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- Shunryu Suzuki
Zen Mind, Beginners Mind
The purpose of this session is to provide the tools to implement improvement actions.
You will probably notice that many of the tools presented throughout this course may
be applied at multiple points in the process. Several tools discussed in the Analyze I
and II sessions also have application in this Improve session, particularly Design of
Experiments. Statistical Process Control is another tool that can be used for different
purposes - to Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control.
Just as a carpenter may use a hammer throughout the various stages of building a
house, Lean Six Sigma tools may be applied in different contexts at different steps in
the process. Don't be concerned if the tools that you employ do not fit neatly within
one of the conceptual categories of Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control.
Likewise, there is no hard and fast rule as to which tools must be used on a given
project. Some projects will require extensive quantitative analysis while others may rely
on conceptual tools like process flow charts and systems diagrams.
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As you work through a Six Sigma project, you may find that efforts to reduce Case Studies:
variability through process management are limited by the process or product
Refrigerator
design. Ultimately, almost every process requires some level of design change Design
in order to achieve performance breakthroughs. Projects with a heavy design Defects by
orientation utilize a methodology called Design for Six Sigma, or DFSS, which Design
follows any of several different roadmaps, including: Define-Concept-Design-
Optimize-Verify (DCDOV), or Define-Measure-Analyze-Design-Verify
(DMADV).
Outside
Design for Six Sigma builds upon an established body of knowledge called DFX: Research:
Design for Manufacturability, Design for Serviceability, Design for Processability, Design for
etc. - a group of design principles used to reduce cost, improve quality, and Manufacturability
reduce time-to-market by making products easy to produce. Studies have (optional)
shown that 80% or more of a product's cost is determined during the design
phase. Decisions made early in the design process largely determine ultimate
product quality as well as cost. Incorporation of DFSS relies upon proactive
cross-functional involvement by all affected functions early in the product
development cycle. The top DFSS design principles are summarized here; many
are interrelated.
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Benchmarking
One thing to remember with benchmarking: you may fall into the trap of following
rather than leading. Benchmarking may be a good first step to improve performance,
but it doesn't guarantee that you become the best that you can be.
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Brainstorming In
Action
Building on Failures
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We recently heard about a related technique for root cause analysis called
"BlameStorming". Sound interesting? To learn more, click here. And no, it's not
serious.
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Multi-voting
5. Repeat steps 3) and 4) until the list is reduced to the desired number; (max. 5
recommended).
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Overview
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a tool used to prioritize potential defects
based on their severity, expected frequency, and likelihood of detection. An FMEA can
be performed on a design or a process, and is used to prompt actions to improve
design or process robustness. The FMEA highlights weaknesses in the current design
or process in terms of the customer, and is an excellent vehicle to prioritize and
organize continuous improvement efforts on areas which offer the greatest return.
The FMEA is a matrix that establishes priorities based on the risk of failure. Scores are
assigned to each potential defect mode of a process in three categories:
The combined score conveys the overall risk of a customer problem, called the Risk
Priority Number, or RPN. The worst case is represented by those defects which are
severe, likely to occur, and hard to detect. That combination would have the highest
RPN, and would be the highest priority for improvement. If a severe defect is either less
likely to occur, or more likely to be detected, its priority would be lower.
Example
FMEA Example
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PROCESS STEP FAILURE MODE A) SEVERITY B) OCCURRENCE C) DETECTION RISK ACTION REVISED
Safety
Severe 10=Highest 10=Lowest RPN
1) Select 1) Select
seat wrong seat 5 4 3 60
belt belt color
As you can see, three potential failure modes have been identified. Failure mode
number two has a Risk Priority Number (RPN) of 144, and is therefore the highest
priority for process improvement.
FMEAs are often completed as part of a new product launch process. RPN minimum
targets may be established to ensure a given level of process capability before shipping
product to customers. In that event, it is wise to establish guidelines for assessing the
values for Severity, Occurrence, and Detection to make the RPN as objective as
possible.
How
Constructing An FMEA
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PROCESS STEP FAILURE MODE A) SEVERITY B) OCCURRENCE C) DETECTION RISK ACTION REVISED
1) Select 1) Select
Seat wrong seat
Belt belt color
The next step is to assign a value on a 1-10 scale for the Severity, Probability of
Occurrence, and Probability of Detection columns for each of the potential failure
modes, as shown below:
PROCESS STEP FAILURE MODE A) SEVERITY B) OCCURRENCE C) DETECTION RISK ACTION REVISED
1) Select 1) Select
Seat wrong seat 5 4 3
Belt belt color
After assigning a value, the three numbers for each failure mode are multiplied
together to yield a Risk Priority Number (RPN), as shown in the highlighted area below.
The RPN becomes a priority value to rank the failure modes, with the highest number
demanding the most urgent improvement activity. Error-proofing, or poka-yoke
actions are often an effective response to high RPNs.
PROCESS STEP FAILURE MODE A) SEVERITY B) OCCURRENCE C) DETECTION RISK ACTION REVISED
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1) Select 1) Select
Seat wrong seat 5 4 3 60
Belt belt color
When
The FMEA is used in the Improve phase of the DMAIC process to identify actions that
reduce risk and to prioritize the control strategy for a process. In addition, FMEAs are
frequently employed in the earlier phases of DMAIC to identify and prioritize design
activities.
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Practice
Practice - FMEA
PROCESS STEP FAILURE MODE A) SEVERITY B) OCCURRENCE C) DETECTION RISK ACTION REVISED
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Error-Proofing
You may not realize it, but you probably encounter many examples of error-proofing in
your every-day life, as outlined by the link below:
View Using
Examples Error-
of Error- Proofing
Proofing Techniques
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Selecting a Solution
After narrowing the list of solution ideas down to a manageable size, one of the ideas
should be selected as an improvement project. Following a structured approach as
presented here to classify, review, prioritize and select a solution has several benefits.
Ensures that solutions with the highest likelihood of success are worked on. Solution
Provides a clear, consistent, process for decision making. Selection
Minimizes the potential for wasting resources. Tutorial
Establish rating criteria. What are the factors upon which the potential
solutions will be evaluated? Typically, these factors include areas such as
strategic fit, investment, technical feasibility, development time, etc.
Weight the criteria. What is the importance of each of the criterion? Most often
this is on a scale of 0 to 1.0 with 1.0 being the most important.
Establish criteria rating descriptions. Define an achievement level for every
criterion corresponding to each level of allowable rating. For example, if the
rating scale is 1 to 5, describe what a rating of 1 would "look like" for each
criteria. Repeat for 2 through 5.
Rate each solution against the criteria. This may be done by a team. Typically
the ratings are on a scale of 1 to 5 with 1 meaning the solution does not satisfy
the criterion and 5 meaning that the solution fully satisfies the criterion.
Sum and rank order the ratings. The solution with the highest sum total is the
one most likely to succeed based on the criteria. If the totals for two or more
solutions are close, another round of review and voting may be called for; or a
more detailed analysis of the potential solutions may be necessary.
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The improvement process itself is not immune from waste. For example, it is common
for an organization to require numerous, detailed reports on project progress and
extensive background analyses for decision making. These reports and analyses can
run to several pages and be loaded with acronyms, business jargon, detailed textual
explanations, and countless tables of data. While the information can be valuable and
is often necessary, it does not facilitate communication and often hinders it. Project
teams and decision-makers must often sort through reams of data and paper to get
the information they really need.
In response, many companies have developed one-page reports for documenting the
information that is really needed for progress reporting and decision-making. These
one-page reports frequently draw upon the detailed reports and analyses mentioned
above. Many companies call these reports, simply enough, “One-Pagers”. One-page
reports focus on communicating visually to the reader using graphs and charts, and
succinctly using bullet points.
A sample One-Page Report is shown below. Click on an area of the report to see
specific details.
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Toyota Motor Company has embraced and integrated the one-page report concept
throughout its Toyota Production System and calls it the A3 Report. Any time
information needs to be communicated for a specific purpose, the objective is to use
an A3 sheet of paper to do so. A3 refers to the metric paper size that the report is
produced on - equivalent to a paper size of 11 inches x 17 inches. In an interesting
note on Toyota’s focus on continuous improvement, the A3 Report is often replaced by
the smaller, more concise A4 Report.
There will always need to be some amount of data gathering and analysis in order to
develop information that an organization needs. However, the philosophy behind the
one-page report is that the information needed to communicate with others or
facilitate decision-making should easily fit on one page.
Pareto’s principle of the critical few and trivial many applies well here. A one-page
report can be viewed as identifying the critical few pieces of information needed to
communicate about a particular subject. Everything else is the trivial many and has the
potential to hinder communication if included.
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Overview
In many ways, the term Continuous Flow defines Lean Methods, whose purpose is to
eliminate all waste by improving the movement of material or information through a
process - increased process velocity. Continuous Flow means a product or service
Deeper
progresses through a series of value-added steps without delays (inventory) rework
Dive:
(defects) or non-value-added operations. Ideally, a product or service moves directly Lean
from the point of production to the point of consumption. Many Lean Six Sigma Enterprise
projects have a heavy Lean component, particularly those intended to reduce process Overview
cycle time. Reducing cycle time requires achieving a more continuous flow, which in
turn requires a reduction in lot size to more closely match the pace of demand with the
pace of production. This lesson presents a framework for actions to implement
continuous flow.
Example
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The Federal Redundant Inspection Security Corp. (FRISC) is a national airport security
screening company that is trying to improve customer experience for passengers of a
Take 2 on
large eastern airport. One of the higher priority improvement actions identified by the Takt Time
team is to reduce wait times of passengers passing through its security screening Analysis
equipment. A Lean Six Sigma team has been chartered to improve customer
satisfaction without sacrificing the integrity of the screening process. Most complaints
are centered on the long lines and long wait times (45 minutes) experienced on Friday
Formula:
afternoons. The team has already completed the Define phase of the project, and has Calculating
good visibility of the process. The team has also identified that passengers would be Takt Time
happy with a wait time no greater than 15 minutes. The next task is to improve the
FLOW of the process in an economical fashion.
Case
The team recognizes that improving the flow of passengers requires balancing the Study:
rate of processing with the rate of customer demand. If the rate of passengers Healthcare
intending to pass through screening exceeds the rate at which they are screened, the Example
queue, or backlog, will continue to grow. As a first step, the team identifies a need to
quantify the demand rate, or Takt Time, experienced on Friday afternoons. You may
recall that we introduced the concept of Takt Time in an earlier toolset. For a review,
click on the link in the right margin. In this case, the team identified a peak demand
of 300 passengers per hour between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM on Friday afternoons. Takt
Time is therefore 3600 seconds (1hr) divided by 300 customers per hour, or 12.0
seconds; so the screening process must output a passenger every 12.0 seconds to
maintain an even flow. The process' actual performance is somewhat lower, with an
average output during these peak hours of one passenger every 15.0 seconds.
Generally, a central component of improving flow is to Reduce Lot Size - the number
or items or units that are processed at once, In this case, we already have a lot size of
one. Many times, processing takes place in batches, which requires higher levels of
work in process inventory. We'll cover this concept in depth in a subsequent toolset.
Having established the Takt time, the team now needs to understand the relationship
between Takt Time (Demand Rate), Process Cycle Time, and the size of the Queue, or
Passengers In Process (PIP). In the interest of consistency, we'll generally use the term
WIP, or Work In Process. This leads us to a simple but powerful equation called Little's
Law.
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Little's Law
On the surface, the team's task seems simple - they need to either add screeners or
otherwise increase the speed of the screening process - but how many screeners?
And when should they be added? FRISC wants to balance capacity with demand so
that customers are satisfied without paying excess screeners who might be idle at
times.
Little's Law is an equation that provides the answer. The equation states:
In our example, recall that the wait time reached a high of 45 minutes, and the
processing rate was one every 15 seconds, or 240 per hour (60 x 60 / 15). At the
peak of demand, According to Little's Law, the screening process will have 180
passengers in the queue:
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The cycle time falls, but only to 0.6 hours - far higher than our target of 0.25 hours.
Once the queue has increased, matching the processing rate with demand will not
reduce the queue size - only keep it from growing. So the key is to add capacity
earlier to protect the processing time - but when? Let's set the cycle time at 0.25
hours and set the Passengers Per Hour at 300 to determine the threshold queue size:
How
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1. See the process by creating a Value Stream Map to guide your efforts and
communicate your plan to others. This tool was covered at length in a previous
lesson.
4. Analyze the balance between supply (value creation) and demand (use). Enter the
work-in-progress (inventory) and completion rate per unit time into the Little's
Law calculator in EngineRoom to quantify the impact on cycle time of reducing
work-in-progress. The calculator as provided in EngineRoom is shown below:
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5. Achieve Balance
Level Demand It may be possible to level demand by using
sales and marketing incentives (or lack thereof) to flatten the
spikes. Movie theatres do this by offering discount tickets in
the afternoon to incentivize customers to attend earlier and
reduce peak evening demand. Restaurants do likewise by
offering "early-bird" discounts.
Level Value Creation through improved flexibility. This is the
most important factor in establishing continuous flow -
setup reduction and quick changeovers:
Quick Changeovers - If set-ups or changeovers are lengthy, it is
impossible to process small lots of units. This applies to both service
and manufacturing. In manufacturing, for example, large stamping
dies commonly took hours to change until the development of quick
die change methods (Single Minute Exchange of Die, or SMED). Long
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changeovers necessitate cycle times well below the Takt time, and
hence a buildup of inventory to supply production while the die is
being changed. For a service example, consider changing over the
operating room between surgeries. It may not seem obvious, but there
are strong parallels between the two examples. This subject will be
handled in depth in a subsequent lesson.
Reduced Lot Size - Reduced lot sizes go hand-in-hand with quick
changeovers. The smaller the lot size, the better the flow through the
process. Small lots can be passed continually between processes,
allowing layout changes to link processes into cells, and reducing
inventory and the space it requires. Quality and processing problems
are quickly exposed and problem resolution is forced because there is
no buffer inventory to hide the inefficiencies. With large batches, all
sense of Takt time is lost on the shop floor.
Iterative Improvement
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Becoming lean is not accomplished in one fell swoop by a single project, it requires a
series of efforts over time which build upon themselves, so factor the iterative nature
of this improvement path into your planning. As you improve the flow of your
processes, you will begin to see impediments and opportunities that would not have
been visible when you first started.
When
There may be no clear distinction between Lean activities and the Six Sigma activities in
a Lean Six Sigma project, and many projects combine elements of both. Use of lean
tools within a project is determined by the need to address the flow of materials or
information, as shown below:
Practice
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Crystal Creek Canoe provides full-service excursion support for trips down Crystal
Creek, including rental of canoes and kayaks, and transportation back to the base
camp. The company sets a time limit of 5.0 hours for return of equipment rented to
travel the six mile trip. The actual time required to reach the return point is normally
3.0 hours, and customers are given extra time in case they want to stop along the way.
During the latest peak season, the company turned away business for lack of
equipment. The general manager would like to be more accommodating during the
upcoming season, but canoes and kayaks are expensive, so she would like to minimize
her investment in inventory. The current inventory of canoes and kayaks totals 280,
which provides a cushion of about 55 extra during normal times, when hourly demand
averages 45. During the peak season, the general manager expects hourly demand as
high as 70, and wonders how many extra canoes or kayaks she would need to
purchase. Click on the practice icon below to answer the general manager's questions.
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Overview
Quick Changeovers
As lean production is dependent upon small lot sizes, small lot sizes are dependent
upon quick changeovers. If changeovers are lengthy, it is mathematically impossible to
produce small lots of products with low inventory because large in-process inventories
must be maintained to feed production during changeovers (unless there is no product
variety), so quick changeovers are a critical component of the Lean Enterprise.
Reducing changeover time can be one of the highest leverage activities in support of
efforts to reduce inventories and increase process velocity - for both transactional and
manufacturing operations.
In the manufacturing arena, large stamping dies commonly took hours to change until
the development of quick die change methods (Single Minute Exchange of Die, or
SMED). Long changeovers necessitate cycle times well below the Takt time, and hence a
buildup of inventory to supply production while the die is being changed. Quick
changeover methods have been thoroughly studied and well-documented, with readily
transferable lessons-learned that can be applied outside of the traditional
manufacturing application, as we shall see.
Example
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Changeovers in the
Transactional World
Changeovers that we encounter in daily life have a significant impact on the time
required to complete a range of everyday tasks, from running errands to ordering
lunch in a restaurant. Some of these changeovers are quick, and some are not, as
highlighted below: Outside
Research:
If you are old enough to remember using a PC before the development of Rapid
Setup For
Windows® (unless you had a Mac!), you probably remember waiting each time Service
you moved between applications as they had to launch each time. By allowing Processes
multiple applications to run simultaneously, the changeover between (optional)
applications is essentially eliminated.
In a restaurant setting, the table cleaning and setup is a changeover between
different customers, effecting the rate at which customers are served. Another
example is the changeover between breakfast and the lunch/dinner menu at a Outside
fast food restaurant. If that changeover does not take place quickly, the cycle Research:
"When
time of serving customers will be directly impacted. Couches
When running errands, you can think of the trip to the store as a changeover. By Fly" from
Fast
placing multiple stores in close proximity, shopping malls actually provide a Company
quick changeover between shopping at different stores. This changeover is (optional)
further reduced when you shop online.
In a hospital setting, an operating room must be cleaned, re-provisioned, and
set-up between each procedure. This operating room changeover process is
actually very similar to changing a stamping die, as strange as that may seem,
and has a significant impact on the facility utilization rate.
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In the third stage, work that was previously included in the internal setup is
transferred to external setup.
The fourth stage requires relentless and continuous improvement of all work
elements within the internal and external setup (Kaizen).
A useful comparison is the pit crew of a racing team changing tires. If the tools and
parts are not prepared until the car enters the pit, then the pit stop will be lengthy. If
the parts and tools are prepared beforehand (External Setup), the crew's every move is
choreographed for efficiency, and special tools and fittings are used to increase speed,
then the pit stop will be short.
How
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Quick-Changeover Techniques
Specific techniques to reduce changeover time are listed below. They could apply to
either a manufacturing process or a service, such as an operating room:
Deeper
Staged Equipment, Tooling and Fixtures - If a part or tool must be placed Dive:
into a fixture prior to an operation, such as machining, add a fixture so that Sometimes
while one part or tool is in the machine, the second can be set up in the It Pays To
Be Late
fixture.
Operations Conducted in Parallel - Consider the pit crew example again: if
the four tires are changed simultaneously by four crew members that pit stop
is a lot faster than if the crew moves from tire to tire in sequence.
Standardization - Tools that are the same size with the same attachment
location can be changed much more quickly. Consider how long it would take
a pit crew to change tires if the replacement tire had a different lug nut
configuration. In the same vein, a common die height allows the shut height of
the press to be set to a common dimension. Standardized attachment points
and methods reduce confusion and the number of fasteners - saving time.
Standardization also applies to tool storage organization so that tools can be
quickly located. See the 5S tutorial of the Toolbox for additional discussion of
workstation organization.
Quick Attachments - Clamps, cams, and u-shaped washers are used for quick
attachments. If a bolt can be pre-tightened during external setup, then it only
needs one final turn to provide clamping force during internal setup. Another
example to consider is the quick-release hub on a bicycle tire, which facilitates
rapid changeover by a lever and cam device so that a wrench and the time that
goes with it is not required.
No-Adjust Equipment and Tooling - Use locating pins, guides, and fixtures to
completely eliminate adjustment.
Duplicate Equipment and Tooling - Duplicate tooling can minimize or
eliminate the need for changeovers, and the cost can quickly be offset by
reduction in inventory and set-up labor costs. Simple pre-set gauges and
templates can speed up changeovers without large expense.
Assisted Tool Movement - Large stamping dies or other heavy tools can be
moved much faster using dedicated die carts, roller tables, or small conveyors
than with forklifts or cranes. Mechanized tool change equipment allows
pre-staging of the replacement tool, and may also facilitate changeovers by
the base equipment operator without additional indirect labor.
By incorporating these methods, even massive metal stamping dies are commonly
changed in less than 10 minutes - setups that used to take hours. Benefits of reduced
changeover time extend beyond the direct reduction of inventory to include:
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Recommended Books:
When
Quick Changeover techniques can be employed at any phase of the DMAIC process, but
are primarily used in the Improve phase of the cycle. After identifying the value stream,
Quick Changeover techniques are useful in establishing FLOW by reducing lot sizes.
Small lot sizes are a necessary prerequisite to move from a "push" system to a "pull"
system - the essence of becoming Lean.
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Practice
To practice Quick Changeover techniques, we'll use a common example from everyday
domestic life since the exercise requires familiarization with the process. While this
example may seem simplistic, the principles can be readily transferred to a more
complex service or manufacturing setting.
Click on the Practice Icon below to view and answer the practice question:
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Overview
Cellular processing is an effective method of reducing cycle time while eliminating Outside
waste. Close proximity and single-piece flow eliminates overproduction, excess Research:
movement, excess inventory, and the requirement to move large batches - all Cellular
Manufacturing
inherent problems in "batch & queue" systems where processing is and the
compartmentalized by function rather than by product. Work cells also provide Environment
quick feedback on quality problems since issues are identified before whole
batches of defects are produced, encouraging process capability at the source.
Example
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passes through a short cell with 2-4 operators who each perform sequential tasks to
complete the order. Another example is the security screening operation at an airport
(although they have not been very successful at reducing WIP!). Other general examples
include co-located product development teams, Emergency Department trauma cells,
and local diagnostic testing at a physician's office that bypasses the normal batch
processing of samples at an outside laboratory. In a larger sense, you can even think of
a cross-functional Lean Six Sigma project team as a work cell - where all of the critical
functional expertise is represented by active team members rather than solely in a
functional department.
A large diversified financial services company was wrestling with market pressures to
decrease transaction costs in order to maintain margins. One of the opportunities was
to improve the productivity and cycle time of the process to send out printed financial
information to its network of brokers. The firm commissioned a Lean Six Sigma team to
reorganize a 13-step batch-oriented process into a more productive work cell with
only 8 steps (5 non-value-added steps were eliminated). You can see the comparison
of two spaghetti charts below.
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year. The company implemented two major facility changes in Lean transformation:
flexible cabinet fabrication, and use of prepainted steel. This move significantly
reduced the large bank of formed cabinets, and completely eliminated the entire paint
process, while reducing the number of major process steps from 10 to 7, as shown
below:
How
The D-M-A-I-C process provides a practical and flexible roadmap to organize your
actions to develop and launch a work cell, as shown below:
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Like all Lean Six Sigma projects, the process improvement journey starts by
understanding where you are and where you want to go. Mapping the current
process and collecting baseline performance data defines the mission, as detailed
below:
Step 2 - MEASURE: Examine Product Mix Volume Data & Establish Product
Families
In the Analyze Phase, the high level future state map starts to emerge. Data
collected earlier on resource requirements by product should be used to identify
any needs for additional equipment. It is not uncommon to replace large
"monolithic" type equipment with smaller, more focused (and often older and
cheaper) equipment or machines. Any loss in high volume efficiency incurred by
moving to smaller dedicated equipment can be offset by lower inventory levels,
less material handling, higher quality, greater flexibility and responsiveness. The
actions below are suggestions for the Analyze phase of a cellular transformation:
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be used.
Identify needs for any additional dedicated equipment.
Create preliminary Future State Map with reorganized process steps and
right-sized equipment.
Establish pull signals between process steps to call for the transfer of
materials, resources, or information.
In this step, a specific physical layout of the cell is created to govern placement of
machines, workstations, lighting, energy, and material handling equipment.
Whenever possible, equipment and facilities should be small and mobile, even
mounted on wheels, to facilitate easy rearrangement.
Create a site plan that shows the physical location of equipment and
workstations.
Add required infrastructure to the map: electricity, water, compressed air,
network access, etc.
Add material handling equipment to the map as required.
Note any lighting or ventilation requirements.
Be sure to involve the operators of the process in the development of the
plan, and ask them to review the plan before moving equipment and
workstations. You may want to mock up the new cell with tables and
carboard boxes to make sure the space requirements are accurate.
Developed a detailed project plan including what is to be moved or
installed, by whom, and by when.
Step 4 Continued - IMPROVE II: Pilot and Launch the New Cell
A pilot or trial of the new process will allow details to be fine-tuned and errors
corrected in a controlled low-volume run. The pilot provides a vehicle to capture
and address the voice of the operators, whose buy-in is crucial to a successful
launch. After optimizing workstations and resolving any issues identified in the
pilot, volume can be ramped up with greater confidence that no serious problems
will be encountered. At this point, it is also useful to conduct a "Fresh Eyes" review,
inviting people unfamiliar with the process to take a fresh unbiased look for
potential safety, ergonomic or quality problems. Specific actions are detailed
below:
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training.
Identify autonomation opportunities.
Conduct ergonomic and safety assessment.
Document Standardized Work.
Implement error-proofing.
Collect data on all losses (downtime, defects, excess inventory,
overmanning, etc.).
Kaizen activities to improve cycle time and eliminate losses.
Identify and resolve capacity constraints.
Apply 5-S principles on an ongoing basis.
When
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processing steps.
Machinery and equipment can be moved,
rearranged, or downsized to facilitate
dedicated processing.
Practice
Click on the Practice Icon below to answer the practice questions regarding the work cell
design. It may be helpful to print this page for reference.
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Line Balancing
1. Map the process to be studied using a flow diagram or value stream map.
2. Determine the takt time of the process. For example, consider a 4-step
process. Customer demand is 345 units per day. The available working time
is 8 hours minus 2 - 10 minute breaks = 460 minutes. Takt time = Available
Work Time/Demand = 460 minutes/345 units per day = 80 seconds.
3. Analyze the proposed combination. Step One has a cycle time that is close to
the takt time so no changes are required. Steps Two and Four both exceed
the takt time while Step Three is substantially lower. Step Three, therefore,
appears to have some capacity for work to be switched from Steps Two and
Four. See the image below for the current state of the process.
4. Reconfigure the work assignments so that all of the process step cycle times
are less than or equal to the takt time. Click and drag a work assignment to
move it from one process step to the next:
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Overview
Example
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The Procurement request for proposal (RFP) process below has the purpose of
identifying and contracting with suppliers for new advertising campaigns identified
by the Business Development group. In the current state, the Business Development
group identifies new campaigns at the rate of one every six days. The current
Procurement Process cycle time is 36 days with 6 RFPs in process at any one time.
versus
According to Little’s Law, the expected throughput rate is 6 RFPs in process divided Stochastic
by 36 days cycle time = 0.167 RFPs per day. Assumptions
Case Study:
The Impact
of Variation
on a Subway
Station
Outside
Research:
TOC with the
Marine Corp
(optional
requires
Adobe
Acrobat)
The table in the lower left of the image compares the expected performance of the
model calculated with Little’s Law to the performance as predicted using a
simulation model running for 265 days. For simplicity, all the simulation models are
deterministic, assuming no variation in the process step cycle times.
Click here to see a graph of Cycle Time and RFPs in Process versus calendar Time.
Note how the cycle time is steady at 36 days. This is a good indication that there are
no bottlenecks - just a slow process.
The management team was satisfied with the performance of the Procurement
Process and did not see any reason to change it, even though most process steps
had excess capacity.
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An Unintended Consequence
Click here to see an animation of the process. Note the piling up of RFPs in process
at the front end.
Click here to see a graph of Cycle Time and RFPs in Process versus calendar Time.
Note how the cycle time and RFPs in process are steadily increasing with calendar
time. This is a strong indication that there is a bottleneck.
Noticing the large amount of RFPs in process on either side of Step #1, the
management team quickly decided to add a person to help out with Step #1. The
results are shown below:
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What happened is that all of the RFPs in process now appear in front of Step #2.
Click here to see an animation of the process. Note the continued piling up of RFPs
in process at the front end.
Click here to see a graph of Cycle Time and RFPs in Process versus calendar Time.
Note how the cycle time and RFPs in process are steadily increasing with calendar
time as well as the fact that the rate of increase is the same.
It is clear that neither Step #1 nor Step #2 had the throughput capability to match
the demand of 0.5 campaigns per day.
The Supply Chain Vice President was furious with the performance of the
Procurement Process. Meeting with the management team, it became clear the Step
#2 was the bottleneck in the system and adding a resource to increase throughput
capacity was the solution. The results are shown below:
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The expected and predicted Cycle Time, Throughput and RFPs in process measures
all matched and the process performed as expected.
Click here to see a graph of Cycle Time and RFPs in Process versus calendar Time.
Note how the cycle time is once again steady at 36 days.
How
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Consider an eight step process that produces three types of products, Type A, Type B
and Type C.
The following table summarizes the process routing, cycle time, profitability and
monthly demand of each type of product:
You can also click the product type names on the image below to see a visual
representation of the routing for that product type. This image also shows the cycle
time for each process step and which of three available resources (J,K and L) work on
that step. Each resource is available 10,400 minutes per month.
The TOC methodology will be explained by applying each of the five TOC steps to the
above situation.
It is clear that there is a possible market constraint on this process as the demand for
products is finite. In other words, if the process could produce twice what the market
demanded, there would be a lot of unsold product sitting in the factory. Thus, the
market demand is a constraint on the process.
In addition, there may also be a resource constraint in that the amount of time
available for each resource is constrained. If any one of the resources has a utilization
over 100% in trying to meet the market demand, then that resource is also a constraint.
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For example, resource J is used on Steps 1,2 and 3. Product Type A does not use these
steps. Product Type B uses all 3 and Product Type C uses only Step 3. The demand for
resource J, therefore is, Type B (150 min + 250 min + 150 min ) x the demand for Type
B (15) + Type C (150 min) x the demand for Type C (8) = 9450 min.
The utilization for resource J is 9450 min divided by the available time of 10,400
minutes = 91%. The demand and utilization for resources K and L are calculated in the
same way.
J 9450 91%
K 9950 96%
L 12,400 119%
The process cannot meet market demand because resource L is constrained at 119%
utilization.
This step entails developing several approaches for evaluating the constraints (market
demand and resource L) and determining the impact on profits.
In this situation, there will be three evaluations performed. Each approach will establish
a processing priority for the three products. Each product will be processed according
to its priority until either a) the customer demand is met or b) a resource is fully
utilized. When no further processing is possible (due to meeting demand or exceeding
resource availability) the total profits for each product will be determined and totaled
for that approach.
The approach that delivers the highest overall profit will be selected. This is what is
meant be "exploiting" the constraints. The constraints are exploited to maximize profit.
In this case, maximixing profit (making money) is the goal of the process. There could
be alternate service-related metrics.
In this step, the actual production, resource usage and profit for each of the
approaches identified in Step 2 are calculated.
Product Profitability
This is the most intuitive approach, "build the most profitable products first". With this
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approach the processing order will be C ($4500), B ($3000) and then A ($1750).
Meeting the demand of product Type C (8 units) does not exhaust any resources. Only
13 units of Type B (demand is 15) can be met before exhausting resource L. Type A
products cannot be made because the process requires resource L. The total profit for
this approach is Type C (8 x $4500 = $36,000) + Type B (13 x $3000 = $39,000) =
$75,000.
The table below summarizes the resource usage for this approach:
Product A B C
Demand Resource Use (min)
7 15 8
(given) 10,400 Max
Actual 0 13 8
Resource J 0 7150 1200 8350
Resource K 0 0 6800 6800
Resource L 0 6435 3960 10395
Cycle Time
Process the products with the lowest cycle time first. With this approach the processing
order will be Type A (595 min), Type B (1045 min) and then Type C (1495 min).
All of the demand for product Type A (7 units) and Type B (15 units) can be met Only 3
of the 8 demanded units of Type C can be produced before resource L is exhausted.
The total profit for this approach is Type A (7 x $1750 = $12,250) + Type B (15 x
$3000 = $45,000) + Type C (3 x $4500 = $13,500) = $70,750.
The table below summarizes the resource usage for this approach:
Product A B C
Resource Use
Demand
7 15 8 (min)
10,400 Max
(given)
Actual 7 15 3
Resource
3150 0 2550 5700
K
All of the demand for product Type A (7 units) and Type C (8 units) can be met without
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The table below summarizes the resource usage for this approach:
Product A B C
Resource Use
Demand
7 15 8 (min)
10,400 Max
(given)
Actual 7 10 8
Resource
3150 0 6800 9950
K
The third approach produces the highest profit ($78,250) for the organization. The
first approach is not far behind but results in no product Type A being produced. In
conclusion, two reasons to go with the third approach are a) it produces the highest
profit and b) a mix of all of the product types is produced.
At this point, the constraints have been fully exploited and throughput has been
maximized, essentially with no investment. However, the constraints remain so we
must continue. If the constraints had been eliminated in the previous step, this step
would be skipped.
In our situation, the constraint remains because the demand is not being fully met.
Elevating the constraint most often requires investment with the objective of increasing
the capacity of the constraint. There are several methods that can be employed here:
Training so that operators can perform their tasks more efficiently and
effectively
Process improvement to reduce process step cycle time or eliminate rework
Better equipment to reduce errors in processing and increase availability
Additional staff to fill in when needed
The addition of small buffer inventories ahead of the constraint so that it is
never starved of input
Once the constraints have been elevated to the point where they are eliminated (in our
case, resources are not over-utilized, demand is met and profit is maximized), the next
step can be approached.
Step 5 - Go back to Step 1, but don't let inertia become the new constraint
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If the constraints identified previously have been broken, then it is time to start over
again and find the new constraints in the system. It is important to not be satisfied
with the good results that were produced by the first four steps. Becoming complacent
with the status quo means that organizational inertia has set in. This will prevent any
further improvement and become a constraint itself.
When
The Theory of Constraints is a valuable tool that may be paired with other analysis
techniques to model process situations. Use TOC and Line Balancing when there is
little or no variability in the demand or process step cycle time. Use TOC and Monte
Carlo analysis or process simulation to model the situation and assess alternatives if
there is variability in process cycle time or demand.
Practice
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Eastwest Airlines operates out of a single airport hub. The hub operates 24 hours per
day. Click here for background on Eastwest Airlines current situation and then click the
practice icon below to answer a practice question.
After reading the background, click on the practice icon below to answer questions
about Eastwest.
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One of the core principles of Lean Methods is that goods and services should be
produced only in response to customer demand. In other words, production should be
Deeper
"pulled" through the value stream by customer orders rather than "pushed" through
Dive:
the system in advance of customer demand. Linking the creation of goods and services
Creating
closely with demand minimizes waste in all its various forms: excess inventory from Pull in
making too many or the wrong items, or unfilled orders from making too few or the the Office
wrong items. Why? Because forecasting is rarely very accurate - and less so the longer
the time horizon. In our experience, the one certainty about any forecast is that it will
be wrong; it's just a question of HOW wrong.
The simulation below contrasts a simple process governed by a "pull" system with the
same system operating with "push" scheduling. Note that the "units" being processed
could represent either a manufactured part or a service activity, and work-in-process is
referred to as "WIP".
Results: If you play the simulation to the end, you will see a
stark difference between the peformance of the two systems:
The Push system keeps customers waiting 29 times longer, on
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In the Lean world, the word Pull refers to the fundamental concept that all activity in
any process should be the direct result of customer demand. When Voice-of-the-
Customer data are collected and analyzed to define the specific customer needs, one
key requirement is the time the product or service is needed. This is where the Lean
concept of Pull enters the discussion. Delivering the required product or service on
time - not before or after it is needed - is the fundamental goal of Pull. The Voice-
of-the-Customer, in terms of Lean Philosophy, means responding to customer demand
and delivering the requested product or service at the customer’s expected delivery
time.
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There are three primary types of pull systems used in Lean to make the Pull concept
a reality. You can see each of the systems working in the simulation below:
Replenishment
Pull System
Tutorial
Outside
Research:
Pull Systems
Must fit your
Production
Needs
(optional,
requires
Adobe
Acrobat)
Core Process Pull - The Core Process Pull System (also known as
"Internal Pull") is used to manage the internal movement of
material and information in a process. Core Process Pull Systems
are a key Lean tool for stabilizing an out-of-control process.
They are also a critical element in maintaining stable work-in-
process and stable customer lead-times in any process.
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Each of the three Pull Systems described above is covered in greater detail in more
advanced lessons. Additional lean topics that may be important aids in designing
and implementing a Pull System for your business include:
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Overview
A Core Process Pull System is used to manage the core internal movement of work
product in a process, which may include tangible (material) and/or intangible
(information). Because this system focuses on internal processes, it is also known as an
Internal Pull System. Core Process Pull Systems are a key Lean tool for bringing order
out of chaos by maintaining stable work-in-process and producing stable customer
lead-times (total process cycle time).
Some everyday examples of Core Process Pull Systems include the following:
Kanban card systems in factories limit the amount of material that can be
present in the factory (work in process). New work is not allowed to begin
processing until an existing piece of work is completed and a Kanban
card is available.
Car dealers limit the amount of cars they will work on by making
appointments for service. Each appointment has an estimated time to
complete the work. This use of Core Process Pull Systems with a
time-based measure of work ensures that the dealership maintains a
stable and predictable cycle time for repairs and customers are not left
waiting endlessly for their cars (well...usually).
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Example
Outside
Research:
Multi-
tasking
Makes Us
Stupid
(optional,
requires
Adobe
In this process, work is assigned to each person in the IT department, perhaps based Acrobat)
on their skills, perhaps based on their perceived load, or perhaps just randomly. Some
requests are important, and some are just trivial "time-wasters", but they are rarely
screened before they are assigned. As a result, the amount of work in the system on
any given day can vary tremendously. An important update may wait behind an
unnecessary report in the queue and could be delayed for weeks. How often have you
been given a specific promised lead-time for an IT request?
Core Process Pull systems are an effective tool for stabilizing the lead-time of a
process and prioritizing the work that enters the process. The Core Process Pull system
relies on the principle set forth in Little’s Law to stabilize the process.
Recall that Little’s Law says that the lead-time through a process is equal to the work
or load currently in the process, divided by the capacity or rate which work can exit
from the system. The Core Process Pull system puts a cap, or limit, on the amount of
work-in-process that is allowed into the process (WIP Cap). All other work is held in a
single queue at the beginning of the process and new work is only allowed to enter the
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process when existing work has completed and exited the process. Returning to Little’s
Law, if the WIP (numerator) is stable, and the Capacity (denominator) is stable, then the
resulting lead-time through the process will be stable.
You can see an example of a simple Core Process Pull system below, using Kanban
cards to control work-in-process (WIP). Set different caps on the amount of WIP and
see how the process reacts.
Returning now to the IT department, to implement a Core Process Pull system, a single
queue of incoming requests would be placed at the beginning of the process. Each
person in the process (the ‘capacity’ of the process) would have a very limited number
of requests they would be working on. This would also increase efficiency by reducing
distracting change-overs between projects. New work in the queue would be
prioritized based on the urgency of the need and whether or not all required
information is available to complete the task. No new work would enter the process
until a current task is completed.
Beyond more predictable total cycle times, an additional benefit of this system design
is to make the queue more visible, which reduces the need for status updates - a
generally non-value-added activity.
How
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Outside
The design and implementation of a Core Process Pull system can be broken down into Research:
7 steps, which can be grouped to follow the DMAIC methodology, as presented below. Little's
Law in
Action
Step 1 - DEFINE: Map your process - a Value Stream Mapping approach is probably (MP4 Format)
You may have already mapped the process, but data will be required before moving
forward. You will need to know the existing capacity of the process, expressed as
"volume over a period of time" (see Little’s Law). You will also need to know the current
amount of work in process (WIP) in the system and take a sample of lead-times for
several items flowing through the process.
Step 2 - MEASURE: Validate the WIP in the process and confirm Little’s Law
When you first calculate the expected lead-time of your process using
Little’s Law, you will almost always get an answer that is different from the
actual lead-times you observed during your Value Stream Mapping of the
process. This is because most processes have some amount of WIP which is
no longer moving in the process - it is stuck for some reason and will stay
stuck in the process until some special action is taken to move it along. As part of your
improvement project, you will need to find and un-stick this WIP and either discard it
or have it complete the process. No process can be allowed to have dead WIP stuck in
the process.
Recall that Little’s Law provides a simple equation to calculate the lead-time or cycle
time through a process based on the amount of work in the process and the rate at
which work is completed.
Cycle Time or Lead Time = Items-In-Process / Throughput Volume Per Unit of Time
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In the case of Core Process Pull Systems, we want the lead-time through the process to
be stable and predictable. Having a stable lead-time will allow us to make promises to
our customers on how long their wait will be. If we assume that our process output will
remain stable in the short-term (we are not adding any extra staff or capacity), then
the only way to have a stable lead-time through the process is to have a stable amount
of work in the process. Little’s Law shows us this relationship.
The calculation of this maximum value of work in the process, often referred to as a
WIP-CAP or CONWIP (Constant Work In Process), is very straight-forward:
1. Determine the throughput rate per unit of time for your process. How many people
or widgets per hour can you process?
2. Determine the target cycle time for the process. What do your customers expect
for lead-time?
3. Use Little’s Law to calculate the amount of work you can have in your process.
As you can see, the calculation is not complicated. However, as always, there are a few
more wrinkles that will need to be ironed out.
Step 3 - ANALYZE: Determine the span of the Core Process Pull system.
Several factors impact what portions of the process should have a Core Process Pull
system:
1. Find the Bottleneck: The bottleneck of the process is the step in the process which
is most highly constrained and determines the capacity of the process. WIP will
almost always tend to accumulate in front of the bottleneck, therefore the
bottleneck must be included within the span of the Core Process pull system. In
general, the Core Process Pull system must span every step in the process from the
beginning of the process up to the bottleneck step.
2. What can you See: Another critical factor in determining the span of a Core
Process Pull system is the physical layout of the process. In some cases it is simple
to see the entire process. Perhaps the process exists in a single office or building
and you can easily and reliably see all the exits and entries to the process. In other
cases, the process may span multiple locations, states, countries, and continents.
In this case, it may be very difficult to see the entire process, so you may need to
shorten the span of your Core Process pull system and consider placing several
Core Process Pull systems end-to-end in the process.
In Step 1 you will have collected samples and determined the average
lead-time through the process as well as an estimate of the amount of
variation in that lead-time. The Core Process Pull system will help eliminate
the variation and allow your process to attain a new target lead-time.
Determining the target lead-time is driven by a single factor: Customer
Expectation of Lead-Time (Total Process Cycle Time).
What does your customer, whether internal or external, require of the process? In order
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Step 1 tells us where we are in terms of our current lead-time performance and the
amount of WIP in the process. Step 4 tells us where we need to be in terms of the
future-state lead-time. We can now return to Little’s Law to determine the maximum
amount of WIP we can allow in our process to achieve the lead-time target set by the
customer.
In Step 2 we used Little’s Law to calculate the current lead-time based on the current
WIP in the process. Now, we will rearrange the terms in Little’s Law and use it to
calculate the new WIP target for the process:
The result of this calculation is the WIP CAP that will be used for sizing the Core
Process Pull system.
Three main issues need to be considered when implementing a Core Process Pull
system.
1. Measuring Exits and Entries: The first decision is where to measure the exits and
entries from the process. This is related to the span you determined in Step 3, but
now you will have to implement specific, preferably visual, mechanisms for
measuring the WIP in the process and identifying when an exit has occurred.
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Step 7 - CONTROL: Monitor and Adjust the Core Process Pull System
Every process needs to be monitored and measured to ensure that it remains on target.
For Core Process Pull systems the main metric is Work In Process. A simple dashboard
can be created to log starts, WIP, and exits, or a more complex layout can be created to
help track the flow of WIP through the process. A histogram of actual lead-time results
for the process is useful to make sure the WIP cap is still in place and that proper first-
in-first-out queue discipline is being followed.
When
Core Process Pull Systems provide a containment function around total process cycle
time (or lead time) - to reliably move a process from a state of chaos into a state of
stability.
Core Process Pull Systems are universally applicable to almost any process, and because
they immediately stabilize the cycle time through the process, they are an excellent
"first-responder" tool to make a process leaner. Since stable cycle time is almost always a
critical customer requirement, it would be hard to imagine many continuous
improvement projects being successful if they did not have some ability to control the
cycle time of the process. After achieving cycle time stability, further steps can then be
taken to resolve the root causes of variation and waste.
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Practice
Click on the Practice Icon below to view and answer the practice question:
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Overview
Lean Six Sigma projects focus on bringing about significant process improvement
through the reduction of defects and the elimination of waste. Very often,
sometimes as early as the Define phase of a project, the team becomes aware of
Deeper
low-risk, incremental improvement actions that could be implemented in a short
Dive:
period of time, usually three to five days, while providing an immediate benefit to Kaizen
the organization. Kaizen provides a framework for accelerating and managing the Characteristics
implementation of such actions.
Origins of
Kaizen is a Japanese word derived from two other Japanese Kaizen
words: Kai meaning change and Zen meaning good, improve or
virtuous. In application, Kaizen means to continually change for
Types of
the better through small incremental improvements - typically Kaizen
with little capital cost.
Within the Western world, Kaizen refers to specific team-based activities or events
focused on incremental change. These events are called Kaizen Blitzes, Kaizen
Events, Kaizen Workshops, Rapid Problem Solving or Rapid Improvement Events.
The remainder of this lesson will use the term Kaizen Event. Kaizen Events can be
executed independently or within the context of a Lean Six Sigma project.
Example
Kaizen Examples
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This caused the corporate office to be continually warning that each Friday's payroll
would be in jeopardy unless they worked considerable overtime to make it happen.
A Kaizen Event was held and the first thing the team did was to create a value stream
map of the payroll process. The mapping showed that the corporate office performed
four hours of work on the payroll before authorizing checks to be written. It was
discovered through analysis of lead times that the actual deadline for remote sites
should be Thursday mornings at 8am.
Analysis of time sheets by the Kaizen team showed that the corporate office payroll
employees had not worked any overtime in several months. This conflicted with the
recent weekly warnings from the same employees that payroll was in jeopardy due to
the lateness of the remote sites.
In other words, the corporate office was significantly padding its lead time
requirements. What seemed like a very difficult situation was easily resolved through
the value stream mapping and time sheet analysis activities of the Kaizen Event.
Note in this example that it is quite possible that this problem could have been
addressed by chartering a Lean Six Sigma Project. With an understanding of how Kaizen
works, it is believed that the Lean Six Sigma project team would discover the same
realities by creating a value stream map in the Define phase and quickly implement the
same improvement to the process while also studying other aspects in search of
additional opportunities.
A large international airport in Quebec, Canada distributed one-page airport guides for
its visitors. By Canadian law, the airport had to provide the guide maps in both French
and English. A common problem was that the airport management had a difficult time
predicting which guide a visitor would take - the French version or the English - and
was always running out of one or the other.
How
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This section describes how to organize and manage a team-based Kaizen Event. Kaizen
Events
A Kaizen Event can be a stand-alone activity or employed within the context of a Lean and
DMAIC
Six Sigma project. A typical approach would be to spend a week planning the event –
analogous to the Define phase of DMAIC and another week running the event.
Sufficient time should be allotted between planning and holding the event to allow
participants time to prepare themselves.
The Kaizen Event process will be explained within the context of the Shewhart/Deming
PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) cycle upon which it is based. See the side margin link for
an explanation within the context of DMAIC.
Plan
Prior to holding the Kaizen Event, two to five days of planning and preparation is
necessary.
2. Clearly define the problem and the objective of the Kaizen Event. Many
organizations use their Lean Six Sigma project charter for this step.
3. Identify and notify the Kaizen Event team. Obtain authorization to be relieved
of normal responsibilities for the duration of the Kaizen Event.
3. Go view the process and collect any additional data needed to understand the
situation.
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Do
Check
Act
When
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Practice
Practice - Kaizen
This practice exercise allows you to demonstrate your knowledge of the measurable
benefits a Kaizen event is expected to accomplish.
Click on the Practice Icon below to view and answer the practice question:
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Key:
1. Reference Number - Tracking number that may also be tied in with a project
priority list, or linked to a numbered Cause & Effect (Fishbone) chart.
2. Action - Summary of the improvement action being implemented.
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Piloting Solutions
What happens when a solution is fully implemented without verifying it first? In many Reasons
cases there is no negative impact and the solution is a success. However, there can to
Pilot
often be unanticipated factors that adversely impact or completely negate the intent of
the solution. Piloting a solution means that it is verified on a smaller scale in an
When to
environment that is as close as possible to what is intended. Pilot
There are several reasons why a pilot should be considered and certain circumstances
under which a pilot should be run. The process for executing a pilot is straightforward Pilot
Steps
but there are several critical questions that must be addressed when establishing the
scope and responsibilities.
Critical
To illustrate the importance of the critical questions, consider the case of a Questions
When
multinational operator of fast food restaurants. A new cooking system was designed to Piloting
allow greater flexibility for customization and build-to-order. When the new system
was launched, the chain experienced a significant increase in customer wait time Evaluating
during the rush hours around lunch and dinner. Why? The pilots did not have a broad Pilot
enough scope. They were not conducted during peak times using a full range of Results
customization requests.
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Overview
Introduction
System Diagrams are more than process flow charts. They include feedback loops and
other factors that influence how decisions are made, including attitudes, perceptions,
and behaviors. If you are familiar with the terms "vicious circle", "downward spiral",
"the law of unintended consequences", or "the cure is worse than the disease" you
are familiar with some of the basic concepts of System Dynamics. System Diagrams
provide a common language to help organizations think about these complex issues.
Efforts to improve the performance of complex systems inevitably touch on many areas
directly and indirectly, so it is critically important to understand the potential for
unintended consequences. It is also important to understand the true leverage points
to improve a system, which probably won't be obvious.
Example
-Author Unknown
As you work to understand System Dynamics, you will undoubtedly encounter the Outside
following phenomena, many of which may already be familiar: Research:
System
As George E.P. Box and W. Edwards Deming have said: "All models are wrong. Dynamics
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Some models are useful." * System Dynamics stresses that there is no single
right answer. There are often trade-offs that require choices. Those choices
may be influenced by a particular point of view.
* This quote is variously attributed to both Box and Deming. We're not sure who said it first.
Cause and effect are separated by a lot more time and distance than you
think. Time delays greatly complicate the effort to firmly connect cause with
effect - particularly when there are multiple causes and multiple effects.
in Action
The more you try to improve the system, the stronger the resistance to at Honda
change. This is the result of "balancing loops" - forces that counteract changes. (optional)
There are unintended consequences and indirect effects. Sometimes the most
obvious solution makes a problem worse
Things can get worse before they get better. Consider a company with poor
cash flow that has under-invested in its plant and equipment. In the short term,
catching up on the investment will depress cash flow further, although the long
term impact may be positive.
Reinforcing Loops amplify small changes into big changes.
Creating System Diagrams is the first step to develop the System Thinking skills
needed to understand and manage these complex phenomena.
Example 1
The best way to gain an understanding of Systems Thinking is to review some real
world examples:
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Example 2
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How
To create a system diagram, recall the hierarchy of system understanding - with the
goal of moving away from managing events (reactive) to managing systems and mental
models (proactive):
For an example, we'll use a sales and profitability example from an appliance
manufacturer trapped in a downward spiral of price discounting to maintain sales
volume.
2. Next, look at patterns of behavior. Graph the indicators that help describe the
problem:
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3. Third, identify the activities that are involved, and draw linkages to show forces
and feedback loops, as in the diagram below. Use the 5-Why Analysis from the
Toolbox to help identify the root cause of behaviors and patterns.
Note: In this diagram, all of the feedback loops are Reinforcing Loops, amplifying
the main effect of price discounting - a strong engine of decline.
4. Lastly, examine the mental models (perceptions, attitudes) that perpetuate the
system.
Division President -"We will meet our monthly target no
matter what. If we try to break our price promotion pattern,
sales will suffer, and I'll be looking for a job."
V. P. of Marketing - "My bonus is based on sales growth. If
the logistics people can't meet their budget, that's their
problem."
Salesperson - "I got my orders in during the month, well the
last couple of days, anyhow. The orders are there, so the
logistics people ought to get them shipped so I get my
commission (which is based on sales only, without regard to
costs)."
Customer - " All I have to do is out-wait them for a better
price at the end of the month. They do it every time."
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When
Practice
Click the icon below to practice your skill with system dynamics.
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At this point, you have finished the Improve phase of the D-M-A-I-C cycle, so it's a
good time to check on the deliverables of your project - the critical questions that
should be answered:
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Supplemental Exercises:
Exercises are thought-prompters designed to apply the Six Sigma concepts presented
in this session. Exercises are to be self-scored by referring back to the material in the
session as required. Exercises are also discussed within the Discussion Forum, where
comments may be added by the course instructor.
3. Select one of the other improvement tools presented in this session and apply
it in your Six Sigma project. Example: use Brainstorming to identify
relationships for the Systems Diagram.
Quiz - Overview
Quiz questions are offered to facilitate learning by providing prompt feedback. You
may refer to material previously presented in the session before answering the
questions. If you miss an answer, you will have the option of linking back to the page
from which the question was drawn.
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