British Columbia

Voter Intention Numbers

BC Liberal Leadership Numbers
22nd January 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on
results of three surveys. The first survey was
conducted between January 4th to 6th, 2018
among a sample of 817 adults, 18 years of age
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The second was conducted on January 7th
2018 among a sample of 340 past financial
donors to the Conservative Party of Canada
and the Liberal Party of Canada and screened
for membership in the BC Liberal Party
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.24% %. For the second survery, the margin of
error is +/- 4.57%. Both margins are accurate
19 times out of 20 in all cases.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
HORGAN NDP LEAD OVER BC LIBERALS, BC LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE HEADED FOR MULTIPLE
BALLOTS

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Premier John Horgan enjoys a comfortable lead over the BC Liberals
and Greens, a new Mainstreet Research report finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 817 residents of British Columbia
aged 18 and over between January 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.24% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Horgan government are in a strong position starting the new year,” said Quito Maggi, President
and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Last year’s election saw the NDP and the BC Liberals in a dead
heat in terms of the popular vote, but at the beginning of 2018, the NDP have opened up nearly a 5%
lead over the opposition Liberals.”

The new NDP government in BC led by John Horgan has 38.5% support, while the opposition BC
Liberals enjoys nearly 34% support. The Green Party, who have a confidence and supply agreement
with the governing NDP, have 27.6% support.

The NDP lead is most significant among women with a nine point lead, young voters under 35 (eleven
points) and in Greater Vancouver (fifteen points). Nonetheless, the NDP have continued weakness in
the interior where they sit in third place.

“The Green Party led by Andrew Weaver continues to enjoy increased support and have the support
of almost three in ten British Columbia voters,” continued Maggi. “These gains come largely from
increases in the interior where they have replaced the NDP as the alternative to the BC Liberals.”

“The BC Liberals of course have other things on their mind, namely selecting a new leader to replace
past leader and Premier Christy Clark,” Maggi concluded.

In a separate survey, former MP Dianne Watts leads the BC Liberal leadership race among decided
voters with nearly 30%, with Andrew Wilkinson at 21.3% and Todd Stone at nearly 20%.

“The BC Liberal race appears to be one that will be hard to call, with many strong candidates in the
field’, said Maggi. “While we do not have a complete membership list, we think that this leadership
race will see a multi-ballot scenario determining the winner.”

The BC Liberal leadership survey used past federal and provincial donors as a frame and screened
for membership of the BC Liberal Party. Based on the estimated BC Liberal membership totals, the
margin of error for the leadership poll is +/- 5.3% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)
If the BC Liberal leadership election were held today, which
candidate would you support?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

(decided and leaning voters)

 BC Liberal Leadership - Voting Intention
(all voters - unweighted)

(all voters - weighted)

(leaning voters with true undecideds - weighted)

(decided and leaning voters - weighted)

 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held And which candidate are you leaning
today, which party would you vote towards? (only asked of respondents
for? who were undecided in previous
British Columbia New Democratic question)
Party led by John Horgan Mike de Jong
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Michael Lee
Rich Coleman Todd Stone
Green Party of British Columbia led by Sam Sullivan
Andrew Weaver Dianne Watts
Undecided Andrew Wilkinson
Undecided
And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents What is your gender?
who were undecided in previous Male
question) Female
British Columbia New Democratic
Party led by John Horgan What is your age group?
British Columbia Liberal Party led by 18 to 34 years of age
Rich Coleman 35 to 49 years of age
Green Party of British Columbia led by 50 to 64 years of age
Andrew Weaver 65 years of age or older
Undecided

[BC LIBERAL PARTY MEMBERS]

If the BC Liberal Party leadership
election were held today, which
candidate would you support?
Mike de Jong
Michael Lee
Todd Stone
Sam Sullivan
Dianne Watts
Andrew Wilkinson
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of two surveys. The first was conducted between January 3rd,
2018 and January 6th, 2018, among a sample of 817 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the province of
British Columbia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews
on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of British
Columbia. The second was conducted on January 7th 2018 among a sample of 340 past financial donors to
the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada. This survey is intended to represent the
membership of the British Columbia Liberal Party.

Both surveys were conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame for the first survey was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory
was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country
they resided in. In each case, respondents were dialed at random.

The sample frame for the second survey was derived from publicly available data of federal donors. A list of
Conservative Party and Liberal Party donors that reside in British Columbia data was compiled and called
randomly. The respondents were screened for membership of the British Columbia Liberal Party.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. In the case of
the first survey, the calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making
contact with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the second survey except the
survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.ca.
Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a
descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample of the first survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and region.
The sample of the second survey was weighted by the percentage of ridings in each region in order to mirror
the weighted one-member-one-vote electoral method used by the British Columbia Liberal Party to select
their leader. No further weighting was applied due to the fact that age, gender, and regional distribution of the
BC Liberal Party membership is not publicly known.

The margin of error for the first poll is +/- 3.24% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in
each subsamples. A precise margin of error for the second poll cannot be calculated as the exact BC Liberal
membership total is unknown. It is currently estimated at 60,000, which would place the margin of error for
the second poll at +/- 5.3% at the 95% confidence level.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.4%, Females: +/- 4.8%, 18-34 age group: +/-
8.14%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.11%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.27%, 65+ age group: +/- 5.37%, Greater Vancouver:
+/- 5.91%, Vancouver Island: +/- 5.49%, Rest of British Columbia: +/- 5.49%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties
in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample
surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and
measurement error.