i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he

Development and environmental impact of

hydrogen supply chain in Japan: Assessment by
the CGE-LCA method in Japan with a discussion of
the importance of biohydrogen

Duu-Hwa Lee*
Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan

article info abstract

Article history: Hydrogen is an attractive and clean source of energy with a high energy content and
Available online 30 June 2014 environmentally friendly production using green power. Hydrogen is therefore considered
to be one of the future alternatives to fossil fuels that can limit the damage done by climate
Keywords: change. A dynamic GTAP model with LCA method is utilized herein in this investigation to
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle forecast the development of the hydrogen supply chain and CO2 emissions in Japan. The
Hydrogen fueling station supply chain incorporates six hydrogen-related industries e biohydrogen, steam reform-
Hydrogen fuel cell ing, electrolysis, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV), hydrogen fuel cells (HFC), and
Biohydrogen hydrogen fueling stations.
Green economy Baseline results reveal that the positive impacts on hydrogen application sectors (HFCV,
Life cycle assessment HFC and HFS) are greater than hydrogen generation sectors (biohydrogen, steam reforming
and electrolysis). Sensitivity analysis reveals that HFCV, HFC and biohydrogen are the three
industries that are most sensitive to technology advance. Hydrogen-related industries will
play a more important role if Japan shut down nuclear power plants or to meet the CO2
mitigation target in response to the conclusions of COP 19. Biohydrogen has the potential
gradually to become a major hydrogen-generating technology for future development of
green economy.
Copyright © 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.

emission trading, the green climate fund, and green

Introduction
Climate change may cause various disasters, such as rising
sea levels, acidification of oceans, extreme weather events
and food shortages [1,2]. Various economic incentives, such
as the clean development mechanism (CDM), carbon
financing, may encourage the development of clean and low-
carbon energy sources to support the green economy [3],
green growth [4], and thereby to reduce the negative effects
of climate change [4].

* Tel.: þ886 2 2462 2192.

E-mail address: dhlee@mail.ntou.edu.tw.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.05.142
0360-3199/Copyright © 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
Hydrogen is a clean, affordable, practically feasible energy
carrier [5,6], combustible and abundant [7] which is widely
regarded as a promising alternative to fossil fuels [8]. The use
of renewable energy sources (RES) such as wave [9], solar [10],
wind [11] or geothermal to generate clean hydrogen is devel-
oping and may support the production of hydrogen with low
or even zero emissions [12,13]. Parra et al. [14] reveals the
hydrogen generated by RES can achieve the decarbonization
target for UK. To develop a hydrogen supply chain, which in-
cludes the production, delivery, storage, conversion and use of
hydrogen, public education and outreach [15] are important
[16]. Hydrogen delivery uses liquid organic hydrides as
hydrogen carriers is a promising storage and delivery system
[17] or use utilization of glass fiber pressure vessels at 200 K
and 70 MPa [18]. Hydrogen storage capacity needs further
improvement for using by vehicular applications [19] and for
urban and industrial-complex area in large scale [20]. The
major chicken-and-egg dilemma in the development of the
hydrogen economy is whether to build the necessary infra-
structure first, including hydrogen fueling stations (HFS) [21],
or whether to develop hydrogen applications first, including
hydrogen fuel cells (HFC) [22], hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
(HFCV) [23] or hydrogen internal combustion vehicles [7,24].
Katikaneni et al. [25] perform feasibility analysis to reveal the
on-site hydrogen generation using existing fueling station
could support development of hydrogen production and ap-
plications [26]. This investigation discusses first three classes
of hydrogen industries in the hydrogen supply and sales
chain.
Hydrogen is typically produced by steaming reforming,
electrolysis, a biological method or other approaches [27].
Through comparative assessment of hydrogen production
from all sources, biomass gasification has the best energetic
and exergetic efficiencies [28]. The generation of biohydrogen
is a green process that uses biomass, wastewater, or sludge
[29,30]. Biomass as a source of biohydrogen has more advan-
tages and less impact to environment than fossil fuels [31,32].
The process is less energy-intensive than other generation
processes and is technologically feasible. In a clean and green
economy, biological and RES-electrolysis methods for gener-
ating hydrogen are more effective than steam reforming in
mitigating CO2 emissions. A new method names electro-
hydrogenesis which uses exoelectrogenic bacteria in micro-
bial electrolysis cells to generate biohydrogen [33]. This
investigation will identify the feasibility of the development of
these hydrogen generation technologies.
Japan is one of most aggressive countries in developing a
hydrogen economy, it plans to develop hydrogen highways for
hydrogen-powered vehicles; to establish a hydrogen-powered
society, including for example, hydrogen towns, and to pro-
mote micro combined heat and power (CHP) systems and
HFCVs. Japan leads the number of patents and quality of HFCV
research [34]. Since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster in
2011, Japan has required many alternative sources of energy
to support economic growth and the quality of life of its citi-
zens, especially as part of the government's program of
“Abeconomics”, which is appearing to be effective in raising
Japan's economy from its sorry position. A hydrogen-powered
society can provide green jobs and help Japan to overcome the
obstacles to meeting its global responsibility to mitigate CO2
19295
emissions. Developed countries such as Japan may face an
increasing burden of mitigating CO2 emissions and reducing
their negative impact on the climate. Therefore, this investi-
gation discusses the feasibility of Japan's developing hydrogen
supply chains in all instances and a hydrogen economy.
Various economic models can be used to investigate
hydrogen-related issues, such as the computable equilibrium
model (CGE), linear programming (LP), and the inputeoutput
model (IO). The CGE model is suitable for evaluating the
possible development of new energy, based on optimal be-
haviors of members in an economy with price adjustments,
resources constraints, various production technologies and
principles of market equilibrium. Evaluation of the impact of
the development of a hydrogen economy requires a compre-
hensive economic energy model [5,6,8,27].
The dynamic GTAP model is a global CGE model [35] that
was developed by Refs. [36], and is typically utilized to
examine issues related to free trade. Lee [8] modified the dy-
namic GTAP model to incorporate the biohydrogen industry
for the evaluation of a continent-wide roadmap to a hydrogen
economy. The present investigation modifies and extends the
model that was introduced, and utilizes a CGE, combined with
the life cycle assessment (CGE-LCA) method that was devel-
oped by Refs. [37], to elucidate all the upstream and down-
stream industrial linkage effects and the life-cycle CO2
emissions of the hydrogen supply chain. This study investi-
gation uses a modified dynamic GTAP for hydrogen supply
chain, combined with LCA to evaluate to the total CO2 emis-
sions associated with the development of a hydrogen supply
chain in Japan. To the best of the author's knowledge, this
investigation may be the first to use the dynamic GTAP-LCA
method to evaluate the of a hydrogen supply chain.
This investigation contributes to the literature on eco-
nomic evaluation of hydrogen supply chain and CGE-LCA
method in four ways. First, this investigation incorporates
complete) hydrogen-related supply chains (industries),
including hydrogen fuel cells (HFC), hydrogen fuel cell vehi-
cles (HFCV), hydrogen fueling stations (HFS), and three
hydrogen-generating technologies e conventional steam
reforming, electrolysis, and biological hydrogen. Little of the
pertinent economic literature uses datasets with detailed,
up-to-date cost and output data concerning the hydrogen
supply chains. Second, the dynamic GTAP (Global Trade
Analysis Project) model is modified by applying competition
relations between biological, steam reforming and electrol-
ysis technologies for generating hydrogen, and then having
hydrogen compete with other secondary energies, such as
electricity, gas manufacture and distribution (gas) and pe-
troleum (refining). The model separates the energy sub-
stitutes into primary and secondary energy products, as did
[8]. Third, the computable equilibrium model (CGE) is com-
bined with the life cycle assessment (LCA) method that was
developed by Ref. [37] to simulate the CO2 emissions by the
hydrogen industry under policy conditions. With respect to
scenario design, the policies instituted by Japan following the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, and new CO2 emission
mitigation targets adopted in the Warsaw Climate Change
Conference (19th Conference of Parties, COP 19), under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
are considered.
19296 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

( )
X
58
Models, data and scenario design Min: Cc;i;r ¼ Xc;i;r *Pc;i;r
c¼1

Model ( ) 1
X
58
ri;r
ri;r
s:t: Yi;r ¼ Ai;r di;r *Xc;i;r (1)
c¼1
The dynamic GTAP model uses dynamic economic growth
theory, including capital stock accumulation, investment P 1
di;r ¼ 1; 1  di;r < 0; di;r ¼ 
behavior and population growth, to forecast global trade 1 þ ri;r
linearization. The model draws on a global inputeoutput where Cc;i;r , Xc;i;r , and Pc;i;r represent the cost of production,
database for 129 countries and 57 sectors, and so can account and the quantity and the price of commodity c for sector i in
for such global economic issues as regional free trade areas region r; and Yi;r , Ai;r , di;r and ri;r represent the production
and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). value, technology, substitution elasticity and parameter for
The GTAP model is a composite model that allows for a sector i in region r. In this study, r refers to Japan. Equation (1)
series of optimal behaviors by all agents in the national refers to a situation in which firms purchase all used mate-
economies of the world; it therefore has a so-called nested rials at the lowest cost for use with a feasible production
structure (Fig. 1). The supply of commodities depends on how technology.
firms seek to optimize their profit, such as by minimizing After the constrained optimization problem is solved using
production costs or maximizing profit, given a particular the Largrangian method to yield the production input demand
production technology and budget. The optimization of firms function of the energy, a linearization procedure is performed
can be decided by minimizing production cost subject to to obtain Eq. (2) in the percentage change (%) form.
production function (technology) is shown in Eq. (1).

Fig. 1 e Nested production structure for GTAP model with modified energy substitution mechanism.
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
h i 1
xc;i;r ¼ yi;r  si;r * pc;i;r  pi;r ; where si;r ¼ 
1 þ ri;r
X (2)
pi;r ¼ Sc;i;r *pc;i;r
c
where xi;r , pc;i;r and Sc;i;r denote the quantity of commodity,
price of commodity and share of production of commodity
purchased by sector i in region r; yi;r , pi;r and si;r represent the
production, weighted average price and substitution elasticity
of production for sector i in region r. Other variables in lower
case are defined as for Eq. (1). In this study, the subscript “i”
refers to all industries, including six hydrogen-related
industries.
Equation (2) implies if the price of specific production of
industry i is lower than the weighted average price of whole
industries (pc;i;r  pi;r < 0) because of advanced production
technology such as hydrogen industry, the demand for spe-
cific industry i in region r (xc;i;r ) increases. The range of demand
depends on the substitution elasticity (si;r ).
Demand depends on commodity prices and their effects on
firms, households (consumers), governments and exporters'
consumption of optimization from both domestic and foreign
markets. The demand-side equilibriums for all agents of the
global economies mentioned above follow the similar optimal
process of supply-side optimal decisions to achieve the de-
mand equilibrium. The market price and quantity of com-
modity at equilibrium are determined when global and local
exchanges are completed, and when demand equals supply in
both local and global markets.
To capture realistic competition between different
hydrogen-generating technologies, the dynamic GTAP model
for biohydrogen, developed by Refs. [8], is modified herein.
The energy alternatives in the modified GTAP model with the
energy in nested structure are separated into primary energy
and secondary energy products. Primary energy is used
without conversion or transformation, while secondary en-
ergy for usage as energy carrier (such as hydrogen). Primary
energy products include crude oil, natural gas and coal, while
secondary energy products include composited hydrogen,
petro-refinery and chemical products.
This investigation considers three technologies for the
composite generation of hydrogen e biological, steam
reforming and electrolysis. Firms who require hydrogen as an
input material will choose cheaper hydrogen-generating
technology to minimize their cost of production. Degrees of
substitution depend on the elasticity of different energies.
Total used hydrogen comprises various shares of three kinds
of hydrogen. Composited hydrogen production competes with
the production of other secondary energies, such as elec-
tricity, gas and petro-refinery products. Firms also choose
cheaper materials and inputs to minimize their total produc-
tion cost under feasible production technology and budgets.
This investigation elucidates the realistic interconnections
among HFCV, HFC and HFS hydrogen-related industries and
side. A more complete supply chain will reflect more accu-
rately the economic effects on hydrogen development. To add
six hydrogen industries into GTAP database require data on
costs and estimated production for forecasting. Ianchovichina
and Walmsley [36] presented in detail the structure and
equations of the dynamic GTAP model.
19297
Data and model parameters
To add new hydrogen-related industries into the model
because these are new sectors for Japan, data for supply
chains, sales chains and the outputs of hydrogen-related in-
dustries are required. Input costs, which include the costs of
intermediate inputs (semi-manufactured goods from other
industries) and primary inputs (labor, capital goods, land, and
natural resources) for production are required to construct the
supply chain. Sales chains for the outputs of hydrogen-related
industries use similar industry's logistical distribution to a
detailed inputeoutput table for Japan. For instance, the sales
chain of HFCV is similar to the sales chain for cars; that of
biohydrogen is similar to the conventional hydrogen; that of
HFC comprises that of batteries (50%) and that of electricity
(50%). The production value and detailed costs of six
hydrogen-related sectors are estimated from survey data from
Japan, an inputeoutput table for Japan and relevant literature
[38] (Table 1).
Hydrogen is generated by three methods in the given
estimated proportions; steam reforming (95%), electrolysis
(4%), and biological methods (1%). To estimate the production
value of three types of hydrogen produced, the latest
inputeoutput table for Japan in the year 2007 is used, and the
production value of hydrogen is US$4653.645 million. Ac-
cording to the shares of production, the values of hydrogen
production by steam reforming, electrolysis and biological
process are US$ 4420.832 million, US$186.1403 million and
US$46.6520 million. According to a study of the production of
HFS, one hydrogen fueling station in Japan costs 0.4 billion yen
to build; in 2013, 17 stations were operational. The estimated
total value of production at hydrogen fueling stations is
US$67.864 million. The value of the production of HFC, is
US$568.86 million. Finally, the value of HFCV production is
determined from Japan's IO table [38] for 2005 was US$67.6390
million. After the values of production by six-hydrogen related
sectors are specified, the distribution of output to the supply
chain and the sales chain, all of which are added to Japan's
GTAP dataset (Table 2).
CGE with the LCA method reveals the economics of up-
stream and downstream inter-industrial linkages under
optimal behavior in response to policy shocks, as determined
using the CGE model. The results can be multiplied by the
coefficients of greenhouse gases per (unit dollars of produc-
tion value, such as the CO2 emission coefficients, to yield the
consequential-LCA (from cradle to grave) emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since the base year of the GTAP
dataset is 2007, the data and calculations in this study are also
based on the year 2007. The CO2 emission coefficients that
relate emission to a particular unit (such as one dollar of
production value) are calculated for all industries in Japan by
dividing Japan's CO2 emissions in 2007 by the relevant pro-
duction values.
This study adopts IPCC Guidelines [39] method to calculate
CO2 emission, which uses CO2 emission coefficient (EF) per
unit production value for each industry for Japan in base year
2007 to multiple the forecasting results for industry produc-
tion value from year 2008e2060 in Japan under scenario
design setting by this study. The method adopted by this study
 19298
Table 1 e Cost shares for six hydrogen-related industries. Unit: million USD.
H2 fueling station H2 fuel cell HFCV Biohydrogen Electrolysis Steam reforming

i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
Intermediate inputs Intermediate inputs Intermediate inputs Intermediate inputs Intermediate inputs Intermediate inputs
Hydrogen production 11.0065 Membrane 10.8309 Electric powertrain 0.6722 Biomass drying 3.5143 Water separation 1.3311 Steam methane reformer 1757.1074
equipment tanks
Purifier 1.8299 GDL 13.5387 FC system 7.7788 Gasifier 0.7810 Compressors and 1.3311 Water gas shift reactors 46.9186
pumps
Storage system 11.1977 Catalyst 56.8624 H2 storage 3.8208 Steam generator 1.9524 Water supply 2.6622 PSA system 449.9582
sustem system
Compressor 1.6387 Balance of MEA 16.2464 Body 3.8788 Plant integration 0.7810 Heat exchange 23.9600 Cooling towers 105.2614
and heaters
Dispensor 1.6387 Bipolar plate cost 18.9541 Chasis 4.6843 Gas cleaning 1.1714 THE piping 2.6622 Water systems 167.5064
Additional equipment 0.6691 Balance of stack 8.1232 Assembly 3.3476 Reformer 11.3239 Electrical 5.3244 Piping 167.5064
Installation costs 1.2836 Air management 37.9083 Division cost 11.7000 Shift reactors 1.5619 Misc equipment 6.6556 I&C 61.3400
Contingency 2.6355 Water management 13.5387 Corporate cost 7.4195 Pressure swing 1.5619 Solid oxide 89.1844 Electrical systems 188.7397
absorption electrolyzer
Natural gas 0.8603 Thermal management 21.6619 Dealer cost 7.6223 Compression 10.9334 Maintenance 3.7228 Building and structure 217.0506
Electricity 0.2868 Fuel management 21.6619 Shipping 0.7765 Contigency and fee 5.0762 Insurance 2.7921 Maintenance 101.6791
Maintenance 1.3573 Remaning balance of 51.4469 Maintenance 1.5495 Working capital 0.3905 Operating supplies 0.5584 Insurance 66.3125
system cost
Insurance 1.0180 Maintenance 13.0838 Insurance 1.0105 Raw materials 2.6037 Primary Inputs Primary Inputs
Operating supplies 0.2036 Insurance 8.5329 Primary Inputs Electricity 2.2232 Labor 23.9284 Labor 568.2986
Primary Inputs Primary Inputs Wage 7.9045 Maintenance 0.8979 Capital 22.0275 Capital 523.1531
Labor 25.2348 Wage 135.3907 Capital include 5.2038 Insurance 0.5858
tax
Capital 7.0036 Capital 114.0044 Operating supplies 0.1170
Land 27.0749 Primary Inputs
Labor
0.785789
Capital
0.390739
Production 67.8640 Production 568.86 Production 67.3690 Production Production 186.1403 Production 4420.8320
46.6520
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0 19299

Table 2 e Sales shares for six hydrogen-related industries. Unit: million USD.
H2 fueling Hydrogen Hydrogen fuel H2 steam H2 Biohydrogen
station fuel cell cell vehicle reforming electrolyze
Agriculture 0 0 0 70.1 2.95 0.74
Other crop, waste 0 0 0 9.97 0.42 0.1
Coal 0 0 0 5.55 0.23 0.06
Oil 0 0 0 5.85 0.25 0.06
Gas 0 0 0 46.8 1.97 0.49
Minerals nec 0 0 0 46.48 1.96 0.49
food process 0 0 0 61.67 2.6 0.65
Textiles, wearing 0 0 0 46.65 1.96 0.49
Paper, publishing, wood 0 0 0 115.45 4.86 1.22
Petroleum, coal products 0 0 0 445.6 18.76 4.69
Chemical, rubber, plastic prods 0 0 0 1624.42 68.4 17.1
Mineral products nec 0 0 0 37.7 1.59 0.4
Ferrous metals 0 0 0 17.36 0.73 0.18
Metals nec 0 0 0 20.6 0.87 0.22
Metal products 0 0 0 62.54 2.63 0.66
Motor vehicles and parts 0 170.66 13.47 8.4 0.35 0.09
Transport equipment nec 0 0 0 2.42 0.1 0.03
Electronic equipment 0 0 0 6.5 0.27 0.07
Machinery and equipment nec 0 0 0 68.02 2.86 0.72
Manufactures nec 0 0 0 14.88 0.63 0.16
Electricity 6.79 170.66 0 322.72 13.59 3.4
Gas manufacture, distribution 0 0 0 29.68 1.25 0.31
Water 0 0 0 17.21 0.72 0.18
Construction 0 0 0 29.51 1.24 0.31
Trade 0 0 0 330.49 13.92 3.48
Transport nec 0 0 0 202.91 8.54 2.14
Sea transport 0 0 0 22.27 0.94 0.23
Air transport 0 0 0 14.71 0.62 0.15
Communication 0 0 0 41.11 1.73 0.43
Financial services nec 0 0 0 124.55 5.24 1.31
Insurance 0 0 0 18.1 0.76 0.19
Business services nec 0 0 0 461.77 19.44 4.86
Recreation and other services 0 0 0 33.92 1.43 0.36
PubAdmin/Defence/Health/Educat 0 0 0 42.88 1.81 0.45
Dwellings 0 0 0 11.72 0.49 0.12
H2 Fueling Station 0 0 0 0.03 0 0
Hydrogen Fuel Cell 33.93 0 0 0.22 0.01 0
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle 13.57 7.78 0 0.03 0 0
H2 Steam reforming 0 0 0 0 0 0
H2 Electrolysis 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biohydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0
Consumption 13.57 170.66 26.95 0.01 0 0
Government 0 49.11 26.95 0.01 0 0
Total 67.86 568.86 67.37 4420.83 186.14 46.54

uses country specific emission factors (Japan's EFs) and other per unit production value for industry i of Japan in year t, and
data, this is the Tier 2 method as IPCC's definition. The for- production value of industry i of Japan in year t, industries in
mula for calculation CO2 emission for industry i in year t in Japan and year from 2008 to 2060. The per unit production
Japan is shown in Eq. (3). value of CO2 emission factor of industry i for base year 2007

!
CO2
X CO2
EmissionsJapan;t ¼ Emission FactorCO
i;Japan;t¼2007 *Production Valuei;Japan;t
2
(3)
i

where EmissionCO CO2

Japan;t Emission Factori;Japan;t¼2007 ,
2
can be calculated by CO2 emissions emitted by industry i
Production valueCO 2
i;Japan;t , i and t represents the total CO2 divided by production value for industry i in year 2007 is
emission quantity of Japan in year t, CO2 emission quantity shown in Eq. (4).
 19300
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
Table 3 e Industrial CO2 emission coefficients of Japan.
Industry Production value CO2 emission CO2/production Industry Production value CO2 CO2/production
(million yen) (million ton) value (ton/yen) (million yen) emission value
(million ton) (ton/yen)
1 Agriculture, animal husbandry, 82,049 13,362.0 0.162854 19 Machinery and 403,789 52,074.8 0.128965
forest, fishery equipment nec
2 Crops nec, waste 12,326 14,786.0 1.199609 20 Manufactures nec 78,103 10,072.6 0.128965
3 Coal 52 242.0 4.645413 21 Electricity 158,997 421,225.9 2.649272
4 Oil 405 1883.3 4.645413 22 Gas manufacture, 1372 3636.1 2.649272
distribution
5 Natural Gas 10 47.9 4.645413 23 Water 25,616 0.0 0.000000
6 Minerals nec 11,997 55,732.8 4.645413 24 Construction 592,236 76,377.9 0.128965
7 foodprocess 319,798 41,242.8 0.128965 25 Trade 1,018,570 21,021.7 0.020638
8 Textiles, Apparel, Leather 68,002 8769.9 0.128965 26 Transport nec 339,753 218,300.0 0.642526
9 Paper products, publishing 193,694 24,979.9 0.128965 27 Water transport 65,100 12,411.0 0.190644
10 Petroleum, coal products 243,387 16,015.0 0.065801 28 Air transport 28,292 10,876.0 0.384413
11 Chemical, rubber, plastic 389,090 3299.0 0.008479 29 Communication 180,198 3719.0 0.020638
products
12 Mineral products nec 70,626 9108.3 0.128965 30 Financial services nec 222,776 4597.8 0.020638
13 Ferrous metals 173,448 22,368.8 0.128965 31 Insurance 97,124 2004.5 0.020638
14 Metals nec 64,598 8330.9 0.128965 32 Business services nec 899,967 18,573.9 0.020638
15 Metal products 115,968 14,955.8 0.128965 33 Recreational and other 230,791 4763.2 0.020638
services
16 Motor vehicles and parts 440,674 56,831.6 0.128965 34 Public Administration, 1,132,670 23,376.6 0.020638
Defense, Education, Health
17 Transport equipment nec 45,662 5888.8 0.128965 35 Dwellings 476,746 9839.3 0.020638
18 Electronic equipment 389,638 50,249.7 0.128965 36 Residential 2,363,726 62,777.0 0.026558
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
.
CO2
Emission FactorCO
i;Japan;t¼2007 ¼ Emissioni;Japan;t¼2007 Production Valuei;Japan;t¼2007
2
Japan emitted a total of 1.2352 billion tons CO2 in 2007 (of
which 1.2734 billion tons was residential emission) [40] and
this figure is divided by Japan's total industrial output for 2007
(of 10.9373 trillion Yen) (using Japan's IO table for 2007) (Table
3), to yield the CO2 emission coefficient in the base year.
Multiplying the coefficients by changes in production values
in response to policy shocks from year 2014e2060, as deter-
mined using a dynamic GTAP model, will yield the total in-
dustrial and national CO2 emissions in the future.
The results of CO2 emission factors can be shown in Table
3. In Japan, energy-related industries (such as the coal, oil,
natural gas and other mineral industries) have the highest CO2
emission coefficients. Electricity generation and gas place
second and third, and are followed by crop, waste, transport
and construction industries. The average CO2 emission co-
efficients for Japan are 0.1447 ton per Yen (for industry only)
and 0.1164 ton per Yen (including residential emissions).
In aggregation of regions in GTAP, this study aggregates 129
regions into two regions: Japan and the rest of the world to
focus on the impact on Japan and hydrogen-related in-
dustries. To reveal in the most detail the effects of industrial
linkages on scenario simulations, all of the industries in the
GTAP model, except for agriculture, are considered and six
hydrogen-related industries are added, to yield a total of 41
industries.
To determine the degrees of substitution among three
hydrogen technologies, three primary energies, four second-
ary energies, and between primary and secondary energies,
the substitution elasticities of various industries, such as the
petro-refinery, electricity, chemical materials, battery, ma-
chinery and other related industries, are incorporated built
into the GTAP model. For example, the elasticity of the pe-
troleum refinery industry is 1.26, implying that when the
price of petro-refinery products increases by 1%, the quantity
of energy used decreases by 1.26%. The elasticity between
composite energy and primary inputs, including labor and
capital, is set to 0.5. The products of all hydrogen-related in-
dustries are assumed to be consumed domestically.
Scenario design
In scenario 1, to the baseline forecasts of the dynamic GTAP
model are applied internally growth factors, such as advances
in production technology, capital accumulation, savings,
population growth and variation of price of fossil fuels, to
reflect economic trends and thereby to observe the potential
production values of hydrogen-related industries in Japan and
the rest of world without external investment support.
The dynamic GTAP model uses a procedure that combines
historical simulation (to update the database to current year)
and forecasting simulation. The model uses historical data
that include real GDP and population, published by the In-
ternational Monetary Fund (IMF), to perform the historical
simulation from 2008 to 2012 and thereby to update the
19301
CO2
(4)
database from the base year to 2012. Then, the predicted pa-
rameters of population and technology advance that is pub-
lished by official organizations of the United Nations, IMF and
Japan are they used to forecast the possible economic de-
velopments and trends for Japan from 2013 to 2060. The
baseline scenario captures the importance of six hydrogen
industries in the energy sector and the impacts of basic eco-
nomic growth and their own development trends without
external support. The parameter settings from 2013 to 2060
are as follows. (1) As forecasted by the US Energy Information
Administration [41] and under the assumption of a geometric
growth rate to 2060, the nominal prices of imported crude oil,
natural gas and coal will increase by 1.3187%, 2.3608% and
0.9902% annually, respectively; (2) annual technological ad-
vances in primary materials, and improvements in labor and
the efficiency of capital, imply a reduction of cost of primary
materials in the GTAP model of 0.5% annually until 2060; (3)
the annual improvement in total productivity efficiency in
Japan will be 0.7%; (4) the annual growth rate of the Japanese
population will be 0.4331% and 0.7316% for the rest of the
world [29]; (5) the annual decrease in costs of newly developed
hydrogen industries such as HFCV, HFC, HFS and biohydrogen
excluding steam reforming and electrolysis (the existed in-
dustry) will be 5% [Table 4].
Scenario II captures technological advances in three
hydrogen applications eHFCV, HFC and HFS - in Japan, which
to reveal the impacts on hydrogen supply chain, and the CGE-
LCA method is used to calculate their impact on CO2 emis-
sions. Four sub-simulations are performed with CGE-LCA in
scenario II. The first simulation extends the baseline results to
calculate the CO2 emissions using the CGE-LCA method. Three
other sub-simulations are performed for the HFCV, HFC and
HFS industries. In each, the cost of one technology is reduced
by 20% annually 2013 to 2060 to reveal the sensitivity of
technology advance to the development in hydrogen-related
industries. Sub-simulations II, III and IV involve a policy
shock 20% cost reduction for HFCV, HFC and HFS, respectively.
Following the above, four sub-simulations are run to provide
results concerning the macro and micro economic impacts of
technology advance, and then the CGE-LCA method is used to
calculate the effects of technology advance of hydrogen-related
industry on CO2 emission. The production values from 2008 to
2060 in scenario II that are generated using the GTAP model in
four simulations are multiplied by the CO2 emission coefficients,
calculated from Japan's IO table, to determine the extent to
which developing hydrogen-related industries will mitigate
their CO2 emissions. The results in scenario II provide not only
practical examples of the application of the) CGE-LCA method,
but also the sensitivity of the technology advance and CO2
emission of hydrogen-related industries.
Electricity is one of the major commodities that supports
economic growth and maintains standards of living. Scenario
III explores the role of hydrogen-related industries if nuclear
power plants were all to be shut down as a result of the
19302 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

Table 4 e Parameter settings for historical simulation and baseline forecasting. Unit: %.
2007 base year Historical simulation Forecasting
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 to 2060
Real GDP Japan 1.0416 5.5270 4.6520 0.5846 1.9566 Endogenous
variable
Rest of World 2.698 0.380 5.192 3.9050 3.1770 Endogenous
variable
Population Japan 0.0641 0.0109 0.0023 0.1187 0.2228 0.4331
Rest of World 1.2051 1.2051 1.2051 0.7316 0.7316 0.7316
Productivity efficiency advance Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous 0.70
variable variable variable variable variable
Primary material technology advance Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous 0.50
variable variable variable variable variable
Price of imported crude oil Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous 1.3187
variable variable variable variable variable
Price of natural gas Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous 2.3608
variable variable variable variable variable
Price of coal Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous endogenous Endogenous 0.9902
variable variable variable variable variable
Annual decrease in costs of HFCV, HFC, e e e e e 5%
HFS and biohydrogen

Fukushima nuclear disaster. Using information from the [42],
this investigation estimates that the nuclear disaster is
responsible for reductions in nuclear power generation of
6.3211% in 2011 (1.0427 TWh) and 1.6517% in 2012
(1.0258 TWh) from 2010 (1.1087 TWh) in historical simulation
to perform the negative economic impacts by Fukushima
nuclear disaster (Table 5). In the most extreme case that the
Japanese government has publicly considered, all nuclear
power plants could be shut down from 2013, reducing elec-
tricity generation by 28%. Scenario III tries to capture the ef-
fects of possible nuclear policies, and the results may reveal
how much electricity production moves to hydrogen fuel cells
and related alternative industries.
Finally, this study considers the impacts on new goal for
CO2 emission mitigation by Japan's government in response
to the conclusions of Warsaw Climate Change Conference
that was launched by the UNFCCC, and the related possi-
bility of hydrogen development through performing sce-
nario IV. Japan emitted 1.2317 billion tons of CO2 in 2007. The
latest emissions mitigation target set by Japan's government
is a 3.6% decrease from 2014 to 2020, equivalent to 1.1561
billion tons. This scenario assumes that CO2 emission miti-
gation in the baseline scenario and the strong support sce-
nario reduces the annual cost of HFCV, HFC, HFS and
biohydrogen production by 5% and 20%, respectively. The
results thus obtained may help to identify development
opportunities for hydrogen industries as Japan meets its
Table 5 e Electricity production by Japan. Unit. TWh.
Year TWh
2009 1.043390
2010 1.108652
2011 1.042739
2012 1.025796
Source: World Bank website.
global responsibility to mitigate CO2 emissions. Detailed
settings of four scenarios and sub-simulations are summa-
rized in Table 6.
Results and discussion
Scenario I
Baseline results reveal that the development of Japan's HFCV,
HFC and HFS industries will accompany industrial and eco-
nomic growth. In the baseline scenario, real GDP increases
2.35% annually to 2030, and then slows until 2055, when it
turns negative, possibly because of a decrease in population.
The GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI) turn
negative after year 2028, owing to decreasing social demand in
Japan (might be caused by a population decrease and an en-
ergy price increase), which means long-term economic
growth will slow down. Cumulative real social welfare peaks
around 2058 at US$3.39 trillion (Table 7).
Hydrogen-related and energy industries enjoy the great-
est positive effects of the development of HFCV, and will be
responsible for strengthening the export power of Japan.
HFCV will be the greatest increase in production of all in-
dustries, growing a by cumulative 847.47% from the base
year to 2060, that might be caused by vehicle-related in-
dustries are highly-relation sectors. HFC will grow by
227.65%; HFS will grow by 135.74%. The three methods of
hydrogen generation will grow as follows: biohydrogen will
grow by 130.27%, electrolysis will grow by 126.95% and
steam reforming will grow by 123.92%. These results imply
%
that hydrogen-related generation industries will benefit
e
from the development of the HFCV and other hydrogen
5.8866%
application industry. The results also indicate that the coal,
6.3211%
1.6517% oil and natural gas industries will grow by 360.63%, 410.48%
and 542.25% cumulatively to 2060, implying that economic
growth will result in faster growth of energy-related
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0 19303

Table 6 e Detailed settings for four scenarios design.

Scenario I. 1 Baseline forecasting 1 Historical simulation for 2008 to 2012.
2 Baseline forecasting is to reflect internal economic growth, prices,
technology advances trends from 2013 to 2060.
3 Annual decrease in costs of HFCV, HFC, HFS and biohydrogen in 5%.
Scenario II. 1 Sensitivity analysis 1 Technology advance for hydrogen applications such as hydrogen FC,
2CGE-LCA method. FCV, fueling station and biohydrogen for 20% annually. Not only for
sensitivity analysis, also to reveal the impacts of strong support on
hydrogen-related industries.
2 Using CO2 emission for per production value (ton/yen) in Table 3
to multiple the forecasting production values from 2013 to 2060
to get the LCA results for baseline and three applications.
3 Four sub-simulations are performed.
 Baseline e LCA
 HFCV e LCA
 HFC e LCA
 Biohydrogen e LCA
Scenario III. 1 All nuclear power plants could be 1 Adopts the actual power generation decline for 2011 and 2012
shutdown in Japan, how will be the (Table 5) to simulate the historical impacts of Fukushima nuclear
hydrogen-related industries disaster on Japan's economy.
2 Consider the current policy that could be shut down all nuclear
power plants which will reduce 28% electricity supply in Japan.
Scenario IV. 1 Japan to meet the new emission 1 Japan emitted 1.2317 billion tons of CO2 in 2007. The latest emissions
goal for Warsaw Climate Change mitigation target is a total 3.6% decrease from 2013 to 2020, equivalent
Conference (COP19) to 1.1561 billion tons.
2 Two sub-simulations are performed.
 With settings for cost decrease of scenario I (5%)
 and with setting for cost decrease of scenario II (20%)

industries than of other industries, as the world will still Scenario II

have a petroleum-based economy. The results herein also
demonstrate that Japan's exports will benefit from internal The results of using the sensitivity analysis (20% cost
growth and cost reductions (Table 8). decrease) and CGE-LCA method in four sub-simulations of
scenario II reveal tiny differences among the total CO2

Table 7 e Baseline results for marcroeconomy. Unit: %, million USD.

Year GDP deflator Consumer price Real Welfare Year GDP Consumer Real Welfare
% index % GDP Million USD deflator price GDP million USD
% % index %
%
2013 1.20 1.13 1.09 127,846 2037 0.64 0.43 2.13 2,204,465
2014 1.19 1.11 1.18 187,769 2038 0.69 0.45 2.06 2,303,193
2015 1.14 1.05 1.26 248,083 2039 0.74 0.48 1.99 2,399,755
2016 1.06 0.98 1.36 309,143 2040 0.78 0.50 1.90 2,493,716
2017 0.97 0.89 1.45 371,320 2041 0.82 0.51 1.81 2,584,654
2018 0.88 0.80 1.53 434,947 2042 0.86 0.53 1.71 2,672,156
2019 0.82 0.74 1.85 500,291 2043 0.89 0.53 1.60 2,755,831
2020 0.72 0.65 1.94 577,046 2044 0.92 0.54 1.49 2,835,308
2021 0.62 0.56 2.02 656,530 2045 0.94 0.54 1.37 2,910,248
2022 0.52 0.46 2.09 738,834 2046 0.96 0.54 1.25 2,980,344
2023 0.42 0.37 2.16 823,980 2047 0.97 0.53 1.11 3,045,329
2024 0.32 0.29 2.21 911,921 2048 0.98 0.52 0.98 3,104,978
2025 0.23 0.21 2.26 1,002,552 2049 0.98 0.50 0.84 3,159,113
2026 0.14 0.13 2.30 1,095,711 2050 0.97 0.48 0.69 3,207,605
2027 0.05 0.06 2.33 1,191,190 2051 0.95 0.45 0.55 3,250,376
2028 0.03 0.01 2.35 1,288,739 2052 0.93 0.42 0.40 3,287,394
2029 0.11 0.08 2.36 1,388,074 2053 0.89 0.38 0.26 3,318,677
2030 0.19 0.13 2.36 1,488,879 2054 0.85 0.34 0.11 3,344,288
2031 0.26 0.19 2.35 1,590,812 2055 0.80 0.29 0.03 3,364,329
2032 0.33 0.24 2.34 1,693,509 2056 0.75 0.24 0.17 3,378,940
2034 0.46 0.33 2.28 1,796,584 2057 0.68 0.18 0.30 3,388,289
2035 0.53 0.36 2.24 2,002,252 2058 0.61 0.12 0.43 3,392,571
2036 0.58 0.40 2.19 2,104,006 2059 0.53 0.06 0.55 3,391,999
2060 0.45 0.01 0.66 3,386,802
19304 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

Table 8 e Baseline results for industry production. Unit: %.

Cumulative results (percentage change from 2008 to 2060)
Industry Total production Export growth Industry Total production Export
growth rate (%) rate (%) growth rate (%) growth rate
(%)
Agriculture 73.54 184.16 Gas manufacture, distribution 114.17 290.73
Other crop, waste 73.06 201.86 Water 81.08 280.38
Coal 360.63 39.46 Construction 53.15 185.80
Oil 410.48 54.57 Trade 106.11 315.67
Gas 542.25 74.17 Transport nec 69.62 256.61
Minerals nec 88.28 413.97 Sea transport 254.55 236.21
food process 71.01 189.46 Air transport 282.65 239.38
Textiles, wearing 184.07 223.71 Communication 108.93 335.53
Paper, publishing, wood 94.26 298.94 Financial services nec 147.79 349.99
Petroleum, coal products 31.89 259.33 Insurance 141.67 327.68
Chemical,rubber,plastic prods 23.41 291.32 Business services nec 100.48 320.21
Mineral products nec 57.25 396.87 Recreation and other services 104.69 286.88
Ferrous metals 35.10 399.52 PubAdmin/Defence/Health/Educat 99.78 261.40
Metals nec 25.32 362.47 Dwellings 215.65 510.16
Metal products 76.98 327.85 H2 fueling station 135.41 e
Motor vehicles and parts 198.31 214.99 Hydrogen fuel cell 227.65 e
Transport equipment nec 175.01 180.75 Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle 847.47 e
Electronic equipment 80.99 230.88 H2 steam reforming 123.92 e
Machinery and equipment nec 134.19 203.53 H2 electrolysis 126.95 e
Manufactures nec 65.23 250.47 Biohydrogen 130.27 e
Electricity 43.40 285.73 Capital goods 38.16

emissions of industries (Table 9). Considering the CO2 emis-
sion coefficients in Japan provided by this study, it is inter-
esting that petroleum product (0.0658 ton/yen) and chemical,
rubber and plastic (0.008479 ton/yen) sectors are lower than
average and not as expected, it might be caused by the large
production value and apply the CO2 emission control tech-
nology in these industries. Water sector is good for environ-
ment because its CO2 emission is zero.
Relative to the baseline, Japanese CO2 emissions will in-
crease to 2207.4123 million tons, three simulations for HFCV,
HFC and biohydrogen are 2207.4134, 2204.3953 and 2207.4297
million tons. These findings indicate that hydrogen applica-
tions and biohydrogen have not significant impact on total CO2
emissions because of the hydrogen-related industries are
relative small in Japan's economy. And development of
hydrogen industry will induce development of its upstream
and downstream industries that will increase the usage of
materials to emit more CO2. The supply chain of hydrogen
needs to be clean and sustainable which make hydrogen to be a
clean energy thoroughly. Production value will increase from
8.57 trillion yen in 2007 to around 17.36 trillion yen in 2060.
The results of sub-simulation I demonstrate that HFCV is
the fastest growing industry (847.5%) of the six hydrogen in-
dustries, followed by HFC and HFS. When costs are reduced by
20% annually, the cumulative growth rate of HFCV increases by
2883011.3% to 2060 in sub-simulation II, that of HFC increases
by 289392.4%, and that of biohydrogen increases by 178.6%. The
results imply that HFCV is the most sensitive to technological
advances, followed by HFC and HFS. The impacts of these ad-
vances on the three technologies are similar across the four
simulations, as all exhibit growth rates of 123%e130%. The
growth rate of biohydrogen exceeds those of electrolysis and
steam reforming. In sub-simulation IV, the growth rate of
biohydrogen is 178.6% - much higher than those of the other
two hydrogen-generating technologies (Table 10).
Scenario III
Scenario III simulates the extreme case in which all nuclear
power plants are shutdown. The results demonstrate that
other electricity sources how to fill the supply gap. Coal, oil
and natural gas-based generation increase by 324.07%,
395.09% and 536.72%, even the prices of fossil fuels will still
increase to year 2060. Natural gas-based generation increases
the most, consistent with the current trend that Japan is
importing large amounts of natural gas for generating elec-
tricity. The use of gas and petro-refinery products also in-
creases, implying the emission of GHGs and air pollutants also
increase, to the detriment of the environment.
With respect to the hydrogen industries, HFCV will grow by
707.19% and HFC will grow by 50.78% (Table 11), because of
price variations of petroleum refinery products (substitution
effects). Since the three hydrogen-generating technologies
compete with electricity, gas and petro-refinery products, a
decrease in electricity production is mainly compensated for
by the gas and petro-refinery industries, reducing the output
value of hydrogen generating industries. The production of
hydrogen by steam reforming and electrolysis decrease by
approximately 30%, because of increases in the percentage
change growth of prices of natural gas becomes around 4%e
6% more expensive than electricity after year 2018. The in-
creases in the prices of hydrogen produced by steaming
reforming and electrolysis are smaller than those of natural
gas and electricity.
The generation of biohydrogen increases by 4.35%, because
of an annual cost decrease of 3% to 1% continuously, and
Table 9 e CO2 emission for four simulations using CGE-LCA method of Scenario II. Unit: million yen, thousand tons CO2 emission, ton/yen.
2007 CO2 Baseline-LCA HFCV-LCA HFC-LCA BioH2-LCA
Production Emission
2060 2060 2060 2060 2060 2060 2060 2060
value coefficient
Production CO2 Production CO2 Production CO2 Production CO2
value emission value emission value emission value emission
Agriculture, Animal 82,048.7 0.162854 142,384.0 23,187.9 142,384.2 23,187.9 142,394.9 23,189.6 142,384.0 23,187.9
husbandry, Forest,
fishery

i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0
Crops nec, waste 12,325.7 1.199609 21,330.5 25,588.3 21,330.5 25,588.3 21,333.7 25,592.1 21,331.0 25,588.9
Coal 52.1 4.645413 240.0 1114.8 240.0 1114.8 240.0 1114.8 240.0 1114.9
Oil 405.4 4.645413 2069.5 9613.9 2069.5 9613.9 2069.6 9613.9 2069.6 9613.9
Gas 10.3 4.645413 66.2 307.6 66.2 307.6 66.2 307.6 66.2 307.6
Minerals nec 11,997.4 4.645413 22,588.7 104,934.0 22,588.7 104,934.0 22,588.5 104,932.9 22,588.8 104,934.3
foodprocess 319,797.6 0.128965 546,882.5 70,528.9 546,883.7 70,529.0 546,907.1 70,532.1 546,883.4 70,529.0
Textiles, Apparel, 68,002.0 0.128965 193,170.3 24,912.3 193,170.3 24,912.3 193,173.4 24,912.7 193,167.3 24,911.9
Leather
Paper products, 193,694.3 0.128965 376,279.5 48,527.0 376,279.7 48,527.0 376,288.7 48,528.2 376,280.2 48,527.1
publishing
Petroleum, coal 243,386.9 0.065801 320,997.2 21,121.8 320,997.3 21,121.8 320,996.7 21,121.8 320,997.8 21,121.8
products
Chemical, rubber, 389,090.1 0.008479 480,168.3 4071.2 480,168.0 4071.2 480,183.8 4071.4 480,165.1 4071.2
plastic products
Mineral products nec 70,625.7 0.128965 111,055.7 14,322.3 111,055.7 14,322.3 111,056.0 14,322.4 111,056.5 14,322.4
Ferrous metals 173,448.4 0.128965 234,333.9 30,220.9 234,333.7 30,220.9 234339.6 30,221.7 234,339.6 30,221.7
Metals nec 64,598.3 0.128965 80,951.6 10,439.9 80,951.4 10,439.9 80954.4 10,440.3 80,952.5 10,440.1
Metal products 115,967.8 0.128965 205,237.8 26,468.6 205,238.1 26,468.6 205,240.0 26,468.8 205,240.2 26,468.9
Motor vehicles 440,673.8 0.128965 1,314,572.3 169,534.3 1,314,574.2 169,534.5 1,314,559.2 169,532.6 1,314,548.4 169,531.2
and parts
Transport equipment 45,662.1 0.128965 125,573.3 16,194.6 125,573.1 16,194.6 125,574.2 16,194.7 125,569.9 16,194.2
nec
Electronic equipment 389,637.6 0.128965 705,194.4 90,945.6 705,194.0 90,945.6 705,339.2 90,964.3 705,189.9 90,945.1
Machinery and 403,789.3 0.128965 945,648.9 121,955.9 945,646.8 121,955.7 945,707.3 121,963.5 945,742.8 121,968.0
equipment nec
Manufactures nec 78,103.5 0.128965 129,051.3 16,643.1 129,051.5 16,643.2 129,054.5 16,643.6 129,051.9 16,643.2
Electricity 158,996.9 2.649272 228,001.4 604,037.6 228,001.5 604,038.0 227,978.2 603,976.2 228,002.8 604,041.4
Gas manufacture, 1372.5 2.649272 2939.4 7787.3 2939.4 7787.3 2939.5 7787.6 2939.4 7787.2
distribution
Water 25,616.2 0 46,387.0 0.0 46,387.1 0.0 46,388.3 0.0 46,387.2 0.0
Construction 592,235.9 0.128965 907,007.5 116,972.5 907,009.3 116,972.8 906,975.9 116,968.5 907,018.9 116,974.0
Trade 1,018569.5 0.020638 2,099,357.4 43,327.5 2,099,363.0 43,327.7 2,099,419.0 43,328.8 2,099,365.1 43,327.7
Transport nec 339,752.7 0.642526 576,285.7 370,278.7 576,286.2 370,278.9 576,297.3 370,286.1 576,288.5 370,280.5
Water transport 65,100.5 0.190644 230,815.6 44,003.6 230,815.4 44,003.5 230,815.9 44,003.6 230,814.9 44,003.4
Air transport 28,292.5 0.384413 108,260.7 41,616.9 108,260.5 41,616.8 108,261.1 41,617.0 108,260.1 41,616.6
Communication 180,198.1 0.020638 376,492.9 7770.2 376,493.7 7770.3 376,503.9 7770.5 376,494.5 7770.3
Financial services 222,775.9 0.020638 552,014.8 11,392.7 552,015.6 11,392.8 552,029.3 11,393.0 552,015.7 11,392.8

19305
nec
(continued on next page)
19306 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

prices of other two alternatives of generating methods are still

2,207,429.7
37,237.3

46,702.7

31,058.2
4844.4

9750.0
emission
2060 growing around 6%e2.84% in 2060. This finding reveals the
CO2 potential of development of biohydrogen (Table 12).
The prices of hydrogen applications are also decreasing in
BioH2-LCA

the future. The prices of HFCV will decrease around 5%e6%

each year, HFS will decrease around 5%, and HFC will also

17,364,625.3
234,725.0

472,417.1
Production

1,804,266.1

2,262,896.5

1,504,868.2
decrease around 3% in the future. Three classes of hydrogen
value
2060

applications will induce the development and demand of

hydrogen generation, especially biohydrogen.

Scenario IV
2,207,395.3
4844.5

9750.3
37,238.0

46,702.9

31,059.3
emission
2060
CO2

The scenario IV reveals the opportunity for hydrogen-related

industries as Japan seeks to meet its global responsibility to
HFC-LCA

mitigate CO2 emissions. As mentioned above, the baseline

setting assumes a basic cost decrease for 5% of hydrogen in-
17,364,970.2
234,733.2

472,431.9
1,804,300.7

2,262,905.4

1504923.7
Production

dustries. Strong support means that the government encour-

value
2060

ages public and private investment in R&D by the hydrogen

industries (except in steam reforming and electrolysis) to
reduce cost of production for 20% annually and establish a
hydrogen supply chain.
2,207,413.4
4844.3

9750.0
37,237.1

46,702.6

31,058.2
emission

Economic growth rate is typically accompanied by varia-

2060
CO2

tions of CO2 emissions. The results of two simulations reveal

negative GDP growth of 0.45% and 0.43% in 2020, which
HFCV-LCA

results from a forced negative growth rate in CO2 emissions.

The average price of Japanese economy will also declines by
17,364,522.9
234,722.3

472,417.2
1,804,258.2

2,262,890.3

1,504,866.4
Production

0.71% to 0.73% in 2020, implying that Japan faces price

value
2060

deflation that is caused by a decline in both demand and

supply. Price deflation is the major outcome of the price
bubble in Japanese assets.
The negative real GDP growth will reduce demand for the
products of most industries, including the hydrogen in-
2,207412.3
4844.3

9749.9
37,237.1

46,702.7

31,058.1
emission
2060

dustries. HFCV will exhibit the highest positive growth rate

CO2

under with the baseline settings, followed by HFC and bio-

Baseline-LCA

hydrogen. In the strong support setting, HFCV and HFC grow

most strongly by 13.58% and 7.56% in 2020, followed by bio-
17,364,506.0
1,804,255.9

2,262,892.5

1,504,861.5
234,721.6

472,415.9
Production

hydrogen and HFS. The hydrogen technologies that will fare

value

worst are steam reforming and electrolysis, because of the

2060

rising price of fossil fuels and the decrease in the supply

electricity (Table 13).
coefficient

Discussion
Emission

0.026558
0.020638
0.020638
0.020638

0.020638

0.020638
CO2

Baseline forecasting demonstrates that a population decrease

and increases in prices of fossil fuels will lead decreases in
labor supply, household consumption and government tax
Production

revenue and consumption, which will turn economic growth

8,573524.5
97,124.0
899,966.5
230,791.0

1,132669.5

476,746.0
value
2007

negative for Japan in the future, even though the baseline

settings includes technological advances that improve total
production efficiency, efficiency of labor and capital, and
hydrogen production. Results suggest that Japan will suffer
Table 9 e (continued )

from an aging population, and a low fertility rate, and there-

Recreational and other

Public administration,
Business services nec

defense, education,

fore a population decrease. Consequently, as mentioned

above, Japan will suffer from price deflation that is caused by
economic recession. These double negative shocks will influ-
ence Japan's economic growth in the future. Results imply that
services
Insurance

Dwellings
health

energy consumption, demand of fossil fuels and renewable

Total

energies might decrease in the future, which are the disin-

centives against the development of hydrogen industry.
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0 19307

Table 10 e Growth rate of six hydrogen industries of Scenario II. Unit: %.

Technology advance 20% per year in HFCV, Baseline HFCV HFC BioH2
HFC and bioH2 from 2014 to 2060 20% 20% 20%
Hydrogen fueling station 135.4 135.4 135.4 135.4
Hydrogen fuel cell 227.7 227.7 2,89,392.4 227.7
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle 847.5 2,883,011.3 2465.6 847.5
Hydrogen steam reforming 123.9 123.9 123.9 123.9
Hydrogen electrolysis 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0
Biohydrogen 130.3 130.3 130.3 178.6

Sub-simulation I and sub-simulation II both reveal that in
scenario II, HFC induces HFCV is bigger than HFCV induces
HFC by 10.8 times (2465.6/227.7), implying that HFC exhibits
stronger industrial linkage effects than HFCV. Investing in
HFC will induce more development of hydrogen-related in-
dustries and increase their production to a greater extent. The
result also implies that no backward linkage effect of HFCV
should be expected, unlike when the car industry was a strong
driver of economic growth. HFC not only has a larger forward
linkage effect than HFCV, but it also has a slightly stronger
backward linkage effect on production of three hydrogen
generating technologies.
HFCV is in a small-scale industry in its early stage. This fact
explains why its cumulative growth over the next 50 years is
so great (2,883,011%). HFC will grow by 289392% in that period.
Even with the baseline settings with a 5% cost reduction made
by technology advance, HFCV is still the fastest-growing in-
dustry of the six hydrogen-related industries, implying that
HFCV is can be more easily driven to development than the
other industries. The growth rate of HFCV is approximately
ten times that of HFC, implies that HFCV's driven effects by
itself is larger than HFC.
Finally, biohydrogen undergoes more development than
the other two generating technologies, but the degree of
development is still small. Biohydrogen therefore has the
potential gradually to become a major hydrogen-generating
technology. HFS sees stable growth, because HFS is related
to infrastructure, and provides the link between hydrogen
supply and demand. The results indicate that HFCV and HFC
are at the center of the overall hydrogen industry. If govern-
ments or investors want to stimulate or participate in
hydrogen industry, they should target HFCV and HFC.
Scenario I reveals that the positive impacts on hydrogen
application sectors such as HFCV, HFC and HFS are greater than
hydrogen generation sectors such as biohydrogen, steam
reforming and electrolysis. Scenario II performs sensitivity
analysis which reveals that HFCV, HFC and biohydrogen are the
three industries that are most sensitive to technology advance.
The four simulations of scenario II reveal that the CGE-LCA
method of Lee et al. (2011) is more than the EIO-LCA method
(environmental inputeoutput LCA) for determining carbon or
ecological footprints, and takes less time to implement than
process-based LCA (direct-LCA and SETAP/EPA-LCA) and
hybrid-LCA methods.
In scenario III, the real GDP of Japan reaches 2% around
2018, and becomes negative after 2035 - 20 years before 2055,
indicating that nuclear power is important to economic
growth. Therefore, the Japanese government may restart nu-
clear power plants in upcoming months (Fig. 2).
Total electricity generation will decrease by 10.60% in 2020,
which is much less than the share of nuclear power, which is
approximately 28%. The difference, 17.40% (28% minus

Table 11 e Results of scenario III for industrial production. Unit: %.

Industry Production % Industry Production %
Agriculture 34.22 Electricity
Other crop, waste 34.19 Gas manufacture, distribution 53.70
Coal 324.07 Water 20.73
Oil 395.09 Construction 7.18
Gas 536.72 Trade 45.89
Minerals nec 4.44 Transport nec 19.49
food process 28.60 Sea transport 228.12
Textiles, wearing 93.09 Air transport 212.97
Paper, publishing, wood 13.61 Communication 49.84
Petroleum, coal products 13.00 Financial services nec 77.66
Chemical, rubber, plastic prods 39.71 Insurance 93.80
Mineral products nec 25.99 Business services nec 35.03
Ferrous metals 52.50 Recreation and other services 43.24
Metals nec 74.86 PubAdmin/Defence/Health/Educat 49.41
Metal products 18.42 Dwellings 148.82
Motor vehicles and parts 81.78 H2 fueling station 4.71
Transport equipment nec 46.47 Hydrogen fuel cell 50.78
Electronic equipment 35.37 Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle 707.19
Machinery and equipment 35.59 H2 steam reforming 30.15
Manufactures nec 4.60 H2 electrolyze 30.03
Biohydrogen 4.35
19308 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0

Biohydrogen 10.60%), must be made up by other electricity-generating

technologies, and this result implies that the modification of
0.72
0.16
1.22
2.41
3.59
3.19
3.10
3.09
3.45
3.71
3.59
3.16
2.62
2.18
1.95
1.93
1.92
1.92
1.92
1.93
dynamic GTAP model to include secondary energies (nested
structure) is correct.
In scenario IV, a comparison between two sub-simulations
reveals even in a decrease of GDP which induced by reduction
of CO2 emissions by 3.6% circumstance, HFCV and HFC in-
Electrolysis

dustries will have a strongly positive effect between sub-

3.50
4.18
5.00
5.93
6.91
1.74
1.84
1.84
1.38
1.00
1.01
1.37
1.90
2.41
2.73
2.77
2.80
2.82
2.84
2.84
simulation 2 and sub-simulation 1 (HFCV and HFC will in-
crease 12.12% and 7.76% in 2020). The growth of HFCV and
HFC will induce an increase of real GDP by 0.22%e0.02% be-
tween sub-simulation 2 and sub-simulation 1 from 2014 to
reforming
Steam

2020, partially compensating for the negative effects of

3.50
4.18
4.99
5.93
6.90
1.74
1.84
1.84
1.38
1.00
1.01
1.37
1.90
2.41
2.74
2.77
2.80
2.83
2.84
2.84
reduced growth. To meet its CO2 emission mitigation target,
even a developed country such as Japan, which has sufficient
technological competence and a sufficiently flexible economic
HFCV

4.76
4.93
5.11
5.29
5.39
3.74
3.61
3.62
4.31
5.18
5.85
6.24
6.32
6.09
5.64
5.54
5.45
5.36
5.28
5.22
structure, must pay a high price, suggesting that developing
and the least developed countries (LDC) may suffer an even
more negative impact economically when addressing the
H2 fuel

issue of climate change. The green climate fund that was

4.15
5.53
6.89
8.06
8.83
3.27
3.17
3.18
3.69
4.11
4.13
3.84
3.42
3.06
2.82
2.79
2.77
2.75
2.74
2.74
cell

launched by UNFCCC at COP 19 requires developed countries

to provide $100 billion to support developing and LDC coun-
tries, and imposes greater burdens on developed countries
H2 fueling

which are deemed primarily responsible for global warming

station
4.98
4.97
4.97
4.96
4.95
4.99
4.99
5.00
5.02
4.99
4.96
4.94
4.93
4.92
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.89
4.89

and climate change to date.

To overcome the price inflation that is caused by CO2
emission mitigation, which requires green growth, fiscal and
monetary policy set by governments and central banks, and
0.40
0.23
0.05
0.10
0.17
1.48
1.60
1.55
0.69
0.24
0.81
0.96
0.71
0.16
0.51
0.63
0.74
0.85
0.94
1.02
Gas

technological advances made by green investments (green

financing) in R&D, are required. These are not only the goals of
Abeonomics, promoted by Japan’s current Prime Minister, but
Electricity

also the goals for countries that face the negative impacts of
24.93
26.02
26.82
27.08
26.59
2.30
2.38
2.36
1.96
1.82
2.16
2.78
3.36
3.67
3.71
3.70
3.67
3.64
3.61
3.57

climate change and global warming. A green economy and a

low carbon economy may provide opportunities for devel-
oping new sources of energy and creating green jobs (green
Petroleum

collar), to help bring the economy onto a new path of growth.

refinery
2.75
3.06
3.42
3.81
4.20
2.47
2.52
2.62
3.03
3.51
4.00
4.39
4.58
4.56
4.37
4.32
4.26
4.20
4.14
4.08

Hydrogen-related industries may be able to meet the re-

quirements of the green economy.
Table 12 e Results of scenario III for industrial price. Unit: %.

energy
Other

Conclusions
2.14
2.46
2.86
3.35
3.92
1.84
2.02
2.05
1.62
1.09
0.79
0.72
0.87
1.29
1.90
2.01
2.11
2.20
2.27
2.32

This study tries to establish more complete supply chains of

Natural gas

hydrogen-related industries than have heretofore been

developed in the economic literature. Doing so provides more
3.70
4.57
5.38
6.14
6.80
5.14
5.09
5.13
5.26
5.72
6.18
6.32
6.02
5.39
4.69
4.56
4.43
4.31
4.20
4.10

realistic forecasts that serve as references for policy-makers

not only in Japan, but also in similar developed countries as
they respond to climate change.
This study uses the CGE-LCA method of developed by Lee
Crude oil

et al. (2011) as a practical, reasonable and more time-efficient

1.80
1.93
2.07
2.21
2.35
2.16
2.22
2.34
2.89
3.42
3.88
4.15
4.20
4.04
3.77
3.71
3.65
3.59
3.53
3.46

method than EIO-LCA or process-based LCA. To the best of the

author’s knowledge, this investigation is one of the first arti-
cles on the dynamic GTAP-LCA method. The results of this
Coal

2.42
2.72
3.04
3.34
3.59
1.58
1.61
1.69
1.94
2.03
2.03
1.91
1.68
1.41
1.23
1.21
1.19
1.17
1.16
1.15

investigation will contribute to the future application of CGE-

LCA to identify new methods for analyzing many environ-
mental effects - not only CO2 emissions. Sensitivity analysis
commodity

revealed the potential of hydrogen-related industries to grow,

Price of

and HFCV, HFC and biohydrogen are identified as the top

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060

three hydrogen-generating industries for the future); they will

benefit more from reduced and R&D than will other hydrogen
 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 1 9 2 9 4 e1 9 3 1 0 19309

3
HFCV Steam reforming Electrolysis Biohydrogen

HFCV Steam reforming Electrolysis Biohydrogen

GDP Deflator
Real GDP
2.23
2.76
3.06
2.75
2.24
1.57
0.82

2.92
3.41
3.71
3.38
2.83
2.12
1.36
2

0
3.41
4.10
4.52
4.08
3.35
2.39
1.32

4.28
4.99
5.49
5.08
4.33
3.32
2.20
% -1

-2

-3

-4
3.41
4.11
4.51
4.09
3.39
2.46
1.42

4.26
4.98
5.46
5.07
4.36
3.38
2.29
-5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year
Fig. 2 e Results of real GDP and average price index for
5.59
7.69
9.43
10.85
11.97
12.86
13.58
1.44
1.26
1.20
1.26
1.33
1.41
1.46

scenario III.
1.72
1.81
1.55
1.13
0.74
0.42
0.20

0.06
1.15
2.67
4.19
5.52
6.64
7.56
HFC

HFC

industries. Hydrogen generation and hydrogen applications

2.62
3.04
3.69
3.23
2.57
1.74
0.85

3.34
3.72
4.40
3.93
3.22
2.35
1.42
HFS

HFS

can provide renewable clean energy to generate electricity.

Table 13 e Results of Scenario IV for GDP growth rate, GDP deflator and production of industries. Unit: %.

Biological methods of production can help to achieve zero-

Natural gas Other mineral

Natural gas Other mineral

emissions. This study establishes the importance of consid-

ering electricity supply in determining the cost of mitigating
7.95
6.75
5.97
5.25
4.62
4.02
3.45

7.37
6.37
5.69
5.03
4.45
3.89
3.34

CO2 emissions. Considerations of economic growth and nu-

clear safety must be balanced. Investing in the green economy
and low-carbon technologies may lead to a new path for
economic growth in Japan, and also in other countries; sup-
port the development of new industries and changes to the
16.60
17.70
6.15
6.88
6.68
6.34
5.97

18.37
18.89
7.16
7.52
7.10
6.59
6.09

industrial structure of nations, and also create new green jobs,

benefiting the economies and societies of all nations.
Baseline results reveal that the positive impacts on hydrogen
11.88
9.66
8.75
7.75
6.95
6.26
5.65

11.97
9.71
8.78
7.77
6.96
6.27
5.65
Oil

Oil

application sectors (HFCV, HFC and HFS) are greater than

hydrogen generation sectors (biohydrogen, steam reforming
13.39
11.75
10.62
9.25
8.11
7.19
6.45

13.38
11.75
10.64
9.27
8.13
7.21
6.46
CO2 emission goal for COP 19 (3.6%) GDP deflator Real GDP Coal

CO2 emission goal for COP 19 (3.6%) GDP deflator Real GDP Coal

and electrolysis). Sensitivity analysis reveals that HFCV, HFC and

biohydrogen are the three industries that are most sensitive to
technology advance. Hydrogen-related industries will play a
0.07
0.04
0.07
0.16
0.24
0.34
0.45

0.29
0.12
0.04
0.08
0.19
0.31
0.43

more important role if Japan shut down nuclear power plants or

to meet the CO2 mitigation target in response to the conclusions
of COP 19. Developed countries are facing a heavy burden in
mitigating CO2 emissions. Biohydrogen has the potential grad-
1.23
1.12
1.09
1.01
0.92
0.82
0.71

1.45
1.28
1.20
1.08
0.97
0.85
0.73

ually to become a major hydrogen-generating technology for

future development of green economy.
The results in this investigation may serve as references
for developed and developing countries as they seek to meet
their global responsibility to mitigate CO2 emissions. Finally,
as discussed above, biohydrogen has the potential gradually
to become a major hydrogen-generating technology.
(Strong support, 20%)

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