Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 8

Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

FIXED NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE:


FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS 2015–2020
RUPERT WOOD

analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015
Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

About this report

This report analyses the drivers and inhibitors of fixed-line data


GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E
traffic, and forecasts the volume, type and source of that traffic
worldwide, as well as the bandwidths required to support it. Forecasts are provided for:

Our findings are based on several sources, including: Eight geographical regions 19 countries/sub-regions

Analysys Mason’s regional forecasts, and FTTx and wireless Central and Eastern Europe Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey
traffic forecasts Developed Asia–Pacific Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea
data from operators, service providers and regulators Emerging Asia–Pacific China, India, Malaysia

discussions with stakeholders – particularly operators. Latin America Brazil


Middle East and North Africa
North America USA

KEY QUESTION S AN SWER E D IN THIS R EPOR T Sub-Saharan Africa

How much traffic will there be on fixed networks? Western Europe France, Germany, Italy, Nordic region,
Spain, UK
How will that traffic be split in terms of Internet, managed IP and
multicast IPTV?
How will that traffic be split in terms of end-user devices: TVs, PCs and WHO NEEDS TO R EAD THIS R EPOR T
mobile devices?
Vendors and executives in operators’ CTO offices who are responsible for
Will next-generation access (NGA) deliver more traffic, or does the network dimensioning, because this report provides data on where and
increase in traffic drive NGA? why fixed IP traffic is generated.
How will median usage differ from the mean? Service planners and marketing teams that are considering the way
How will upstream traffic evolve? content provision should be tied to network launches and promotions.
How will busy-hour bandwidth evolve?

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 2


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

The degree of correlation between mobile usage and fixed usage was
weak at December 2014
Figure 15: Fixed Internet and mobile data usage per capita, selected countries, December 2014
3.5
Nordics
3.0
Mobile (GB per pop per month)

MORE THAN
2.5 10% MOBILE 5–10% MOBILE Hong Kong
Japan
South Korea
2.0 USA
2.5–5.0% MOBILE
1.5 Australia
Russia
1.0 UK
Malaysia Italy
Germany LESS THAN 2.5% MOBILE
0.5 Brazil Turkey
Poland Spain France
India China Romania
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Fixed (GB per pop per month)
Source: Analysys Mason

The countries with high fixed and mobile usage all have highly advanced fixed and mobile networks, but those countries with either very
high or very low proportionate mobile usage are a mixed group. Mobile data traffic exceeds 10% of total Internet traffic in only three of these
countries – India, Japan and Malaysia. In China, France and Romania, mobile data’s share remains less than 2.5%.1 The high mobile usage
in the Nordic region (particularly Finland and Sweden) and, to a lesser extent, in Australia and Russia is mainly caused by high usage of
substitutive mobile (or LTE fixed wireless) broadband. This is less common in other developed economies.

1 For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed all mobile data traffic is Internet traffic, although a small proportion is not. However, the fixed figure excludes managed IP and multicast TV.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 21


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

The largest VoD services have a dramatic effect on usage levels

Many new services, platforms and devices enable on-demand TV- Figure 22: Video’s share of IP data traffic, by device type, worldwide, 2014–2020
based viewing of TV content and films via broadband. These
services are the main new drivers of traffic, and they are 100%
supplanting in terms of traffic the longer-established free video-

Percentage of traffic
80%
hosting services such as Youku or YouTube (although some are, in
60% TVs
effect, commercial developments of these platforms). These new
services have different business models compared with longer- Mobile devices
40%
established services and their fit with local and regional PCs and other
circumstances, as well as the popularity of the content in 20%
individual markets, will define their impact on traffic.
0%
New SVoD OTT services: for example, Netflix, LeTV, iQiyi (Baidu). 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Netflix accounts for some 20–35% of total traffic in markets Source: Analysys Mason
where it has launched. Proprietary SVoD OTT services include
HBO, NOW TV (Sky), Horizon (UPC). Cloud TV is usually thought of as unicast (VoD) OTT, but there is
Catch-up FTA platforms and services such as YouView (UK FTA growing interest in linear OTT services. Some content types are
distributed mainly via ISPs). The impact on traffic of these of greater value live (such as sport, one-off events, news), and
platforms and of the services they support primarily depends some viewers do not want on-demand. For traditional
on the share of TV viewing that their broadcast counterparts broadcasters, this represents another way to extend the reach
enjoy. For example, in the UK, BBC iPlayer commands a higher of their content, and it may also be a way to deliver less popular
share of traffic than RTE Player in Ireland. channels on cable and free up capacity for DOCSIS broadband.

SVoD services using channels other than broadband. BBC It is difficult to come to a clear view of video share of traffic
iPlayer on Virgin Media, for example, uses a different portion of because of the variety of format types available (including non-
cable spectrum from DOCSIS broadband. We count this as real-time downloads). However, we assume that it will rise in
managed IP, not Internet, traffic. developed markets from 61% in 2015 to 83% by 2020.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 27


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

RECOMMENDATIONS

FORECASTS

DRIVERS AND INHIBITORS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 35


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

About the author

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Fixed Networks and Wireless Networks research programmes. His
primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and
substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and
has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the
University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 36


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

About Analysys Mason


Knowing what’s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the
complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist
knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research.

Research Consulting
We analyse, track and forecast the different Our focus is exclusively on TMT.
services accessed by consumers and
Consumer We support multi-billion dollar investments,
enterprises, as well as the software, services Regulation advise clients on regulatory matters,
infrastructure and technology and policy
Enterprise provide spectrum valuation and auction
delivering those services.
and M2M support, and advise on operational
Research clients benefit from performance, business planning
regular and timely intelligence Regional Performance and strategy.
in addition to direct access to markets improvement
our team of expert analysts. We have developed rigorous
Network methodologies that deliver tangible
Our dedicated Custom Research technologies results for clients around the world.
team undertakes specialised
and bespoke projects for clients. Telecoms Transaction
software support
For more information, please visit Strategy For more information, please visit
www.analysysmason.com/research and planning www.analysysmason.com/consulting

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015 37


Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2015–2020

Published by Analysys Mason Limited • Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 • Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001 • Email: research@analysysmason.com • www.analysysmason.com/research • Registered in England No. 5177472
© Analysys Mason Limited 2015. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any
client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.
Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the
normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark.
Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for
loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

© Analysys Mason Limited 2015