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Amir Hayat
Faculty of Management Sciences,
International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan
amir.msfin615@iiu.edu.pk
Muhammad Anwar*
Working Paper. September, 2016
Abstract
This study focus to check the influence of behavioral biases in investment decision making
with moderating role of financial literacy in Pakistan. Theories in traditional finance consider that
the individual investor is rational because he makes all decision on the bases of all available
information to maximize his wealth. On the other hand behavioral finance is totally opposed this
theory and consider that the individual have some psychological impact toward his investment.
A simple survey questionnaire is used to collect data from 158 investors trading in Pakistan Stock
Market. The results show that disposition effect, overconfidence and herding have significant
positive impact on investment decision. Financial literacy has negative moderating role in herding
bias and positive moderating role of overconfidence bias in investment decision. Results conclude
that active investors show more overconfidence bias while passive investors show more herding
bias. This study will help financial advisors to better advice their clients. The one more way to
overcome these biases may be the training of investor and education. Research culture must be
promoted and investor must have ability of technical analysis.
Keywords: Investment Decision, Overconfidence Bias, Disposition Effect, Herding Bias,
Financial Literacy
Literature Review
Investment Decision
“Efficient market is the market where average returns cannot be greater than what are warranted
for its risk despite whatever investment strategy is applied” (Barberis & Thaler, 2003, p.1054).
Markowitz suggested Portfolio Modern Theory in 1950’s. He studied that the decision maker finds
alternative choices for investment and compare them to make relationship in these choices.
According to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) all investors are not rational but the markets are
supposed to be rational. Despite this theory behavioral finance suggested that sometimes the
markets are not efficient in information (Ritter, 2003).
Investment decisions has become very important because like an business has main purpose to
earn profit, similarly, an investor has main aim to make good decision and earn maximum. But
some investors rely on their personal judgment while some make decisions on the basis of
education and evidences.
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investors also do and when they purchased the stock the lazy and less educated investors also do
the same(Persaud, 2000).
H1: Herding bias has significant and positive influence on investment decision making
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work experience, less education and low class rank. People of USA have more financial literacy
as compared to other countries (Chen and Volpe 1998). There are different study who examined
that financial literacy has significance and positive influence on investment decision.
H4 : Financial Literacy has significant positive influence on investment decision making
H5 : Financial Literacy has moderating role in relationship between herding bias and Investment
Decision Making
H6 : Financial Literacy has moderating role in relationship between overconfidence bias and
Investment Decision Making
H7 : Financial Literacy has moderating role in relationship between disposition effect and
Investment Decision Making
Conceptual Framework
Financial
Literacy
Overconfidence Bias
Investment
Herding Bias
Decision Making
Disposition Effect 5
Research Methodology
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and 30.6% respondent were married and only 0.6% is divorced. 55.1% of the total sample were
having master level qualification whereas 34.8% were having graduate. 7% participant were below
to under graduate and 3.2% having Ph.D. degree. 57% of the participant were those who have done
stock market course while rest of the 43% respondent didn’t have any stock exchange course.
34.1% participant have under Rs. 2 lac investment, 32.3% have more than Rs. 2 lac but below Rs.
4 lac, 22.8% have more than Rs. 4 lac but less than Rs. 10 lac, 4.4% have more than Rs. 20 lac but
below Rs. 30 lac, 3.8% have more than Rs. 30 lac and only 0.6% have more than Rs. 10 lac but
below Rs. 20 lac investment in year 2015.
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of independent variable is over confidence bias having 6 was adopted from Pompian (2011) and
one sample item from this scale is “How much control do you believe you have in picking
investments that will outperform the market”?. And the scale for moderator financial literacy was
adopted from Van Rooij et al., (2011) and one sample item from this scale is “Suppose you had
Rs.100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2% per year. After 5 years, how much do you
think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow”?
Control variables:
The current study used a few control variables related to investor demographic such as gender,
age, income, current year investment, last year investment and duration of stock market visit was
considered as control variable while running regression test. These variables were found from
ANOVA as we observed P .05 so it suggest significance effect of these variables on independent
and dependent variables. And these all play role in dependent variable investment decision.
Results:
Reliability
Reliability Analysis is used to examine internal consistency of the observed factors. This analysis
is measured by Cronbach’s alpha. According to Swkaran (2000) Cronbach alfa is actually a
reliability that is used to identify the relationship of different items to one another. Above 6 scale
is considered as acceptable scale for reliability analysis. In our study we have 5 different variable
having 32 items. Cronbach’s alpha of all these variables were above 6 which means that there
strong internal reliability among the items. For 3 items of investment decision the scale was
observed .775, for 7 items of herding bias it was .635, disposition effect include 10 items and the
reliability scale was .716, for 3 items of financial literacy it was .60 and rest of 6 items was belong
to overconfidence bias observed for these items were 0.773.
Correlation
Table 1 show the Mean, Standard deviation, Correlation and reliability of the factors. Mean of
Investment Decision is 4.0717, mean score of Herding Bias was 3.9846, Disposition Effect was
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1.2924, Financial Literacy was 1.5738 and Overconfidence Bias was 1.9114. It means on average
respondents response to satisfy to all the factors.
Pearson correlation was used to found the relationship between independent variables (Herding
Bias, Disposition Effect and Overconfidence Bias), moderator Financial Literacy and dependent
variable Investment Decision and Table 1 suggest us that Herding Bias have significant positive
relation with Investment Decision (r = .530, P =0.000).
Table 1
Means, Standard Deviations, Correlations, and Reliabilities
Regression
This table 2 explain the effect of independent variable (Herding Bias, Disposition Effect, and
Overconfidence Bias) and moderator (Financial Literacy) on dependent variable (Investme nt
Decision). We perform different linear regression analysis to test the hypothesis. In the first step
gender, age, income, total time spend in stock market, current year investment and last year
investment were entered as control variables. The result show that there is strong positive effect of
herding bias on investment decision (β= .534, P .05) and thus the hypothesis 1 is supported.
Furthermore overconfidence bias have negative effect on investment decision (β= -4.95, P .05)
but the hypothesis 2 is statistically insignificant. The disposition effect was also negative effect on
investment decision (β= -.144 p>.05) but not supported the hypothesis 3. Result shows that
financial literacy also have negative effect on investment decision (β= -4.95* p.05) and
Hypothesis 4 is also statistically insignificant. In step 3 results were showed that hypothesis 5 (β=
-.050, P .05) is not supported but hypothesis 6 (β= .389* p.05) is supported because result was
significant and positive for this and hypothesis 7 (β= .254, P .05) was also not supported.
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Table 2
Result of Regression analysis of independent variables with financial literacy and
investment decision
Independent
Variable β R² ∆R²
Step 1
Control Variable .201 .201
Step 2
Herding Bias HE .629*
Disposition Effect DE -.144 .623 .421
Financial Literacy (Moderator) FL -2.31*
Overconfidence O -4.95*
Step 3
HE x FL -.050
DE x FL .254 .644 .021
O x FL .389*
Note: n = 158, HE= Herding Bias, DE= Disposition Effect, FL= Financial Literacy and O=
Overconfidence Bias
Control variables were Gender, Age, Income, Market Visit, Investment C, Investment L
P* < .05.
The graph shows that when investor was highly literate about financial theories then he shows
more overconfidence bias as compared to illiterate investor. So, financial literacy have positive
relation with overconfidence while doing any investment decision regarding the stock picking or
disposition of stock.
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5
4.5
Performance 4
3.5
3 Low Financial
Literacy
2.5
High Financial
2 Literacy
1.5
1
Low Overconfidence High Overconfidence
Discussion
This study is done to assess the role of herding bias, disposition effect and overconfidence bias in
investment decision and moderating role on financial literacy in Karachi Stock Exchange and
Islamabad Stock Exchange. If we see with the view of theories of traditional finance then we
conclude that investor make decision after assessing and evaluating the all available informa tio n
relating to the stock and after that they do investment and maximize their wealth and utility.
However, behavioral finance totally oppose these theories and suggested that it is impossible that
markets are perfectly rational and there is no concept of strong form of efficiency in market where
all investors have the same information and they all are highly literate and do decision on the basis
of experience, qualification and their own judgement. So, behavioral finance identified some
psychological biases and their impact on investor decision making.
A survey questionnaire is designed and is used to collect responses using convenience sampling
techniques from a sample of 158 investors of Karachi Stock Exchange and Islamabad Stock
Exchange. Results shows that herding bias exist in Karachi and Islamabad Stock Exchange while
Overconfidence Bias have statistically insignificant it means that overconfidence have negative
impact on investment decision because when investor shows overconfidence about picking the
stock, mostly he does wrong decision. Financial Literacy have also statistically insignifica nt
relation with investment decision, of course mostly investor in Pakistan is financially illiterate and
they even don’t know the basic concept of traditional finance theories i.e. interest rate calculatio n,
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inflation rate calculation, net present value, future value, coupon rate, annuity etc. So, they show
negative impact on investment decision.
One hypothesis is not supported and that is disposition effect have negative effect on investme nt
decision. Past research shows that it is possible due to short term investment, because investor
shows disposition effect when they do long term investment. And second reason is that when the
qualification level of investor is high then there may be no disposition effect in the stock market
(Dhar, R., and Zhu, N. 2002). So, the reason behind this hypothesis is that most of participants in
sample are master qualified and investment is also short term in Pakistani stock market.
Practical Implications
Many investor do investment on other advice and they don’t have their own opinion in investme nt
decision. So, there should be stock market courses for the investor before doing and investment in
the stock market and to become able them that they do technical analysis of the market. Financia l
decision are very important for social and human life of an investor and poor financial decision
have strong impact on social and human life so it is necessary to avoid these biases. There are also
lot of other biases exist in the market which may affect the investor investment decision so it is
better to give technical education to the investor that how can they overcome these biases and how
can they avoid from such decision which may lead them to face the huge financia l loss in future.
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The author has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate.