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4
CARAT

Fr i d a y, 5 t h J a n u a r y 2 0 1 8

GOLD 29250
SILVER 39190

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 Market Wrapup
Thursday, 4th January 2018

Scrip Contract Open Price High Low Close Price

Gold 05-Feb-2018 29187 29245 29061 29227

Silver 05-Mar-2018 39110 39372 38900 39279

Crude Oil 19-Jan-2018 3910 3950 3903 3924

Natural Gas 25-Jan-2018 192 195.4 184.3 184.7

Copper 28-Feb-2018 456.6 462.85 456.6 457.55

Zinc 31-Jan-2018 211.7 214.25 211.6 213.85

Lead 31-Jan-2018 163.2 164.55 162.7 163.1

Aluminium 31-Jan-2018 140.75 142.7 140.5 142

Nickel 31-Jan-2018 787.1 806.3 785.5 801

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Support & Resistance
Friday, 5th January 2018

Scrip Contract RES-2 RES-1 PIVOT SUP.1 SUP.2

Gold 05-Feb-2018 29362 29296 29178 29112 28994

Silver 05-Mar-2018 39654 39465 39182 38993 38710

Crude Oil 19-Jan-2018 3971 3946 3924 3899 3877

Natural Gas 25-Jan-2018 199.40 192.30 188.3 181.20 177.20

Copper 28-Feb-2018
465.30 461.50 459 455.25 452.80

Zinc 31-Jan-2018
215.90 214.90 213.25 212.25 210.60

Lead 31-Jan-2018
165.3 164.2 163.4 162.4 161.6

Aluminium 31-Jan-2018
143.9 142.9 141.7 140.7 139.5

Nickel 31-Jan-2018
818.40 809.70 797.6 788.90 776.80

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MCX Outlook
Friday, 5th January 2018
Precious Metals decline, Base Metals and Crude Oil steady
Precious Metals opened lower today after the FED minutes indicated a faster pace of rate hikes in 2018. Gold futures are trading at 29133, down
92 points whereas Silver is down 39095, down 205 points or 0.52%.

According to the meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic forecast and predicted a much faster pace of rate hikes in 2018.
The major factor was Trump’s reduction of taxes which the central bank believes could support the economy going ahead. The strength of the
dollar index and US equities have also pressured bullions overnight as the increased chances of rate hike reduce the bullish sentiment for
non-yielding assets like Gold and Silver. The focus today will be on ADP nonfarm report and unemployment claims both of which could forecast
a stronger labour market and put further pressure on precious metals.

Base Metals trade higher as Chinese data improves

Base Metals are trading higher today after stronger Chinese data supported the bullish sentiment in the market. Copper is trading at 461.55, up
4 points or 0.87% whereas Nickel is higher by over 1.5% at 802.60.

Base Metals are trading significantly higher today after reports from China showed that services PMI increased to 53.9 from 51.9 In December
suggesting a stronger economy and in turn boosted sentiment in the base metals market. The overall outlook for base metals remains neutral
as we expect prices to correct marginally in the coming few sessions before building the base for a potential upside. We expect downside
support for Copper at 458.50 and then further lower at 455.50 whereas resistance is seen at 463 and 466 today. Nickel is also expected to
correct further in intraday with supports coming into play at 795-790 in intraday,

Crude Oil extend gains to new highs; inventories report in focus

Crude Oil is trading with positive bias and is seen gaining 16 points or 0.38% to trade at 3919 currently. Natural Gas is up 0.30 to trade at
191.20 currently.

The API said in its weekly report that crude inventories may have declined 4.9 mln barrels along with a minor gain in gasoline and distillates
stocks. Crude Oil might come under selling pressure if the EIA report also meets its expectation. While the short-term trend continues to remain
positive in Crude Oil, prices are prone to short-term corrections as prices approach its yearly highs. On the downside, support is seen at 3900
and then further lower at 3850 whereas, on the upside, a breakout above 3950 could push prices higher to 4000 and above in the short term.

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Market News
Friday, 5th January 2018

Special News
Gold Gains In Asia As Investors Look To US Nonfarm Payrolls
Gold prices rose in Asia on Friday with US nonfarm payrolls key for the precious metal and a
reading of 190,000 new jobs added in December expected today.
Gold futures for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange
rose 0.12% to $1,323.20 a troy ounce.
Overnight, gold prices moved off session lows shrugging off the prospect of further Federal Reserve
rate hikes amid upbeat labor market data pointing to underlying strength in the US economy.
The recent rally in gold futures came under pressure amid investor concerns that continued upbeat
US economic data could strengthen the case for the Fed to raise rates more than currently priced in.
Private payrolls grew by 250,000 for December, a sharp increase from the 185,000 private jobs created in the previous month, according
to a report released Wednesday by ADP and Moody's Analytics. That beat economists’ forecast of 191,000.
Crude Oil Prices A Tad Weaker In Asia With SU Rig Count Figures Awaited
Crude oil prices eased in Asia on Friday with US rig count data ahead expected to set the tone after
last week's steady reading of 747.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for February delivery eased 0.13% to $61.93 a
barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent was quoted at $68.00.
Overnight, crude oil prices settled higher on Thursday after data showing crude stockpiles fell for the
seventh-straight week offset a larger than expected build in product inventories.
Crude oil prices' bullish start to the week continued following an Energy Information Agency (EIA)
inventory report showing crude stockpiles fell more-than-estimated but gains were capped somewhat
as both distillates and gasoline inventories rose.
Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 7.4 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 29, beating expectations of a draw of 4.7 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories – one of the products that crude is refined into – rose by 4.8 million barrels, well above expectations for a rise of
2 million barrels, while supplies of distillate – the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil – rose by 8.9 million barrels, confounding
expectations for a rise of just 500,000 barrels.

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Market News
Friday, 5th January 2018

Commodity Buzz
Support seen at 140.7 for MCX Aluminium
Technically now Aluminium is getting support at 140.7 and below same could see a test of 139.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
142.8, a move above could see prices testing 144.
Aluminium on MCX settled down -1.43% at 141.4 as higher prices for raw materials and firms cutting staff have fuelled concerns about growth.
China’s services sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in over three years in December on solid growth in new business, with the outlook
improving to a six-month high, a private sector survey showed.
The upbeat findings broadly echo those of an official gauge of the non-manufacturing sector last week that showed activity accelerated at a faster
rate in December than the previous month, reinforcing the view that an expected slowdown in the broader economy would be gradual.
China is the world's largest consumer of industrial metals and accounts for nearly half of global metal demand. The metal has been supported by
Beijing's attack on polluting industries, supply reforms and robust demand growth.
MCX Nickel may trade in range between 774.8-809.4
Technically Nickel market is getting support at 782.8 and below same could see a test of 774.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
800.1, a move above could see prices testing 809.4.
Nickel on MCX settled down 1.59% at 790.90 on profit booking as speculation are high that global refined nickel production will increase from 1.89
Mt in 20 17 to 1.92 Mt in 2018.
This uptick in production will be driven by a recovery in Chinese, Russian and Australian production following a contraction for all these major
producers over 2017 and will be aided by an improved price environment since H217.
Nickel prices are set to unwind in coming months as fundamentals loosen on the back of increased supply from Indonesia and subdued demand
from China. Refined nickel prices will continue to lose steam in the coming months as overly-optimistic demand-side expectations from electric
vehicle (EV) production begin to fade and fundamentals loosen.
A significant rally in prices took nickel from below 9 000/ton in June 2017 to above 13 000/ton in early November 2017, buoyed by a positive
demand outlook for use in batteries for the growing electric vehicle market.

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Analyst Speaks
Friday, 5th January 2018

Gold MCX

Technically Gold market is getting support at 299112 and below same could
see a test of 28994 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29296, RESISTANCE 2 29362
a move above could see prices testing 29362.

RESISTANCE 1 29296

PIVOT 29178

BUY GOLD FEB AROUND 29240-29250 SUPPORT 1 29112

TGTS 29350/29450 SL 29140
SUPPORT 2 28994

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Analyst Speaks
Friday, 5th January 2018

CRUDE OIL MCX

Technically Crude Oil market is getting support at 3899 and below same
could see a test of 3877 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at RESISTANCE 2 3971
3946, a move above could see prices testing 3971.
RESISTANCE 1 3946

PIVOT 3924

BUY CRUDE OIL JAN AROUND 3910-3915 SUPPORT 1 3899

TGTS 3945/3975 SL 3890 SUPPORT 2 3877

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Today’s Economic Events
Friday, 5th January 2018

COUNTRY TIME EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS

7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2%

Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 228K

USD Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%

8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.6 57.4

11:00pm FOMC Member Mester Speaks

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24 Carat Commodity Research Team

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