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Where to start:
Energy efficiency potential in buildings
Buildings: Session 2
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2015
2016
Energy Efficiency Training Week
Buildings: Program
1. Where to start: Understanding building energy use
2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings
3. Toolkit: Building technologies for low energy buildings
4. Toolkit: Linking buildings energy efficiency policy to investments and finance
5. Toolkit: Building energy codes and standards
6. Toolkit: Building energy efficiency policies
7. What are the steps: Set targets and develop policies
8. Did it work: Evaluating the multiple benefits of energy efficiency in buildings
9. Did it work: Tracking progress with energy efficiency indicators
10. Energy Efficiency Quiz: Understanding energy efficiency in buildings
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Energy Efficiency Training Week (Buildings)
2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Buildings Sector Energy Demand
Commercial heat
100 250
Electricity
80 200
kWh/m2
EJ
Natural gas
60 150
Solar
40 100
Biofuels
20 50 Residential intensity
0 0 Non-residential
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 intensity
Billion m2
180 200 300
100
EJ
Billion m2
100 Cooking 120 Appliances
Heating Other
Cooling 150 Floor area
Water
140
EJ
EJ
20 180 200 350
100
40 60 80 Cooking
0 140 160 180 0100
200
EJ
300
50
20 40
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
120 140 60 80
160 180 250
Billion m2
0 20 40 0
Historic100 120 6DS 140 60
160
EJ
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0 200
80 100 20 40
120 140
Global building energy consumption could increase by 50% to 2050 150
EJ
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Historic 6DS
60 80 20 0
120 100
EJ
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
without
40 assertive
60
energy efficiency
80
action.
1000
100
EJ
Historic
1990
1995
2000
2005
20 40 60 50
80
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Historic
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 02016 20 40 60 0 OECD/IEA 2016
0
0
Buildings Sector Energy Demand
Buildings Final Energy Demand in 2050 (PJ) Share of Buildings Energy Growth
Canada
(3.2) Eurasia
China
2013-2050
14
Africa
Europe 22 Japan
United
States 22 30 (5.1) 13%
Cooking
160 Lighting
Water heating
140 Space cooling
Space heating
120 2DS
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Buildings energy demand is cut by 1/3 in 2050 in the 2DS.
~60% of energy reductions coming from heating and cooling needs.
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Emissions Pathways
14
Indirect savings
12 (power sector)
Energy efficiency
10
8 Fuel switching
6
Renewables
4
2DS
2
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Buildings Code Policy Pathway 2013 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Envelope Efficiency
350
300
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Assertive building codes for new buildings are critical.
350
300
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
In a 6DS world, we would expect continued high levels of non-
compliance in construction and marginal retrofits of existing stock.
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Envelope Efficiency
Global residential floor area growth to 2050 (2DS)
400
Total Floor Area (billion m2)
350
300
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
In a 2DS world, far smaller levels of non-compliance and high levels of
deep retrofits will contribute to significant energy reductions.
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Equipment Efficiency
0.07
0.01
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Building Equipment Efficiency
Demand efficiency: building design and occupant behaviour can
have considerable impact on energy consumption.
6
Average Lighting Demand Intensity (kWh/m2)
4
Historical
3
6DS
2DS
2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: Sage Electrochromics OECD/IEA 2016
Building Equipment Efficiency
Technology efficiency: many (if not most) energy efficient building
technologies are already on the market. Additional gains for many
technologies are promising.
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Source: US DOE 2012 OECD/IEA 2016
Building Equipment Efficiency
Technology choice: many (if not most) energy efficient building
technologies are already on the market. Need the right
policy/market signals to increase adoption
100%
Equipment Share (%)
90%
80%
70%
Halogen
60%
LED
50%
CFL
40%
Fluorescent
30%
20% Incandescent
2025
2035
2045
2025
2035
2045
6DS 4DS 2DS
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency potential
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
(Scientist)
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Global energy efficiency potential
Potential to
reduce final
energy use for
space heating &
cooling through
energy
efficiency
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IPCC 2014 OECD/IEA 2016
Efficiency is not just technology
Occupant and Operator Behavior is critical: the impact of day to day
comfort and building operations decisions can have a very dramatic
impact on energy consumption
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: Tianzhen Hong, Llawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2013 OECD/IEA 2016
George E.P. Box
( Statistician)
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency potential modelling
Building Energy Performance Scenarios
Source: GBPN
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency potential modelling
Example: 3CSEP-HEB & GBPN-BEPS model
Models: 3CSEP High Efficiency Buildings model & GBPN Building Energy
Performance Scenarios model
Considers buildings as complete systems rather than sums of components
performance-based approach
Recognizes that
State-of-the-art building energy performance can be achieved through a
broad variety of designs and component combinations
Systemic gains are important when buildings are optimised to very high
energy performance, not typically captured by modelling buildings by
components
Best practice are selected from the energy performance and investment
costs perspective
Assumes that
Existing best practices become the standard (both in new construction AND
renovation) after a certain transition time #EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency OECD/IEA 2016
Energy efficiency potential modelling
Example: Modeling logic for 3CSEP-HEB
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Building Stock Accounting
Example building stock accounting, Turin (Italy)
16 480
14 420
12 360
10 300 Building
Million m2
kWh/m2
stock
8 240
6 180 Heating
intensity
4 120
2 60
0 0
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
1960-80
2005-14
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
Pre-1960
1980-2005
1980-2005
1980-2005
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
What is your building stock, and
how is it changing?
Key questions
Where is the most energy
consumption? Residential?
Urban?
What sectors are growing most
rapidly?
Do you see big increases in
certain end-uses (air-
conditioning)?
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
Data Quality
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2016
What portion of total (final) energy use is
consumed in buildings?
Buildings Share of Final Energy Consumption, 2013
Other,
6% Coal, 4%
Oil, 10%
Transport, 27%
Natural Gas, 21%
Commercial Heat, 5%
Industry, 37%
Renewables, 31%
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA World Energy Balances and Statistics, 2015 OECD/IEA 2016
Of total building energy consumption, what
portion residential? Non-residential?
Residential & Non-Residential Building Energy Use, 2013
Residential, 89 EJ Non-Residential, 35 EJ
11% 22%
30%
12%
33%
12%
44%
2%
20% 10%
4%
Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
What fraction of buildings in your country
are in urban areas? Rural areas?
Urban vs. Non-Urban Buildings Energy Demand
140
EJ
120
100
Non-Urban Buildings
80
Urban Non-Residential
60 Urban Residential
40
20
2013
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
#EnergyEfficientWorld
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 OECD/IEA 2016
Scenario
You have been asked to create new policies for
energy efficient buildings.
OECD/IEA 2016
Discussion
#EnergyEfficientWorld
OECD/IEA 2015
2016