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Austin McNeill

Phillips

AP English Language and Composition

13 December 2017

The Threat of External Influence in Lebanon

The Middle East is one of the most conflict-ridden regions in the world. Dangerous,

chaotic, and controversial are words associated with the area in the West, yet many Westerners

choose not to concern themselves with understanding what is happening there. The root of the

conflict lies in the divide in Islam, and the two powerful countries that primarily drive each

faction’s interest. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran have been engaged in a cold war for years,

fight not directly, but instead sponsoring like-minded groups in other countries. Now Lebanon, a

country just north of Israel, is in danger of being drawn into this cold war. Because of political

escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Lebanon will become the next stage for the war,

destabilizing the social order and shattering its fragile economy.

At the center of political controversy is the influence on the Lebanese government by the

Shia party Hezbollah. ​Egypt Today​ journalist Joseph Colonna explained how Hezbollah relates

to Iranian influence in the Middle East. He relays that it has become the dominant political force

in Lebanon, and is backed by Iran (Colonna). The hatred between the Shia, Sunni, and Jewish

peoples runs long and deep, and these differing beliefs put it at odds with Israel and Saudi

Arabia. Any conflicts between the nations are compounded by this predisposition, which is

presently the occuring case.

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The primary ongoing issue stems from Hezbollah’s interactions regarding the Islamic

State, which has been prevalent in Syria, Lebanon’s only other bordering country. ​CTC Sentinel

journalist Nicholas Blanford reports that Hezbollah has been interfering in the fight against ISIS,

upstaging the Lebanese Armed Forces. Unlike the LAF, Hezbollah has the resources to protect

Lebanon, and they argue this as the reason they should be in power (Blanford). The impact of

this is twofold: It both cements Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon, and provokes outside

intervention due to Hezbollah’s overreach. This indirect invitation may be accepted.

Saudi Arabia has been making aggressive moves toward Lebanon, trying to find an

excuse to intrude. An article by ​The Economist​ examines Hezbollah’s influence and how it

relates to Saudi Arabia. After leaving Lebanon fearing assassination, Lebanon prime minister

Saad Hariri announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia and cited Hezbollah and Iran as toxic

influences (“Mysterious”). ​The Economist​ suggests that Saudi Arabia planned to make plain

Hezbollah’s control, and that without the unifying prime minister this would be evident. In

addition, Saudi Arabian “officials blamed Iran and Hizbullah for a missile fired at Riyadh from

Yemen,” and they “called it an ‘act of war’” (“Mysterious”). Both of these incidents threaten to

draw Lebanon into a proxy war by allowing Saudi Arabian interference. Hezbollah is considered

a terrorist group by other countries, including Israel and the United States, so having them

publically control a country would beg invasion (“Mysterious”). Saad Hariri’s resignation

announcement seems very suspicious as a result. The effects of a war like this would be

disastrous for Lebanon.

While the exact impact cannot be predicted, Yemen provides a model for the chaos to be

caused by such a war. In analyzing Iran’s reach, Joseph Colonna says that Saudi Arabia helps
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maintain the government of Yemen in a proxy war against Iran-sponsored Houthi rebels. As Iran

backs the Lebanese government, the situation is inverted yet analogous. The conflict began

because of a division between the government and the people who are governed, and escalated

when outside powers got involved. Journalist Jonah Shepp from the ​Daily Intelligencer​ analyzes

the breakdown in Yemen. It is in chaos, with violence in civilian areas, and a cholera outbreak

having recently wracked the country (Shepp). The condition of Yemen is grave, and Hezbollah’s

is in a position to exert power over Lebanon that could incite similar incidents.

Hezbollah is able and willing to take control of the area with more than political means.

An ​Egypt Today​ article describing Hezbollah and the controversy surrounding them elucidates

their means of action. They have access to large military and monetary resources, and have

declared their goal to be the expulsion or annihilation of western influences, Israel, and any of

their other enemies (“Hezbollah”). With such a radical position they will likely also oppress any

dissenters and Sunni muslims that disagree with them. This will only add to the social discord,

especially if they are moved to violent means with the advent of a war in their home. In the event

of this conflict, the effect on societal order would plague Lebanon for decades.

Through disregard for human rights on both sides, Yemen’s destabilization has resulted

in horrendous suffering. An article by ​Egypt Today​ documents the International Committee of

the Red Cross’s president’s reaction to the situation. It reports that “over 3 million people have

fled … , and more than 20 million are in need of humanitarian assistance” (“ICRC”). The

president has affirmed that the “‘cholera outbreak is a … direct consequence of a conflict that

has devastated civilian infrastructure and brought the whole health system to its knees’”

(“ICRC”). Lastly, “at least 10 families… every week… report a missing loved one” (“ICRC”).
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With so much chaos and violence, it becomes impossible for a society to hold a stable way of

life. How can someone go to work, go to school, go out to get life’s necessities, or even enjoy

themselves with friends and family when explosives are being set off in civilian areas? When a

country becomes war-torn like this, regular interaction is untenable, and children cannot be

raised the way a healthy society requires. When even the youth of a civilization are affected, it

causes long-term damage. The damage of the war would extend beyond its duration, and beyond

the societal impacts.

The damage also extends to the economy. Jonah Shepp is a journalist at the ​Daily

Intelligencer​ who published an article analyzing the cause of Yemen’s humanitarian catastrophe.

Due to trade obstructions by Saudi Arabia and its allies trying to harm the Houthi Rebellion,

millions in Yemen are starving (Shepp). Without any trade and with constant violence

widespread people cannot work even if they could find jobs, and without work they cannot eat.

This type of economic isolation causes the economy to break down along with its society.

Economic damage would be just as ruinous in Lebanon.

Economically, Lebanon is vulnerable to these trade restrictions, especially from Saudi

Arabia. The famine and cholera outbreak that have gripped Yemen would certainly be a problem,

but Lebanon heavily relies on its foreign interaction. In its article about Hezbollah, ​The

Economist​ also analyzes economic consequences, stating that a large portion of Lebanon’s

income is brought in by workers in the Saudi Arabian controlled gulf (“Mysterious”). Sanctions

against Lebanon would sever that connection. Given that Lebanon has “one of the highest

debt-to-GDP ratios” globally, that is an important dependency (“Mysterious”). The war’s impact

would possibly be fatal.

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This conflict seems imminent, but it can be prevented. The political advancements of

Saudi Arabia upon Lebanon as of late have narrowly missed the fuse of the bomb that Lebanon

seems to be, but the tension remains. Saudi Arabia was convinced to relent in its attempts to

incite conflict in Lebanon by moderating Western powers (“Mysterious”). However, with the

devastating effects this proxy war would have on Lebanon, and with the threat still hanging over

the country, the other countries of the world cannot sit by contentedly. Other world powers,

especially the UN, need to step in and make clear that this aggression is unacceptable, before it is

too late for Lebanon and its citizens.

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Works Cited

Blanford, Nicholas. "The Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah's competing summer offensives

against Sunni militants." ​CTC Sentinel​, Sept. 2017, p. 27+. ​General OneFile​,

link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A508201443/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=b3d63537.

Accessed 4 Dec. 2017.

Colonna, Joseph. "KSA, Israel & Iran: The battle of the Middle East." ​Egypt Today​, 22 Nov.

2017. ​General OneFile​,

link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A515368141/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=31d4eeca.

Accessed 4 Dec. 2017.

"Hezbollah: What's the Fuss?" ​Egypt Today​, 4 Dec. 2017. ​General OneFile​,

link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A517249195/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=8e8a36a8.

Accessed 8 Dec. 2017.

"ICRC president visits Yemen, decries 'needless suffering'." ​Egypt Today​, 24 July 2017. ​General

OneFile​,

link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A509547381/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=50f70acf.

Accessed 4 Dec. 2017.

"The mysterious Mr Hariri; Lebanese politics." ​The Economist​, 18 Nov. 2017, p. 42(US). ​Global

Issues in Context​,

link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A514634797/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=279619ca.

Accessed 4 Dec. 2017.

Shepp, Jonah. "The United States Is Complicit in the Destruction of Yemen." ​Daily

Intelligencer​, 8 Aug. 2017. ​General OneFile​,

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link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A500091156/GPS?u=rale84535&sid=GPS&xid=0979bbfb.

Accessed 4 Dec. 2017.