Issue 342

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 CONTENTS FROM THE

p2 Singapore’s Latest Population Statistics

EDITOR
Welcome to the 342th edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly.
and Outlook for the Property Market
Hope you like it!
p10 Resale Property Transactions
Mr. Propwise
(December 4 – December 8)

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342
Singapore’s Latest Population Statistics and
Outlook for the Property Market
By Property Soul (guest contributor)
The best property analysis released these
days is not about the red-hot en bloc fever, or
the optimistic projection of possible growth for
the property market in 2018. The only recent
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piece of analysis that leaves much food for
thought is Ku Swee Yong’s three-part articles
on “Big Singapore Market Upgrade – Hype or
Reality?” where he questions Morgan
Stanley’s remarks that “property prices are on
track to double by 2030”.
Mr. Ku provides his personal data and
analyses to highlight three important reasons
why property prices are likely to slow going
forward (I couldn’t agree more):
1. Low population growth;
2. Home ownership rate has peaked; and
3. An aging population.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342
Slowdown in population growth
Still remember back in January 2013 when
the government released the
controversial Population White Paper and
predicted Singapore’s population would reach
6 million by 2020 and 6.9 million by 2030?
What is the latest update? Well,
the Population Trends 2017 published this
September by the Singapore Department of
Statistics shows that our total population grew
0.1 percent to 5.61 million. It is the slowest
annual growth rate since the year SARS hit
our shores in 2003.
If we continue to grow 0.1 percent every year,
Singapore’s total population will only reach
5.69 million by 2030 – a far cry from the
government’s ambitious target of 6.9 million.
If we need to have 6 million population by
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2020, from now on we must have an annual
growth rate of at least 2.2 percent, or add
126,000 more residents and foreigners every
year to this Little Red Dot.
In 2016, there are 41,251 live-births but
20,017 total deaths for the whole year. The
net increase in population is only 21,234.
With the next General Election coming in two
to three years’ time, do you think there is any
chance that the government will import
105,000 foreigners every year to fill up the
gap?
Lesson learnt: Next time when the boss sets
an ambitious target, instead of challenging
him with a heated debate, just give him a
neutral “okay let’s see” reply and let the
unrealistic goal die a natural death.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342
Housing implications: The 2017 Financial
Stability Review released by the Monetary
Authority of Singapore on November 30 said
it best:
“The development of en-bloc and GLS sites
should more than double the number of units
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available for sale in the near term. In the
medium term, the stock of private housing will
increase. With slower population growth,
there is considerable uncertainty as to
whether existing vacancies and the new
supply coming on-stream can be fully
absorbed by the market. Should there be
insufficient occupation demand for the
completed housing units, a supply imbalance
could result and place downward pressure on
prices and rentals in the medium term.”
Where have all the foreigners gone?
If we look carefully at the numbers in
population size, Singapore’s annual
population growth hovers between 1.2
percent to 2.5 percent from 2010 to 2016.
The exceptionally small increment of 0.1
percent last year is mainly due to the negative
increase of -1.6 percent for non-residents.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

A Straits Times article explains that this first

drop in 14 years is mainly due to a decline in
Work Permit holders. Foreigners on
employment passes or work permits have to
leave Singapore once they lose their jobs or
when their contracts are not renewed, so they
won’t affect our low unemployment rate and
we can have headlines like “unemployment
rate falls; incomes rise”.

The current size of permanent residents (PR)

stands at 526,600 which hasn’t changed
much for four years. This is also the
government’s intention to keep the PR
population stable after the number peaked at
541,000 in 2010.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342
Housing implications: Contrary to what
Morgan Stanley said, housing demand is not
determined by GDP, but by the
unemployment rate. High unemployment rate
affects both the sale and rental market (see
my earlier post on “Why unemployment is the
real killer in the property game”).
It is now more difficult for foreigners to get
approval for their PR status. Foreigners are
leaving the country but companies are not
adding more expatriate positions.
The Additional Buyer Stamp Duty imposed on
foreign buyers was raised to 15 percent in
January 2013. According to the Savills
November Residential Sales Briefing citing
URA’s 3rd quarter 2017 data, PRs and
foreigners purchased 1,315 resale units,
representing a 13 percent quarter-on-quarter
decline.
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In the meantime, Singaporeans are the only
hope for increase in housing demand. As Mr
Ku has pointed out, Singapore home
ownership has peaked at 90 percent and
policy makers are pushing for 100 percent
home ownership.
Locals don’t need to rent and we don’t have
enough foreigners renting. No wonder the
vacancy rate of private residential properties
still remains high at 8.4 percent.
For property buyers and investors, there is
some useful advice from MAS’s 2017
Financial Stability Review:
“Households should continue to stay
financially prudent. While household debt
growth remains in line with income growth
over the past year, households should take
into account their ability to service their debt
in the longer term.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

Potential property investors should be aware increased to 14.4 percent in 2017, compared
that the subdued rental market and further with 9.4 percent ten years ago, according
interest rate hikes could weigh on borrowers’ to an article in Straits Times.
debt servicing ability.”
Housing implications: In April, the Ministry
Low birth rate and aging population of Education announced the merging of 14
primary schools, six secondary schools and
The 2016 total live-births was 41,251 and
eight junior colleges (JCs) in 2019. Enrolment
Singapore’s resident total fertility rate falls to
in JCs has declined since 2014 due to falling
an alarming rate of 1.2. It really takes a great
birth rates, with residents born between 1993
program like SG50 and a good Dragon year
and 2002 falling 20 percent from about
once every 12 years like 2012 to push fertility
49,000 to 39,000.
rate to over 1.25.
With a declining birth rate, will “near to good
The danger is that we have no mood to make
schools” become a less important criterion
babies when times are bad. During 2003 and
one day for property buyers?
2005, Singapore only produced over 37,000
babies each year. In Japan, where deaths have outpaced births
for several years, toy manufacturers are
On the contrary, our citizen population
designing toys for the elderly – a lucrative
continues to age rapidly, with the median age
growing market compared with the shrinking
reaching 40.5 in 2017. The proportion of
demand from children.
Singapore citizens aged 65 and above has

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342
The same applies to housing demand for our
population.
According to Mr Ku, the number of “retiree
households” has jumped from 54,000 in 2008
to 95,000 in 2016, an increase of 76 percent
over 8 years. In ten years’ time, 558,000
Singaporean baby boomers will reach the
retirement age of 60. Many are likely to cash
out of their homes or prepare to downgrade
after retirement.
Kampung Admiralty, with TOP just obtained in
August, is the first retirement village in
Singapore. The two blocks of HDB flats sold
on 30-year lease were all snapped up during
the July 2014 Build-to-Order exercise. The
104 studio apartments came with elderly-
friendly fittings and a two-level medical centre
providing treatment, medical and surgical
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services for residents.
Minister Khaw Boon Wan commented that
“Kampung Admiralty is designed to fight
against loneliness, ill-health and depression
by encouraging inter-generational bonding,
social interactions and active ageing”.
What about private housing? Are developers
considering the aging population when
building new projects? Have we thought
about constructing granny houses and flats
for the elderly like Australia? How about
adding elderly-friendly home features and
common facilities?
With the changing demographics in
Singapore, the supply-demand dynamics of
the property market will be very different from
what we are seeing today.
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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

Are the consumers (tenants, homebuyers and

property investors) and industry stakeholders
(developers, builders, property agents,
mortgage brokers, etc.) prepared for the big
change?

By guest contributor Property Soul, a

successful property investor, blogger, and
author of the No B.S. Guide to Property
Investment.

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Dec 4 – Dec 8

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 614 1,228,000 2,001 99 9 VISIONCREST 1,195 2,288,888 1,916 FH
1 MARINA BAY RESIDENCES 1,130 2,220,000 1,964 99 9 THE PIER AT ROBERTSON 732 1,400,000 1,913 FH
3 THE CREST 1,518 2,932,000 1,932 99 9 THE INSPIRA 936 1,660,000 1,773 FH
3 THE CREST 1,701 3,256,000 1,914 99 9 MIRAGE TOWER 1,496 2,500,000 1,671 FH
3 ECHELON 1,572 2,750,000 1,750 99 10 ARDMORE THREE 1,787 7,460,000 4,175 FH
3 TANGLIN VIEW 1,249 1,535,000 1,229 99 10 ARDMORE THREE 1,787 6,835,360 3,825 FH
3 EMERALD PARK 1,001 1,150,000 1,149 99 10 NASSIM PARK RESIDENCES 3,175 11,165,000 3,516 FH
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 840 1,460,000 1,739 99 10 THE NASSIM 3,283 11,200,000 3,411 FH
4 THE INTERLACE 3,853 3,039,000 789 99 10 LEEDON RESIDENCE 3,789 6,400,000 1,689 FH
5 SEAHILL 861 1,350,000 1,568 99 10 THE TRESOR 2,551 3,750,000 1,470 999
5 SEAHILL 549 780,000 1,421 99 10 CORONATION GROVE 1,389 1,880,000 1,354 999
5 HUNDRED TREES 786 950,000 1,209 956 10 GLENTREES 1,345 1,738,000 1,292 999
5 ISLAND VIEW 3,498 4,000,000 1,143 FH 11 6 DERBYSHIRE 474 1,129,874 2,386 FH
5 CLEMENTIWOODS CONDOMINIUM 2,486 2,220,000 893 99 11 6 DERBYSHIRE 527 1,181,271 2,240 FH
5 FABER CREST 1,249 1,018,000 815 99 11 6 DERBYSHIRE 1,012 2,074,309 2,050 FH
8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 667 1,050,000 1,573 FH 12 REGENT RESIDENCES 409 670,000 1,638 FH
8 JOOL SUITES 624 880,000 1,410 FH 12 TREVISTA 926 1,255,000 1,356 99
8 R66 APARTMENTS 581 735,000 1,265 FH 12 SUITES @ TOPAZ 377 505,000 1,340 FH
8 KERRISDALE 1,259 1,268,000 1,007 99 12 PAPILLON 1,227 1,280,000 1,043 FH
9 RICHMOND PARK 1,733 4,700,000 2,712 FH 13 SUITES@BRADDELL 388 550,000 1,419 FH
9 LLOYD SIXTYFIVE 2,422 6,040,720 2,494 FH 13 SKY GREEN 2,207 2,580,000 1,169 FH
9 CAIRNHILL CREST 1,733 3,850,000 2,222 FH 14 REGAL 35 1,249 1,110,000 889 FH
9 SUITES AT ORCHARD 560 1,200,000 2,144 99 14 SIMS RESIDENCES 1,184 1,000,000 845 99
9 VISIONCREST 915 1,850,000 2,022 FH 14 N.A. 1,076 650,000 604 FH

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

Postal Area Transacted Price Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
15 AMBER SKYE 1,119 2,337,405 2,088 FH 18 CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM 1,130 900,000 796 99
15 RIVEREDGE 980 1,400,000 1,429 99 18 MELVILLE PARK 958 710,000 741 99
15 PARKSHORE 2,325 3,150,000 1,355 FH 18 SAVANNAH CONDOPARK 1,755 1,225,000 698 99
15 THE ODEON KATONG 926 1,250,000 1,350 FH 19 LA FIESTA 732 935,000 1,277 99
15 THE COTZ 452 600,000 1,327 FH 19 KOVAN GRANDEUR 570 670,000 1,174 99
15 PEBBLE BAY 1,378 1,690,000 1,227 99 19 LA FIESTA 1,421 1,650,000 1,161 99
15 EMERY POINT 1,302 1,520,000 1,167 FH 19 KOVAN RESIDENCES 1,270 1,450,000 1,142 99
15 COSTA RHU 2,164 2,380,000 1,100 99 19 LA DOLCE VITA 1,302 1,480,000 1,136 FH
15 CALLIDORA VILLE 1,528 1,650,000 1,079 FH 19 A TREASURE TROVE 1,206 1,260,000 1,045 99
15 MANDARIN GARDENS 732 770,000 1,052 99 19 KENSINGTON PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,668 1,700,000 1,019 999
15 MANDARIN GARDENS 1,528 1,340,000 877 99 19 PALM HAVEN 1,098 1,060,000 965 999
15 GALLERY 8 2,120 1,800,000 849 FH 19 THE QUARTZ 1,195 1,128,000 944 99
15 VILLA MARINA 2,314 1,780,000 769 99 19 SUNGLADE 1,744 1,630,000 935 99
16 OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH 861 1,033,000 1,200 99 19 KOVAN MELODY 1,055 950,000 901 99
16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,313 1,530,000 1,165 99 20 SKY VUE 797 1,188,000 1,491 99
16 OPTIMA @ TANAH MERAH 1,302 1,500,000 1,152 99 20 SKY HABITAT 1,281 1,893,893 1,479 99
16 CASA MERAH 958 1,080,000 1,127 99 20 SKY HABITAT 1,259 1,847,000 1,467 99
16 CHANGI COURT 1,163 1,080,000 929 FH 20 SKY HABITAT 1,399 2,044,700 1,461 99
16 CHANGI COURT 969 870,000 898 FH 20 SKY HABITAT 1,518 2,114,700 1,393 99
16 EAST MEADOWS 1,238 1,100,000 889 99 20 CENTRO RESIDENCES 904 1,240,000 1,371 99
16 BEDOK COURT 2,411 1,650,000 684 99 20 THOMSON GRAND 1,378 1,700,000 1,234 99
17 BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,044 775,000 742 FH 20 COUNTRY GRANDEUR 1,442 1,700,000 1,179 FH
17 LIGHTHOUSE 1,206 890,000 738 99 20 BISHAN POINT 1,270 1,380,000 1,086 99
18 DOUBLE BAY RESIDENCES 926 980,000 1,059 99 20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,200,000 1,032 99
18 WATERVIEW 786 805,000 1,024 99 20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 1,948 1,620,000 832 99
18 RIS GRANDEUR 1,292 1,190,000 921 FH 21 FLORIDIAN 1,851 3,100,000 1,674 FH
18 SAVANNAH CONDOPARK 1,453 1,320,000 908 99 21 THE STERLING 1,292 1,856,000 1,437 FH

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 SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 342

Postal Area Transacted Price

Project Name Tenure
District (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf)
21 GARDENVISTA 1,130 1,530,000 1,354 99
21 SYMPHONY HEIGHTS 926 1,070,000 1,156 FH
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,701 1,950,000 1,147 FH
21 HUME PARK II 1,130 1,250,000 1,106 FH
21 CLEMENTI PARK 1,722 1,880,000 1,092 FH
21 SPRINGDALE CONDOMINIUM 1,109 1,180,000 1,064 999
21 PARC PALAIS 1,270 1,300,000 1,023 FH
21 SOUTHAVEN II 1,539 1,525,000 991 999
23 HILLSTA 527 620,000 1,175 99
23 HILLINGTON GREEN 1,528 1,480,000 968 999
23 TREE HOUSE 1,475 1,299,200 881 99
23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,163 910,000 783 99
23 PARKVIEW APARTMENTS 1,119 828,000 740 99
26 CASTLE GREEN 1,152 955,000 829 99
27 THE ESTUARY 1,119 1,015,000 907 99
27 THE ESTUARY 1,195 1,010,000 845 99
28 H2O RESIDENCES 1,195 1,265,000 1,059 99

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property

transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.
Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser
signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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