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Q2 - How does President Trump intend to carry out the policy of an open and free
Indo-Pacific Region? How will China respond?
ANSWER: The essential ingredients of Trump's "open and free Into-Pacific Region"
are twofold - free and fair trade and freedom of navigation and overflight. The U.S.
National Security Strategy points to a leadership role by the U.S. in rallying allies and
partners to oppose Chinese bullying. The Quad - the U.S., Japan, India and Australia -
will form the core of this coalition.
China will push back by offering countries economic inducements and when
necessary Chinese pressure not to form an anti-China grouping. The Quad is not an
alliance and its four members have some convergence in interests but there are
differences.
Q3 - What are the security trends in South China Sea? What Vietnam should do in
this context?
ANSWER: Two trends will dominate in the South Chin aSea in 2018: China-ASEAN
negotiations on a Code of Conduct and China's continued consolidation of its
presence on its seven artificial islands, including further militarisation. China will
argue that its moves are defensive but they are aimed at the U.S. and Japanese
navies. Two developments to watch for are (1) China's deployment of a floating
nuclear reactor to the Spratly islands to provide power and (2) China deployment of
its mega-dredger either to expand existing artificial islands or build new ones.
Vietnam has few options other than to continue to engage with China while resisting
Chinese pressures affecting Vietnam's sovereignty. Vietnam must continue to
modernise its military forces and train them for joint operations. Joint operations are
between two or more services such as navy and air defence-air force. Vietnam
should ensure that it can protect its islands and oil drilling activities in the South
China Sea.
Vietnam must also continue to play a proactive role within ASEAN, particularly on
negotiations with China on a Code of Conduct. Vietnam should be firm and should
not agree to a Code of Conduct that harms its interests. Vietnam should work closely
with Singapore as both ASEAN Chair for 2018 and as ASEAN's country co-ordinator
for relations with China.
Vietnam also should continue to ensure that all of its strategic partnerships
(especially with ASEAN dialogue partners) and other partnerships are performing to
the maximum. In the case of comprehensive partnerships Vietnam should try and
raise them to a higher level.
Finally, Vietnam should continue its proactive diplomacy in all appropriate
multilateral organisations to ensure that the South China Sea remains a region of
"cooperation, security and development."
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other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.