in association with

Market Bulletin 3rd September 2010

The disappointment of the Gilt Market

The Technical Trader’s view:

Long Gilt Continuous 129

128

124.95 Prior High from 2003

127 WEEK CHART
125.58 High
126
125
124 We have been one the bulls
120.96 High 123
122 of the Gilt market, and have
121
120
been disappointed by the
119 market’s failure to get above
118
117
and stay above the band of
116 Prior Highs 124.95 and
115
114
125.58.
113
112
High 112.57 111
Some would argue that it is a
110 band of such long-standing
109
108
that the market would anyway
107 have paused at that level, and
106
while marking time, oscillated
105
104 to include current levels at
103 least.
102

J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N But bears will add in addition

that the impetus from the Bull
falling wedge established
throughout 2009 and
completed in early 2010 has
been exhausted.

Look closer.

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believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
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 in association with

Long Gilt Sep 10 128.0

125,58 Prior highs
from Mar 2009 127.5 DAILY SEP 10 CHART
continuation chart
127.0

126.5

126.0

125.5 In the Sep 10 chart the short-

125.0
term bulls were alerted to the
124.95 from cont. chart Oct 2003 124.5

124.0
vulnerability of the market by
121.51 High 123.5 the upper diagonal of the bull
123.0 parallel channel.
122.5

122.0

121.5 That was good resistance.

121.0

120.5
119.89 High And the pull-back in the Sep
120.0
119.60 High
119.5
chart looks like a testing of the
119.0 long-term support.
118.5

118.0
High 116.79 250000
But that maturity is close to
200000
150000
expiry.
100000
50000

19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13
May June July August September

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Professional trading guides and recommendations for the World's markets

Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 933573
E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM
This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from sources
believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
relationship or arrangement in relation to them.
 in association with

Long Gilt Dec 10 127.0

125.58 Prior Highs from
Mar 2009 cont chart 126.5 DAILY DEC 10 CHART
126.0
In the Dec 10 chart, the
125.5
technical situation looks more
125.0
serious.
124.95 from cont. The market failed to penetrate
chart Oct 2003 124.5
High 124.49 the Pivotal band from Prior
124.0
23.6% Highs –twice.
123.5

123.0
38.2% And on the very recent pull-
122.5
back, the market has broken
50.0% 122.0 back through the June 2010
121.5 Prior High support of 124.49
61.8% 121.0 with ease.
120.5

120.0
The Fibonacci support at
150000
123.80 is relatively weak
100000 support, not at all strong
50000 enough we feel to support the
19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 multiple failures of the last six
May June July August September
days trading…
The market is very vulnerable.

Mark Sturdy
Seven Days Ahead

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Professional trading guides and recommendations for the World's markets

Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 933573
E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM
This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from sources
believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the completeness or
accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or investments purchased, sold or
held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the opinions contained herein were
considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated companies, their directors, employees,
other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this information memorandum or have a material interest,
relationship or arrangement in relation to them.