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time pLanning
Lecture-2 As we discussed in the previous chapter,
chapter two - time pLanning Time planning may have the following
project work Breakdown process.
activity duration estimation activity definition (using WBS)
scheduLing duration estimation
project network anaLysis (modeLing) (cpm,
pert & pna) schedule development (sequencing, Net working
etc.) and
controlling.
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The project work-breakdown process involves breaking Residential Buildings Service Buildings Recreation Centers
down of the project work into manageable parts arranged Sub projects
in a hierarchical order till the desired level is reached. Educational Buildings Health Centre Shopping centre
the project. Any work not in the WBS is outside the scope Base construction Footing Con Plinth wall Con Ground floor Con Work package
of the project. (Eg…)
It is used to develop or confirm a common understanding Earth work Base preparation Blinding
Activity Duration
Project work Breakdown …
Duration of an activity is defined as the
Example, Operation involved in concreting are; expected economical transaction time.
Cleaning and preparing inner side of the raft for The estimation of time is based upon the
concreting current practices carried out in an
Pumping concrete organized manner under the normal
Spreading and vibrating concrete prevailing conditions, and its assessment
is done preferably, by the person
Finishing of top concrete surface responsible for its performance.
per unit of resource x resource earmarked] Estimate Activity Resources – estimating the type and quantities of
material, people, equipment, or supplies required to perform each
t=Q/(nXp) activity
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Scheduling Cont…
Scheduling Techniques
Scheduling may also Classified as:
Construction schedule Line-of-Balance
Material schedule bar chart/Gantt charts
Labor schedule Net work diagram
Equipment schedule Critical Path Method (CPM)
Expenditure schedule Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
Eontrol schedule
Precedence diagramming method (PDM)/PNA
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LOB LOB
10
housing, high rise buildings, tunnels, etc. 8
No. of Houses
A typical LOB diagram is shown in the next slide 6
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
TIME
19
20
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1 Simple project/sub
project Bar Chart Bar Chart Bar Chart Bar Chart
(a)Non-repetitive work
(b)Repetitive work LOB LOB LOB LOB/Bar chart Lecture-3
2 Complex sub-projects CPM Time scale Bar Chart
(a)Deterministic Network
(b)Probabilistic PERT CPM >>
>>
3 Complex Projects PNA Bar Chart PNA Bar Chart
(a)Non-repetitive W. PNA LOB LOB Bar Chart/LOB
(b)Repetitive work PERT Time Scale network PERT Bar Chart
(c)Probabilistic
CPM-Critical Path
PERT-Programme Evaluation and Review Techniques BC-Bar Chart
PNA- Precedence Network Analysis TSN-Time Scale Network/Logic Bar Chart
LOB-Line of Balance 23 11/7/2017 Temesgen G. 24
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20 40 60
D E F D E F
Event Timings, Activity Timings and • Latest Finish Time of an activity (i,j) [LFT(i,j)]
Associated Terms –the latest time that an activity needs to be
Start and finish times
• Earliest Start Time of an activity (i,j) [EST(i,j)]
completed in order that there is no delay in the
• This is the earliest that the activity (i,j) can be started, i.e., all the
project completion.
necessary preconditions are met. • Latest Start Time of an activity (i,j) [LST(i,j)]
• Earliest Finish Time of an activity (i,j) [EFT(i,j)]
–the latest time when an activity must be started, in
• This is the earliest that an activity can be completed. Mathematically,
the relationship can be expressed as order that there is no delay in the project
• EFT (i,j)= EST(i,j) + D(i,j) completion.
LST(i,j) = LFT(i,j) – D(i,j)
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EXAMPLE
Task ID Duration Dependency
Network of the example
A 7 C
B 3
A
2 6 3 G
C 6 A 7
3
H
D 3 B A
B D 6 E 7 8
1 4
3
4 2
E 3 D,F 3 3
F
F 2 B 2
G 3 C 5
H 2 E,G
For example, suppose we have two sets of estimate In order to measure the uncertainty
provided by the different estimator for the same associated with the estimate of duration of an
‘design foundation’ activity. activity, the standard deviation (St) and the
In order of (te, tm,tp), let the first set of estimate (14, variance Vt are determined, which in PERT are
18, 28) and the other set of estimates be (17, 18, 25). defined as:
There is large variability in the estimates of first St = (tp-to)/6 and
estimator compared to the second one, even though Vt = (St)2
the expected or average activity duration turns out to The formula for St indicates that it is one sixth
be 19 in both the cases (verify!!!). of the difference between the two extreme
time estimates.
Further, the greater the uncertainty in time estimates, For the two sets of estimate used in ‘design activity’,
the greater the value of (tp-to), and the more spread the St and Vt would be 2.33 days and 5.44 respectively
out will be the distribution curve. for first set of estimates while 1.33 days and 1.77 are
A high St represents a high degree of uncertainty the corresponding values of St and Vt for the second
regarding activity times. In other words there is a set of estimates.
greater chance that the actual time required to The expected length or duration of project Te is
complete the activity will differ significantly from the calculated by summing up the expected duration te’s
expected time te. of activities on the critical path.
The critical path is determined following the In case, there is more than one critical path in a
forward pass and backward pass explained project network, then the path with the largest
earlier. variance is chosen to determine the VT and ST.
The variance associated with the critical path Mathematically,
is the sum of variances associated with the • Te= ∑te
activities on the critical path. • VT = ∑Vt and
• ST= ∑St
Z= (TD- Te)/ ST
Suppose, it is required to compute the probability of
completing the project within a target duration of TD Here Z is the number of standard deviations by which TD exceeds Te. Note
days. that TD might be less than Te, in which case Z is negative. Now the
probability measure the originally sought may be obtained by referring to
Now given the Te of the project it is possible to the following table, extracted from a standard normal table:
calculate the deviation of TD from Te in units of
standard deviation. Z Probability of meeting
Due Date
Z Probability of meeting
Due Date
This is calculated from the normal distribution table. To 3.0 .999 1.0 .841
adopt the table, a ratio called the standardised 2.8 .997 0.8 .788
2.6 .995
deviation or more often the normal deviate, Z, is 2.4 .992
0.6 .726
0.4 .655
derived. Z is defined as the ratio of the difference in TD 2.2 .986
0.2 .579
and Te to ST. Mathematically, Z= (TD- Te)/ ST, 2.0 .977
0.0 .500
1.8 .964
1.6 .945
1.4 .919
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1.2 .885
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Z= (TD- Te)/ ST
Example: PERT Diagram
Z Probability of meeting Z Probability of meeting
Due Date Due Date
-2.0 .023
Now, the problem of computing the probability In other words, the target duration TD is 1.09
of meeting target duration (TD), such as 42 days standard deviations greater than the expected
shown in the figure is quite simple. Since the time TE=36 days.
total area under the normal curve is exactly one, The equivalent probability P(Z=1.09) can be
the cross hatched area under the normal curve read off a normal probability distribution. This
is directly the probability that the actual corresponds to a probability of 0.862
completion time, will be equal to, or less than,
(86.2%)which implies that there is a 86.2%
42 days.
chance that the project will get completed
In this case Z= (TD- TE)/ ST, = (42-36)/ 5.48 =
within 42 days.
1.09 standard deviations.
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36 42 36
36
Time - days Time - days
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Meeting a Target Duration TD Assuming that time now is zero, one may expect this
project to end at time 36 days (corresponding
probability of achieving this target being 50%,
0.55 Standard Deviations verify!!! Hint: TD=36, TE=36 ); and the probability
that it will end on or before the target duration of 42,
P(t 33 days) without expediting the project is approximately
29.1% 86.2%.
On the other hand, if one were to schedule towards
TD= 33 days; herein TD<TE; i.e. Z=-0.55 (Note the
33 36 negative sign); the corresponding probability would
Time - days
be 0.291, which is really a very bleak situation.
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