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Quebec

Voter Intention Numbers
23rd January 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of three surveys. The survey was conducted three levels of government, President and CEO
between January 4th to 6th, 2018 among a Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
sample of 965 adults, 18 years of age or older, international public affairs.
living in Quebec. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various sources and federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
random digit dialing. The part of the survey predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
that dialed from the directory was conducted elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
as a stratified dial of the following regions; special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
the Montreal CMA, Quebec City CMA, and the a member of the World Association for Public
rest of Quebec. In the case of random digit Opinion Research and meets international and
dials, respondents were asked the additional Canadian publication standards.
question of what region of the province they
resided in. CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Quito Maggi, President
Research and was not sponsored by a third quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
party.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
3.15% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:
report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PLQ AND CAQ IN DEAD HEAT

23 January 2018 (Montreal, QC) - The governing Liberals and the Coalition Avenir Quebec are in a
virtual tie heading into an election in October, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 965 residents of Quebec aged 18
and over between January 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.15% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“The race to lead the Quebec Government in 2018 has been the one to watch for some time with the
governing Liberals and CAQ neck and neck for most of 2017”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO
of Mainstreet Research. “The CAQ and the PLQ are exchanging the lead several times, but neither
able to extend that lead beyond the margin of error where it might be conclusive.

The Mainstreet poll sees the CAQ enjoying nearly 32% support among Quebecers, while the governing
Liberals have just over 31% support. The Parti Quebecois has 18.3% support, while the Quebec Solidaire
has 14.6% support.

Maggi points out that the regional differences between the parties is worth noting and points to how
they might hurt the Liberals’ re-election prospects.

“Again, the story in Quebec is in the regions where the Liberals lead by almost twelve points in
greater Montreal, trail the CAQ by five points in Quebec City and struggle in third place outside the
urban centres where the CAQ enjoys a twenty point lead”, he said.

“The Liberals simply have to do better outside of Montreal if they are to win in October”.

The poll finds that while Quebec Solidaire continues to struggle, there are highlights among women,
where they have 17% support, and especially among younger Quebecers (31% support).

Maggi also commented on the chances of smaller parties in Quebec.

“The Quebec Conservatives and others continue to have a difficult time finding oxygen. That may get
even rarer with the entry of the Quebec NDP who choose a leader shortly.”

Maggi concluded by stating that he expects a lot of volatility in public support in Quebec leading up
to the election.

“With a budget, a summer break and a campaign still ahead, there is of course still plenty of time for
a lot of movement. We will be keeping a close eye on Quebec as the election nears”.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)
And if you had to choose, which party leader
do you think is more truthful?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

(decided and leaning voters)

And if you had to choose, which party leader do you think is more truthful?
QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held And if you had to choose, which party
today, which party would you vote leader do you think is more truthful?
for? Philippe Couillard of the Quebec
Quebec Liberal Party led by Philippe Liberal Party
Couillard Jean-François Lisée of the Parti
Parti Quebecois led by Jean-François Quebecois
Lisée François Legault of the Coalition
Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Avenir Quebec
François Legault Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-
Québec solidaire led by Manon Massé Dubois of the Québec solidaire
and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
Another Party What is your gender?
Undecided Male
Female
And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents What is your age group?
who were undecided in previous 18 to 34 years of age
question) 35 to 49 years of age
Quebec Liberal Party led by Philippe 50 to 64 years of age
Couillard 65 years of age or older
Parti Quebecois led by Jean-François
Lisée
Coalition Avenir Quebec led by
François Legault
Québec solidaire led by Manon Massé
and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
Another Party
Undecided
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 3rd,
2018 and January 5th, 2018, among a sample of 965 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of the province of Quebec.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialling. The part of the survey
that dialed the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three different regions of
Quebec: the Montreal CMA, Quebec City CMA, and the rest of Quebec. In the case of the
random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region they
resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Quebec. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region by language.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.15% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.