constant), years under-consideration ,The table shows

the SPSS output for the analysis of variance existing between annual
rainfall and years.

b. Dependent Variable: annual rainfall figures

Table 4.5
Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate

1 .223a .050 -.006 353.50304

a. Predictors: (Constant), years under-consideration, Shows the

model summary of SPSS for the predictor variable(years) and the
dependent variable annual rainfall.

By applying the regression model ,from the table 4.3

y = a + bx
Where y = the amount of rainfall recorded in a year
x = the year under the consideration
a = is the constant value of rain to be experienced each year, when x (the
year under-consideration) = 0
b = is the magnitude by which y (annual rainfall) will change when there
is a change in x (year under-consideration)
  y = 1495.702 – 13.961x
From table 4.5
r = coefficient of correlation, it measures the degree of association that
exist between dependent variable (annual rainfall) and independent
variable (years).

r = 0.223
r2 = the coefficient of determination, it explains the degree of variables
accounted for by the model
r2 = 0.05
= 5%
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
HYPOTHESIS

True hypothesis; Ho: There is no significant change in annual rainfall in the new juaben

municipality.

Alternative hypothesis; Hi: there is a significant change in annual rainfall in the New juaben

municipality.

DECISION RULE

Reject Ho if (F¿calculated > (F)tabulated at 5% level of significance.

TEST STATISTICS

(F calculated = 0.889 and ( F(1,17) tabulated=4.45

CONCLUSION
From the table 4.4 above, (calculated- F is less than F- tabulated. We therefore fail to

reject HO and conclude that statistically there is no significant change in annual rainfall in

the New Juaben municipality.

Table 4.6: Months and their Predicted rainfall figures.

Month Mean rainfall Standard Interval of
(mm) deviation of expected
rainfall monthly
rainfall (mm)
January 29.02 26.82 2.20 - 55.84
February 69.44 48.01 21.4 3 - 117.45
March 140.88 35.66 105.22 – 176.54
April 123.94 40.27 83.67 – 164.21
May 202.48 63.12 139.36 – 265.60
June 164.28 58.89 105.39 – 223.17
July 89.32 66.32 23.00 – 155.64
August 90.32 64.21 26.11 – 135.14
September 113.62 44.82 68.80 – 158.44
October 164.8 35.48 129.32 – 200.28
November 55.72 19.60 36.12 – 75.32
December 41.22 29.83 11.39 – 71.05
Source: Derived from Ghana Metrological Work Station data Koforidua ,the
table above shows the expected average rainfall figures for the various months
in the New Juaben Municipality.

Table 4.7 shows the SPSS analysis of variance for the atmosphere circulating variables,
 ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 111576.341 7 15939.477 1.447 .207a

Residual 572928.548 52 11017.857

Total 684504.888 59

a. Predictors: (Constant), relative humidity at 1500, maximum temperature, relative humidity at

0900 , relative humidity at 0600, wind speed, minimum temperature, relative humidity at 1200

b. Dependent Variable: rainfall .The

above table is the SPSS output for the
analysis of variance of the atmosphere
circulating variables for predicting rainfall.

Table 4.8 The SPSS output for the atmosphere circulating variables coefficients.
Coefficients

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta T Sig.

1 (Constant) -279.619 289.733 -.965 .339

maximum temperature 3.966 6.262 .091 .633 .529

minimum temperature -3.805 4.675 -.121 -.814 .419

wind speed -51.968 28.414 -.263 -1.829 .073

relative humidity at 0600 1.491 2.691 .074 .554 .582

relative humidity at 0900 -.213 .137 -.206 -1.554 .126

relative humidity at 1200 4.930 2.430 .392 2.029 .048

elative humidity at 1500 .110 1.574 .013 .070 .945

a. Dependent Variable: rainfall, The above

table shows the coefficient of the
atmosphere circulating variables with the
dependent variable(rainfall).

Table 4.9
 Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate

1 .404a .163 .050 104.96598

a. Predictors: (Constant), relative humidity at 1500, maximum

temperature, relative humidity at 0900 , relative humidity at 0600, wind
speed, minimum temperature, relative humidity at1200

From table 4.8 the multiple regression models for the atmosphere circulating
variable for predicting rainfall statistics in the New Juaben Municipality is
shown below.
Y=-270.619+3.966x1-3.805x2-51.968x3+1.491x4-0.213x5+4.93x6+0.110x7
X1=relative humidity at 1500,x2=maximum temperature ,x3= relative
humidity at 0900,x4=relative humidity at o600,x5=wind speed,x6= minimum
temperature and x7= relative humidity at 1200.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
HYPOTHESIS

True hypothesis; Ho: atmosphere circulating variables can be used to predict rainfall

statistics in the new Juaben Municipality. Alternative hypothesis;

Hi: atmosphere circulating variables cannot be use to predict rainfall statistics in the new

Juaben Municipality.

DECISION RULE

Reject Ho if (F¿calculated > (F) tabulated at 5% level of significance.

TEST STATISTICS

(F calculated = 1.447 and (F (7, 52)- tabulated= 4.79

CONCLUSION

From the table 4.4 above, (calculated- F is less than F- tabulated. We therefore fail to reject

Ho, and conclude that statistically atmosphere circulating variables can be used to predict

rainfall in the new juaben municipality.

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 INTRODUCTION
This section of the project work present the findings, conclusions and
recommendations relating to the study of rainfall statistics and the pattern of
rainfall in the New Juaben Municipality

5.1 FINDINGS
Based on the data gathered it reveals that the major raining season in the
municipality starts from March and ends in June. The month of May
experiences higher rainfall than any other months. The minor raining season
also starts from September and ends in October with July and August serving
as transition month for rainfall in the municipality. January is the month that
receives the lowest rainfall figures, followed by December, November,
February, July, August in an increasing order of rainfall, their mean monthly
rainfall is below 100mm. The major rain seasons consist of four months
namely March, April, May and June with a mean monthly rainfall above
100mm, With May receiving an average monthly rainfall figure above 200mm.
That of the minor season consist of two months namely September and
October, they receive rainfall figures above 100mm, with October receiving
more rainfall than September.

The annual mean rainfall expected based on the data analysis carried out is
1,285.0 ± 194.35 1090.69 – 1479.39 ≈ 1,100mm – 1500mm to the nearest
hundred.
By testing the model
Y = 1495.702 – 13.961x, at x = 0, when no year is under consideration.
Annual rainfall =1495.702 ≈ 1500mm
The regression model above has a coefficient of correlation (R) = -0.223 which
indicates that there exist a fairly weak association between time(years) and
annual rainfall recorded. This shows that annual rainfall figures shall continue
to reduce as the years increases holding all other factors constant .The model
also reveals that the expected annual rainfall figure to be approximately
1500mm to the nearest hundred is to be reduce by -13.961 with respect to the
year under consideration. All other things being constant, 107years from now,
that is the year 2117 the municipality shall experience an annual rainfall figure
of 1.88mm, implying that the municipality shall move from the forest zone into
the desert region. R2 ≈ 5% which represent the coefficient of determination,
shows that time (years) accounts for only 5% of the factors responsible for
predicting rainfall the New Juaben municipality.
The annual rainfall figures shall experience about 40-60% chance drop in
rainfall during every 5year interval.

5.2 CONCLUS IONS

 The rainfall pattern has not considerably change over the 19year’s
period in the New Juaben Municipality. The rainfall recorded is
dropping steadily with each five year interval experiencing forty (40%)
– sixty (60%) percent chance drops in rainfall figures but the drop is
statistically insignificant based on the inferential analysis carried out
above. The amount of rainfall in the New Juaben Municipality shall
continue to reduce over the years since there is a very weak linear
association existing between rainfall recorded and years.

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
Having analyzed the data collected with findings resulting from the data
obtained from the Metrological Agency work Station at Koforidua and other
interviews conducted on the citizenry, the following recommendations were
made for consideration.

 The government of the day should adequately resource the Metrological

Agency so as to carry out their mandatory obligation successfully.

 It is also recommended that there should be further training both in

service and refresher training to the employees of the Metrological
Agency.
It is also highly recommended that

 er studies should be done on the climate conditions in municipality, so

as to reveal other variables that accounts for rainfall in the New juaben
municipality.
 The municipality is recommended to be a good agricultural
investment zone due it high rate of rainfall.

CONCLUSION
It can be concluded that there has not been any significant change in both the pattern as well
as the rainfall experienced over the 19 year period. There is a high possibility of using
atmosphere circulating variables to predict rainfall in the municipality, but for now the
variables been used is not enough for accurate prediction. The New Juaben municipality is a
good agricultural region that needs to be exploited due to it high rainfall rate.

REFERENCE
Caseely ,D.J. and Lurry ,D.A.(1987) Data collection in
Developing Countries, ELBS , Clarebdon Press oxford.
furthhttp://gbcghana.com/news/25586detail.html
not enough reference