Académique Documents
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Developing Countries
2 – Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
2.1 Background ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7
3.2 The construction markets in BRIC countries – employment and value output ------------ 8
3.2.3 Value output of the construction markets in the BRIC countries --------------------- 9
3.3 Reasons for the high growth in construction output in BRIC countries ---------------------- 11
3.4 Measure of GDP in BRIC countries and the impact of the BRIC construction
markets on the global economy --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11
3.4.2 Changes in GDP and GDP per capita in the BRIC countries ----------------------------- 11
3.4.3 The impact of the BRIC construction markets on the global economy ------------- 13
4.2 Overview of the construction market and construction activity in India -------------------- 14
4.3 Key issues facing the Indian construction market and strategies being implemented
to address them ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19
5 – Critique and evaluation of issues & strategies discussed in section 4.3 ------------ 20
5.1 Access to skilled resources ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
Appendices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 25
Tables
Page 9: Table 3.1 – BRIC countries: Number employed in construction industry and percentage
of the total employed population employed in construction; 2005 v 2012
Page 10: Table 3.2 – Value output of construction in BRIC countries in terms of GDP; 2005 v
2013, and subsequent percentage increase in value output from 2005 to 2013
Page 12: Table 3.3 – BRIC countries: GDP and GDP per capita in current prices, as well as GDP
growth rate; for the years 2000, 2005 to 2014
Figures
Page 15: Figure 4.1 – Split in the construction sector between infrastructure and real estate
Page 18: Figure 4.3 – FDI inflows into India and year-on-year percentage change in FDI inflows
from 2000 to 2012
Similarly to all industries, the construction industry has issues which prevent it from
achieving higher productivity and these must be addressed in order to maximise the
effectiveness of the industry.
Methodology
The research methodology for this report comprised a broad literature review which
included journal articles, and reports and surveys produced by industry and governmental
departments.
Results
The main findings of this report were as follows:
- The value of the construction markets in BRIC countries has increased markedly from
2005 to 2013
- Out of the BRIC countries, India had the greatest increase in number of people
working in the construction industry over 2005 to 2012
- In addition to the increase in total number employed in the construction industry over
2005 to 2012 – each country saw an increase in the percentage of people employed in
construction as a percentage of the total employed population
- Two reasons that BRIC countries have high growth in construction output are the
increased movement of people into urban centres and the continuing transformation
of the BRIC economies
- Each BRIC country saw a large increase in nominal GDP and GDP per capita from 2005
to 2013
- The increase in nominal GDP and GDP per capita of the BRIC countries has had a flow
on impact on the global economy
As with any industry, issues arise preventing it from achieving higher productivity. Such
issues in the Indian construction industry include a lack of access to skilled, liquidity
constraints, and difficulties surrounding land acquisition. Some recommendations to address
these issues:
- Government subsidies for the employee or employer for specific types of training
- Creation of strong links between industry and training providers
- Implementation of compulsory amounts of staff training
- Government initiatives to make the construction industry more attractive to students
Liquidity constraints
- In addition to the FDI reforms, address other issues to entice foreign investment e.g.
using examples discussed here - access to skilled resources and land acquisition
Land acquisition
2.2 – Scope
This report will provide an overview of the construction markets in developing countries –
specifically the BRIC countries. Moreover, the impact of these developing construction
markets on the global economy will be assessed. Further detail will be provided regarding the
Indian construction market, including an overview of various challenges facing the industry
and various strategies being employed to address them.
2.3 – Objectives
The objectives of this report are to:
2.4 – Methodology
The research methodology for this report comprised a broad literature review which
included journal articles, and reports and surveys produced by industry and governmental
departments.
The 2001 Goldman Sachs paper explored the economic trajectory of the BRIC countries and
found that collectively, the group would play a progressively significant role in the global
economy (O’Neill 2001). This potential future growth of BRIC countries was modelled in
another Goldman Sachs paper; which predicted that the collective gross domestic product
(GDP - in US$ billions) of the BRIC countries would exceed that of the G7 nations (Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK & USA) sometime between 2030 and 2035 (O’Neill 2007).
As considered by the International Monetary Fund’s April 2015 ‘World Economic Outlook
Report’, the BRIC countries are all considered to be developing economies (International
Money Fund 2015).
Thus, we can use data about the respective construction markets in the BRIC countries to
analyse the increasing impact of developing construction markets on the global economy.
This section aims to quantify the growth of BRIC construction markets in terms of the number
of people employed and the value output of each country’s construction industry.
Table 3.1 contains data for each BRIC country regarding the total number of people employed
in the construction industry and also the percentage of the total employed population
working in the industry.
Naturally, as the population has increased in each country, so too has the total number of
people employed in their respective construction industries. Russia is an outlier of this trend
because between 2005 and 2012 its population actually decreased slightly (The World Bank
2016); but despite this, the number of people employed in its construction industry grew by
0.8 million, from 4.6 million to 5.4 million (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service
2015).
When comparing the 2005 and 2012 figures for the number of people working in the
construction industry as a percentage of the total employed population, we see that Brazil
had an increase from 6.53% to 8.71% (+2.18%). This percentage increase also occurred in
Russia which saw an increase from 6.73% to 7.56% (+0.83%). India had the biggest
percentage increase by far, with a jump from 5.61% to 10.61% (+5.00%). And finally, China
had an increase from 3.62% to 5.57% (+1.95%) (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics
Service 2015) & (National Bureau of Statistics of China 2014).
Summary
This data shows us that in addition to BRIC countries seeing an increase in the total number
of people working in the construction industry; they have also had an increase in the
percentage of their total employed population working in construction.
Table 3.1 – BRIC countries: Number employed in construction industry and percentage of the
total employed population employed in construction; 2005 v 2012
Source – Data compiled using (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service 2015)
& (National Bureau of Statistics of China 2014)
Table 3.2 shows that from 2005 to 2013, each BRIC country had an increase in the value
output of construction – Russia’s increased from RUB1,711 billion to RUB6,019 billion, India’s
increased from INR2,686 billion to INR8,184 billion, and China’s increased from RMB1,037
billion to RMB4,473 billion. Brazil’s data is slightly different and shows an increase from
BRL100 billion to BRL325 billion over the period of 2005 to 2015 (Russian Federation Federal
Further, Table 3.2 shows the percentage increase of the value output of construction for each
BRIC country. From 2005 to 2013, Russia had a 251.8% increase, India had a 204.7% increase
and China had a 331.4% increase; and from 2005 to 2015, Brazil saw a 225.0% increase
(Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service 2015), (Ernst & Young 2014), (PMR 2016),
(EuropaProperty.com 2015), (FIESP 2012) & (BMI Research 2016).
Table 3.2 – Value output of construction in BRIC countries in terms of GDP; 2005 v 2013, and
subsequent percentage increase in value output from 2005 to 2013.
Source – Data compiled using (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service 2015),
(Ernst & Young 2014), (PMR 2016), (EuropaProperty.com 2015), (FIESP 2012) & (BMI
Research 2016)
*2015 data for construction value output
**2005-2015 percentage increase
Key: BRL = Brazilian Real; RUB = Russian Ruble; INR = Indian Rupee; RMB = Renminbi =
Chinese Yuan
It is clear that each BRIC country has had a large increase in their construction industry’s
value output over the period of 2005 to 2013. As will be discussed in section 3.4, this
information allows us to analyse how the BRIC construction markets have impacted on the
global economy.
A major reason for the high growth in construction output is the increased migration of
people into urban centres – this is no exception for the BRIC countries which have many major
cities that continue to increase in population, some examples being Mumbai, Sao Paulo,
Shanghai and Moscow (Miller 2013).
As more people move to urban centres, there is an increased need to deliver infrastructure
related to housing, commercial services, social services and provisions for services including
potable water, electricity and sewage. Delivery of this infrastructure is critical to maintain the
quality of life in such centres with burgeoning populations (Miller 2013).
Another reason for the large growth in construction output in BRIC countries is their
continuation down the road of economic transformation. Over the last 30 years, BRIC
countries have achieved a dramatic structural change in their economies; overall there has
been an evolution away from low-productivity activities (such as traditional agriculture) to
higher-productivity activities (such as manufacturing and service provision) (Naude, Szirmai
& Haraguchi 2016).
This transition from low to high productivity activities has required a concurrent increase in
infrastructure in order to support the new industries; which tend to be more capital intensive
(Naude, Szirmai & Haraguchi 2016).
3.4 – Measures of GDP in BRIC countries and the impact of the BRIC
construction markets on the global economy
3.4.1 – Introduction
This section will analyse the impact of the BRIC construction markets on the global economy.
It includes information about the increases in GDP and GDP per capita of the BRIC countries
and how the construction industry relates to these increases.
3.4.2 – Changes in GDP and GDP per capita in the BRIC countries
Table 3.3 contains information about the BRIC countries regarding changes in GDP and GDP
per capita.
Changes in GDP
As can be seen from Table 3.3 there has been an increase in the GDP of all the BRIC countries
from 2005 to 2013 – Brazil’s has increased from US$892 billion to US$2,391 billion, Russia
from US$764 billion to US$2,080 billion, India from US$834 billion to US$1,875 billion, and
China from US$2,269 billion to US$9,495 billion (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics
Service 2015).
Further from Table 3.3, along with the nominal rise in GDP, the BRIC countries have seen a
significant increase in per capita GDP from 2005 to 2013. Brazil’s increased from US$4,817
to US$11,892, Russia’s increased from US$5,323 to US$14,494, India’s increased from US$754
to US$1,499 and China’s increased from US$1,741 to US$6.995 (Russian Federation Federal
State Statistics Service 2015).
In terms of percentage increase in GDP per capita from 2005 to 2013, this equates to a 146.9%
increase for Brazil, 172.3% for Russia, 98.8% for India, and 301.8% for China (Russian
Federation Federal State Statistics Service 2015). Again, contrastingly, during the same time
period, the G7 countries had percentage increases in GDP per capita as follows; Canada –
44.2%, USA – 19.7%, the UK – 4.6%, France – 21.9%, Italy – 12.4%, Germany – 33.5%, and
Japan – 8.0% (The World Bank 2016).
Summary
It is evident that there has been a huge increase in nominal GDP and GDP per capita in the
BRIC countries from 2005 to 2013 – most notably from China which recorded an incredible
318.5% increase in nominal GDP and 301.8% increase in GDP per capita (Russian Federation
Federal State Statistics Service 2015). This is in stark contrast to more economically
developed countries which have shown much more restrained levels of growth in GDP and
GDP per capita (The World Bank 2016) as is consistent with more developed nations.
Table 3.3 – BRIC countries: GDP and GDP per capita in current prices for the years 2000, 2005
to 2014
Using the ideas expressed above, we can extrapolate that the increased activity in the
construction industry has a direct flow-on multiplier effect on the expansion of a nation’s
economy through utilisation of the infrastructure provided by the construction industry.
Thus, the large increases in construction activity in the BRIC countries over 2005 to 2013
have led to a concurrent rise in GDP and GDP per capita.
Naturally, this increased economic size of BRIC countries means they are playing an
increasingly significant role in the global economy (Naude, Szirmai & Haraguchi 2016). The
total GDP produced by BRIC countries has been increasing as a proportion of the total world
GDP. From around 10% in 2005, the BRIC share of global GDP rose roughly to 22% in 2015
(Talley 2016); a testament to their increasing importance in the global economy.
As per Table 3.2, the value of India’s construction industry increased from INR2,686
billion to INR8,184 billion over the period of 2005 to 2013; equating to a percentage
increase of 204.7% (Ernst & Young 2014). In 2012, The value of India’s construction
industry accounted for about 8.2% of its GDP (KPMG 2016).
Over the period of 2015 to 2024, India’s construction industry is predicted to grow at
7-8% per annum (dmg events 2015); and by 2025, it is predicted that India will be the
world’s 3rd largest construction market (Deloitte 2014).
Main growth drivers for India’s construction market leading to 2025 (dmg events 2015):
- Increasing urban population which is expected to soon approach 40% of the total
population. This ongoing rapid urbanization will require extensive infrastructure
to support it
- Urban housing shortage is currently estimated to be 18.8 million dwellings; along with
the rural housing shortage, estimated in 2012 to be 47.4 million dwellings. The Indian
Government has already announced its vision of ‘Housing for all by 2022’ and has
begun to implement various measures to increase the provision of affordable housing
(Ernst & Young 2014)
- Construction and renewal of urban infrastructure which is becoming increasingly
inadequate to meet the needs of the population
In 2012 the percentage share of infrastructure and real estate in the Indian construction
market was 40% and 60% respectively. This trend is predicted to continue until the end of
2016 (KPMG 2016).
Infrastructure construction refers to power & utility projects, transport projects and other
civil works; while real estate refers to residential, commercial and industrial & other
buildings.
Figure 4.1 – Split in the construction sector between infrastructure and real estate
Source – (KPMG 2016)
Real estate
In India, real estate is one of the largest and fastest growing sectors. In 2012-13 the sector
contributed to 4.8% of India’s total GDP. Moreover, it is predicted that the 2012-13 real estate
value of INR4,551 billion will increase to INR13,250 by 2023. Further, by 2025, the sector is
predicted to provide employment for more than 17 million people. The increasing demand
for this sector will be driven by the urban and rural housing shortage, continued expansion
of offices in Tier-II and Tier-III cities and increased demand in the retail, hospital and tourism
sectors (KPMG 2016).
By 2017 the Infrastructure segment is predicted to be worth over INR4,774 billion; further
increasing to INR8,674 billion by 2023. There are currently over 1,000 PPPs in the pipeline
(public private partnerships) valued altogether around US$97 billion – thus the
infrastructure sector is set for increasing growth in the coming years (KPMG 2016).
As per Table 3.1; from 2005 to 2012, India saw its construction labour force (CLF) increase
from 22.9 million to 44.6 million (+21.7 million). Moreover, as a percentage of total employed
population working in the construction industry, India had a percentage increase from 5.61%
to 10.61% (+5.00%) (Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service 2015).
The number employed in the construction industry is expected to increase further to 59.4
million in 2017 and 76.6 million by 2022 (KPMG 2016).
The Indian construction industry is the second largest employers of seasonal workers after
agriculture. As shown by Figure 4.1, in 2011 more than 80% of those employed in the sector
were minimally skilled, with the remaining 20% accounting for Engineers, Clerical Workers,
Technicians/Foremen and Skilled Labour. Worryingly, only around a third of all construction
workers are legally registered contractors (KPMG 2016).
Source – (KPMG 2016)
The construction industry is undergoing a ‘paradigm shift’ in response to the increased rate
of mechanisation. As a result of demand for fast track completion, construction projects are
demanding increasing levels of mechanisation. As more machinery is employed, the
productivity of the workforce increases; to the point where, at the present time, due to the
use of pre-fabricated structures – the construction of a half million square feet requires only
about 200 labourers, when in 2002 it would have required 700-800 (KPMG 2016).
The Indian government has been using Five-Year Plans (FYPs) since 1947 as a way to plan
allocation of their resources in alignment with their particular goals at the time. Examples of
targets included in FYPs; a certain percentage of GDP growth, percentage reduction in
poverty, total increase in renewable energy output (Planning Commission 2015).
The planning commission has projected an investment of US$1 trillion into the infrastructure
sector for the Twelfth FYP (2012-2017). This has increased from previous FYPs – the Eleventh
FYP had an investment of US$450 billion in infrastructure, and the preceding Tenth FYP had
an investment of US$250 billion (KPMG 2014).
The investments from the tenth and eleventh FYPs were spread across many infrastructure
sectors; including roads and highways, airports, telecom, ports, power, oil and gas, and
railways – all of which have contributed to the Indian economy attaining an improved growth
trajectory in the last ten years leading to 2012.
The large increase in investment for infrastructure between the various FYPs is largely
accounted for in the increasing percentage of the investment sourced from the private sector.
In the tenth FYP, the private sector accounted for 22% of investment while the eleventh FYP
had 37% of private sector investment. The twelfth FYP is predicted to be made up of 48%
private investment (Ernst & Young 2014).
The government’s increased projected investment for the twelfth FYP shows their
commitment to developing the country’s infrastructure and confirms that they recognise its
important role in the continued economic progress of the country (Deloitte 2014).
In equivalent terms, the value of the twelfth FYP is INR56.31 trillion. This amounts to a
construction opportunity of around INR26.7 trillion (Ernst & Young 2014). Appendix A shows
the value of the infrastructure investment and the respective construction opportunity for
each sector.
Figure 4.2 shows us the value of the FDI inflows into India and also the year-on-year
percentage change in FDI inflows from from 2000 to 2012. The figure shows a relatively
consistent and subdued level of FDI from the early to mid 2000s, which then increased
markedly from 2006 onwards to a higher average level. In 2005 we see that the FDI into India
was about US$8 billion. A peak was reached during 2011 with about US$45 billion FDI,
decreasing to around US$35 billion the following year in 2012. The variable value of the FDI
inflows results in a wavering year-on-year percentage change (Deloitte 2014).
In order to attract the huge investment needed to reach the twelfth FYP US$1 trillion
investment projection; the Indian government has introduced easing reforms for FDI across
15 sectors. A few of these sectors include construction, defence, banking, single brand retail,
broadcasting and civil aviation. These reforms were implemented quite recently in late 2015
with the aim of increasing the foreign investment into the country (Arun 2015).
The FDI reforms are expected to increase the attractiveness of foreign investment in India,
and if successful, by 2020 it is expected that FDI inflow will be around US$180 billion (KPMG
2016).
Figure 4.3 – FDI inflows into India and year-on-year percentage change in FDI inflows from
2000 to 2012
Adrian Castro Page 18
4.3 Key issues facing the Indian construction market and strategies
being implemented to address them
4.3.1 – Access to skilled resources
As discussed in 4.2.4, the majority of the Indian construction workforce is unskilled and also
unregistered. This poses challenges for India in terms of quality management. Moreover,
there is a scarcity of skilled labour which only represents about 9% of the total construction
workforce (KPMG 2016). A lack of senior oversight leads to many Indian construction teams
taking short-cuts on safety and quality. Thus, a lack of expertise can be severely detrimental
to the project’s success (Gale 2012).
Moreover, a large proportion of the construction workforce are seasonal in nature; seeking
employment in the construction industry on an infrequent basis. This leads to a need for
repeat training each time the worker re-enters the industry; with skills previously learnt
having to be re-taught (KPMG 2016).
The Indian government, at both central and state levels are actively implementing skills
development programs in order increase the number of skilled personnel (Deloitte 2014).
To combat the issue, some contractors have taken their own initiative by putting newly hired
employees through project management and engineering training courses in order to upskill
them before the project even begins (Gale 2012).
As a result of financial institutions tightening their funding flows – many construction majors
are experiencing liquidity constraints (Deloitte 2014).
The Indian government has taken various steps in order to increase the ease of access to
funding for infrastructure and construction (Deloitte 2014):
Permission for FDI up to 100% has been implemented in many sectors, meaning that prior
approval through the government or reserve bank is not needed to access foreign capital.
The central government has also set up the India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd.
(IIFCL), which specifically lends money to the construction sector.
Also, a range of infrastructure bodies and financial organisations have been permitted to issue
long term infrastructure bonds.
Disagreements over ‘land rights’ and ‘eminent domain’ can set back a project for years and a
huge proportion of infrastructure projects end up being delayed as a result. It often takes the
average PPP project five years to receive approval (Miller 2013).
The Indian government introduced the land acquisition bill at the start of 2014. Their
intention was to speed up the process for acquiring land for developers whilst also attempting
to maintain the interests of the landowners. Unfortunately, the bill has done little to improve
the situation and has actually added an additional layer of bureaucracy and negotiation.
Moreover, it has increased the transaction costs of land acquisition (Hixon 2014).
Though, like any industry, there are issues which prevent it from performing at its maximum
productivity. In this case, the discussion has been in regards to India’s construction industry
problems around inadequate access to skilled workers, liquidity constraints and land
acquisition. Each issue hinders the productivity of the construction industry in a different
way and each has different solutions. The Indian government and industry have implemented
some strategies to address each issue; with some being more successful than others.
Ultimately, the solutions to these and other problems facing the construction industry are key
to a more productive industry.
6.2 – Recommendations
6.2.1 – Access to skilled resources
One way to build on the FDI reforms is to make it even more enticing for foreigners to consider
investing by working on improving other issues. For example, a case could be made with the
examples discussed in this report; if the construction industry had better access to skilled
workers and an easier process for land acquisition foreign investors would find the prospect
of investing more enticing.
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Appendix A
Source – (Ernst & Young 2014)