Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling for a

variety of physiographic and climatic conditions

G. H. LEAVESLEY

To cite this article: G. H. LEAVESLEY (1989) Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling for a variety
of physiographic and climatic conditions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 34:6, 617-634, DOI:
10.1080/02626668909491371

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668909491371

Published online: 24 Dec 2009.

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 ffydrological Sciences - Journal - des Sciences Hydrologiques, 34,6, 12/1989

Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling for

a variety of physiographic and climatic
conditions*

G. H. LEAVESLEY
OS Geological Survey, PO Box 25046, MS 412, Denver Federal
Cemter, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA

Abstract Snowmelt runoff is a significant component of the hydro-

logical cycle in many regions. Major problems of snowmelt runoff
modelling associated with the physiographic and climatic conditions
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of these regions, and problem solutions being investigated, are

.reviewed. Problems -common ±o .all .regions .include: .(a) .definition of
the spatial and temporal distribution of model input; (b) measure-
ment or estimation of snow accumulation, snowmelt, and runoff
process parameters for a range of applications and scales; and (c)
development of accurate short term and long term snowmelt
runoff forecasts. Procedures being investigated to solve these
problems include: (a) integrating conventional and remote-sensing
data to improve estimates of input data; (b) developing snowmelt
process algorithms which have parameters that are closely related to
measurable basin and climatic characteristics; and (c) updating
model parameters and components using measured data or know-
ledge of past uncertainty. Research needs include development of
improved model capabilities and establishment of standardized tech-
niques and measures to evaluate model performance and results.

Problèmes rencontrées dans la mise en modèle de l'écoulement

des eaux de fonte des neiges pour certaines conditions
physiographiques et climatiques

Résumé L'écoulement des eaux de fonte est une composante

significantive du cycle hydrologique dans beaucoup de régions. On
passe en revue les problèmes majeurs que l'on rencontre en
mettant en modèle l'écoulement des eaux de fonte qui est associé
avec les conditions physiographiques et climatiques de ces régions,
et les solutions a ces problèmes qui sont à l'étude. Les problèmes
commun à toutes ces régions comprenent: (a) la définition de la
distribution spatial et temporelle des entrées dans le modèle; (b)
le mesure ou l'estimation de la quantité cumulée de la neige, de
font des neiges, et des paramètres du processus de l'écoulement
pour les applications diverses et à différentes échelles; et (c)

*Paper presented at the Workshop (HW1) on Methods of Runoff and Streamflow Simulation
Applied to Various Physiographic and Climate Conditions, held at Vancouver, British Columbia,
Canada, August 1987.

Open for discussion until 1 June 1990 617

 G. H. Leavesley 618

l'élaboration de prévisions exactes de l'écoulement des eaux de

fontes à court ou à long terme. Les methods qui sont examinées
pour résoudre ces problems comprenent: (a) l'intégration
d'informations conventionelles et de satellites pour améliorer
l'évaluation des données d'entrée; (b) la mise en point des
algorithmes du processus de fonte des neiges qui ont des para-
mètres correspondant aux les caractéristiques mesurées du bassin
et du climat; et (c) mise à jour des paramètres et des compo-
santes du modèle en utilisant les données des mesures ou la
connaissance des incertitudes dans le passé. Les besoins de la
recherche comprennent l'amélioration de la capacité des modèles
et l'établissement de techniques et de mesures standardisées pour
déterminer les performances du modèle et la valeur des résultats.
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INTRODUCTION

Snowmelt is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in many regions

of the world. Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling associated with the
climatic and physiographic conditions of these regions are functions of data
availability, regional characteristics, modelling approach, and model application.
Many of these problems are common to all models and regions, whereas
others are unique to specific models or regions. The more universal problems
are generally associated with data constraints, whereas the more unique
problems are associated with model formulation and the climatic and
physiographic characteristics of a region.
The purpose of this paper is to review a number of the problems associated
with snowmelt runoff simulation, reasons why they occur, and solutions being
used or proposed to solve these problems. The paper is not an all-inclusive review
of simulation problems, but rather it is a selected review of problems whose
solution would substantially improve snowmelt runoff modelling capabilites. Most
of these problems are functions of a number of factors that are strongly
interrelated. However, for the purpose of this paper, the problems have been
grouped as being data, region, and application related.

MODELLING APPROACHES

Basin models that simulate snowmelt runoff can be classified using a number
of model characteristics. The classification used by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) (WMO, 1986) is one of the more comprehensive. It
begins with the division of the basin model into its two major components: a
snowmelt model and a transformation model. The snowmelt model simulates
the processes of snow accumulation and melt. The transformation model
takes snowmelt and any rainfall as inputs and translates these inputs into
basin outflow.
Snowmelt and transformation models are classified further as being
either lumped or distributed. Lumped models use one set of mean basin
parameter values to define the physical and hydrological characteristics of a
 619 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

basin. Distributed models attempt to account for the spatial variability in

these features by dividing a basin into sub-areas. A separate set of parameter
values is defined for each sub-area. In practice, distributed models use one of
three general approaches to divide a basin: (a) elevation zones; (b) basin
characteristics such as slope, aspect, soils, vegetation and elevation; and (c) a
fixed or variable length, 2- or 3-dimensional grid. Model complexity and
data requirements increase substantially as one moves from the elevation zone
approach to the 3-dimensional grid approach.
Lumped and distributed snowmelt models are classified further by their use
of an energy balance approach or a temperature index approach to simulate the
snowmelt processes. The energy balance approach uses a form of the energy
balance equation for a snowpack that can be written as (US Army, 1956):
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v
m sn In c e g p q '
where
H = energy available for snowmelt;
H = net shortwave radiation;
Hln = net longwave radiation;
Hc = convective heat flux;
He = latent heat flux;
H = conduction of heat from the ground;
n = heat content of precipitation; and
n = change in energy content of the snowpack.
The minimum data requirements for application of equation (1) are
measurements of air temperature, incoming solar radiation, vapour pressure, and
wind speed (Anderson, 1976). Limits on the availability of some of these data
and on techniques to extrapolate point measurements to areal mean values have
restricted most applications of equation (1) to snowmelt studies at a point or on
small plots (Anderson, 1976; Price & Dunne, 1976; Obled & Rosse, 1977). A few
basin scale models that use equation (1) are currently being developed and tested;
these models include the Institute of Hydrology Model, IHDM (Morris, 1980)
and the Système Hydrologique Européen, SHE (Jonch-Clausen, 1979).
To work within the limits imposed by data availability on the energy
balance approach, some models use a modified version of equation (1). In
most of these models, Hsn, Hln, H and H are computed using measured
data and the remaining components are parameterized and fitted, or are
assumed to be negligible. Examples include the Precipitation Runoff
Modelling System, PRMS (Leavesley et al, 1983) and the Snowmelt Model,
MELTMOD (Leaf & Brink, 1973).
The temperature index approach is more empirical and is expressed in
the general form:
M
=Cm{Ta-Tb) (2)

where
M = snowmelt (mm);
Cm = melt factor (mm "C"1);
 G. H. Leavesley 620

T = air temperature (°C); and

Th = base temperature (°C).
C and T are assumed to integrate the effects of several of the
a
m a
individual energy-budget components in equation (1). This is a very broad
assumption and is a source of error for a variety of conditions. To minimize
this error, most temperature index models apply a number of adjustments to
Cm and T . Cm is adjusted to incorporate knowledge of the relations between
it and measurable spatial and temporal variations in basin and climate
characteristics. In distributed models, a lapse rate computation is used to
adjust T' to account for the difference between the elevation of the point of
measurement and the elevation of the zone of application.
Distributed models such as HBV (Bergstrom, 1976) and the Snowmelt
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Runoff Model, SRM (Martinec et al, 1983) use a different value of Cm in

each basin zone depending on the vegetation characteristics of the zone. The
HBV model holds each value of Cm constant for the entire melt season while
SRM varies Cm as a function of snowpack density. Other distributed models
including UBC (Quick & Pipes, 1977), CEQUEAU (Charbonneau et al,
1977), and the National Weather Service River Forecast System, NWSRFS,
(Anderson, 1973) also use different values of Cm for each basin zone, but
they vary the magnitude of Cm through the melt season to account for the
effects of seasonal variation in day length on C . The Streamflow Synthesis
and Reservoir Regulation Model, SSARR (US Army, 1975) uses an
antecedent temperature index to adjust Cm seasonally.
Though classed as a temperature index model, the NWSRFS model
actually uses a combination of equation (1) and equation (2) to compute
snowmelt. Equation (2) is used on days when no rain occurs and equation
(1) is used on days when rain occurs. When equation (1) is used, H is
assumed negligible, and Hln, Hc, Hg and H are computed using parametric
equations related to air temperature and coefficients determined from field
studies (Anderson, 1973).

DATA RELATED PROBLEMS

Many of the major problems in simulating snowmelt runoff are related to

data availability, data quality, and the ability to extrapolate accurately point
measurements to areal values. Problems associated with precipitation and air
temperature data are significant for temperature index and energy balance
models. Quantity, quality and distribution problems for solar radiation, vapour
pressure and wind also strongly affect the energy balance approach.

Precipitation

Some of the most significant data related problems are associated with the
measurement of the amount and spatial distribution of precipitation. In the
recent WMO snowmelt model study (WMO, 1986) it was concluded by all
participants that precipitation distribution assumptions and the determination of
 621 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

the form of precipitations were the most important factors in producing accurate
estimates of runoff volume. In a comparison of selected modelling approaches,
Charbonneau et al. (1981) concluded that determination of the spatial distribution
of precipitation was more important than the selection of a modelling approach.
Accurate measurements of precipitation amount are difficult because of
the effects of wind on precipitation gauge catch efficiency and redistribution
of snow on the ground. Precipitation gauge catch deficiencies for solid
precipitation can range from about 45% at a wind speed of 16 km h"1 to
more than 70% at wind speeds greater than 32 km h"1 for unshielded gauges;
a shield reduces these errors by about one third to one half (Larson & Peck,
1974). Detailed discussions of measurement accuracy and data correction
methodologies were presented by Goodison et al. (1981) and WMO (1981).
The spatial distribution of precipitation in a basin is affected by a number of
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factors that include storm type and direction, topography, and elevation. In
mountainous regions, precipitation generally increases with an increase in
elevation but spatial variations in the rate of increase may be large. In the
relatively flat terrain of prairies and steppes, the spatial distribution of
precipitation is extremely variable. Wind speed and direction, combined with
topography and land use, are the dominant distributional factors in these regions.
In-depth reviews of the snow accumulation and distribution processes in a variety
of physiographic regions and of the factors that affect these processes were
presented by Gray et al. (1979) and McKay & Gray (1981).
The simulation of precipitation distribution in most models is
accomplished using adjustment factors (Pc's), which are multiplied by point
precipitation measurements to estimate areal average precipitation depth in
associated basin zones. The magnitude of Pc incorporates the effects of
elevation, basin and storm characteristics, and errors in precipitation-gauge
catch. Most models compute an average P for each basin zone and keep it
constant for the period simulated. However, the magnitude of P may vary by
storm, month, and season. For a 1366 m change in elevation in the Wasatch
Mountains of Utah, Peck (1972) reported that the seasonal value P ranged
from 2.05 to 4.31 for the period 1916-1962. A comparable range in monthly
Pc values for 1979-1985 was calculated for an elevation difference of 1238 m
in the Weber River basin of the Wasatch Mountains, Utah (Leavesley, US
Geological Survey, unpublished data).
A number of techniques are currently being developed, evaluated, or
applied to improve the measurement and simulation of precipitation amount
and distribution. These range from increasing the quantity and quality of
point samples to increasing the area sampled using a variety of remote
sensing techniques.
One approach to improving point measures of the spatial and temporal
distribution of precipitation is increasing the number and elevation range of
meteorological stations. One such network, the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL)
network has recently been established in the western United States by the US
Soil Conservation Service (Crook, 1985). Snowpack water equivalent (SWE),
precipitation, and air temperature are measured at more than 500 sites and
the values are telemetered daily to a central data base using meteor-burst
technology. These data provide a substantial increase in high elevation
 G. H. Leavesley 622

information for precipitation and other meteorological variables, and provide the
opportunity for use in real time. In addition to SNOTEL, several large river basin
projects have expanded their meteorological data networks and provided real
time telemetry of some of these data through telephone, radio, and satellite
communication links. Examples include the Columbia River Project in the
northwestern United States (Pasteris & Hartman, 1985) and the Salt River
Project in the southwestern United States (Anderson & Ester, 1987).
Approaches to obtain areal measures of precipitation amount and spatial
distribution are being investigated using a variety of remote sensing techniques.
Snow covered area (SCA) and SWE are the properties sensed to provide these
measures. Martinec (1980) noted that the relation between SCA and basin SWE
usually is poor; however, some studies have successfully applied SCA for runoff
simulation. Seasonal runoff forecasts using satellite determined SCA were
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reported by Rango et al. (1977). The model SRM uses SCA data directly without
regard to SWE (Martinec et al., 1983). Koike et al. (1986) computed total basin
SWE for three basins in Japan using relations among altitude distribution, basin
area, and SCA. Ferguson (1986) developed a parametric model that describes the
SWE-SCA relation to enable the automatic updating of daily estimates of SCA
without the need for repeated remote sensing.
Satellite imagery is one source for computing SCA. Imagery from
LANDSAT has a resolution of 30 m but is available only every 16 days. Cloud
cover over areas of interest can further extend the period between usable images.
The GOES satellite provides images every 30 min during daylight hours but the
resolution is 1000 m. Though providing frequent coverage, the equatorial
geosynchronous orbit of the GOES satellite provides poor coverage at the higher
latitudes. The lower resolution of GOES imagery also makes discrimination
between snow covered and snow free areas difficult in dense coniferous forest
cover (Shafer, 1985). Snow cover mapping techniques using GOES imagery are
currently being used to provide near real time snow cover maps for 184 basins in
the western USA (Allen & Mosher, 1986; Allen, 1987).
Airborne gamma-ray spectrometry is a remote sensing technique for
measuring SWE. It has been applied to large open areas with low relief
where the areal distribution of snow can be extremely variable. This technique
uses the attenuation of natural background gamma radiation by snow cover as
a measure of the average SWE along a selected line of flight. The technique
has been used successfully in the USA (Carroll & Vadnais, 1980), Canada
(Carroll et al, 1983), Sweden (Bergstrom & Brandt, 1985), and the Soviet
Union (Vershinina, 1985).
Passive and active microwave sensors show potential for application to
snowmelt modelling. Microwave sensors permit observations during almost all
weather conditions; the problem of clouds that occur with imagery interpreta-
tion are thus eliminated. Passive microwave snow cover observations are
provided by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on
the Nimbus-7 satellite. Resolution of the SMMR is about 625 kmà at 37 GHz
which limits its application to large areas. In an evaluation of SMMR data for
a prairie region in Canada, Goodison et al. (1986) concluded that the spatial
resolution of SMMR data was sufficient to provide usable SWE estimates for
regions where no ground data currently exist. However, in a review of
 623 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

microwave remote sensing of snow, Foster et al. (1987) noted that gaps in
our knowledge of the effects of snowpack stratigraphy and surface roughness
on the emission at microwave frequencies and of the dielectric properties of
thawed and frozen snowpacks at all frequencies need to be resolved to use
fully the potential of this technology.
Improved estimates of the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation for
model applications may be best obtained by the joint application of two or more
of the technologies discussed above. A method to integrate conventional point
measurements with remote sensing techniques such as aerial gamma radiation
surveys and satellite measurements to estimate mean areal values of hydrological
parameters for a basin is described by Peck et al. (1985).

Air temperature
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Significant data related problems also are associated with the measurement
and estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature.
Air temperature is an important variable in energy balance and temperature
index models. It is a major component in the determination of snowmelt
rates and the form of precipitation, and thus affects simulation of snow
accumulation and melt processes.
Elevation and slope aspect affect the spatial distribution of air
temperature. Air temperature usually decreases with increasing elevation at an
average lapse rate of about 6 °C km"1. However, the variation about this
average can be quite large and is related to climatic region, season, type of
air mass and other meteorological conditions. The occurrence of an inversion
can reverse the typical lapse rate-elevation relation, which results in an
increase in air temperature with increasing elevation. A complete discussion of
lapse rates and their variability is presented by Barry (1981).
Distributed parameter models use lapse rates to extrapolate measured
air temperature to all sub-areas or elevation zones defined in the basin. Some
models use a constant lapse rate for the entire year, whereas others vary the
lapse rate by season or month. A few models compute daily lapse rates using
a high and low elevation temperature site. The use of seasonal or monthly
constants does not reflect the variability observed in daily lapse rates and can
be a source of simulation error. To minimize these errors, the constant lapse
rates are usually optimized.
A second temperature related parameter is the critical temperature, T .
Precipitation occurring at temperatures above Tc is assumed to be rain and
that occurring at temperatures below Tc is assumed to be snow. Storms that
have temperatures above and below Tc are a mixture of rain and snow. These
storms are best simulated using time steps of a few hours or less to account
for the temperature variations. However, many basins have only daily values
of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation. Apportioning
rain and snow in these situations is much more difficult. Because of
uncertainty in the spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature and in
the apportionment of rain and snow in mixed storms, Tc normally is also
optimized.
 G. H. Leavesley 624

A general lack of high elevation temperature stations in many snowmelt

areas limits the ability to estimate or compute more realistic lapse rates. A
general lack of temperature data at less than daily time steps limits improved
estimations of T' and rain-snow determinations. Additional data sources and
new analytical techniques will be required to minimize temperature related
simulation problems.
A technique to disaggregate maximum and minimum daily temperatures
to 6 h averages that uses an asymmetric harmonic function of the standard
distribution of hourly temperatures and sunrise and sunset times was reported
by Ca'Zorzi & Fontana (1986). Improved effectiveness in distinguishing snow
from rain and in correlating snowmelt processes with thermal patterns was
noted. Alternative data sources such as upper air soundings may enable
improved estimates of lapse rates. Hannaford & Howard (1975) reported
improved snowmelt simulations using 700 mbar temperatures in their
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modelling procedures.

Radiation

Hsn and Hln are dominant components of equation (1) for most snowmelt
situations. H is computed by:

Hm = Rin (1 - *) Ct (3)
where Rin is incoming solar radiation, a is snow surface albedo and Ct is the
transmission coefficient of the vegetation canopy. A major problem in the
application of equation (3) is that R} is measured at only a limited number
of sites, most of which are not in snowmelt basins.
Procedures have been developed in some operational models to estimate
daily values of Rin on a horizontal surface using daily maximum or range of
air temperature (Leaf & Brink, 1973; Leavesley et al., 1983). A procedure to
extrapolate measured or estimated values of Rjn for a horizontal surface to
the slope and aspect of each basin sub-area was developed by Swift (1976).
In the absence of measured values of Rjn, these procedures provide a means
of estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of Rin and produce
reasonably accurate snowmelt runoff simulations.
Remote sensing may provide a technique to make improved estimates of
Rin. Measures of cloud cover from sequential GOES images and computed
potential solar radiation can be used to estimate daily values of R. (Allen &
Mosher, 1986); however, additional research is needed to make this procedure
operational.
The fraction of Rin that is absorbed by the snow surface is a function of
Ct and a. C( is a function of vegetation type and canopy density, but only
limited data are available to define this relation. Miller (1959) and Vezina &
Pech (1964) reported C-cover density relations for several coniferous tree
species. However, additional research is needed to define this relation for a
variety of vegetation types.
Albedo, a, is a function of sun angle, snow surface conditions, and
 625 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

snowpack depth. Albedo decreases with time as the snow surface meta-
morphoses and accumulates deposits of impurities such as dust and vegetative
matter. These changes usually are simulated as functions of time. Relations
developed by the US Army (1956) for deep snowpacks are quite different
from those determined for shallow prairie snowpacks (Male & Gray, 1981).
Small errors in the estimation of albedo can have substantial effects on
simulated snowmelt runoff. Few direct measurements of albedo are made, but
remote sensing techniques are being investigated to obtain areal measures of
this value (Kaiser & Robock, 1985; Robinson & Kukla, 1985).
The computation of Hln involves the exchange of longwave energy
between the snowpack and a number of components that include the air,
vegetation and terrain. The longwave energy emitted from each component is
computed using the Stefan-Boltzmann law. Emissivity of all components
except the air is usually assumed to be 1.0. Emissivity of the air is a function
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of its moisture content and ranges from 0.757 to 1.0 (US Army, 1956). The
general lack of humidity data for most basins is a source of error in this
computation and necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions in estimating
the air emissivity value. Leaf & Brink (1973) and Leavesley et al. (1983)
select one of two user-defined air emissivity values depending on the
occurrence or absence of precipitation.
Current efforts to improve the measurement and application of radiation
data include studies to define better the effects of clouds, meteorological
variables, and terrain on Rin; studies to understand better and measure the
spectral, spatial, and temporal changes in surface albedo; and studies to
define better the contributions of all the components in the longwave energy
balance. A brief review of research in these areas and a list of the associated
references were presented by Dozier (1987).

Wind and vapour pressure

Wind and vapour pressure are important components in the computation of

H and H in equation (1). Turbulent heat exchange is a major snowmelt
energy source in the open prairie and alpine type environments. Forest cover
decreases the importance of this process on the snowpack below the canopy,
but the process can be a major energy source for the sublimation of
intercepted snow in the canopy.
As with radiation, wind and vapour pressure are not measured on most
basins. When they are measured, problems in the extrapolation of point to areal
average values comparable to those discussed for the other meteorological
variables occur. If energy balance models are to be applied at the full basin scale, a
better understanding of the spatial variability of wind and vapour pressure and
their relations to terrain and vegetative cover need to be developed.

REGION RELATED PROBLEMS

Some problems of snowmelt simulation are common only in certain climatic
 G. H. Leavesley 626

or physiographic regions. Many of these regional problems are strongly data

related and, thus, classification within the three general problem areas of this
paper is difficult. Some of these regional problems, such as precipitation
distribution in prairie and steppe regions and temperature lapse rate variation
in mountainous regions, were discussed above as data related problems.
Other regional problems are more closely related to simulation of regionally
dominant hydrological processes. These processes include rain-on-snow, frozen
soils and glacier mass balance and runoff.
Rain-on-snow is a process that is most prevalent in regions with a
maritime climate, but can be an important process in all regions with seasonal
snow cover. Snowmelt during rainfall can substantially increase the water
available for infiltration and runoff, which results in increased magnitudes of
flood peaks and volumes. The major source of energy for this melt is not the
rain but the turbulent transfer of latent and sensible heat (US Army, 1956).
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Thus, temperature, vapour pressure gradient and wind speed are the major
components that affect melt rates.
The energy balance approach includes these components in its melt
calculations. However, the limited availability of vapour pressure and wind
data in most climatic and physiographic regions restricts its application.
Vapour pressure and wind are not accounted for in equation (2) and as a
consequence that equation produces less accurate simulation results for
certain meteorological conditions. The combination approach developed by
Anderson (1973) attempts to correct this deficiency. It has been noted that
although this approach often functions just as well as the more physically
based energy balance approach, it can fail under some conditions such as
strong winds and high dew points (Anderson, 1976).
Regions with sustained periods of below freezing temperatures and
relatively shallow snowpacks are susceptible to the development of frozen
soils. Rapid snowmelt or rain-on-snow storms that occur on frozen soils can
produce serious flooding and erosion problems. Two major modelling
problems associated with frozen soils are simulating the freezing and thawing
processes to determine the presence or absence of frozen soils and simulating
the infiltration process in frozen soil.
A number of techniques ranging from coupled heat and moisture flow
models to temperature indices have been developed to address the frozen soil
problem. A two-dimensional heat and soil-water flow model coupled by an
isothermal phase change model was reported by Hromadka (1987).
Development and application of a one-dimensional heat and soil moisture
transfer model was reported by Engelmark (1984). However, data require-
ments and model complexity have limited the application of these types of
physical process models.
Less complex approaches have been developed to estimate the presence
of a frozen soil using air temperature, soil characteristics, and site charac-
teristics. A simple equation that describes heat flux across the soil surface
gave fair predictions of frozen soils in Washington (Cary et al, 1978). A
Continuous Frozen Ground Index (CFGI) based on mean daily air
temperature, snow depth, and two decay coefficients for time and snow depth,
was developed for use in the SSARR model (Molnau & Bissell, 1983). An
 627 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

infiltration model for frozen soil based on the soil's infiltration potential, ice
content of the soil at time of melt, and SWE was developed by Gray et al.
(1986). Coupling this infiltration model to the NWSRFS and SSARR basin
models resulted in improved simulation of streamflow from a prairie basin for
both models (Gray et al, 1986)
Though these studies indicate that work on frozen soils is ongoing,
application of most of these techniques has been limited. In the recent WMO
study (WMO, 1986), frozen soil was identified as a major problem area, but
none of the 11 models that were included in the study had the capability to
simulate frozen soils. Soil temperature and moisture data generally have not
been available for model development, testing, or verification. Advances in
our understanding of heat and moisture movement in soils and in the
collection of data to simulate these processes are needed to make simulation
of frozen soils an operational procedure.
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Glaciers are a source of streamflow from high mountain areas in

physiographic regions that range from the arctic to the tropics, and in
maritime and continental climatic regions. Glacier melt augments seasonal
snow cover melt during the peak melt period and may provide a major
component of streamflow during the melt season when the snow cover has
been depleted. Most problems associated with glacier simulation are similar to
those occurring in snowmelt simulation. However, glacier simulation has
additional problems that include storage and routing of melt water within the
glacier and mass-balance changes that can affect glacier size.
Temperature index and energy balance approach models have been used
to simulate glacier melt. A review of modelling techniques for predicting
runoff from glacierized areas was presented by Fountain & Tangborn (1985).
Improvements in glacier modelling will result from the solution of some of
the data related problems associated with snowmelt simulation and the
development of a better understanding of the physical processes associated
with the movement of liquid water within the glacier.

APPLICATION RELATED PROBLEMS

A major application of snowmelt models is the estimation of future

hydrological conditions or responses of a basin. Nëmec (1986) distinguished
between two types of estimation procedures. One type was termed
"forecasting" and the other "prediction". Forecasting was defined as the prior
estimate of future hydrological conditions and responses in real time, while
prediction was defined as the computation of data for design purposes.
Modifying these definitions slightly for purposes of this discussion, forecast
applications will be considered to include short term and seasonal estimates
of flow volumes, peaks, and timing in the current snowmelt season. Prediction
applications will be considered to include estimation of the effects of land use
and climatic changes on the hydrological conditions and response of a basin
for one or more seasons.
Forecast and prediction applications have similar problems. These
include problems associated with data quality and availability, parameter
 G. H. Leavesley 628

estimation and the effects of scale. Poor data quality produces simulation
results of limited application and prevents adequate assessment of model
performance. Limited periods of data increase the degree of uncertainty in
simulation results for data extremes outside the range of conditions used in
model calibration.
Parameter estimation is a problem in all model applications. Some
parameters are physically based and can be estimated from measurable basin
and meteorological characteristics. Many other parameters are less well
defined and are optimized or fitted. Physically based parameters provide a
larger measure of confidence in their validity and in their transportability to
other basins and times. However, many of the physical relations currently are
poorly defined or their use is very data intensive. Increased use of physically
based parameters will require an improved understanding of hydrological
processes in cold regions, development of models based on this under-
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standing, and development of cost-effective data collection techniques to

support these models.
Problems in the use of fitted parameters include limited length of historic
data record, minimal or no information on reasonable values or acceptable ranges
for parameter values, incorporation of model and data errors in parameter values
and the effects of parameter intercorrelations. Intercorrelation can produce
compensating errors which inadvertently improve the simulation. For example, an
underestimate of the degree-day factor can be compensated by an underestimate
of the lapse rate (Martinec, 1986). The result is that the correct amount of
snowmelt is simulated by two incorrect parameters.
Fitted parameters are most applicable for forecast applications, where a
continuous measure of performance is available for assessment and improve-
ment. However, in prediction applications, measured values of basin response
are never available and credibility of prediction results must be based on
measures of model performance.
For prediction applications where basin conditions are stationary,
parameters can be fitted to historic data and a split-sample test can provide a
measure of model credibility. For prediction applications to ungauged basins or
nonstationary basin conditions such as land use changes, parameters must be
estimated from regional values or values obtained from simulation of similar
conditions. Measuring the confidence in model results for such ungauged and
nonstationary basin applications is more difficult. A hierarchical scheme of
systematic testing to provide a minimal measure of confidence for stationary,
nonstationary, and ungauged basins was described by Klemes (1986).
Parameter estimation is also affected by problems of scale, both in space
and in time. As pointed out by Klemes (1983), as one moves from small
plots and hillslopes to large basin systems, different sets of physical laws
dominate at each major scale. Physical laws at a larger scale tend to express
averages or integrals of those dominant at smaller scales. Thus the transfer of
parameters between model applications needs to consider these effects as well.
Parameters estimated or fitted for small basins may not be representative for
larger basins. Likewise, time is a consideration in parameter estimation in that
parameters fitted for daily flow simulation may not be representative for
different simulation intervals.
 629 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

Forecast applications have a number of additional problems. Improve-

ments in forecast accuracy require improvements in models, data accuracy and
timeliness, and the ability to predict future meteorological conditions. Because
there always will be uncertainties in these factors, improved forecasts also will
require the development and use of procedures that decrease or minimize
these uncertainties. The most promising procedures currently take the form of
updating either the state of the modelled system or the forecast itself based
on errors calculated in the previous forecast (Dawdy, 1985).
An example of the system update approach is that of Tangborn &
Rasmussen (1977) in their seasonal forecast model. They make a short term
forecast in late winter or early spring and then adjust the basin SWE based
on the errors in this forecast. In more real time applications, a number of
other system components are candidates for updating including soil water and
groundwater storages. Updating additional components adds a number of
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levels of complexity to the update procedures, and more research in this areas
is needed.
Forecast update procedures have been applied in a number of studies.
Lettenmaier (1984) coupled the Tangborn & Rasmussen model with a one-
step linear regression forecast update model. The forecast model was updated
recursively using an autoregressive procedure so that each forecast was
adjusted for errors in the previous forecast. Vehvilainen (1986) coupled a
modified version of the HBV model to an autoregressive update procedure.
Haltiner & Salas (1985) used a somewhat different approach to forecast
updating. They reformulated the model SRM as an ARMAX (Auto
Regressive-Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs) model and estimated
model parameters using a nonlinear least squares algorithm applied either at
fixed time intervals or at selected thresholds of flow. They also examined real
time updating of model parameters using the Kalman filter approach. The
Kalman filter approach produced relatively good forecast accuracies, but
problems were noted with parameter stability and further research in the
application of the Kalman filter was suggested.
These forecast procedures use current or short term forecasts of
meteorological data to generate streamflow forecasts. An alternative approach
for longer term streamflow forecast is used in the Extended Streamflow
Prediction (ESP) procedure of the NWSRFS model (Day, 1985). Future
meteorological data for the forecast period are obtained from the historic
record. Each historic year is assumed to be a probable representation of the
future, but selected historical years can be weighted if there is knowledge that
they may be more or less likely to occur. Each data period is run through
the model using the current state of the basin system for the initial model
conditions. A probabilistic forecast then is generated from the set of
streamflow traces.
Given the wide variety of available modelling approaches and their related
problems discussed above, a major applications related problem that affects most
model users is the selection of the appropriate model for a specific application.
Problem objectives, data limitations, costs, and time available are all factors that
are considered in this decision. Some studies that compare selected models on
common basins are available for guidance. One of the most complete comparison
 G. H. Leavesley 630

studies was that reported by WMO (1986).

Though these studies enable the comparison of model accuracy in the
simulation of basin streamflow, there is only limited capability to compare the
performance of individual process components. A problem noted in the
WMO study was the interrelation of snowmelt and transformation models
which prevented the direct comparison of the different snowmelt models.
Braun & Lang (1986) addressed this problem and compared five snowmelt
models, ranging from a simple temperature index model to a modified energy
balance model, using a single common transformation model.
The large number of snowmelt models available makes model selection
difficult. One approach to simplifying model comparison and analysis has been
the development of modular designed simulation models such as PRMS
(Leavesley et al, 1983) and NWSRFS (Anderson, 1986). These models use
the concept of a master library that contains compatible subroutines that
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simulate most of the components of the hydrological cycle. Alternative or new

simulation procedures for selected process components can be compared
directly while keeping the remaining model process components the same.
Much work remains to be done to identify which simulation approaches are
best for various combinations of application problems and data constraints.
However, as this work is completed the question of which model is best will
be changed to a more appropriate question of which combination of process
components is best.
The modular concept provides a powerful operational and research
modelling tool. The use of a standard model framework and data structure
enables researchers in a variety of disciplines to develop and test model
components in their areas of expertise without having to develop the entire
model. The use of a standard set of statistical measures maintained within the
system framework provides a common basis on which to compare component
performance. Advances made in data or simulation techniques can be
incorporated directly into an operational model.
The development of improved modelling capabilities needs to be
combined with the application of new technologies to resolve problems
associated with ease of model use. Interactive programs are needed to assist
users in processing data, initiating model runs, and analysing model results
using a variety of statistical and graphical techniques. To make these
capabilities available to more users in the hydrological and water resources
community, programs need to be developed for microcomputer applications.
A few microcomputer based modelling systems have been developed
(Leavesley et al., 1987; Rango & Roberts, 1987) but the opportunity for
broader applications of these technologies is great. In addition, artificial
intelligence and expert systems are technologies that need to be developed to
assist users in the application and calibration of models. Research in these
areas is reported by Rango (1987).

CONCLUSIONS

A number of advances in snowmelt runoff simulation have been made during

 631 Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling

the past few decades. These advances resulted from an improved under-
standing of the physical processes of snowmelt and basin runoff, and the
development of new technologies in the areas of data collection and
computer technology. However, as indicated by the problems discussed above,
much work remains to be done to improve snowmelt runoff simulation
capabilites for the wide variety of climatic and physiographic conditions in
regions where snowmelt occurs.
Research needs can be categorized into five general areas of emphasis.
These are:
(a) Improvement of data measurement and extrapolation techniques. Use of
new technologies and the combined application of point and areal
measurement technologies need to be investigated. Procedures to
expedite the processing and distribution of remotely sensed data for
near real time applications need to be developed.
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(b) Development of a more physically based understanding of the hydro-

logical processes and process interactions involved in snow accumu-
lation and melt, and in basin runoff response. As noted by Beven
(1985) "the complexities of hydrological systems are such that all the
model components ultimately rely on empirical relationships". However,
when these relations are based on the physics of the process, the
parameters are more likely to be measurable or readily estimated from
climatic or basin characteristics.
(c) Development of parameter measurement and estimation techniques
that are applicable over a range of space and time scales. In conjunc-
tion with the development of physically based parameters, the
variability and applicability of these parameters at different spatial and
temporal scales needs to be determined.
(d) Improvement of forecasting techniques to include objective procedures
for updating components of the modelled system and the forecast
itself. Improvements in data quality and availability and in hydrological
process simulations will improve forecast capabilities. However, there
always will be uncertainty in these forecast elements, and techniques to
minimize this uncertainty need to be developed.
(e) Development of modular modelling system and data management shells
for developing, analysing, testing, and applying model components and
for facilitating the incorporation of advances made in (a), (b), (c) and
(d) above. Such shells provide a common framework in which to focus
multidisciplinary research efforts on the solution of a variety of
problems. Maximum use of current and future advances in the fields of
expert systems, geographical information systems, remote sensing,
information management, and computer science needs to be made in
the development of these shells.

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