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  • Jäckle Et Al.

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    Amber van den Meiracker
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    The document analyzes the causes behind attacks on refugees in Germany in 2015. It tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties and contagion effects play a role. The findings suggest attacks were more likely in districts where right-wing parties were stronger and that a contagion effect occurred, with attacks more likely in areas close to recent attacks. The analysis used socioeconomic and political data at the district level to model these relationships while remaining close to individual levels. It found the strength of right-wing parties considerably increased the probability of attacks, and attacks were more prevalent due to behavioral contagion effects.

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    Jäckle et al.

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    The document analyzes the causes behind attacks on refugees in Germany in 2015. It tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties and contagion effects play a role. The findings suggest attacks were more likely in districts where right-wing parties were stronger and that a contagion effect occurred, with attacks more likely in areas close to recent attacks. The analysis used socioeconomic and political data at the district level to model these relationships while remaining close to individual levels. It found the strength of right-wing parties considerably increased the probability of attacks, and attacks were more prevalent due to behavioral contagion effects.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    12 vues1 page

    Jäckle Et Al.

    Transféré par

    Amber van den Meiracker
    The document analyzes the causes behind attacks on refugees in Germany in 2015. It tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties and contagion effects play a role. The findings suggest attacks were more likely in districts where right-wing parties were stronger and that a contagion effect occurred, with attacks more likely in areas close to recent attacks. The analysis used socioeconomic and political data at the district level to model these relationships while remaining close to individual levels. It found the strength of right-wing parties considerably increased the probability of attacks, and attacks were more prevalent due to behavioral contagion effects.

    Droits d'auteur :

    © All Rights Reserved
    Téléchargez comme DOCX, PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
    Signaler comme contenu inapproprié
    sur 1

    The Dark Side of the German Welcome Culture: Investigating the Causes Behind Attacks on Refugees

    in 2015

    Sebastian Jäckle and Pascal D. König

    Problem: In 2015, Germany experienced a record high influx of refugees and received international
    praise for its welcome culture. At the same time, however, attacks on refugees rose to an alarming
    level.

    Goal of the article: The analysis first tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties
    plays a role and, second, it models a contagion effect, taking into account spatial as well as temporal
    proximity.

    Conclusion: The findings suggest that the strength of right-wing parties in a district considerably
    boosts the probability of attacks on refugees in that area. They also corroborate the idea of
    behavioural contagion. The set of social-structural variables employed as controls yielded only
    limited explanatory power.

    The attacks are more prevalent in the East side of Germany and a larger number of refugees does
    lead to more disappointing attitudes. However, the East side of Germany can be explained by social-
    structural factors and living with foreigners decreases disappointing attitudes.

    First, the political context matters. Second, a considerable part of the explanation for these attacks
    seems to consist of a dangerous dynamic of behavioural contagion.

    Hypotheses:

    H1: The stronger extreme right parties are in a given context, the more likely are violent acts
    against refugees.

    H2: The closer a recent attack on refugees in terms of spatial distance, the more likely are
    violent acts against refugees.

    Research: Using detailed socioeconomic and political data while modelling a hierarchical data
    structure. Our analysis is located on the contextual level and uses aggregated data while still trying to
    remain as close as possible to the micro level. The dataset employed in the analysis contains cases
    for every day of 2015 and each of the 402 German administrative districts.

    Mechanisms influencing the relationship between political attitudes and immigration welcoming:
    Right parties and contagion effect.

    Right parties: Propaganda by extreme right-wing parties is likely to present foreigners and even
    refugees as enemies, to evoke feelings of hatred and more or less implicitly establish them as
    legitimate targets of violent action. Moreover, if those parties manage to shape public opinion they
    may contribute to an overall political and social climate that is more conducive to violence against
    foreigners.
    Right parties
    Contagion effect: This notion of a contagion
    The relationship between
    dynamic is very much in line with our focus on political attitudes and
    contextual variables significant explanatory immigration welcoming
    power might stem from the simple relationship Contagion effect
    that people who live in an environment in which
    political violence against refugees is more common may have a greater disposition to commit such
    acts as well.

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