Risk Assessment to Oudna Production

Risk assessment conducted in Lundin’s Tunis offices on the 8th Feb 2007

Risk Assessment to Oudna Production

The hazards have been classified using the following scale.

Likelihood = Low (1), Medium (2), High (3), Definite (4)

Severity = Minimum (1), Medium (2), Major (3), Maximum (4).

Severity Cost Example-Days of lost production Example-Loss of Production

1 ≤ $1 million 1 day at 20,000bpd 110 bpd for 6 months
2 ≤ $10 million 10 days at 20,000 bpd 1,100 bpd for 6 months
3 ≤ $100 million 100 days at 20,000bpd 11,000 bpd for 6 months
4 > $100 million > 100days at 20,000 bpd > 11,000 bpd for 6 months

Risk = Likelihood X Severity

Risk Matrix
Likelihood 1 2 3 4
Severity
1 1 2 3 4
2 2 4 6 8
3 3 6 9 12
4 4 8 12 16

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Risk analysis to Oudna POTENTIAL RISK
Production HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Producer
Power Fluid Path
Power fluid pump failure
Power fluid flow line failure
Power fluid flow line collapse
Power fluid flowline connector Severity
failure
Tree power fluid path blockage Severity
Tree power fluid path leakage Severity
Casing rupture
Casing leak
Power fluid quality failure
Jet pump blockage
Jet pump unlatch
Tubing Collapse
Severity 1 3 If two or more pumps go down, cannot Document failure frequency and monitor trends. Review
Likelihood 3 inject on a regular basis.
Severity 4 4 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of Review circumstances in which line could be over
Likelihood 1 production if water cut. pressured and introduce controls (if necessary).
Severity 4 8 Low reservoir pressure, high water cut Review operating procedures to ensure any scenario that
Likelihood 2 and no power fluid could lead to this could end in voiding the power fluid line are eliminated.
scenario which will end in total loss of
production.
4 4 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of No action.
Likelihood 1 production if water cut.
4 8 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of Blockage will be a result of particles in the fluid down
Likelihood 2 production if water cut. stream of the filters; debris from the pumps or corrosion!
4 4 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of As the pumps are already shedding seal material this
Likelihood 1 production if water cut. needs to be reviewed with priority and appropriate
action taken.
Severity 4 8 H2S imbrittlement of 11 ¾ “ Q125 Have a metallurgist review the power fluid chemistry to
Likelihood 2 casing causing failure and loss of well. determine acceptable H2S levels and if further
protection is required.
Severity 1 1 Casing rupture imminent. Review instrumentation to determine what the first
Likelihood 1 indicators of a leak might be. Bring to the attention of
operators.
Severity 4 12 Loss of well and loss of production. Review quality requirements, quality testing, operating
Likelihood 3 limits, training and policy and procedures are
commensurate with the high risk where quality is not
sustained. Immediately introduce H2S monitoring if not
already in place.
Severity 4 12 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of In addition to the blockage review, review the particle
Likelihood 3 production if water cut. size of the material being shed by the pumps and
determine whether these alone are enough to block the
jet pump. If yes, provide a solution.
Severity 4 4 Unable to run jet pump. Total loss of None.
Likelihood 1 production if water cut.
Severity 4 8 Total loss of production. There is a delay between the jet pump blocking and the
Likelihood 2 pump pressure monitoring equipment shutting the pump
down, leading to potentially high annular pressures.
With low reservoir pressure, a collapse scenario might
be possible. Review.

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 POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Producer
Production fluid flow path
Screen blockage Severity 4 4 Loss of production, loss of well. No action provided no fluid is planned (or unplanned) to
Likelihood 1 pass into the formation.
Screen collapse Severity 4 4 Sand production, loss of production, Monitor for sand production and collate history/trend
Likelihood 1 loss of well. lines.
Packer leak Severity 4 4 Loss of jet pump, loss of well once None
Likelihood 1 there is water production.
Tubing leak Severity 4 4 Loss of jet pump, loss of well once None except for monitoring the quality of the jet pump
Likelihood 1 there is water production. power fluid.
Tubing restriction Severity 2 2 Reduction in production and jet pump None
Likelihood 1 efficiency. Deferred production. Will
limit future well intervention work.

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 POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Producer
Reservoir
Sand production Severity 4 4 Jet pump efficiency drops and nozzle Monitor sand production and trends.
Likelihood 1 washes out. Reduced production, loss
of production, loss of well.
Scale Severity 2 2 No immediate consequences unless Ongoing programme being run by Corelab.
Likelihood 1 scale effects the screens or
intervention programme. Reduced
deliverability, formation damage.
Wax Severity 1 1 Reduction to production rate but oil is None.
Likelihood 1 not in any wax envelope. Cost of
chemicals.
Emulsion Severity 1 1 Reduction in production rate. Cost of None.
Likelihood 1 chemicals.
Hydrates Severity 1 1 Plugged lines, however not in any None.
Likelihood 1 hydrate window.
Adverse reaction from any Severity 2 2 Reduction to production rate. None.
combination of above Likelihood 1
Formation damage Severity 3 3 Reduction to production rate. None.
Likelihood 1
Unexplained loss of production Severity 2 2 Reduction to production rate. None.
Likelihood 1
Early water breakthrough. Severity 3 9 Loss of un swept oil volume. Water Monitor. Plan another well.
Likelihood 3 cut is expected, the issue is timing. A
second well would be required.
Material drop off in Jet Pump Severity 3 3 Reduction in production rate. Pump is presently performing better than expected,
performance Likelihood 1 Intervention required to replace jet hence any wear should not bring it below original
pump. expectations. No action.
Failure of pressure monitoring Severity 2 8 Unable to monitor the well and hence Equipment failed, continue with ongoing investigation.
equipment Likelihood 4 jet pump performance. Difficult
decision on what nozzles to change to
if that decision becomes necessary.
Planning!

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 POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Producer
Tree
Malfunction of hydraulic tree valve, Severity 4 4 No production. See below.
unable to open Likelihood 1
Malfunction of hydraulic tree valve, Severity 4 4 Potential to be unable to close well in. Evaluate the safety case.
unable to close and seal Likelihood 1
Malfunction of Tubing Hanger Severity 4 4 Unable to power jet pump, no Provided this valve is not cycled unnecessarily, risk is
Annulus Valve. Likelihood 1 production. low, however the likelihood of failure will increase with
usage compared with the tree valves. Review present
procedures to eliminate all valve cycling except where
the tree integrity has been compromised.
Leakage from tree Severity 4 4 Production shut in. None.
Likelihood 1
Tree integrity compromised by third Severity 2 2 Production shut in. Review marine procedures to ensure adequacy.
party (fishing vessel etc) Likelihood 1
Tree damaged Severity 4 4 Production shut in. None.
Likelihood 1
Tree Controls Damaged Severity 4 4 Production shut in or unable to control None
Likelihood 1 the well.

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 POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Injector
Water injection path
Unable to inject Severity 4 4 No reservoir pressure support, no None (provided
Cause unknown Likelihood 1 reservoir sweep.
Tree blockage Severity 4 4 No reservoir pressure support, no None.
Likelihood 1 reservoir sweep.
Tubing blockage Severity 4 4 No reservoir pressure support, no None
Likelihood 1 reservoir sweep.
Screen blockage Severity 4 4 No reservoir pressure support, no Review recycled water quality limits. Investigate any
Likelihood 1 reservoir sweep. possible effect residual oil might have on the screens.
Tree leak Severity 4 4 Shut down of water injection. None.
Likelihood 1
Tubing leak Severity 1 1 Pressure transferred to production Review monitoring procedures that might highlight this
Likelihood 1 casing. event.
Ruptured tubing Severity 1 1 Pressure transferred to production See above.
Likelihood 1 tubing along with the risks associated
with rupturing it.
Ruptured tubing & casing Severity 4 4 Shut down of water injection. None.
Likelihood 1 Probably junked well.
Injection fluid quality failure Severity 2 6 Leading to potential for corrosion, Review recycled water quality limits are commensurate
Likelihood 3 H2S and blockages. Wells junked. with life of well.
Collapsed tubing and casing Severity 4 4 Shut down of water injection, junked None
Likelihood 1 well.
Unable to keep tree valves open Severity 4 4 Unable to inject water. None
Likelihood 1
Flow Line Collapse 4 8 Unable to inject water until the flow After long periods without water injection and continued
2 line is replaced. production, the flow line could be voided. Review
procedures to eliminate this possibility.

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 POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Injector
Tree
Malfunction of hydraulic tree valve, Severity 4 4 Unable to inject water. See Production Tree.
unable to open Likelihood 1
Malfunction of hydraulic tree valve, Severity 4 4 Unable to keep flow line full if water See Production Tree recommendations.
unable to close and seal Likelihood 1 injection goes down. Collapsed flow Review procedures to cover the collapsed flow line as
line and shut down of water injection above.
plant.
Tree integrity compromised by third Severity 2 2 Shut down of water injection. See Production Tree.
party (fishing vessel etc) Likelihood 1
Tree damaged Severity 2 2 Shut down of water injection. None
Likelihood 1
Tree Controls Damaged Severity 4 4 Unable to control the tree, shut down None.
Likelihood 1 of water injection plant.

POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna Injector
Reservoir
Formation damage Severity 3 3 Possible reduction in rate of water None
Likelihood 1 injection and reservoir pressure
management.
Injection Water Charging the wrong Severity 1 1 Lack of pressure support and reservoir None
formation Likelihood 1 sweep. Drop in production rate and
recovery factor.

POTENTIAL RISK
HAZARD LEVEL CONSEQUENCES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTION

Oudna General
Loss of mooring Severity 4 4 If mooring line fails, the vessel Run a safety case to review the consequences and what
Likelihood 1 mooring loads will be transferred to to do in the event of a mooring line failure.
the tree as there are no weak links in
the flow lines.

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