Katherine Jimenez

OPR3450-Fall 2017
Prof. Robert Blau
Final Exam

Appendix A
33.33%
HIT
$ 3,200,000
INVEST $ 3,900,000 $ 3,200,000

$ (500,000) $ 799,880.00 66.67%

48% MISS
HIT $ (400,000)
1 $ 300,000 $ (400,000)
0 $ 799,880.00

DO NOT INVEST
$ (200,000)
$ - $ (200,000)
Jorge Vera
7.69%
$ (200,000) $ 319,899.20 HIT
$ 3,200,000.00
INVEST $ 3,900,000.00 $ 3,200,000.00

$ (500,000.00) $ (123,160.00) 92.31%

52% MISS
MISS $ (400,000)
1 $ 300,000 $ (400,000)
0 $ (123,160.00)

DO NOT INVEST
$ (200,000)
0 $ (200,000)
Pre-Test
1 39.13%
0 $ 319,899.20 HIT
$ 1,450,000
INVEST $1,800,000.00 $1,450,000.00

-$275,000.00 $415,210.00 60.87%

69% MISS
HIT $ (250,000)
1 $100,000.00 -$250,000.00
0 $415,210.00

DO NOT INVEST
$ (75,000)
0 $ (75,000)
Paolo Ricci
9.68%
$ (75,000.00) $ 263,244.90 HIT
$ 1,450,000
INVEST $1,800,000.00 $1,450,000.00

-$275,000.00 -$85,440.00 90.32%

31% MISS
2 MISS $ (250,000)
$ 420,000.00 2 $100,000.00 -$250,000.00
0 $ (75,000.00)

DO NOT INVEST
$ (75,000)
0 $ (75,000)
Katherine Jimenez
OPR3450-Fall 2017
Prof. Robert Blau
Final Exam

20%
HIT
$ 3,300,000.00
INVEST $ 3,900,000.00 $ 3,300,000.00

$ (600,000.00) $ 420,000.00 80%

MISS
Jorge Vera $ (300,000.00)
1 $ 300,000.00 $ (300,000.00)
0 $ 420,000.00

DO NOT INVEST
0
0 0

1 30%
0 $ 420,000.00 HIT
No-Pre Test $ 1,475,000
INVEST $ 1,800,000 $ 1,475,000

$ (325,000.00) $ 285,000.00 70%

MISS
Paolo Ricci $ (225,000.00)
1 $ 100,000.00 $ (225,000.00)
0 $ 285,000.00

DO NOT INVEST
0
0 0
Katherine Jimenez
OPR3450-Fall 2017
Prof. Robert Blau
Final Exam

Appendix B

Probability of Success Data (Past)

Designers Hit Miss
Jorge Vera 20% 80%
Paolo Ricci 30% 70%
Probability of Success San Fracisco Pre-Testing (Nationwide)
Clothing Lines Hit Miss
Avant Garde 80% 40%
Business Attire 90% 60%

Jorge Vera's Probability Chart

Hits with Pre-Test Misses with Pre-Test
Hits Nationwide 16.00% 4.00%
Misses Nationwide 32.00% 48.00%
Total 48.00% 52.00%
Past Probability
Hits with Pre-Test Misses on Pre-Test
Hits Nationwide 33.33% 7.69%
Misses Nationwide 66.67% 92.31%

Paul Ricci's Probability Chart

Hits with Pre-Test Misses on Pre-Test
Hits Nationwide 27.00% 3%
Misses Nationwide 42.00% 28.00%
Total 69.00% 31%
Past Probability
Hits with Pre-Test Misses on Pre-Test
Hits Nationwide 39.13% 9.68%
Misses Nationwide 60.87% 90.32%