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1. Introduction
1.2 Acknowledgements
The Handbook was created by Dave Usher of CBRNE Ltd (www.cbrneltd.com) and Stewart
Grainger of BACTEC International Ltd (www.bactec.com).
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh
Framework Programme 2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 284996. Project D-BOX – A
demining tool-box for humanitarian clearing of large-scale areas from anti-personnel
landmines and cluster munitions.
This document reflects only the authors’ views and the European Union is not liable for any
use that may be made of the information contained herein.
1.3 Contacts
If you have any queries or comments regarding the content of this Handbook, please contact
Dominic Kelly, Managing Director, CBRNE Ltd.
It is important to distinguish errors from hazardous events. Most errors are harmless; most
are recovered immediately; most result only in delay. Of interest is the tiny minority of errors
with serious consequences.
4.2 Quantification
Over 150 different methods of quantifying Human Error Probability (HEP) predictions have
been developed and published in the last 50 years. Although at least 35 of them have been
considered sufficiently rigorous for the UK nuclear industry [Ref 8], most have not stood the
test of time and are no longer supported by their developers.
The three techniques for predicting HEPs described in this Section are the most commonly
used in safety engineering. Only these have been validated against error rates observed in
the real world.
4.2.1 HEART
The most well-known and popular method of predicting HEPs is the Human Error Assessment
and Reduction Technique (HEART) [Ref 9]. HEART has little theoretical underpinning but can
nevertheless produce plausible results. Its popularity rests on its breadth of application and
its simplicity.
The process involves selecting from a Table the ‘Generic Task’ that most closely resembles the
task under scrutiny. The ‘nominal human unreliability’ value of the chosen GT is then modified
by the effect of Error Producing Conditions, which are selected from a list of 38 and applied to
a suitable extent. The result is an estimate of the probability of committing the error at each
opportunity.
Section 9.2 provides the HEART Tables and an example of the calculation of a HEP.
4.2.2 THERP
The Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) [Ref 10] was developed in the US
nuclear industry over 50 years ago for assessing the safety of Pressurised Water Reactors.
Unlike HEART, it has a thorough theoretical grounding in psychology, mathematics and
statistics. As a result, the rate at which errors are committed is assumed to follow a ‘log-
normal’ frequency distribution – that is, it is the logarithm of the HEP (rather than the HEP
itself) that is assumed to follow a normal distribution.
The prediction process is based on the THERP handbook – a large paper volume containing
tables of information about the frequencies of the errors that might occur in the tasks typically
carried out at nuclear power stations. For example, the Table concerning Check reading of
displays contains items such as Digital indicators and Analogue meters without limit marks. A
‘Basic HEP’ and an ‘Error Factor’ is given for each item. Multipliers are then applied for the
‘Performance Shaping Factors’ stress, experience, ergonomics and whether Personal
Protective Equipment (PPE) is worn. The result is an estimated HEP per opportunity, with an
associated range of accuracy.
4.3 Dependence
The probability of error also depends on preceding events. For example, an earlier error
(whether by the same operator or another) might cause greater vigilance (reducing the HEP)
or cause greater nervousness (raising the HEP).
The concept of dependence extends to supervisory tasks, in which the probability of error
depends on the relationship between the people involved. The effectiveness of supervision is
reduced if both operators have the same training, have the same cultural background, have
worked together for many years and socialise outside work. They no longer act
independently. The growth of trust between them – so important to the effectiveness of an
organisation – can actually increase the probability of errors of supervision.
HEART does not model dependence. THERP provides the algorithm shown in Table 1, where
HEPA and HEPB are the probabilities of error in Task A and the subsequent Task B respectively.
Table 1: Error dependence
The Table shows that THERP is a conservative technique – the second error only increases the
combined HEP. However, the contribution made by the second error reduces as the
dependence increases. Indeed, bearing in mind that HEPs are typically around 0.001, the
result of applying this rather simplistic algorithm is that the combined HEP is effectively HEP A
divided by the denominators in the right-hand column of the table.
4.7 Accuracy
Great approximation is involved in the prediction of HEPs. In HEART, the analyst must choose
the GT, the EPCs and their proportions of effect. In THERP, the analyst chooses the table, item
and moderating factors. Despite the best of intentions, these choices are likely to be fraught
with uncertainty and personal bias. The HEP data are estimates. The algorithms for combining
them are crude. The modelling of the error and the treatment of dependence and recovery
are matters of personal judgement.
5.1 RAPID
The RAPID database, maintained by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian
Demining (GICHD), records the accidents that have been reported in demining projects
worldwide since 1977 [Ref 13]. The causation data are shown in Figure 2. The categories that
relate to error – ‘Staff negligence’, ‘Procedure failure’, ‘Supervision failure’ and ‘Training
failure’ – together account for 36% of the total.
Staff negligence,
193, 9%
Equipment
malfunction, 233,
11%
Other, 30, 2%
Unknown, 961,
46%
Procedure failure,
195, 9%
Supervision failure,
231, 11%
Training failure,
138, 7% Support failure,
105, 5%
Figure 2: Accident causation data from the RAPID database (since 07-Jun-77)
However, the value of the RAPID database to research is limited by the absence of a recorded
cause for nearly half of the accidents. The situation is deteriorating: 64% of the accidents
recorded since 01-Jan-2000 have no information about causation.
Procedures, 20,
71%
Figure 4 shows the EUP opinion regarding causation, in the following categories:
Psychological (boredom, poor concentration, complacency, over-confidence,
fatigue) – 39%
Management (supervision, training) – 35%
Socio-cultural (status, ‘face’) – 6%
External pressures (funding, time pressure, targets) – 7%
Practical (terrain, equipment) – 13%
Thus, the most significant ‘internal error mode’ is seen to be the combination of the
psychological factors that affect the deminer. This is not surprising, as error is primarily a
psychological phenomenon. Perhaps more notable is that 35% of errors are thought to arise
from poor supervision or training – despite the fact that the respondents had some
responsibility for these activities.
Psychological,
External 18, 39%
pressures, 3, 7%
Socio-cultural, 3,
6%
Management,
16, 35%
Better
procedures, 15,
25% Enhanced
training, 22, 37%
Better
equipment, 4, 7%
Figure 5 shows the types of solutions the EUP put forward. It is notable that no solutions are
suggested explicitly for the psychological causes of error, despite their predominance. The
most frequent suggestion is improved training (37%) followed by better supervision (31%),
which reflects of course the observations regarding training and supervision noted above. The
next most frequently suggested solution (25%) is to enhance the SOPs. This subject is
discussed in Section 6.7.
6.1 Standards
The International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) aid safety and efficiency during many
demining activities. They are maintained by GICHD. A team of experienced demining
managers, based in Geneva, holds regular meetings with active demining managers to
promulgate their work and to gather feedback to ensure that standards and procedures are
kept in harmony with experience in the field.
6.2 Procedures
Produced by the demining operators, the SOPs provide guidance on the conduct of specific
actions to complete the demining project. They are derived from the IMAS but take into
account the local conditions, the types of deminers employed and the particular techniques
required by the ordnance and its location.
The opinions expressed by the SMEs (and the accident data recorded) indicate that the SOPs
are one of the most fertile areas for error reduction. This is a very common finding in the field
of Human Factors, because good procedures are very difficult to produce. A well-designed
procedure embodies more than the correct technical content: it reflects the capabilities and
limitations of its readers.
For maximum usability, a procedure should meet the following criteria:
The medium of publication is suitable for the task being undertaken. Insofar as
deminers cannot practically have access to their procedures in the field, the
range of possible media includes paper-based, computer application, video and
aide mémoire
The content is presented in the most accessible format. Text, diagrams,
photographs, tables and flowcharts should each be considered for their impact
on the reader
Warnings are indicated by an eye-catching icon
The reason underlying a procedural step is provided, particularly one involving a
warning. This will allow the reader to accept and internalise the importance of
following the step
The readability of the text suits the literacy of the readers. A Flesch-Kincaid score
[Ref 15] of at least 90 is appropriate for demining SOPs
The procedures are all presented in the same format. This will allow the user to
find particular information quickly
6.3 Accreditation
Accreditation is the practical testing of competence to secure high quality, safe demining. The
process has two parts:
Organisational Accreditation in which a demining organisation earns formal
recognition as being competent to plan and manage at project effectively and
efficiently. Such accreditation will be awarded to the headquarters of an
organisation, normally for a period of two to three years
Operational Accreditation. Conveyed “in country”, this formally recognises that
an organisation is competent to carry out demining activities such as surveying,
manual clearance or the use of mine detecting dogs. The process, which is
usually supervised by the Mine Action Centre (MAC), covers individuals and
teams.
Demining is a small community and individuals are likely to be known to the project manager
personally or by recommendation. The managers’ performance will be seen and tested during
mobilisation, training and accreditation. In this way, personal deficiencies leading to error will
be identified and remedial actions can be taken before operations begin.
6.4 Personnel
The quality, attitudes and experience of project managers strongly influence the efficiency
and safety of demining projects through their attitude to personnel matters.
Recruited managers will carry out the training for a particular contract. It will be based on the
SOPs but its quality and content will depend on the manager’s skills and experience. Demining
manager training courses are run by GICHD and several national agencies, attendance at which
should form part of the accreditation process.
6.4.1 Recruitment
Normally, demining recruits will be selected from those with basic training and some
experience. If the project includes local volunteers with no experience (in accordance with
the requirements set out in the Cultural Guidelines [Ref 16]), selection tests will be
6.5 Supervision
Deminers must be focused, competent and confident to safeguard themselves and their
teams against accidents. That demands good health and attitude and an absence of mental
or physical distractions. Managers and supervisors will monitor the health, rest, nutrition and
accommodation of their employees to ensure they are fit for work.
Once at work, the supervisors and team leaders will monitor the deminers in the field to check
that they are working on the correct task, in defined areas and to the SOPs. Supervisors and
team leaders will be nearby to provide advice and encouragement. Whilst risk assessments
and SOPs will cover the threat, situation, procedures and inspections, it is unusual to find
specific procedures to reduce human error. This matter is discussed further in Section 6.6.
6.7 Equipment
Errors can be made both by the designer of a sign and by its interpreter. Figure 6 shows
extreme examples of poor design, in which there is conflict between the text and the image.
The cognitive load imposed on the interpreter of the sign by the need to resolve this conflict
might cause delay, incorrect action and a loss of confidence in signage generally. Of course,
even if the sign is well designed, clear and wholly unambiguous, the interpreter might simply
misunderstand it or fail to see it.
In general, research suggests that the most effective signs align ‘descriptive’ and ‘injunctive’
messages [Ref 18, 19] – that is, the sign should imply that people are already doing what they
should be doing.
6.8 PPE
It is of course an error, in a hazardous environment, not to wear PPE or to wear it incorrectly.
But it should be remembered that in itself the error does not cause accidents. Instead, it
reduces the mitigation of the severity of some accidents – those against which the PPE is
intended to protect.
It is notable that in the THERP methodology (Section 4.2.2), the HEP is doubled if PPE is worn.
This reflects the difficulty of carrying out a delicate manual task wearing thick gloves or a
facemask. Therefore, the risk assessment of a task in which PPE is mandated must include the
extent of mitigation achieved by the PPE as well as the probability of it not being worn.
7.1 Human-HAZOPS
The first step in human error assessment of a Tool is to identify the errors that might credibly
be made by its users. The best method of doing this is based on the Hazard and Operability
Study (HAZOPS) methodology used in engineering [Ref 23] and is known as a Human-HAZOPS
[Ref 24].
The process is carried out by SMEs, preferably around six in number, one of whom acts as a
scribe. Together, the team should:
Identify the tasks undertaken. A task hierarchy is the ideal format – where the
tasks are broken down (‘redescribed’) into their subtasks.
Identify guidewords, representing deviations from the correct performance of
the task. The guidewords should be based on experience of how demining tasks
are usually performed. Section 9.3 gives a list to start from.
Apply the guidewords to each of the tasks in the task hierarchy. This will
generate ideas for how errors might occur, and the scribe should record the
credible ones.
For each of the recorded errors, consider its effects on safety, prioritising those
with the greatest safety significance.
Discuss and record possible ways of reducing the probability of the error or the
severity of its consequences (or both). Identify the most practicable method and
consider how it might be implemented.
The result of the Human-HAZOPS is a list of possible modifications to the design of the Tool,
each of which will help to reduce human error.
7.2 Standards
Another important way of reducing error in the use of equipment is to design the equipment
in accordance with recognised international standards. Many Human Factors standards have
been published, for application to all types of work. The following are the most relevant to
demining:
EN ISO 6385:2004 – Ergonomic principles in the design of work systems
EN ISO 14738:2002 Safety of machinery — Anthropometric requirements for
the design of workstations at machinery
8.1 General
In this Handbook, we have shown that:
Human error is an important factor in most demining accidents.
The understanding of human error among deminers is generally poor. This
indicates a need to include the subject in demining training.
demining accident data are few and of poor quality, which frustrates research
into demining safety and the role played by human error.
The greatest danger is in the routine excavation of landmines and ERW in
preparation for neutralisation.
Table 3: The main causes of error
8.3 Recommendations
The following recommendations have emerged from the research leading to this Handbook.
1. Demining managers should attend the courses run by GICHD (and other national
agencies) to enhance their training skills. Where practicable, the courses
attended should be accredited by a professional teaching body, such as the UK’s
National College for Teaching & Leadership [Ref 25]
2. Specialists in Human Factors and technical authorship should collaborate with
demining managers in developing demining SOPs
3. Research should be conducted into ways of mitigating the psychological sources
of error, such as boredom and over-confidence
4. Funding should be made available for research and development into improved
demining equipment, as described in Section 6.7
5. D-BOX Tool designers should follow the Human HAZOPS methodology to reduce
the likelihood of error in the use of their Tools. Feedback on the usability and
value of the methodology should be used to enhance the process
6. Research should be initiated into improved hand protection for deminers
7. A safety check such as that given in Section 9.4 should be considered an essential
part of the operators’ SOPs and used every day (and whenever a new task is
started)
8. The RAPID database maintained by GICHD should be revised along the lines set
out in Section 6.9. There should be greater emphasis on the importance of
entering information about causation
9. Deminer training, particularly for managers, should include error identification
and reduction techniques
10. Signage in and around the minefield should meet the intelligibility criteria set out
in Section 6.7.4.
8.4 Finally
This Handbook has explored the subject of human error in demining, from the viewpoints of
Tool developers and Tool users. The intention has been to increase the safety and productivity
of humanitarian demining projects in the EU and outside, by raising awareness of the ways in
9.1 Abbreviations
Abbreviation Meaning
AP Anti-Personnel
CBRNE Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosive
DDAS Database of Demining Accidents
EDEN End-user driven DEmo for cbrNe
EPC Error Producing Condition
ERW Explosive Remnants of War
EU European Union
EUP End User Platform
GICHD Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining
GT Generic Task
HAZOPS Hazards and Operability Study
HEART Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique
HEP Human Error Probability
IMAS International Mine Action Standards
ISO International Organization for Standardization (Greek: iso=same)
MAC Mine Action Centre
PPE Personal Protective Equipment
RAPID Reporting, Analysis, and Prevention of Incidents in Demining
SME Subject Matter Expert
SOP Standard Operating Procedure
THERP Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction
UK United Kingdom
UNMAS United Nations Mine Action Service
US United States
VDT Visual Display Terminal
GT(A) Unfamiliar Totally unfamiliar, performed at speed with no 0.55 (0.35 - 0.97)
real idea of likely consequences.
GT(B) Shift without Shift or restore system to new or original state 0.26 (0.14 - 0.42)
procedures on a single attempt without supervision or
procedures
GT(C) Complex Complex task requiring high level of 0.16 (0.12 - 0.28)
comprehension and skill.
GT(D) Simple Fairly simple task performed rapidly OR given 0.09 (0.06 - 0.13)
scant attention.
GT(E) Routine, low Routine, highly-practised, rapid task involving 0.02 (0.007 - 0.045)
Skill relatively low level of skill.
9.2.3 An example
As an example, Generic Task E is a routine, highly practised, rapid task involving relatively low
level of skill. Its HEPnom is 0.02 at the 50th%ile level. Next, if there is little time available for
error detection and correction, then EPC02 (with PNF = 11) should be chosen. A PoE of 0.5
might be suitable if the operator has no control over the pace of the work and there is a strict
deadline for completion.
So, if no further EPCs are relevant, the HEP is given by:
0.02 × [((11 - 1) × 0.5) + 1] = 0.02 × (10 × 0.5 + 1) = 0.02 × 6 = 0.12
That is to say, HEART predicts that in 50% of the cases in which these conditions apply, the
task will be done incorrectly in up to 12% of attempts – one in every eight.
1 Accidents are normal and human error does not exist: a new look at the creation of
occupational safety
S W Dekker
International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics 2003 9(2) p211-8
6 Skills, rules and knowledge: Signals, signs, and symbols and other distinctions in
human performance models
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-13, p257-267
Jens Rasmussen, 1982
7 Human Error
J. Reason, Cambridge University Press, 1990
ISBN-0-521-31419-4
11 THERP Calculator
InterAction of Bath Ltd, 2010
13 RAPID_Accident_Causes_May2014.xls
Supplied by Fiaz Paktian, GICHD