Demanda nacional máxima (em 2028)

Demanda atendida máxima de (em 2028) - Estima-se atender 1/6 da demanda

Volume de cada unidade (L)
Produção em L/ano
Produção em L/dia
Produção em L/h (planta funcionando 8 horas/dia)

Propriedades
Princípio ativo Permetrina Massa molar (kg/mol) Densidade (kg/L)
Composição (%v/v) 0.05 0.391228 1.19
Produção de Permetrina em L/ano 3.75E+03
Produção de Permetrina em kg/ano 4.46E+03

Reagentes mínimos necessários para síntese de permetrina

Massa necessária
Nome Massa molar (kg/mol) Preço ($/kg) (kg) -
estequiometria 1:1

Álcool 3-Fenoxibenzil 0.200 13.5 2.28E+03

Cloreto de ácido permétrico 0.228 8367 2.60E+03
Total ($/ano)

Permetrina ($/kg) 24.4

Se fosse comprado esse reagente ($/ano) $108,885.00

Conclusão Comprar a permetrina é mais vantajoso

 150000000 Matéria Prima
nda 25000000 1 Composto Função
0.3 Permetrina Príncípio Ativo
7500000 Aletrina Príncípio Ativo
20547.94520548 n-metilpirrolidona Conservante
2568.493150685 Óleo de pinho Tensoativo
Água Solvente
Propano Propelente

Custo total anual $ 6,812,184.98

Custo ($)

$30,833.14
$21,713,508.96
$21,744,342.10
Proporção (%) Produção (L) Massa específica (kg/L) Produção (Kg) Preço ($/Kg)
0.05 3750 1.1 4125 24.4
0.02 1500 1.1 1650 60
0.1 7500 1.2 9000 20
5 375000 0.9 337500 14
2 150000 1 150000 0.0022818009

Fonte (preço do óleo de pinho) https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_producer_price_ind

Fonte (preço da Permetrina e aletrInternational Drug Price
Fonte (preço da água) https://www.documentador.pr.gov.br/documentador/p
Fonte (Preço propano) http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodi

Fonte (preço da n-metilpirrolidonahttp://es.eschemy.com/china/n-methyl-pyrrolidone

 Custo anual
$ 100,650.00
$ 99,000.00
$ 180,000.00
$ 4,725,000.00
$ 342.27
$ 1,707,192.71

cators/us_producer_price_index_surface_active_agent_manufacturing_surfactants_yearly

dor.pr.gov.br/documentador/pub.do?action=d&uuid=@gtf-escriba-agepar@d0fe41fd-501b-4ea9-8af4-ab83fb7cf044&emPg=true
com/commodities/?commodity=propane&months=120&currency=brl

hina/n-methyl-pyrrolidone
f044&emPg=true
 2018 2028
Demanda de inseticida (latas) 91146000 150000000
Volume por lata de 300 mL (L) 0.3 0.3
Demanda volumétrica (L) 27343800 45000000
Volume (m³/dia) 74.91 123.29
Gap de demanda (m³/dia) 48.37

Produção esperada (m³/dia) 20.55

Produção de latas por dia (considerando 6 68493

dias de operação por semana)

Produção de latas por hora (considerando 8562

jornada de 8 horas)
Densidade do conteúdo da lata (kg/m³) 750
Produção mássica diária (kg) 15410.96
Vazão mássica (kg/s) 0.54
 Cálculo de ISBL
Equipamentos Valor não corrigido Valor corrigido para 2017
Tanques $ 512,931.49 $ 499,770.40
Válvulas $ 1,518.48 $ 1,479.52
Bombas $ 314,554.29 $ 306,483.28

Envasadora (1200 latas/hora) $ 2,140,410.96 $ 2,085,491.07

Total $ 2,969,415.22 $ 2,893,224.27

Os índices anuais foram utilizados para corrigir os valores dos equipamentos para
o ano atual.

Obs: Abas de equipamentos ocultadas

Índice anual
2012 584.6
2017 569.6
Envasadora comercial com capacidade de
1200 latas/hora

Unidades necessárias 7
http://aeromag.com.br/ Preço
Considerando que a planta opere ao máximo - dimensionaram-se os equipamentos adotados na planta: os tanques de mistur
filtro e envasadora

Dados de dimensionamento
Vazão mássica diária (kg/dia) 15411.0
Vazão mássica por segundo 0.535
Cp (considerando o mesmo de óleo - 2000
Incropera)
Viscosidade média do material (Pa.s) 0.000026
Condutividade da tubulação (aço) 51.6

Número de Prandtl 0.000999

Diâmetro da tubulação (m) 0.07

Reynolds 377543
Nusselt 17.80
Coeficiente convectivo (W/m².k) 91.8
Diferença de temperatura 53.0
Calor trocado (W) 56720.9
Área de troca (m²) 11.65
Densidade média do óleo (kg/m³) 900.00
Vazão volumétrica (m³/s) 0.000595
Volume (m³) 17.12
Altura (em m - considerando mesmas 2.79
dimensões de diâmetro e altura)
 adotados na planta: os tanques de mistura, as bombas, ciclone, válvulas,
dora

Dados de custo - Referência: Alberton (grupo de reatores

encamisados entre 0,5 e 25 m³)
a1 13000

b1 34000

Fator nacional 1.14

Temperatura de projeto (0 até 100 C) 2
Fator de correção para material (fm) - Aço 1
carbono
Fator Q 8.561644
M1 0.5
Custo Unitário $ 256,465.74
Custo total dos tanques $ 512,931.49
 Dados de dimensionamento
Vazão mássica diária (kg/dia) 15411.0
Vazão mássica por segundo 0.535
Rendimento da bomba 0.8
Altura 2.79
Densidade do fluido (kg/m³) 900.00
Velocidade de escoamento (m/s) 0.118284
Diâmetro da tubulação (m) 0.08
Diferencial de pressão (Pa) - equação de 24671.0775476647
Bernoulli
Potência da bomba (kW) 16.5019514847
Potência das três bombas (kW) 49.5058544541
Dados de custo - Referência: Alberton (grupo de bombas
grandes - Potência maior do que 4 kW)
Capacidade base 1
expoente M 0.55
Custo base 9840
Fator de correção da pressão 1
Fator de correção da temperatura 2
Fator nacional 1.14

Custo unitário das bombas $ 104,851.43

Custo Total $ 314,554.29

 Equipamento Potência (kW) Energia (kWmês)
Tanque de mistura 113.44 1633561.64
Bomba 49.51 712884.30
Envasadora 26.40 380136.99
Escritório 4.27 61440.00
Total 193.61 2788022.93

Custo de energia mensal R$ 1,087,886.55

Tarifa energética (PR) 0.3902 Fonte http://www.copel.com/hpcopel/root/nive
Custo de energia anual R$ 13,054,638.59

Gás propelente (propano)

Preço do galão R$ 2.97 fonte http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie
Fator de conversão galão - m³ 0.003785
Custo mensal de propano R$ 483,704.60

Água
Volume - m³ 30
Custo ($/m³) 126.129
/hpcopel/root/nivel2.jsp?endereco=%2Fhpcopel%2Froot%2Fpagcopel2.nsf%2F5d546c6fdeabc9a1032571000064b22e%2Fc28b22b01ad91

di.com/commodities/?commodity=propane&months=120&currency=brl
2e%2Fc28b22b01ad9182403257488005939bb
 Cálculo de ISBL
Equipamentos Valor não corrigido Valor corrigido para 2017
Tanques $ 512,931.49 $ 499,770.40
Válvulas $ 1,518.48 $ 1,479.52
Bombas $ 314,554.29 $ 306,483.28

Envasadora (1200 latas/hora) $ 2,140,410.96 $ 2,085,491.07

Total $ 2,969,415.22 $ 2,893,224.27

Os índices anuais foram utilizados para corrigir os valores dos equipamentos para o ano atual.

Obs: Abas de equipamentos ocultadas

Custo utilidades - OSBL (anual)

Utilidades Valor (R$) Valor ($)
Água R$ 4,928.40 $ 1,502.56
Energia elétrica R$ 13,054,638.59 $ 3,980,072.74

Funcionários + Obras + Terreno R$ 2,846,932.68 $ 867,967.28

Total R$ 15,906,499.67 $ 4,849,542.58

Custo com água

Volume total utilizado (m3/ano) Preço (R$/ano)
360 4928.4
 Índice anual
2012 584.6
2017 569.6

Custo total $ 7,742,766.85

 Plano para 10 anos de produção
Ano Unidades vendidas esperada Receita esperada Capacidade da planta (%)
2017 0 0 0
2018 12500000 $ 26,250,000.00 50
2019 12500000 $ 26,250,000.00 50
2020 15000000 $ 40,500,000.00 60
2021 17500000 $ 47,250,000.00 70
2022 20000000 $ 54,000,000.00 80
2023 22500000 $ 60,750,000.00 90
$80,000,000
2024 25000000 $ 67,500,000.00 100
2025 25000000 $ 67,500,000.00 100 $70,000,000
2026 25000000 $ 67,500,000.00 100 $60,000,000
2027 25000000 $ 67,500,000.00 100
$50,000,000
2028 25000000 $ 67,500,000.00 100
$40,000,000

$30,000,000

$20,000,000

$10,000,000

$
 Preço unitário (inicial) $ 2.10
Preço unitário $ 2.70

Custo total no primeiro ano $ 14,554,951.84

Receita x Ano
$80,000,000.00

$70,000,000.00

$60,000,000.00

$50,000,000.00

$40,000,000.00

$30,000,000.00

$20,000,000.00

$10,000,000.00

$-
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
 n
Fator de Lang 4.28
IF  f lang   C i
IF $ 33,139,042.14
i
Capital de Giro $ 828,908.75
Itotal $ 6,365,093.40
ITotal  I Fixo  CG
I Fixo  1,91* ISBL
CG  0,2865* ISBL
ITotal  2,2 * ISBL
Ano Capacidade da planta (%) Receita bruta ($) Lucro líquido (R$)
2017 0 $ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84
2018 50 $ 26,250,000.00 $ 18,112,308.03
2019 50 $ 26,250,000.00 $ 18,112,308.03
2020 60 $ 40,500,000.00 $ 32,362,308.03
2021 70 $ 47,250,000.00 $ 39,112,308.03
2022 80 $ 54,000,000.00 $ 45,862,308.03
2023 90 $ 60,750,000.00 $ 52,612,308.03
2024 100 $ 67,500,000.00 $ 59,362,308.03
2025 100 $ 67,500,000.00 $ 59,362,308.03
2026 100 $ 67,500,000.00 $ 59,362,308.03
2027 100 $ 67,500,000.00 $ 59,362,308.03
2028 100 $ 67,500,000.00 $ 59,362,308.03

Custo variável total $ 6,812,184.98

Custo fixo total $ 7,742,766.85
Custo total $ 14,554,951.84

Cálculo de ISBL
Equipamentos Valor corrigido para 2017
Tanques $ 499,770.40
Válvulas $ 1,479.52
Bombas $ 306,483.28
Envasadora (1200 latas/hora) $ 2,085,491.07
Total $ 2,893,224.27
Depreciação
$ 44,979.34
$ 133.16
$ 27,583.50
$ 187,694.20
$ 260,390.18
 Lucro Operacional (R$) Depreciação (R$) Receita após Imposto de renda
$ -14,554,951.84
$ 22,448,982.40 $ 260,390.18 $ 25,855,074.89
$ 22,448,982.40 $ 260,390.18 $ 25,855,074.89
$ 36,017,763.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 40,105,074.89
$ 42,086,545.40 $ 260,390.18 $ 46,855,074.89
$ 48,155,326.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 53,605,074.89
$ 54,224,108.40 $ 260,390.18 $ 60,355,074.89
$ 60,292,889.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 67,105,074.89
$ 60,292,889.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 67,105,074.89
$ 60,292,889.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 67,105,074.89
$ 60,292,889.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 67,105,074.89
$ 60,292,889.90 $ 260,390.18 $ 67,105,074.89

Imposto
$ 68,218.66
$ 201.95
$ 41,834.97
$ 284,669.53
$ 394,925.11
 Ano Lucro Líquido TMA Valores Presentes Payback ROI
2017 $ -14,554,951.84 0.15 $ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84 0.00
2018 $ 18,112,308.03 0.15 $ 15,749,833.07 $ 1,194,881.24 0.24
2019 $ 18,112,308.03 0.15 $ 13,695,507.02 $ 14,890,388.26 0.24
2020 $ 32,362,308.03 0.15 $ 21,278,742.85 $ 36,169,131.11 1.22
2021 $ 39,112,308.03 0.15 $ 22,362,589.06 $ 58,531,720.17 1.69
2022 $ 45,862,308.03 0.15 $ 22,801,672.58 2.15
2023 $ 52,612,308.03 0.15 $ 22,745,752.65 2.61
2024 $ 59,362,308.03 0.15 $ 22,316,490.36 3.08
2025 $ 59,362,308.03 0.15 $ 19,405,643.80 3.08
2026 $ 59,362,308.03 0.15 $ 16,874,472.87 3.08
2027 $ 59,362,308.03 0.15 $ 14,673,454.67 3.08
2028 $ 59,362,308.03 0.15 $ 12,759,525.80 3.08
Total $ 190,108,732.88
Taxa Interna de retorno 146%
Valor Presente Líquido $ 83,343,145.73
Payback (anos) 0.9340

Fluxo de Caixa
70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000
Lucro Líquido

30000000

20000000

10000000

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
-10000000

-20000000

Ano
Investimento de baixíssmo risco 10%
Montante R$ 41,526,976.24

O projeto é viável ? SIM

 Serão avaliadas na análise de
sensibilidade alteração nos valores de
propelente,do princípio ativo, custo da
energia e o impacto sobre lucros, taxa
interna de retorno e payback time. A
sensibilidade foi considerada a partir do TMA 0.15
lucro líquido do último ano com
aumento de 5% do valor, conforme a Sensibilidade - 0.34
metodologia de Perlingeiro

Preço do kWH Custo anual Custo total Lucro Líquido (2017)

0.3902 $ 3,980,072.74 $ 7,742,775.85 $ -14,554,960.83
0.01 0.4002 $ 4,082,073.58 $ 7,844,776.69 $ -14,656,961.67
0.02 0.4102 $ 4,184,074.42 $ 7,946,777.53 $ -14,758,962.51
0.03 0.4202 $ 4,286,075.26 $ 8,048,778.37 $ -14,860,963.35
0.04 0.4302 $ 4,388,076.10 $ 8,150,779.21 $ -14,962,964.19
0.05 0.4402 $ 4,490,076.94 $ 8,252,780.05 $ -15,064,965.03
0.06 0.4502 $ 4,592,077.77 $ 8,354,780.89 $ -15,166,965.87
0.07 0.4602 $ 4,694,078.61 $ 8,456,781.73 $ -15,268,966.71
0.08 0.4702 $ 4,796,079.45 $ 8,558,782.57 $ -15,370,967.55
0.09 0.4802 $ 4,898,080.29 $ 8,660,783.40 $ -15,472,968.39
0.1 0.4902 $ 5,000,081.13 $ 8,762,784.24 $ -15,574,969.23
0.11 0.5002 $ 5,102,081.97 $ 8,864,785.08 $ -15,676,970.06
0.12 0.5102 $ 5,204,082.81 $ 8,966,785.92 $ -15,778,970.90
0.13 0.5202 $ 5,306,083.65 $ 9,068,786.76 $ -15,880,971.74
0.14 0.5302 $ 5,408,084.49 $ 9,170,787.60 $ -15,982,972.58
0.15 0.5402 $ 5,510,085.33 $ 9,272,788.44 $ -16,084,973.42
0.16 0.5502 $ 5,612,086.17 $ 9,374,789.28 $ -16,186,974.26
0.17 0.5602 $ 5,714,087.00 $ 9,476,790.12 $ -16,288,975.10
0.18 0.5702 $ 5,816,087.84 $ 9,578,790.96 $ -16,390,975.94
0.19 0.5802 $ 5,918,088.68 $ 9,680,791.79 $ -16,492,976.78
0.2 0.5902 $ 6,020,089.52 $ 9,782,792.63 $ -16,594,977.62
0.21 0.6002 $ 6,122,090.36 $ 9,884,793.47 $ -16,696,978.46
0.22 0.6102 $ 6,224,091.20 $ 9,986,794.31 $ -16,798,979.29
0.23 0.6202 $ 6,326,092.04 $ 10,088,795.15 $ -16,900,980.13
0.24 0.6302 $ 6,428,092.88 $ 10,190,795.99 $ -17,002,980.97
0.25 0.6402 $ 6,530,093.72 $ 10,292,796.83 $ -17,104,981.81
0.26 0.6502 $ 6,632,094.56 $ 10,394,797.67 $ -17,206,982.65
0.27 0.6602 $ 6,734,095.39 $ 10,496,798.51 $ -17,308,983.49
0.28 0.6702 $ 6,836,096.23 $ 10,598,799.35 $ -17,410,984.33
0.29 0.6802 $ 6,938,097.07 $ 10,700,800.19 $ -17,512,985.17
0.3 0.6902 $ 7,040,097.91 $ 10,802,801.02 $ -17,614,986.01
0.31 0.7002 $ 7,142,098.75 $ 10,904,801.86 $ -17,716,986.85
0.32 0.7102 $ 7,244,099.59 $ 11,006,802.70 $ -17,818,987.68
0.33 0.7202 $ 7,346,100.43 $ 11,108,803.54 $ -17,920,988.52
0.34 0.7302 $ 7,448,101.27 $ 11,210,804.38 $ -18,022,989.36
0.35 0.7402 $ 7,550,102.11 $ 11,312,805.22 $ -18,124,990.20
0.36 0.7502 $ 7,652,102.95 $ 11,414,806.06 $ -18,226,991.04
0.37 0.7602 $ 7,754,103.79 $ 11,516,806.90 $ -18,328,991.88
0.38 0.7702 $ 7,856,104.62 $ 11,618,807.74 $ -18,430,992.72
0.39 0.7802 $ 7,958,105.46 $ 11,720,808.58 $ -18,532,993.56
0.4 0.7902 $ 8,060,106.30 $ 11,822,809.41 $ -18,634,994.40
0.41 0.8002 $ 8,162,107.14 $ 11,924,810.25 $ -18,736,995.24
0.42 0.8102 $ 8,264,107.98 $ 12,026,811.09 $ -18,838,996.08
0.43 0.8202 $ 8,366,108.82 $ 12,128,811.93 $ -18,940,996.91
0.44 0.8302 $ 8,468,109.66 $ 12,230,812.77 $ -19,042,997.75
0.45 0.8402 $ 8,570,110.50 $ 12,332,813.61 $ -19,144,998.59
0.46 0.8502 $ 8,672,111.34 $ 12,434,814.45 $ -19,246,999.43
0.47 0.8602 $ 8,774,112.18 $ 12,536,815.29 $ -19,349,000.27
0.48 0.8702 $ 8,876,113.01 $ 12,638,816.13 $ -19,451,001.11
0.49 0.8802 $ 8,978,113.85 $ 12,740,816.97 $ -19,553,001.95
0.5 0.8902 $ 9,080,114.69 $ 12,842,817.81 $ -19,655,002.79
Lucro Líquido (2018) Lucro Líquido (2019) Lucro Líquido (2020) Lucro Líquido (2021)
$ 18,507,224.15 $ 18,507,224.15 $ 32,757,224.15 $ 39,507,224.15
$ 18,405,223.31 $ 18,405,223.31 $ 32,655,223.31 $ 39,405,223.31
$ 18,303,222.47 $ 18,303,222.47 $ 32,553,222.47 $ 39,303,222.47
$ 18,201,221.63 $ 18,201,221.63 $ 32,451,221.63 $ 39,201,221.63
$ 18,099,220.79 $ 18,099,220.79 $ 32,349,220.79 $ 39,099,220.79
$ 17,997,219.95 $ 17,997,219.95 $ 32,247,219.95 $ 38,997,219.95
$ 17,895,219.11 $ 17,895,219.11 $ 32,145,219.11 $ 38,895,219.11
$ 17,793,218.27 $ 17,793,218.27 $ 32,043,218.27 $ 38,793,218.27
$ 17,691,217.43 $ 17,691,217.43 $ 31,941,217.43 $ 38,691,217.43
$ 17,589,216.60 $ 17,589,216.60 $ 31,839,216.60 $ 38,589,216.60
$ 17,487,215.76 $ 17,487,215.76 $ 31,737,215.76 $ 38,487,215.76
$ 17,385,214.92 $ 17,385,214.92 $ 31,635,214.92 $ 38,385,214.92
$ 17,283,214.08 $ 17,283,214.08 $ 31,533,214.08 $ 38,283,214.08
$ 17,181,213.24 $ 17,181,213.24 $ 31,431,213.24 $ 38,181,213.24
$ 17,079,212.40 $ 17,079,212.40 $ 31,329,212.40 $ 38,079,212.40
$ 16,977,211.56 $ 16,977,211.56 $ 31,227,211.56 $ 37,977,211.56
$ 16,875,210.72 $ 16,875,210.72 $ 31,125,210.72 $ 37,875,210.72
$ 16,773,209.88 $ 16,773,209.88 $ 31,023,209.88 $ 37,773,209.88
$ 16,671,209.04 $ 16,671,209.04 $ 30,921,209.04 $ 37,671,209.04
$ 16,569,208.21 $ 16,569,208.21 $ 30,819,208.21 $ 37,569,208.21
$ 16,467,207.37 $ 16,467,207.37 $ 30,717,207.37 $ 37,467,207.37
$ 16,365,206.53 $ 16,365,206.53 $ 30,615,206.53 $ 37,365,206.53
$ 16,263,205.69 $ 16,263,205.69 $ 30,513,205.69 $ 37,263,205.69
$ 16,161,204.85 $ 16,161,204.85 $ 30,411,204.85 $ 37,161,204.85
$ 16,059,204.01 $ 16,059,204.01 $ 30,309,204.01 $ 37,059,204.01
$ 15,957,203.17 $ 15,957,203.17 $ 30,207,203.17 $ 36,957,203.17
$ 15,855,202.33 $ 15,855,202.33 $ 30,105,202.33 $ 36,855,202.33
$ 15,753,201.49 $ 15,753,201.49 $ 30,003,201.49 $ 36,753,201.49
$ 15,651,200.65 $ 15,651,200.65 $ 29,901,200.65 $ 36,651,200.65
$ 15,549,199.81 $ 15,549,199.81 $ 29,799,199.81 $ 36,549,199.81
$ 15,447,198.98 $ 15,447,198.98 $ 29,697,198.98 $ 36,447,198.98
$ 15,345,198.14 $ 15,345,198.14 $ 29,595,198.14 $ 36,345,198.14
$ 15,243,197.30 $ 15,243,197.30 $ 29,493,197.30 $ 36,243,197.30
$ 15,141,196.46 $ 15,141,196.46 $ 29,391,196.46 $ 36,141,196.46
$ 15,039,195.62 $ 15,039,195.62 $ 29,289,195.62 $ 36,039,195.62
$ 14,937,194.78 $ 14,937,194.78 $ 29,187,194.78 $ 35,937,194.78
$ 14,835,193.94 $ 14,835,193.94 $ 29,085,193.94 $ 35,835,193.94
$ 14,733,193.10 $ 14,733,193.10 $ 28,983,193.10 $ 35,733,193.10
$ 14,631,192.26 $ 14,631,192.26 $ 28,881,192.26 $ 35,631,192.26
$ 14,529,191.42 $ 14,529,191.42 $ 28,779,191.42 $ 35,529,191.42
$ 14,427,190.59 $ 14,427,190.59 $ 28,677,190.59 $ 35,427,190.59
$ 14,325,189.75 $ 14,325,189.75 $ 28,575,189.75 $ 35,325,189.75
$ 14,223,188.91 $ 14,223,188.91 $ 28,473,188.91 $ 35,223,188.91
$ 14,121,188.07 $ 14,121,188.07 $ 28,371,188.07 $ 35,121,188.07
$ 14,019,187.23 $ 14,019,187.23 $ 28,269,187.23 $ 35,019,187.23
$ 13,917,186.39 $ 13,917,186.39 $ 28,167,186.39 $ 34,917,186.39
$ 13,815,185.55 $ 13,815,185.55 $ 28,065,185.55 $ 34,815,185.55
$ 13,713,184.71 $ 13,713,184.71 $ 27,963,184.71 $ 34,713,184.71
$ 13,611,183.87 $ 13,611,183.87 $ 27,861,183.87 $ 34,611,183.87
$ 13,509,183.03 $ 13,509,183.03 $ 27,759,183.03 $ 34,509,183.03
$ 13,407,182.19 $ 13,407,182.19 $ 27,657,182.19 $ 34,407,182.19
Lucro Líquido (2022) Lucro Líquido (2023) Lucro Líquido (2024) Lucro Líquido (2025) Lucro Líquido (2026)
$ 46,257,224.15 $ 53,007,224.15 $ 59,757,224.15 $ 59,757,224.15 $ 59,757,224.15
$ 46,155,223.31 $ 52,905,223.31 $ 59,655,223.31 $ 59,655,223.31 $ 59,655,223.31
$ 46,053,222.47 $ 52,803,222.47 $ 59,553,222.47 $ 59,553,222.47 $ 59,553,222.47
$ 45,951,221.63 $ 52,701,221.63 $ 59,451,221.63 $ 59,451,221.63 $ 59,451,221.63
$ 45,849,220.79 $ 52,599,220.79 $ 59,349,220.79 $ 59,349,220.79 $ 59,349,220.79
$ 45,747,219.95 $ 52,497,219.95 $ 59,247,219.95 $ 59,247,219.95 $ 59,247,219.95
$ 45,645,219.11 $ 52,395,219.11 $ 59,145,219.11 $ 59,145,219.11 $ 59,145,219.11
$ 45,543,218.27 $ 52,293,218.27 $ 59,043,218.27 $ 59,043,218.27 $ 59,043,218.27
$ 45,441,217.43 $ 52,191,217.43 $ 58,941,217.43 $ 58,941,217.43 $ 58,941,217.43
$ 45,339,216.60 $ 52,089,216.60 $ 58,839,216.60 $ 58,839,216.60 $ 58,839,216.60
$ 45,237,215.76 $ 51,987,215.76 $ 58,737,215.76 $ 58,737,215.76 $ 58,737,215.76
$ 45,135,214.92 $ 51,885,214.92 $ 58,635,214.92 $ 58,635,214.92 $ 58,635,214.92
$ 45,033,214.08 $ 51,783,214.08 $ 58,533,214.08 $ 58,533,214.08 $ 58,533,214.08
$ 44,931,213.24 $ 51,681,213.24 $ 58,431,213.24 $ 58,431,213.24 $ 58,431,213.24
$ 44,829,212.40 $ 51,579,212.40 $ 58,329,212.40 $ 58,329,212.40 $ 58,329,212.40
$ 44,727,211.56 $ 51,477,211.56 $ 58,227,211.56 $ 58,227,211.56 $ 58,227,211.56
$ 44,625,210.72 $ 51,375,210.72 $ 58,125,210.72 $ 58,125,210.72 $ 58,125,210.72
$ 44,523,209.88 $ 51,273,209.88 $ 58,023,209.88 $ 58,023,209.88 $ 58,023,209.88
$ 44,421,209.04 $ 51,171,209.04 $ 57,921,209.04 $ 57,921,209.04 $ 57,921,209.04
$ 44,319,208.21 $ 51,069,208.21 $ 57,819,208.21 $ 57,819,208.21 $ 57,819,208.21
$ 44,217,207.37 $ 50,967,207.37 $ 57,717,207.37 $ 57,717,207.37 $ 57,717,207.37
$ 44,115,206.53 $ 50,865,206.53 $ 57,615,206.53 $ 57,615,206.53 $ 57,615,206.53
$ 44,013,205.69 $ 50,763,205.69 $ 57,513,205.69 $ 57,513,205.69 $ 57,513,205.69
$ 43,911,204.85 $ 50,661,204.85 $ 57,411,204.85 $ 57,411,204.85 $ 57,411,204.85
$ 43,809,204.01 $ 50,559,204.01 $ 57,309,204.01 $ 57,309,204.01 $ 57,309,204.01
$ 43,707,203.17 $ 50,457,203.17 $ 57,207,203.17 $ 57,207,203.17 $ 57,207,203.17
$ 43,605,202.33 $ 50,355,202.33 $ 57,105,202.33 $ 57,105,202.33 $ 57,105,202.33
$ 43,503,201.49 $ 50,253,201.49 $ 57,003,201.49 $ 57,003,201.49 $ 57,003,201.49
$ 43,401,200.65 $ 50,151,200.65 $ 56,901,200.65 $ 56,901,200.65 $ 56,901,200.65
$ 43,299,199.81 $ 50,049,199.81 $ 56,799,199.81 $ 56,799,199.81 $ 56,799,199.81
$ 43,197,198.98 $ 49,947,198.98 $ 56,697,198.98 $ 56,697,198.98 $ 56,697,198.98
$ 43,095,198.14 $ 49,845,198.14 $ 56,595,198.14 $ 56,595,198.14 $ 56,595,198.14
$ 42,993,197.30 $ 49,743,197.30 $ 56,493,197.30 $ 56,493,197.30 $ 56,493,197.30
$ 42,891,196.46 $ 49,641,196.46 $ 56,391,196.46 $ 56,391,196.46 $ 56,391,196.46
$ 42,789,195.62 $ 49,539,195.62 $ 56,289,195.62 $ 56,289,195.62 $ 56,289,195.62
$ 42,687,194.78 $ 49,437,194.78 $ 56,187,194.78 $ 56,187,194.78 $ 56,187,194.78
$ 42,585,193.94 $ 49,335,193.94 $ 56,085,193.94 $ 56,085,193.94 $ 56,085,193.94
$ 42,483,193.10 $ 49,233,193.10 $ 55,983,193.10 $ 55,983,193.10 $ 55,983,193.10
$ 42,381,192.26 $ 49,131,192.26 $ 55,881,192.26 $ 55,881,192.26 $ 55,881,192.26
$ 42,279,191.42 $ 49,029,191.42 $ 55,779,191.42 $ 55,779,191.42 $ 55,779,191.42
$ 42,177,190.59 $ 48,927,190.59 $ 55,677,190.59 $ 55,677,190.59 $ 55,677,190.59
$ 42,075,189.75 $ 48,825,189.75 $ 55,575,189.75 $ 55,575,189.75 $ 55,575,189.75
$ 41,973,188.91 $ 48,723,188.91 $ 55,473,188.91 $ 55,473,188.91 $ 55,473,188.91
$ 41,871,188.07 $ 48,621,188.07 $ 55,371,188.07 $ 55,371,188.07 $ 55,371,188.07
$ 41,769,187.23 $ 48,519,187.23 $ 55,269,187.23 $ 55,269,187.23 $ 55,269,187.23
$ 41,667,186.39 $ 48,417,186.39 $ 55,167,186.39 $ 55,167,186.39 $ 55,167,186.39
$ 41,565,185.55 $ 48,315,185.55 $ 55,065,185.55 $ 55,065,185.55 $ 55,065,185.55
$ 41,463,184.71 $ 48,213,184.71 $ 54,963,184.71 $ 54,963,184.71 $ 54,963,184.71
$ 41,361,183.87 $ 48,111,183.87 $ 54,861,183.87 $ 54,861,183.87 $ 54,861,183.87
$ 41,259,183.03 $ 48,009,183.03 $ 54,759,183.03 $ 54,759,183.03 $ 54,759,183.03
$ 41,157,182.19 $ 47,907,182.19 $ 54,657,182.19 $ 54,657,182.19 $ 54,657,182.19
Lucro Líquido (2027) Lucro Líquido (2028) TIR VPL Viabilidade do Projeto
$ 59,757,224.15 $ 59,757,224.15 148% $ 84,511,108.07 Sim
$ 59,655,223.31 $ 59,655,223.31 147% $ 84,107,437.96 Sim
$ 59,553,222.47 $ 59,553,222.47 145% $ 83,703,767.85 Sim
$ 59,451,221.63 $ 59,451,221.63 144% $ 83,300,097.73 Sim
$ 59,349,220.79 $ 59,349,220.79 142% $ 82,896,427.62 Sim
$ 59,247,219.95 $ 59,247,219.95 141% $ 82,492,757.51 Sim
$ 59,145,219.11 $ 59,145,219.11 140% $ 82,089,087.40 Sim
$ 59,043,218.27 $ 59,043,218.27 138% $ 81,685,417.29 Sim
$ 58,941,217.43 $ 58,941,217.43 137% $ 81,281,747.18 Sim
$ 58,839,216.60 $ 58,839,216.60 136% $ 80,878,077.07 Sim
$ 58,737,215.76 $ 58,737,215.76 135% $ 80,474,406.96 Sim
$ 58,635,214.92 $ 58,635,214.92 133% $ 80,070,736.85 Sim
$ 58,533,214.08 $ 58,533,214.08 132% $ 79,667,066.73 Sim
$ 58,431,213.24 $ 58,431,213.24 131% $ 79,263,396.62 Sim
$ 58,329,212.40 $ 58,329,212.40 130% $ 78,859,726.51 Sim
$ 58,227,211.56 $ 58,227,211.56 128% $ 78,456,056.40 Sim
$ 58,125,210.72 $ 58,125,210.72 127% $ 78,052,386.29 Sim
$ 58,023,209.88 $ 58,023,209.88 126% $ 77,648,716.18 Sim
$ 57,921,209.04 $ 57,921,209.04 125% $ 77,245,046.07 Sim
$ 57,819,208.21 $ 57,819,208.21 124% $ 76,841,375.96 Sim
$ 57,717,207.37 $ 57,717,207.37 123% $ 76,437,705.85 Sim
$ 57,615,206.53 $ 57,615,206.53 122% $ 76,034,035.74 Sim
$ 57,513,205.69 $ 57,513,205.69 121% $ 75,630,365.62 Sim
$ 57,411,204.85 $ 57,411,204.85 120% $ 75,226,695.51 Sim
$ 57,309,204.01 $ 57,309,204.01 119% $ 74,823,025.40 Sim
$ 57,207,203.17 $ 57,207,203.17 118% $ 74,419,355.29 Sim
$ 57,105,202.33 $ 57,105,202.33 117% $ 74,015,685.18 Sim
$ 57,003,201.49 $ 57,003,201.49 116% $ 73,612,015.07 Sim
$ 56,901,200.65 $ 56,901,200.65 115% $ 73,208,344.96 Sim
$ 56,799,199.81 $ 56,799,199.81 114% $ 72,804,674.85 Sim
$ 56,697,198.98 $ 56,697,198.98 113% $ 72,401,004.74 Sim
$ 56,595,198.14 $ 56,595,198.14 112% $ 71,997,334.63 Sim
$ 56,493,197.30 $ 56,493,197.30 111% $ 71,593,664.51 Sim
$ 56,391,196.46 $ 56,391,196.46 110% $ 71,189,994.40 Sim
$ 56,289,195.62 $ 56,289,195.62 109% $ 70,786,324.29 Sim
$ 56,187,194.78 $ 56,187,194.78 108% $ 70,382,654.18 Sim
$ 56,085,193.94 $ 56,085,193.94 107% $ 69,978,984.07 Sim
$ 55,983,193.10 $ 55,983,193.10 106% $ 69,575,313.96 Sim
$ 55,881,192.26 $ 55,881,192.26 105% $ 69,171,643.85 Sim
$ 55,779,191.42 $ 55,779,191.42 105% $ 68,767,973.74 Sim
$ 55,677,190.59 $ 55,677,190.59 104% $ 68,364,303.63 Sim
$ 55,575,189.75 $ 55,575,189.75 103% $ 67,960,633.51 Sim
$ 55,473,188.91 $ 55,473,188.91 102% $ 67,556,963.40 Sim
$ 55,371,188.07 $ 55,371,188.07 101% $ 67,153,293.29 Sim
$ 55,269,187.23 $ 55,269,187.23 100% $ 66,749,623.18 Sim
$ 55,167,186.39 $ 55,167,186.39 100% $ 66,345,953.07 Sim
$ 55,065,185.55 $ 55,065,185.55 99% $ 65,942,282.96 Sim
$ 54,963,184.71 $ 54,963,184.71 98% $ 65,538,612.85 Sim
$ 54,861,183.87 $ 54,861,183.87 97% $ 65,134,942.74 Sim
$ 54,759,183.03 $ 54,759,183.03 96% $ 64,731,272.63 Sim
$ 54,657,182.19 $ 54,657,182.19 96% $ 64,327,602.52 Sim
 TIR X Custo da Energia
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
TIR

60%
40%
20%
0%
0.39 0.49 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.89 0.99
Custo da energia (kWH)

Custo da energia x VPL

$90,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$70,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$50,000,000.00
VPL

$40,000,000.00
$30,000,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$10,000,000.00
$-
0.39 0.49 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.89 0.99
Custo da energia (R$/kWH)
 LUCRO LÍQUIDO

Porcentagem de vendas 1.00 0.9

2017 $ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84
2018 $ 18,112,308.03 $ 15,487,308.03
2019 $ 18,112,308.03 $ 15,487,308.03
2020 $ 32,362,308.03 $ 28,312,308.03
2021 $ 39,112,308.03 $ 34,387,308.03
2022 $ 45,862,308.03 $ 40,462,308.03
2023 $ 52,612,308.03 $ 46,537,308.03
2024 $ 59,362,308.03 $ 52,612,308.03
2025 $ 59,362,308.03 $ 52,612,308.03
2026 $ 59,362,308.03 $ 52,612,308.03
2027 $ 59,362,308.03 $ 52,612,308.03
2028 $ 59,362,308.03 $ 52,612,308.03
TIR 146% 129%
VPL 83,343,145.73 71,146,599.29
Payback 0.93 1.07
Sensibilidade - 5.69
 LUCRO LÍQUIDO

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

$ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84 $ -14,554,951.84
Sensibilidade - TIR X F
$ 10,762,308.03 $ 5,092,308.03 $ -199,691.97 $ -4,168,691.97
160%
$ 10,762,308.03 $ 5,092,308.03 $ -199,691.97 $ -4,168,691.97
$ 21,022,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 4,109,508.03 $ -2,014,091.97 140%

$ 25,882,308.03 $ 15,676,308.03 $ 6,150,708.03 $ -993,491.97 120%

$ 30,742,308.03 $ 19,078,308.03 $ 8,191,908.03 $ 27,108.03 100%
$ 35,602,308.03 $ 22,480,308.03 $ 10,233,108.03 $ 1,047,708.03 80%
$ 40,462,308.03 $ 25,882,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 2,068,308.03
60%
$ 40,462,308.03 $ 25,882,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 2,068,308.03
40%
$ 40,462,308.03 $ 25,882,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 2,068,308.03
$ 40,462,308.03 $ 25,882,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 2,068,308.03 20%

$ 40,462,308.03 $ 25,882,308.03 $ 12,274,308.03 $ 2,068,308.03 0%

0.40 0.50 0.60 0.7
99% 64% 30% -10% -20%
49,192,815.69 22,848,275.38 - 1,739,962.24 - 20,181,140.46
1.86 2.89 6.64 Mais do que 10 anos
bilidade - TIR X Fração de vendas previstas

0 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Cenários Custo anual de M. P. ($) 2017 2018 2019
30% 4768529.48765316 -14554951.8363461 23470810 23470810
20% 5449747.98588933 -14554951.8363461 23130201 23130201
Otimista
10% 6130966.4841255 -14554951.8363461 22789592 22789592
5% 6471575.73324358 -14554951.8363461 22619287 22619287
Atual 0 6812184.98236166 -14554951.8363461 22448982 22448982
5% 7152794.23147975 -14554951.8363461 22278678 22278678
10% 7493403.48059783 -14554951.8363461 22108373 22108373
Pessimista
20% 8174621.978834 -14554951.8363461 21767764 21767764
30% 8855840.47707016 -14554951.8363461 21427155 21427155

Capacidade da planta (%) Receita após Imposto de renda

2017 0 0
2018 50 25855074.8869421
2019 50 25855074.8869421
2020 60 40105074.8869421
2021 70 46855074.8869421
2022 80 53605074.8869421
180%
2023 90 60355074.8869421
100 67105074.8869421 175%
2024
2025 100 67105074.8869421 170%
2026 100 67105074.8869421
165%
2027 100 67105074.8869421

TIR
2028 100 67105074.8869421 160%

155%
0
000
4

R$21

R$21

R$20

R$20
VPL

R$19

R$19

R$18
V
R$19

R$19

R$18
 Lucro operacional
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 TIR
37243957 43517104 49790251 56063398 62336545 62336545 62336545 62336545 62336545 177%
36835226 43040251 49245276 55450302 61655327 61655327 61655327 61655327 61655327 175%
36426495 42563398 48700302 54837205 60974108 60974108 60974108 60974108 60974108 172%
36222129 42324972 48427814 54530657 60633499 60633499 60633499 60633499 60633499 171%
36017764 42086545 48155327 54224108 60292890 60292890 60292890 60292890 60292890 170%
35813398 41848119 47882840 53917560 59952281 59952281 59952281 59952281 59952281 169%
35609033 41609692 47610352 53611012 59611671 59611671 59611671 59611671 59611671 168%
35200302 41132840 47065377 52997915 58930453 58930453 58930453 58930453 58930453 166%
34791571 40655987 46520403 52384818 58249234 58249234 58249234 58249234 58249234 164%

TMA 0.15

Sensibilidade Matéria Prima

180%

175%

170%

165% Sens i bi l i dade Matéri a

TIR

Pri ma
160%

155%
00 00 00 00 00 00 00
000 000 000 000 000 000 0 00
40 50 60 70 80 90 10
0

Custo anual de Matéria Prima ($)

Sensibilidade Matéria Prima

R$215,000,000.00

R$210,000,000.00

R$205,000,000.00

R$200,000,000.00 Sens ibi l idade Matéri a

VPL

Prima
R$195,000,000.00

R$190,000,000.00

R$185,000,000.00
4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000
Custo anual de Matéria Prima ($)
 Prima

V
R$195,000,000.00

R$190,000,000.00

R$185,000,000.00
4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000
Custo anual de Matéria Prima ($)
VPL
R$ 212,303,552.56
R$ 209,685,182.42
R$ 207,066,812.29
R$ 205,757,627.22
R$ 204,448,442.15
R$ 203,139,257.08
R$ 201,830,072.02
R$ 199,211,701.88
R$ 196,593,331.75
 Análise de Sensibilidade
200%

f(x) = - 3.15187316782671E-08x + 1.9175628943

150%
f(x) = 1.45672472470466E-08x + 0.2669281653
f(x) = - 1.01578005968739E-07x + 1.8538904468
Energi a
100% Li nea r (Energi a )
Venda s
TIR

Li nea r (Vendas )
50% Matéri as Pri ma s
Li nea r (Matéria

0%
$-40,000,000.00 $- $40,000,000.00$80,000,000.00$120,000,000.00

-50%

Valor ($)
Energi a
Li nea r (Energi a )
Venda s
Li nea r (Vendas )
Matéri as Pri ma s
Li nea r (Matéria s Pri ma s )