should trip a nmachine or sound ani alarm is justify loading another duty on the oper- If the slhell temiiperature
emiiperature increases to the
not easy to answer. To me it does not
appear to be a matter of maxinmum im-
portance. At times, a machine should be
tripped immediately upon field failure, and
at times an alarm would be adequate. The
total number of machine trips from this
cause in the life of a machine in cases where
the sounding of an alarm would be adequate
is extremely small, too small, in fact, to
Estimating Kw Demand ror Future Loads
on Rural Distri6ution Systems
STANLEY J. VEST
ASSOCIATE MEMBER AIEE
SINCE 1939 REA (Rural Electrifica-
tion Administration) distribution bor-
rowers have been estimating the capacity
needed for future loads on the basis of
curves relating kw demand to the number
of consumers and the average kw-hr
(kilowatt-hour) usage. This method has
proved reliable and the curves have been
revised when necessary because of chang-
ing conditions. Prior to the l)resent re-
vision the values desired were read from a
family of curves or from tables made up
from these curves. A method has now
been developed for determining kw de-
mand by the multiplication of two factors
corresponding to the number of consumers
and kw-hr usage. These factors may be
read from tables or determined math-
ematically. This paper outlines the
history of the demand curves, the tech-
niques used in preparing the latest re-
vision, and the manner in which the curves
and factor tables are used.
History
The first kw-demand curves used by
REA distribution borrowers were pre-
pared in 1939 for a maximum of 2,000
consumers and 120 kw-hr/mo/con-
sumer (kw-hr per month per consumer).
They were revised in 1945 to provide for
5,000 consumers and 500 kw-hr/mo/
consumer, and again in 1949 for 10,000
consumers and 1,000 kw-hr/mo/con-
Paper 57-600, recommended by the AIEEE System
Engineering Committee and approved by the
AIEE Technical Operations Department for
presentation at the ATEE Great Lakes District
Meeting, Des Moines, Iowa, April 15-17, 1957.
Manuscript submitted December 20, 1956; made
available for printing February 18, 1957.
STANLEY J. VEST is with the Rural Electrification
Administration, Washington, D. C.
652 5Iest-Estimating Kw Demand for Rural Distribution Systems
ator. We have not had an operation of
these relays to trip the machine following
field failure.
It is true that there is no protection
against machine motoring as such. In an
attempt to protect against damage in as
direct a method as possible there are two
thermostats which sense shell temperatures.
The first one to operate sounds an alarm.
sumer. As a result of numerous requests
for demand informnation corresponding
to consumptions above 1,000 kw-hr/
mo/consumer, curves were prepared in
1955, based on 1949 information, extend-
ing the previous curves to 2,000 kw-hr/
mo/consumer. These curves were used
only as an interim measure until current
information could be assembled and new
curves prepared.
Basic Information
The information used in preparing the
revised curves and factor tables, except
for the smaller numbers of consumers (less
than 50), was taken from operating re-
ports and power bills furnished by REA
borrowers. A 255% sample was taken,
representing as far as possible 25% of
those in each state. One substation was
selected from each system avoiding those
with unusual loads, such as army installa-
tions, large industrial plants, and seasonal
cottages. In several cases it was neces-
sary to discard a sample because of un-
usual conditions which were not represen-
tative of a rural system, resulting in a
reduction of the sample to approximately
23%.
To avoid irregularities in meter-reading
times, the 4-month peak demand period
(4 consecutive months) was selected for
determining monthly usage and demand.
The values used in preparing the curves
were the average monthly usage and the
average monthly demand during this 4-
month peak period of maximum demand.
Therefore, the kw-demand data are those
which may be expected for any particular
monthly usage. To obtain the maximum
yearly demand, the maximum monthly
usage rather than the average usage
setting of the second thermostat the
generator is tripped.
Our experience with the oscillographs
and highi-speed chart recorders has been
such that we are installing similar types of
equipmenit on subsequent machines. They
have proved very valuable in trouble
analysis. The instrumentation of our newer
units is inuch the same as that described.
should be applied in reading the factor
tables prepared from the curves. The
kw-hr values used are based on kw-hr
sold at the consumer's meter, making it
unnecessary to correct for losses.
Information available in REA for small
numbers of consumers could not be used,
since it was found that substations with
only a few consumers were those with
unusual loads and not representative of a
typical rural area. The data in this range
were obtained from a studv made on 42
farms by the Agricultural Experiment
Station, Iowa State College, and the Farm
Electrification Section, Agricultural Re-
search Service, U. S. Department of Agri-
culture.,
Method of Plotting Data
The data were plotted as kw-hr/mo/
kw versus consumers, the ordinate being
a measure of diversity. A notation was
made at each point indicating the area
from which it was taken. The peak
month and density were also noted on a
separate sheet. An examination of the
points showed no noticeable difference
because of area or density. However, a
spot check indicated that about three
fourths of the summer peaking systems
will have a lower demand than the average
and one fourth higher than average.
From p)ast experience and by inspection
it could be seen that the plot of kw-hr/
mo/kw versus consumers would be a
family of curves, each curve representing
a particular value of kw-hr/mo/con-
sumer. Knowing this to be true, one
curve would have been sufficient, but to
prove the point three curves were plotted.
Because of the lack of sufficient points to
plot specific values ot usage, curves were
plotted for three ranges: 100 to 200, 201 to
400, and 401 to 600 kw-hr/mo/con-
sumer.
Fig. I shows the spread of points for
401 to (600 kw-hr/mo/consumer. A
curve was drawn through these points by
the method of moving averages. The
original curve was carried to 10,000 con
sumers but, as a matter of convenience,
Fig. 1 has not been reproduced beyond
AUGUST 1957
2,000 consumers since the curve continues
in a straight line. 380 _
In Fig. 2 this same curve has been 40-- . - _ - - -- _ ___-
reproduced with the other two curves, 360
mentioned in the foregoing for compara- 340C- _ c .-401-600 KWH MoS onsumer-C
tive purposes. Note that the three 320 -
curves have the same shape and level off
at approximately 1,400 consumers. Any 300..
point on either curve may now be identi- 3280 ------I
fied as a given percentage of the maximum
kw-hr/mo/kw for that curve. For ax240.
260
example, using a given number of con-
sumers, a point which is 50%,0 below the ¢ 22a0 L_ - I -
maximum on one curve will be 30% be- 20
low the maximum for any curve in the
family.
To find the maximum for any curve in 16
the family, it was necessary to find some 140
relationship between the maximum values
for the three curves plotted. The three
points appeared to fonn a straight line a0O4Q 0 )-
600 --80 IMO 1400 1600 i6 ! 00
on log-log paper, but more points were CONSUMERS
needed to verify this assumption. This Fig. 1. Kw-hr/mo/kw versus consumers
was accomplished by making a plot of 380
kw-hr/mo/kw versus kw-hr/mo/con-
~~~~~~~I lI
- - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

sumer for all points above 1,400 con- - ~~~~~~~~

360360L ------- 401-600L KWH/Mo/Consumer
l l -
sumers (Fig. 3) since the effect of the
third variable, consumers, is constant in
34 L I
-007-
0|
|
i
||
201-400
I I I
KWH/Mo/Consumer _
that range as shown by the curves in 320F1 -
Fig. 2. A curve drawn through these 300 - IO 200OKWHt'Mo/Cons5umSr
points by the method of moving averages 280 .--
verified the previous assumption that the 260
plot would form a straight line on log-log 240 1
paper. This straight-line curve was also
in agreement with a straight line drawn x22C -
through the three points of maximum C2200
value found in Fig. 2.
1180 -- -

160--.
Calculation of Kw Demand
140 --
The following equation was derived for 120 --
calculating demand from the information 100--
available from the curves
so
kw-hr X kw 200 400 600 800 100 1200 14001T60 Ts0 2000
kw=' CONSUMERS
kw-hr
Dividing numerator and denominator by F'ig. 2. Kw-hrfmo/kw versus consumers
kw gives I000
kw-hr
kw =
kw-hr/kw
where
kw-hr = kw-hr/mo/consumer X consumers
kw-hr/mo/consumer Xconsumers 0
5400
kw
maximum kw-hr/mo/kw X per cent of
maximum
~300 I

-kw-hr/mo/consumer consumers 200

kw=
maximum kw-hr/mo/kw per cent of
maximum
The first term has been designated as
kw-hr factor or factor B and the second
1001DV a
1VU
I 1.
200 300 I500 l 1000 1 11
2000 3000
term as consumer factor or factor A. KWH/ Mo/Consumer
After determining factor A (Table I) for Fig. 3. Kw-hr/mo/kw versus kw-hr/mo/consumer, For 1,400 consumers or more

AUGUST 1 957 Vest-Estimating Kw Demand for Rural Distribution Systems 653

 Table 1. Consumer Factor, Factor A problems for solution by electronic com-
puters, the following may be used
No. Con- Factor No. Con- Factor No. Con- Factor No. Con- Factor No. Con- Factor
sumers A sumers A sumers A sumers A sumers A factor A = C[1 -0.4C+0.4( C2+40)1/uI
41..... 53.4 105 . 122 310 . 325 820..... 832
where
42 .... 54.5 110 . 128 320 . 335 840 .. 853
43 .... 55.5 115 . 133 330 . 344 860.... 873 C= number of consumers
44 .... 56.7 120 . 138 340 . 354 880..... 891
5 .. 9.49 45 .... 57.9 125 . 143 350 . 364 900.... 911 This equation is not exact but closely
6.... 10.8 46 ..... 59.0 130 . 148 360 . 373 920..... 931
7 . 12.1 47 .6...60.2 135 . 153 370 . 383 940 ... 951 approximates the curve for factor A.
8.13.5 48 ... 61.4 140 . 159 380... 393 960..... 972 A nomogram, Figs. 5(A) and (B), has
9 . 14.8 49 62.4 145 . 163 390 . 403 980..... 992
10 .. 16.1 50.... 63.5 150 . 168 400 . 412 1,000 ..... 1,010 also been prepared as an added conven-
51..... 64.7
ience. The divisions on the left-hand
11 . 17.4 155 . 173 410 .. 422 1,050. 1, 059
12. 18.7 52 .... 65.7 160 . 178 420 432 1.100. 1,108 scale (in each figure) of the nomogram
13 20.1 53 .... 66.7 165. 183 430 . 442 1,150..... 1,157 represent the log of factor A correspond-
14 . 21.4 54 .... 68.0 170 . 188 440 . 452 1 ,200. 1, 207
15 . 22.7 55 .... 69.0 175 . 193 450 . 462 1,250. 1,255 ing to the number of consumers, the
16. .24.0 56 .... 70.2 180 . 198 460 . 472 1, 300..... 1,304 divisions on the right-hand scale represent
17 25.3 57 71.2 185 . 203 470 . 481 1,350..... 1 ,353
18 . 26.6 58 .... 72.3 190 208 480 . 491 1, 400..... 1,400 the log of factor B corresponding to kw-
19.27.8 59 73.6 195 . 213 490 501 1 ,450..... 1,450
20.29.2 60 .... 74.5 200 . 218 500 . 512 1,500..... 1 .500 hr/mo/consumer and the center scale
62 ..... 7
represents log factor A +log factor B
21 . 30.4 7 205 . 223 510 . 522 1,600. 1 ,600
22. 31.7 64..... 78.9 210 . 228 520 532 2,000.... 2,000 found by placing a straightedge from A to
23 . 32.8 66... 81.1 215 . 233 530 . 542 2,400. 2,400 B. In this way factor A and factor B are
24 ....339 68 83.2 220 . 238 540 . 551 2,800. 2,800
25. 34.9 70 ..... 85.4 225 . 243 550 .. 561 3,200..... 3,200 multiplied by adding their logarithms.
26. 36.0 72 ..... 87.6 230 . 247 560 .... 571 3,600O..... 3,600
27 37. 2... 74 ..... 89.7 235 . 252 570 . 582 4,000..... 4,000
28 . 38.9
29. 39.5
76..... 91.8
78 93.9
240 . 257
245 . 262
580 592
590 . 601
4,400..... 4,400 Adjustment for Difference in
4,800..... 4,800 Load Factor
30 .40.7 ..80... 96;.0 250 . 267 600 . 612 5,200..... 5,200
31 4.41.9 82 ..... 98.3 255 272 620 .. 631 5,500 . .. 5,500
32... 43.1 84 ..... 100 260 . 276 640 6.652 6,000 ..... 6,000 The demand curves and factor tables
33. ....44.3 86 ..... 102 265 . 282 66X;0
.. ,72 6,500 ..... 6,500 are based on the average system, and some
34.... .45.4 88 ..... 104 270 . 287 680 ..... 692 7,000 ..... 7,000
35 ..... 46.6 90 ..... 107 275 . 291 700 .. 713 7,500..... 7,500 systems will deviate from the average be-
36i .47.7 92..... 109 280 . 296 720 . 733 8,000 ..... 8,000 cause of load factor. If the load factor
37.. 48.9 94.....111 285 . 301 740 .. 753 8,500 ..... 8,500
385...50.0 96 ..... 113 290 . 306 760 .... 772 9,000 ..... 9,000 and diversity are expected to continue
39 .51.2 .2 98 ..... 115 295 . 310 780 793 9,500..... 9,500
40.... 52.3 100 ..... 117 300 . 315 800 . 812 10,000.....10,000 to bear the same relationship to the aver-
age, the information may be easily
adapted to the particular system. Two
methods of doing this and comparisons
Table II. Kw-Hr Factor, Factor B of kw demand found by each method for
all numbers of consumers and factor B
(Table II) for all values of kw-hr, the kw 5,000 consumers are shown in the follow-
Kw-Hr/Mo/ demand for any consumer density and ing, where the present values are 254 kw,
Kw-Hr/Mo/
Consumer Factor B Consumer Factor B 500 consumers, and 200 kw-hr/mo/
usage may then be calculated by multi-
plying the two corresponding factors. consumer; and the multiplying factor or
50. 0. 189 420 .. 1.24 shift in factor B curve required for the
55 . 0.203 Factor A reflects the improved diversity
440 .. 1.29 same area with a usage of 600 kw-hr/
60 . 0.220 460 .. 1.34 resulting from an increase in the number mo/consumer is to be found.
65. 0. 237 480 .. 1.40 of consumers. Factor B reflects the im-
70 . 0.254 500 ... 1 .45
75 . 0.2 70 525 .. 1.51 provement in load factor with increased Method 1. For 500 consumers and
80. 02'86 550 .. 1.58
usage, and is the kw demand per consumer 200 kw-hr/mo/consumer, the load factor
85 .. 0.301 575 ..... 1f64
90.. 0.317 600 .. 1.70 to be expected on an average substation from the factor tables equals
95.. 0333 625 .. 1.77
100.. 0.348 650 .. l1 .83 having maximum diversity (more than consumers X kw-hr/mo/consumer
110.. 0.379 675 .. 1.90 1,400 consumers).
120 .. 0 .409 700 .. 1.96 kw X hours
130 .. 0.439 725 ... 2 .02 Kw demands may be calculated for 500(200) =41.8%
140 ..
150..
0.468
0.497
750 2.08
775 .. 2.14 usages higher than the 2,000 kw-hr/mo/ =-500(-00)
328(730)
160 .. 0.525 800 .. 2.20 consumer, shown in the factor B table, by
170.. 0.554 825 ... 2.26 The actual load factor equals
180.. 0.583 850 .. 2.32 plotting and extending the curve for
190.. 0. 612 875 .. 2.38 factor B which is a straight line on log-log
200. 0.641 900 ... 2.44 consumers X kw-hr/mo/consumer
210 0.669 925 .. 2.50 paper as shown in Fig. 4. This factor kw X hours
220. 0. 697 950 .. 2.56 may also be calculated for any usage
230. 0.726 975 2.62 500(200)
240. 0.755 1,000 .. 2.68 value by using the equation of the line 254(730)
250 . 0.784 1,100 .. 2.92 shown in Fig. 4.
260 . 0.810 1,200 3.15
270 . 0.836 1,300 .. 3.39 Multiplying factor=41.8/54.0 =0.775
280.. 0.864 1,400 .. 3.62 factor B = 0.005925 (kw-hr/mo/con-
290 .. 0.893 1,500 .. 3. 84 sumer)0°886 or
300.. 0. 923 1,600 .. 4.07
320.. 0.972 1,700 .. 4.29 254/328 = 0.775
340 1.03 1,800 .. 4.51 Since factor A is equal to the number of
360 .. .08 1,900 .. 4.73 consumers beyond 1,400 consumers, an Method 2. Consumer factor (factor A)
380.. 1.14 2,000 .. 4.95
400 ... 1.19 equation for this curve would not or- does not change but kw-hr usage factor
Note: The data may be plotted as a straight line
dinarily be needed. In special instances, (factor B) changes with load factor.
on log-log paper. however, such as in the programming of Therefore, adjustment may be made by

654 Vest Estimating Kw Demand for Rural Distribution Systems AUGUST 1 957
 a
6
%A
XF 7-

c
.4 _ l l--L 4 5
0
U .3 - ____,
- - -

IL
CONSUMERS
.2 Fig. 4 (left). Kw-hr Factor, Factor B
Fig. 5 (below). Nomogram for kw demand
A-5 to 140 consumers B-140 to 10,000 consumers
50 100 200 400 1000 2000 30i)00 Fig. 6 (above). Kw-hr/mo/kw versus consumers, for 50 kw-hr/mo/
KWH/Mo/Consumer consumer.

N 0. DEMAN D KWH/MO NO. DEMAND KWH/MO are compared in Fig. 6 with the new
CONSUM ERS IN KW /CONSUMER CONSUMERS IN KW /CONSUMER curve for the same usage value. Fifty
140 1200 10,000 100,000
kw-hr/mo/consumer has been used as a
.1000 ..3000
100 -700 8000 60,000 basis for comparison since the 1939
t 2400 3000
80+ -500 t 2000 6000 40,000 2400 curve was based on this usage. From
30,000
601 t300 1600 5000
20,000
2000 1949 to 1955 the maximum kw-lir/mo/kw
200 1200 4000 15,000 1600 shows very little change. This indicates
40 1000 3200 10,000 1200 that the addition of new uses for electric-
30 7000 1000 ity should not appreciably affect estimates
t70 2400 made on the basis of present information.
600 2000
5000
800
20 -50
3000 600
16+ 30 t 400
1600 Conversion Equations
2000 500
12 20
t 300 1200 1400 400
000 1000 Those who wish to relate infor-
8t 10
200 800 700
300
250 mation in the factor tables to coin-
7
6"
St 5 150 600
500
200 cidence factor, diversity factor and
300 average undiversified individual consumer
t3
500
150
100 400
200 125 demand may do so by use of the following
2 150
-1.5 75 320t 100
100 A
factor A
380t 80 coincidence factor= -
240 75 3.29 Xconsumers
5a 60
200j 40 3.29 X(consumers
1601 32 s50 diversity factor- -
140 26 factor A

(B) average kw/consumer (undiversified)=

3.29 Xfactor B
where
drawing a factor B curve for the particular factor, the corrected demand equals
system parallel to the average curve. 3.29 =factor A for one consumer
8,500 kwXO.775=6,600 kw
For 500 consumers
Kw Demand by Method 2. The new Conclusions
factor A =512 as mentioned in the
factor B curve drawn
kw
kw 254 foregoing shows this factor to be 1.32 for Substation demand is related to the
factor B= 0.496 600 kw-hr/mo/consumer. For 5,000 number of consumers and the average
factor A 512
consumers kw-hr usage. Demand curves and
A straight line through the point for kw- factor tables, prepared on the basis of
factor A 5,000
=
present information, provide a convenient
hr/mo/consumer 200 and factor B =
=

factor A Xfactor B 5,000 X 1.32 6,600 kw

= =

0. 496, drawn parallel to the average curve,
is the factor B curve for this system.
Kw Demand by Method 1. For 600
kw-hr/mo/consumer and 5,000 con-
surmers the factor tables show a demand
of 8,500 kw. Applying the multiplying
Comparison of Demand Curves
1939 to 1955
The cuirves prepared in 1939 and 1949
plotting kw-hr/mo/kw versus consumers
means for predicting future kw demands.
Reference
1. LOAD) CHARACTERISTICS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA FARMS USING ELECTRIC RANGES, Landy B.
Altman, Jr., Emil H. Jebe. Research Bulletin 420,
Iowa Stete College, Ames, Iowa, Jan. 1955.

AUGUST 1957 Vest-Estimating Kw Demand for Rural Distribution Systems n L

5