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FIELDWORK SEGMENT

PRM 2017-19

A Faculty Participant Collaborative Research (FPCR) on

Risks, Vulnerability and Coping Mechanism for Livelihood Security

Based on study in Pratappur village

Faculty Guide:

Prof. Pramod Kumar Singh

Submitted by:

Deependra Nigam (P38137)

Brihad maurya (P38135)

Aakash Neil Biswas (P38064)

Rahul Yadav (P38094)

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 CONTENTS

1. Acknowledgement..
4
2. Executive summery..
..5
3. Introduction
..
4. Objectives..

5. Locations
...
a) Pratappur...
...
i. Population..
..6
ii. Education.
.7
iii. Infrastructure.
...8
iv. Drinking water
facilities...9
v. Village economy and
livelihood..9
1. Agriculture.
..9
2. Animal
Husbandry.10
vi. Agro-climatic conditions
10
b) Lediyari..
...
i. Population..
12
ii. Education
12
iii. Infrastructure.
13
iv. Drinking water facilities
13
v. Village economy and livelihood
14
1. Agriculture.
14
2. Animal Husbandry
15

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 6. Research
Methods..
a. Fuzzy cognitive Maps introduction
16
b. Steps involved....
16
c. Maps..
.17
d. Coding....
17
e. Augmentation..
...17
f. Condensation..
17
g. Cognitive interpretative diagram..
..18

7. Analysis
.
a. Central variable-
Drought
i. Qualitative analysis
18
1. Human Assets..
...18
2. Financial assets..
19
3. Social Assets..
19
4. Physical assets..
..19
5. Natural assets..
19
ii. Analysis Network
Statistics...20
8. Conclusion....
.23

Acknowledgement

We would like to extend our gratitude to all the individuals and organizations for their efforts. We are
indebted to Institute of rural management Anand for providing us with this once in lifetime opportunity to
stay in a village and learn through the process.

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 We would also like to thank Prof Dr. Shyam Singh, Mr. Alpech Macwan for being there for us round the
clock. We would also like to thank Prof Dr. Pramod K Singh for providing us with the opportunity to work
on this project for his help throughout the process. We would also like to thank

Mr. Harpal and Mr. Jofri their help during data augmentation and analysis

We are also indebted to Gorakhpur environmental action group and our reporting officer Dr. Sheo Shankar
Verma for his support throughout the process, our host Mr. Kailash Sharma and Chandravati Sharma for
making us feel home away from home, and last but not the least the sincere gratitude to the people of
Pratappur, without them the very drawing of the project would have been a myth.

Akash Neil Biswas (P38064)

Brihad Dutt Maurya (P38135)
Deependra Nigam (P38137)
Rahul Yadav (P38094)

Executive summary

Rural sector is large in India and their households face lot of problems due to climatic risks such as low
rainfall, high temp in summer and low temp in winters, and draughts. The marginal farmers and poor
households are the one that get affected the most because of these issues and they have to fight
continuously with them. Along with climatic condition the labor market and lack of credit and insurance

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also causes problem for the families. We study the impact of such climatic changes on the households of
Pratappur village located in Gorakhpur district. To study how they cope up with all these issue we
considered people of all variety i.e. age, occupation, literacy level etc. After studying the scenarios and all
the hardship they face we came to a conclusion that various government policies need to be strengthen and
they need to work at community level to find solution of problems.

Introduction
One of most important sector of the country is agriculture. It accounts for almost 18% of the countrys
GDP and it is the means of livelihood for almost two third of the population. Even through the share of
agriculture is declining over time yet it is the single largest contributor to the GDP of the country.
Uttar Pradesh is the largest and the most populous state of the country. More than 77% of the state lives in
the rural location of its 200 million population, hence needless to say that the economy of the state is
primarily dependent on agriculture.

Based on the physical attributes and agro-climatic zones the state has been divided into nine agro climatic
regions as:
Tarai and Bhabar
Western Plain
Mid-western plain
South western dry plain
Central Plain
Budelkhand
North eastern plain
Eastern plain
Vindhyan

The agriculture of the state is analyzed on the basis of four administrative zone as Central (28 districts),
Eastern (10 Districts), western (30 districts) and Bundelkhan (7 Districts).

Objectives
The main objectives of the study are as follows
To understand the effects of climate change in the livelihood of the villagers of the location.
To collect and analyze the data about how the communities adapt to the changes.

Location

The project is conducted in three villages of Uttar Pradesh which are Pratappur, and Lediyari.

a) Pratappur- About the village

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The Village Pratappur is located 17 Km towards north of the district headquarters and 270 km from the
district capital Lucknow, in Jangal Kaudya Tehsil in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh. The village is situated in
between the banks of two rivers Rapti and Rohini, which points to a flood prone area which it indeed is.
However, since last 10 years Drought has been the primary shock of the village which has all together a
different story to tell.

Village Pratappur
Block Jungle Kaudya
Tehsil Sadar
District Gorakhpur
State Uttar Pradesh
Pin code 250103

Nearest city Gorakhpur

Distance from nearest city 18 Km

Table: 1 General information (Source: NRLM)

i) Population
The population of the village Pratappur is 2336, which comprises of 346 households. The dominant
religion being Hindu which comprises of almost 98% of the population, rest 3% of the households are
Muslims. The village boasts a healthy sex ratio of 919 females to 100 males, the average household size is
6-7 members per house. However, the according to our household survey, the average household size is 4-
5, the reason behind this is a heavy migration during last 2-3 months.

Population data

Fema l e

Mal e

Tota l popul ation

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Fig1. Population and sex distribution chart (Source Census, 2011)

There are 24 BPL households in the village according to 2011 census, however the number reduced to 18
recently.

ii) Education

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The literacy rate of Pratappur is quite high when compared to other villages of the state, however, it still
far from the national average or the state average for that matter. preference is given to the male
counterpart in the house as the household size is relatively on the higher side.

Literacy rate comparison

Ma l es Fema l es Tota l

82.14%
77.30%

74.04%
71.70%

67.70%

65.46%
60.10%

57.20%
47.60%

P rata p p u r U tt a r p ra d e s h India

Fig2. (Source: Census, 2011)

Educational infrastructure
There is only one primary school in the village which was established in 1996. The quality of the
education is subpar. Most of the villagers who sends their children to the school is for the midday meal and
the dresses. There are a total of 215 students currently with an almost equal boy to girl ratio.

Local primary school

250

200

150

100

50

0
total boys gi rl s

Fig3. (Source: Survey)

There are five female teaches in the school. There are six class rooms in the school with one stuff room for
the teachers. There is also a concrete playground in front of the school. There is one latrine and two urinals
available for the students and the teachers. There is no separate toilet available for female students. A
drinking water hand-pump is available in front of the school which is the only water source. The school
building is often taken over by the local panchayat for their works, also the building can be rented by the
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locals for functions. The number of absentees is relatively high during sowing season. There is no
government high school in the village however, the nearest high school is a kilometer away from the
village

Private Primary and high schools

There is only one high school in the village, which has a significant participation of 1675 girl students. The
school operates from standard 6th to 11th for girls. The quality of the education seems to be good which is
further attested by the fact that students travel as long as 12 km to study here. There are 23 teachers in the
school which includes 6 female teachers. There are a number of private English medium schools coming
up nearby. Most of the villagers who value education abstains from sending their ward in the government
school. The exponential increase of private schools in the location clearly depicts villagers shift of interest
towards English medium private schools.

iii) Infrastructure

Roads
The village is connected to the city Gorakhpur with a pucca road there is no pucca road inside the village.
Whole village is connected with the web of kuccha road which are not of good quality and becomes worse
after rain.

Electricity
Pratappur had basic electricity infrastructure such as Distribution Transformer and Distribution lines which
are provided in the inhabited locality as well as the Harijan Basti and hamlets. There have been significant
improvement in power supply from last year, the power supply have been increased from 10-12 to 18-20
hours a day. Most of the people in belonging to upper category and economically strong group had legal
electricity connections but in Harijan Basti most of the families used it illegally.

iv) Drinking water facilities

Drinking water infrastructure is highly compromised in the village. There are 52 hand pumps in the village
all of them are privately owned.

v) Village economy and livelihood

1) Agriculture
The village has two agreements for the farmers. One is the adhiya system where the land is divided into
parts and provided to the labor that does not have land. In this system, the labor does the farming and has
to give half of the produce and capital earned to the owner as he allowed them to use his land. The second
agreement empowers the rich farmers as they can acquire and farm on the land of the poor farmers against
the money borrowed by them.
The irrigation facilities are different for the different level of farmers, the farmers borrow the pump set
from large farmers that own them an hourly basis at a price of Rs160/hour.
The marginal farmers prefer growing crops that require less water as they are highly dependent on the
water is drawn from rivers, ponds, and rain. However, the government officials commented on the

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irrigation facility aid, that is a provision for pipelines and their free installation in villages for the farmers,
the awareness about the aid is very less among the farmers because of the lack of communication through
official channels.

Farmers in this village do not promote organic farming as they find it more time consuming instead they
abruptly use pesticide and fertilizer (urea, DAP) without even knowing the cause of it in the long term.
People in this village do not promote vegetable farming for commercial purpose though the soil and
weather condition is good for these cash crops because they require more labour and care than crops like
wheat and rice.

Prosperous farmer usually have combine machines or thrashers of their own for harvesting the crop but
marginal farmers do not have such machines as these machines costs 18 Lakh rupees so they used to rent it
from the bigger farmers or other vendors at the rate of 300Rs/hr.

In this village major crop that are produced are wheat in rabbi season and rice which is cultivated in kharif
season but now farmers are shifting to other crops like groundnut and maize because they find more
profitable. Apart from the people also grow vegetable crops for their household consumption as well as for
commercial purpose .They also grow some of the Zaid crop like Eucalyptus and Turmeric.

60%
51%
50%

40% 37%

30%

20%

10% 7%
3%
1% 1%
0%
Wheat Rice Pulses Cash Crops Til Others

Figure 4: Crop Production and Distribution (Source: BDO)

Case: Is people of the village making right use of things that are being provided?
Whenever the farmers are provided with seeds from the GEAG or government, they dont use it in farms
for the production purpose however, they use it for personal use with a mind-set that they will receive the
seeds again the next year meanwhile this can be used personally.
For example, we saw that the farmers grind the turmeric seed given to them and store it as a stock for
future use as haldi powder instead of using them for farming

2) Animal Husbandry

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Usually the local breeds that are wealthy owned the animals such as goats, buffalos etc. that are used for
rearing the land. The produce was not used for the trade purpose however; it was basically for self-
consumption. The vaccination of the animals was the responsibility of the government officials but the
schedule was not specified for the same. The animals were not insured hence the farmers relied mostly on
the veterinarians and the visiting government officials.
Many people in the village are directly dependent on cows and buffaloes for their nutrition and milk
rearing but this pose a problem during dry months of animals thereby leading to lack of nutrition. The
primary source of fodder was the farm produce.

vi) Agro climatic condition

Rainfall
Agriculture is major source of income in village, Rainfall play vital role in growth and production of the
crops and thus in livelihood of village. Proper rainfall is very important at germination and fruit
development period and any change in rainfall pattern can result in crop loss or low productivity of crops.
Village Pratappur receive an annual rainfall of around 1227 mm which is higher than the national average
of 650mm. The existing trend of rainfall in Pratappur indicates that the quantity of rainfall has increased
in recent times, but the number of days of rainfall has reduced drastically creating uncertainty in rainfall
pattern. The monsoon season starts in June and lasts till September. Pratappur Village and its
neighbourhood cities like Gorakhpur always had pleasant climatic condition, however, from some years,
there has been rapid and unexpected climate change. A difference of 340 mm of precipitation has been
observed between the driest and wettest months. This unexpected climate change have led to erratic
rainfall causing massive crop loss and reduced production of land which resulted into low income
generation in the village. The unreliable rainfall pattern have also affected the cultivation and harvesting
cycle. Due to change
in nature of rainfall most of the farmers have been now using diesel engine powered tube wells to irrigate
their crops. Ground water used to be available at 40-50 feet below ground but the excessive use of diesel
pumps over the time and unpredicted rainfall have resulted in the decreasing water level, now the water
availability is below 80-100 feet of ground. To use ground water using diesel pumps the farmers have to
bear the cost of diesel and those farmers who dont own diesel pump have to pay renting charges as well,
the per hour consumption of diesel by pumps were around 1 litre which costs Rs55-60 and the charge of
renting the diesel Pumps were Rs155-160 per day. The high charge of irrigation reduce the profit margin
of farmers on a large extent.

Data Source: http://www.hamaragorakhpur.com/content/Rainfall.aspx#

Temperature and Soil

As per the E Kppen Climate Classification, subtype for this climate is; (Humid Subtropical Climate)
in the Pratappur village. The temperature rises up to around 39.5C, while the minimum temperature
in this region is 9.5C. Pratappur falls in the eastern sector of the Indo Gangetic plain where two types of
alluvial soils are found mainly.
(i) Older alluvium (bangar)
(ii) New alluvium (khadar).

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 b) Village Lediyari

The settlement of people started in this region in around mid-1192 AD. This village is a part of Koraon
block. Koraon block is also known as bowl of rice in Allahabad district. The nearest major city/town is
Allahabad which is 62 km away. The total number of current households in the village is 1253. The village
currently has a total population of 7612. The livelihood of villagers is mostly depends on agricultural

General Scheduled Scheduled Other Backward

Caste Tribe Classes
Thakur Chamar Kol (Adivasi) Yadav
Pandit Mushahar Patel
Budwar Dhahikar Baniya
Srivastava Hela Kushwaha
(Lala)
Jain Kesharvani
Muslim Prajapati (Kumhar)
Lohar
Naai
Gupta (Teli)
activities. The village has people from all the four categories, namely, General, SC, ST and OBCs.

Climatic Conditions
Lediyari village features the typical version of a humid sub-tropical climate that is common to cities in
north-central India. Lediyari experiences three different seasons: hot dry summer, cool dry winter and
warm humid monsoon. The summer season lasts from April to June with the maximum temperatures
ranging from 40C (104 F) to 45C (113 F).
The monsoon begins in early July and lasts till September and the winter season lasts from December to
February.

a) Population

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There are a total of 1073 households in the village. The total population of the village is 6427 among
which the male population is of 3333 and the female population comprises of 3094 members. There are a
total of 346 Below Poverty Line (BPL) households in the village. This data was according to the 2011
census conducted in the village. The family size varies from 4 - 22 members in a household. The people
live in form of clusters which are spread according to the category and the sub category that a household is
a part of. For example: The entire Kushwaha community lives in a single cluster and the same is true for
other sub categories as well. The dominant castes in terms of land holding are Thakur community and
Brahmin community where as in terms of population, the dominant caste is Kesharvani.

ii) Education

Government school
The village was having one primary school. It had a total of 161 students registered, out of which 120-130
used to come regularly. There were three teachers available, out of which one was the principal in charge
of the school. The graph below shows the distribution in numbers according to the number of students who
have joined the primary school and the number of girls and boys respectively.

Private schools and degree colleges

It was observed that the number of private schools which provided education beyond primary was huge in
the village. The number of private schools turned out to be 12 in number. Same was observed from the
number of children who use to go inter-college, which provides education from class 6th to 12th. From these
observation it was clear that economically the village was at a good condition. On the basis of number of
children who are provided higher studies it was certain that the households basic demands were fulfilled.

The following table shows the number of students in one of the inter collage available in the village called
Shiv Jiyavan Inter-College. From the numbers present in the table, it was easy to say that, a village with a
population of around 6500 has school going children number 2785, which is nearly 50% of the total
population.

Boys Girls Total

SC 264 282 546

ST - - -

OBC 514 574 1088

General 557 594 1151

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Total 1335 1450 2785
 Fig5. (Source: Survey)

iii) Infrastructure

Road Transport
The road network was good. There was one highway which connected Allahabad to Rewa (MP). That
highway passes through village only. The road connectivity provided easy commute for the people
involved in business, as they use to procure goods from Allahabad and nearby districts such as Rewa and
Mirzapur. The roads which were used to connect villages from inside were rather poor in condition. Some
of those roads cant be considered as damar roads. Nearest district was Allahabad which was around 62
kilometres from the bus stand of the village.

Railway
Nearest railway stations were Allahabad Junction, which was around 65 kilometres from the bus stand of
the village. Another railway station was in Mirzapur, to reach there it can take a fair amount of 4 hours, as
the road connecting Mirzapur to the village was in poor condition.

iv) Drinking water facilities

The ground water of the village is highly polluted by the presence of the Arsenic (a heavy metal). The
consumption of such water may lead to the cancer like fatal diseases but as still now there is not any such
reporting by the villagers. A few of the people have installed the water purifier system in their homes. A
RO water supplier based out of the village sells the water in the 20 litres of the volume nondaily basis
through his own van. There are a few wells as well but are not purified with the help of certain chemicals
by the Gram Pradhan. Only after the infestation of the diseases the chemicals (mainly bleaching powder)
are sprayed around wells or mixed into the well water. The Government has helped in installation of the
hand pumps too but that is not sufficient for the whole population of the village. So most of the people had
to arrange their own hand pumps in their homes. Still after knowing the adulteration of such harmful metal
in the water people are still consuming the same water from many years. Even due to the decreasing
amount of rainfall in the subsequent years the ground water level has been declining slowly. It leads to
installation of the submersible pump at much deeper places than compared to the last year one.

v) Village economy and livelihood

1) Agriculture

The village is a part of Kuraon block which is famous for its production of rice in the region. That is why,
it is famously referred to as the bowl of rice of Allahabad district. Most farmers in the village use
chemical fertilizers rather than organic manure. And if we compare the present situation with the past
farming practices then the use of chemical fertilizers has been doubled over the years. The use of
pesticides has also been increased over the past few years. The village is mechanized with all large scale
farmers owning tractors. These farmers rent out tractors to marginal and small scale farmers for the
purpose of ploughing the land. The tractors are being rented at Rs.600 per hour. The rent of the thresher is
Rs.1000 per hour. In Kharif, the farmers grow rice which are of different quality based on factors like
consumption, availability of nearby water source or to sell in the market. In Rabi, the farmers grow wheat
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and some farmers grow moong in some part of their fields. During Zaid, the fields are left barren for the
grazing of the livestock of the village. Many villagers do cropping based on the share cropping method
called Adhiya system. In this system, the land of a large farmer is given to a landless farmer. The entire
farming from ploughing to harvesting is done by the landless farmer. The land owner pays for half the cost
of cultivation of farming which includes half the cost of seeds, ploughing, fertilizers, pesticides, manure,
harvesting and threshing. The practice of leasing out of land is also adopted by the villagers which is
called as Jamai system. In this system of farming, the land owner leases out the land to the landless farmer
on credit and takes a payment of Rs.10, 000/- per bigha from the farmer irrespective of the income that is
generated from the field.

Irrigation

Humans cannot survive without food. Crops cannot survive without water. Irrigation plays an important
role in agriculture. Rivers, ponds, submersible pumps, canals, water channels and hand pumps are the
major sources of irrigation in the villages. MGNREGS has helped in the construction of a pond in the
village. The village has 2 rivers namely Belan River which is a perennial river and Lapari River which is a
seasonal river. The village has 2 ponds out of which one is used for fishing purpose. Canals have been dug
in the village and many water channels have been made in the village. Initially farmers used clay to
construct channel from river till their farms. This process was both time consuming and less efficient
method of irrigation. Clay channel also led to wastage of water which was a major issue. Now cement
channels have been constructed and are used to irrigate farms. Now, seasonal maintenance of these
channels is required which has drastically reduced the cost for the farmers. Irrigation facilities have also
helped in the development of agricultural extension. The farmers initially had installed diesel pumps to aid
in their farming practice. But over time, as the prices if diesel grew, it became increasingly difficult for the
farmers to continue with diesel pumps. The larger farmers have now installed submersible pumps in their
fields which was a one-time investment and yields return throughout the year. Now there are four privately
owned submersible pumps and five privately owned diesel pumps in the village. There are a total of sixty
four hand pumps in the village which ensure a regular supply of water throughout the year. It can be
observed that irrigation availability played a vital role in increasing the amount of crops that can be
harvested from the same piece of land. Mechanization has also played a major role in the improvement of
yield of the crop. Adoption of some machines like tractors, threshers have led to more efficient work.
Machines have a major impact in saving the amount of time and manpower that is to be invested in the
cultivation of a crop for farmers. But despite, the availability of irrigation facilities and mechanization, the
farmers have not diversified into other crops that can be harvested. Rice and wheat remain the main crops
that are grown in this village. The major reason for that is the village has a mandi. This incentivizes the
farmers to continue growing rice and wheat which are in large demand in the government mandi.

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 Fig6. (Source: BDO, Allahabad)

2) Animal Husbandry

The milch animals like cow, buffalo, and goat are used for personal use by the villagers. There is no dairy
in the village and the villagers use the milk produced by the milch animals that they have for personal
consumption. There is one shop in the village for selling poultry products like meat and egg. Also, only
one shop is present for selling fish products. Some people are involved in poultry and fish rearing for extra
source of income but it has really not contributed to the improvement in their lives.

RESEARCH METHODS

Interviews

To gather information we conducted individual interview and group interviews. The individual interview
was conducted with the Headmaster of a school and a former Sarpanch because they can tell about the
problems faced in the village at a whole and to get the insights we conducted group interview of the
villagers as they can give insights to the prevailing issues and the problems they face in their day-to-day
activities .For the group interview, we selected random families and elders of the village as they are the
soul of the village. From these interviews, we got to know that rainfall shortage in monsoon season and the
cold winters are a major cause of low output and how it affects their livelihood.

Focus Group Discussions

We decided to conduct focus group discussions to triangulate our observations and findings. We made
groups keeping in mind the homogeneity of the village population. We created a group of former Sarpanch
and his associates, elderly and educated people of the village. In the exercise, we asked 7 questions from
the group in an open manner so that the discussion flows in an organic and accommodative way. This

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exercise was very helpful to establish our finding. After the discussion, we guided the groups to prepare
the maps under Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

a) Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Fuzzy Cognitive Map is a tool which provides the knowledge or understanding of the system in a
graphical way. The factors arising from cognitive and fuzzy logic acts a vital element of the system. These
factors are connected with a central variable through arrows containing the fuzzy values that shows the
strength of the connection between the factors. Nature depicted by the values with positive signs
represents the direct relationship between variables and negative signs represent the negative relationship
between variables. As the map is important to understand the relationship the villagers had to rate the
relationship between variables in the range of 1 to 10. However, we noticed that villagers were not
comfortable in drawing the map; we prepared the maps on their behalf as they directed.

b) Steps to FCM

Preparation of Aggregating & Condensing &

Identifying Central Triangulating
Fuzzy Cognitive Coding Individual Visual
Variable Central Variable
Map Maps Interpretation

c) Preparation of Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Village had a population of 2336 and total 349 households were there containing diverse range of caste
and category and income groups. We divided the groups on the basis of land holding, age and category
(general, OBC, SC, SC) and income groups in order to better picture of their conditions. We tried to
include more women but due to several factors not many women came to participate, even we faced
problems gathering men as well since most of them were busy in harvesting the groundnut. We started by
giving a brief introduction about the fuzzy cognitive mapping and then asked them to tell about the impact
of the Drought (Central Variable) on their lives. The discussion was guided by mainly open ended
questions. Villagers were facing difficulties in making the maps so we helped them.

d) Coding
The data thus obtained though FCM is transferred in the excel sheets. All the ratings are converted in the
scale of 0-1 while the polarities are retained. Variables depicting coping mechanism are written in red to
differentiate them with the others.

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 e) Augmentation
After the input, the maps are augmented where the variables get averaged across all the maps and one
single augmented map is generated.

Augmented map

f) Condensation
With so many variables generated, for ease of access the variables are condensed under one broader
variable.

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 Condensation of variables

g) Cognitive interpretive diagram

After augmenting and condensing, the final step is generating Cognitive interpretive diagrams using FCM
mapper tool. The maps get converted to a .net file which then run thorough Visone software to generate the
final cognitive map.

Analysis

i) Qualitative analysis of Drought

The all of the above studies done in the respective villages were related to knowing the impacts of the
drought to different points. The intensity of the effects was diverging in the nature and had different level
of impacts. These all were categorized into the following summarized points-

1) Human Asset

Human Health
The village has seen the impact on consumption level and the conditions of heat strokes because of
draught. This not only affects the people personally but also the working potential. As the potential
decreases people give less time to work which results to lack of jobs. Other factor that affects the health is
the low availability of milk that leads to deteriorating nutrition level in people.
Job Opportunities

Village is dependent on agriculture for their livelihood where they get employment. Drought too affects
farming adversely hence the people are unemployed.

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 2) Financial Assets

Drought has evidently reduced the income sources of many villagers. As mentioned earlier it had opposite
impact on the job as well.
This results into the following apparent results-

Increased Expenses
Due to negative impact over the agriculture, villagers now buy as a result food from the market, this
increase their financial burden. Rural people pay more in the division of health facilities, irrigation etc.
as compared to the previous time.
Decrease in Income due to unemployment

3) Social Assets

Drought has led to reduced posture area for animals.

Wild animal invasion also take place due to unavailability of grass land in forest.

4) Physical Assets

The physical assets of the village are also being partly affected by Drought. The fuel source is
compulsory for the proper operation of the all types of agricultural machinery as well.

Fuel sources
Almost all poor households in this village use firewood for cooking in place of the cow dung cake. In
case of the Drought, the availability of firewood slowly decreases because of the fall of older trees in
lack of water. Very few families have so far not LPG cylinder connection.

5) Natural Assets

Drought in this area has the most impact on Agriculture as the area was mostly dependent over the
farming. The FCM clearly depicts that agriculture and animal husbandry are most sensitive and hence
affected adversely.

Agricultural land

The productivity of soil has improved as compared to the last the years because of the flood in the
village .People have started complaining about how their production has fallen by more the years only
because of Droughts in the region. Coping mechanisms adopted by villagers are installation of
submersible pumps, diesel engine pumps, sowing of low water requirement crops etc.

Animal husbandry
The reduced amount of fodder availability during drought has negatively affected the health of cattle as
well as the human and which leads to reduced milk production in the milch animals.

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Fodder availability
Like all other rest of the crops Green fodder also availability reduces in case of drought. It leads to the
lower availability of fodder in the area.

ii) Analysis Network Statistics

1) Out-degree

Outdegree Outdegree
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
n s ht h al ck s n es re s n e
cto u rce ug e alt im sto u rce a to ilit ctu t on nto anc
du so Dr
o H An liv
e so fc
Fa
c u ta ve in
ro Re nd Re e rsi e a str d ap ter u sta
P r l r r
ra
l
ate ta ia Di
v
lC
a nf lA In S
tu W re
s
anc d ca e rI ura e nt
l Fo o i t t
icu Fin lih
o ed a ul rn
m
gr v e M W
gric ve
Li A Go

Out degree represents the impact of one variable over the other. In a way, out-degree represents the
number of arcs leading out from a particular vertex. In in our given case drought has the highest amount of
out-degree followed by water resources and agricultural production.

2) In-degree

Indegree
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
es ht l s es ns
n
to urc oug lth ima tock rce n
to ilit
re
tu ato to
n ce
u c e a n e s u c a c c n nan
d so Dr H A liv Reso rsif Fa tr
u pt rv
e
sta
i
ro Re nd e e as da nte u
la P ter st
a
cia
l
Di
v ar
n fr A
tI
S
r a al
C rI al
ltu W ore n an od ic te lt ur en
icu F Fi o ed a u nm
gr lih M W ric ver
iL ve g
A Go

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In-degree represents the factor which has the highest number of arcs leading to. This represents the
variable which is highly affected. In our case financial resources has the highest of in-degrees followed by
livestock, as almost every variable which are effected by drought has some effect or the other on income
and livestock.

3) Centrality

Centrality Centrality Centrality

7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
s t th al ck s es re s e
tio
n
ce gh al to ce on tu on tio
n
nc
c ou
r o u
He
i m s ou
r ati li i ti c ti n a
du es Dr An liv
e
es if
c c
str
u ta ve in
ro R nd R rs e Fa a dap nter sta
P r al e r r I u
ra
l
ate ta ci Di
v
Ca In
f
al
A
nt
S
tl u W res n d l er u r e
cu Fo na oo i ca at ul
t nm
i Fi le i h ed W ic er
gr M r
Go
v
Li v Ag

Centrality measures the importance of one variable in the system. Higher the sum of the in-degree and out-
degree of a variable higher the centrality of the variable. Here Financial resources has the highest
centrality followed by livestock and agricultural production.

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4) Cognitive interpretive diagram

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 CONCLUSION

In this VUCA world where nothing is certain we found that there are various risk such a s drought,
increased temperature in summer and variability of rainfall. As the risk varies in different areas the
difference can be seen at year to year basis as well. By the fuzzy cognitive map system we found that
drought is the biggest risk factor that leads to huge loss to farmers. The loss to farmers is not only
economical but also social, physical, and psychological. The loss of crop stars a vicious cycle. The people
dont get good food because of which their capability to work in farms decreases. There is different effect
on different families the rich families doesnt get affected so much compared to marginal farmers. Fuzzy
cognitive maps have helped in quantifying the data but there were various challenges in collecting the data
as the opinions of villagers were not honest. However, there was one drawback of our research that we
kept same question for people of different sphere which led to a bias solution and also we had to
incentivize villagers to answer our questions. To sum up I would say that we have to ready for various
consequences and strengthen the use of government incentives and schemes provided to them. Along with
government they need to change at community level and take initiatives by themselves so that some their
problems can be resolved at pace.

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