Volume 3, Issue 1, January – 2018 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456 –2165

Stability Analysis of Tuberculosis Due to Smoking

Nita H. Shah Foram A. Thakkar Bijal M. Yeolekar

Department of Mathematics Department of Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Gujarat University Gujarat University Gujarat University
Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Abstract—In this paper, a mathematical model for the
analysis of tuberculosis due to smoking has been developed
as a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations.
To get cured of this disease a medication is necessary for
the suffering individuals. After taking medications some
people try to adapt the path of giving up smoking and
helps in making society free of smoking. For this, smoking
free equilibrium point and smoking existence equilibrium
point has been found. Basic reproduction number has been
calculated at smoking free equilibrium point which will
give us an approximate idea of an individuals who are
victim of it in our society. Stability analysis has been
carried out at both the equilibrium points. Simulation has
been carried out to support the analytical results.
Keywords—Smoking, Tuberculosis, Basic Reproduction
Number, Medication, Local stability, Global Stability.
I. INTRODUCTION
From the one set of tobacco, since 6000 B.C. smoking has
become a most vital public health hazard all over the world
[15]. Smoking is the only legal consumer product that kills you.
Tobacco is used to make cigarette. Drug called nicotine is
obtained from only the tobacco plant. If this drug is injected
into the blood stream in a very minute amount also, it can kill
human in less than an hour. It is highly poisonous. Smell and
colour of cigarette smoke is because of ‘tar’. It is highly sticky
as it sticks to clothing, inside part of lungs, skin etc. Tar is too
dangerous especially inside lungs. It sticks to the cilia-who are
responsible for the cleanliness of lungs, so they are not able to
clean out germs and dirt because of it and hence leads to lungs
disease. Other than this nicotine and tar are responsible for
many diseases like tuberculosis, lung cancer, throat cancer,
mouth cancer, heart disease etc. are caused by smoking.
Smoking spoils important organs of the body, but the organ
which is badly affected are lungs [8].
Lots of people suffers from tuberculosis only because of
smoking. Individuals must take care of the following principles
for the treatment of disease: treatment must make use of
multiple drugs due to which Mycobacterium Tuberculosis are
susceptible, medication must be taken regularly, the treatment
must be continued until the disease resolves completely. The
aim for TB treatment is to reduce the clinical source of TB,
prevent complications, prevent the development of latenery
recurrences and decrease the transmission of TB, to prevent in
disease progression [9].
Taking medication will help person to stop smoking. Medicines
like nicotine replacement medicine, nicotine chewing gum,
nicotine patch, nicotine spray, nicotine nasal etc. can help
individual to quit smoking [7], [11]. Quit to smoke reduces
health risks. If a person stops to smoke, their health and body
will start to recover. It is very difficult for the individuals who
starts to smoke once. Then gradually it becomes a habit. But
there are individuals who make tremendous choice of quitting
smoking on their own. One must always encourage the smokers
to give up from this rigorous habit. A person can only become
successful in quitting, if he/she gives a beat for cravings and
prompts for it. The reason why the smokers feel tough to quit
and seems they need cigarette for days/week/months but when
tries to quit they feel sick due to the amount of nicotine in their
brain drops. Soon the individuals will quit, faster they will
become healthy [10]Awan et.al.(2017) [2] has developed a
mathematical model entitled “Smoking model with cravings to
smoke” in which they have studied the smoking dynamics in a
population with the effect of powerful cravings for smoking on
temporary quitters.
In this paper, we will analyze the stability for one of the disease
caused due to smoking which is tuberculosis using an
application of SEIR model. Section 2 consists of discussion of
mathematical model, notations with its description and
parametric values. Stability at both the points i.e. smoking free
equilibrium point and smoking existence equilibrium point are
calculated in Section 3. Simulation with their interpretation and
conclusion are discussed in Section 4 and 5 respectively.
II. MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Here, we formulate a mathematical model for the occurrence of
tuberculosis due to smoking using SEIR model. The notations
along with its description and parametric values are given in
below Table1.
Notations Parameters description Parametric
Values
S t  Number of smokers at any 100
instant of time t
TB  t  Number of individuals 40
suffering from tuberculosis at
any instant of time t
M t  Number of individuals going 35
for medication at any instant
of time t

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ISSN No:-2456 –2165

Q t  Number of individuals who 15 which is described by the rate  . Individuals who takes
quits themselves from medication is not necessary that he will be completely cured
smoking at any instant of from the diseases, it happens sometimes that some symptoms
time t still prevail and a person gets affected of tuberculosis again
 New Recruitment 0.15 which is mentioned by the rate  . Also, it happens that a
 Transmission rate of smokers 0.8 person starts smoking while taking of medication due to his/her
who gets affected of habit or once he/ she seems that the disease has started to cure,
tuberculosis this is described by the rate  . Rate  and  is described for
 Rate at which the individuals 0.05 the person who quits smoking after taking medication or
who gets affected of directly on his own without suffering from tuberculosis etc.
tuberculosis again during respectively.Now, from the above figure 1 a set of non-linear
medication differential equations has been constructed as a motion of
 Rate at which the individuals 0.9 smokers from one compartment to another.
goes for medication due to dS
suffering of tuberculosis     STB   M   S   S
 Rate at which the individuals 0.10 dt
dTB
who starts smoking again   STB   M  (   )TB
during medication dt (1)
 Transmission rate of 0.07 dM
individuals who gives up   (1   )TB  (     ) M
dt
smoking after taking dQ
medication   S   TB   Q
 Rate of individuals who 0.15 dt
directly quits smoking on with N  S  TB  M  Q and S  0, TB  0, M  0, Q  0
their own at some instant of
time without moving into In system of equation (1), N  t  is constant so we assume that
any of the compartments
 Mortality Rate 0.35 S  t   TB  t   M  t   Q  t   1 . Also, as the variable Q does
not appear in any of the first three equations from the set of
equations (1) we consider the following subsystem of
Table 1: Notations and its Prametric Values equations

Let N  t  denotes the sample size of total human population at dS

    STB   M   S   S
any instant of time t . Here, N  t  is divided into four dt
compartments S  t  , TB  t  , M  t  and Q  t  which are dTB
  STB   M  (   )TB (2)
dt
individually described in above Table1. Thus,
dM
N  t   S  t   TB t   M t   Q t  . The transmission diagram   (1   )TB  (     ) M
dt
for the proposed problem is shown in figure 1. On adding the above set of equations (2) we get
d
(S  TB  M )     (S  TB  M )   S  TB  0
dt

This, gives limsup( S  TB  M ) 
t   
So, the feasible region for (2) is
  
   S , TB , M  : S  TB  M  , S  0, TB  0, M  0 
    
Thus, smoking free equilibrium of system (2) is
  
E0   , 0, 0  .
   
Now, we are interested in calculating the basic reproduction
number which is to be calculated using next generation matrix
Fig. 1. Motion of Smokers from one Compartment to Other method [3], [4], [5], [14]. The next generation matrix method
is defined as FV 1 where F and V both are Jacobian matrices
Persons who smoke  S  for long time get affected of of  and v evaluated with respect to the individuals suffering
tuberculosis TB  at some stage at the rate  . Then he/she has
to go for medication as precaution to get cure of this diseases

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ISSN No:-2456 –2165

from tuberculosis TB  and the one going for medication III. STABILIY ANALYSIS

 M  at the point E0 .
In this section, the local and global stability at E0 and E * using
Let X  (TB , M , S )
the linearization method and matrix analysis are to be studied.
dX A. Local Stability
  ( X )  v( X )
dt 
Theorem 3.1.1: (stability of E0 ) If R0  1 and R0 
where ( X ) denotes the rate of new smokers and v( X )  
denotes the rate of transfer of smoking which is given as then the smoking free equilibrium point E0 is locally
asymptotically stable.
  STB   (   )TB   M  Proof: At point E0 , the Jacobian matrix of the system (2) is
   
( X )   0  and v( X )   (   ) M   (1   )TB   M    
 0      STB   M      S          

 
Now, the derivative of  and v at smoking free equilibrium   
J ( E0 )   0  (   )  
point E0 gives matrices F and V of order 3  3 defined as

 
  ( E )   v ( E )   0  (1   ) (     ) 
F   i 0  V   i 0  for i, j  1, 2,3  
 X j   X j   
The characteristic polynomial for the above matrix is
    3  a1 2  a2   a3  0
   0 0 where
  1
Hence, F   0 0 0  and a1    3 2           0 which is obvious.
  
 0 0 0
  1          2     
a2   2 
    2    2    2    3  2  
2 2 2 3
 (   )  0 
1     (    2       )     
  2
V    (1   )      0 
     
    
      2 2      (     ) 
    
1     (    2       ) 
2

  
where V is non-singular matrix. Thus, the basic reproduction
           2      (     ) 
number R0 which is the spectral radius of matrix FV 1 is given
as      (    2       2 ) 1  R0 
  (     )
R0 

               2           2  

On equating the set of equations (2) equal to zero, an endemic If R0  1 then a2  0 .

equilibrium point defined as smoking present equilibrium
point ( E * ) is obtained which is as follows:

Smoking present equilibrium is E*  (S * , TB* , M * ) where

  M*  (1   )TB*
S*  , M *
 ,
     TB*    
(     )( R0  1)
TB* 
R0     (     )   (   ) 
2

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 2               TB*   S *  

   
1          
2

a3  
 M * 
J (E* )    TB*  
  2     3   2   3  TB*

   
  2   3   2   4   3   0  (1   ) (     ) 
 
1                  
2
R
 
*
    trace J  E *     TB*  2    *    
               TB
                2  0

          
  STB*  2        M *TB*       
2

 2 
                2 
1  TB  1     TB  1    
*2

 
*

 
det J  E *   * 
           TB  TB* 1     TB* 1    
1  
                  
2
 * 
  M         M        
*

                2 
 M *         
 R0         1      1   
1   TB*
  
               2 
2   M *         TB*  1   

  TB*  1      2 S *TB*      
  
  R0     2 S *TB*        TB*  1   
     
 TB*         TB*  1   

If R0  then a3  0 .
    1          1       
           S *TB*   M * 
Also,
a1a2  a3
1  0
    3 2           
 
    (    2       2 ) 1  R0   Now, the second additive compound matrix of J  E *  [1], [13]
 
which is given by J 2  E *  is as follows:
          2    
    2            2    
   R0    0   * M 
*



              TB  *    
  TB  
 2 *  
J E     (1   )        2   TB 
*
 S *


 If R0  1 and R0  then a1a2  a3  0 .  
   M *

0  TB*   *       
   TB 
 By Routh Hurwitz criteria [6], if R0  1 and R0 
 
then a1  0 , a3  0 and a1a2  a3  0 which proves that E0 is
locally asymptotically stable.
Lemma 3.1.2: (stability of E * ) Let K be a real matrix of order
3  3 . If tr ( K ) , det( K ) and det( K [2] )  0 then all the eigen
values of the matrix K have negative real parts.
Proof: On linearizing the set of equations (2) at point
E*  (S * , TB* , M * ) the Jacobian matrix of the system (2) is
obtained as follows:

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  * M 
*
  g g   g g   g g 
M        T  *   Curl g   3  2  iˆ   3  1  ˆj   2  1  kˆ .
  E 
*
 2 B
  *         TB    TB M   S M   S TB 
*
det J
 TB  
      2   TB    (1   ) 
*

Then, the system of differential equations

  TB* (1   )   2 S *TB* S  f1 , TB  f 2 , M  f3 has no homoclinic loops, periodic
 * M 
*
solutions and oriented phase polygons inside * .
      TB   Proof: Suppose
 TB* 
      
M * 
   *       *   S , TB , M  : 1    S    TB  M  1, S  0, TB  0, M  0
 TB      
   M *  Also, it can easily be proved that * is subset of  , * is
       2       TB*   *  positively invariant and endemic equilibrium E * belongs to
  TB   * . Let f1 , f 2 and f 3 represents the right-hand side of
 
       TB   TB   M
* * *
 equations in set of equations (2) respectively. Using
  (1   )   T * (1   )      
 B  1    S    TB  M  1 to write f1 , f 2 and f3 in the
    
equivalent forms, we get
   M * 
   2 S *TB*       TB*  *  
  TB   f1  S , TB      STB   M      S
0
   
f1  S , M      S 1  M  1    S       M      S
*
Hence, E is locally asymptotically stable by above lemma.       
B. Global Stability f 2  S , TB    STB   M  (   )TB
      
Theorem 3.2.1: (stability of E0 ) If    then E0 is   STB  (   )TB   1  1    S    TB 
globally asymptotically stable.     
Proof: Consider the Lyapunov function f 2 TB , M    STB   M  (   )TB
L  t   TB  t   M  t 
 TB       

dL
       TB   STB   M   1    TB      M   M  1  M    TB    M  (   )TB
dt 1     
  TB  TB   STB   M   TB   TB   M   M   M f3  S , M    TB (1   )  (    ) M   M
   TB  M   TB   S      M
   
0   (1   ) 1  M  1    S     (     )M
      
We have
dL
 0 for  S   f3  I , R    TB (1   )  (      ) M
dt
dL Suppose g   g1 , g2 , g3  be a vector field such that
But we have noted that S  1 so  0 for    and
dt
dL
 0 when TB  M  0 .
dt
 By LaSalle’s Invariance Principle [12], E0 isglobally
asymptotically stable.
Theorem 3.2.2: (stability of E * ) Consider a piecewise smooth
vector field
g  S , TB , M   g1  S , TB , M  , g 2  S , TB , M  , g3  S , TB , M  on
r
* that satisfies the condition  Cur lg   n  0 , g  f  0
inside * ,where f   f1 , f 2 , f3  is a Lipschitz continuous
r
field inside * , n is a normal vector to * and

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f3 S, M  f 2  S , TB  So, the system (2) has no homoclinic loops, periodic solutions
g1   and oriented phase polygons in the interior of * .
SM STB
 E* is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of * .
  1      1    
  
S SM      S      IV. NUMERICAL SIMULATION
 1     1     
   
M      S S In this section, numerical results with their interpretation are
discussed which will help us to know the behavior of
  1         
   
individuals in each compartment.
STB TB S  
f 1  S , TB  f 3 TB , M 
g2  
STB TB M
 M
  
STB STB
     1    M
  
TB M STB
f 2 TB , M  f1  S , M 
g3  
TB M SM
   
  
M 1    M 1   
 TB        
    
M 1       TB SM S
      
    
M           Fig. 2. Motion of Individuals in all Compartments
 S        
   Figure 2 shows that as the more number of smokers gets
M      M affected from tuberculosis simultaneously these large number
As the alternate form of f1 , f 2 and f 3 are equivalent of infected individuals have to go for medication which is also
increasing and after some time both infected and medicated
g  f  g1 f1  g2 f 2  g3 f3  0 people decreases which shows that they are on the way to quit.
     
Normal vector n  1   , ,1
  
r         
Curl g   2      iˆ
 TB STB M 1       
    1       
 2  2   
S M S M     
  ˆj
  1        1   1      
    
 SM           
2
M2
  M   1     ˆ
  2  2  2
 k
 S TB S TB STB TB 2 

r r  1         
 Curl g   n      1    
STB M   
       1     S 1     1
 
S 2 SM 2
 M  2 1   
  2  
S 2TB S TB STB 2 TB 2 Fig. 3. Motion of Infected, Medication, Quitters in the
0 Compartment

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Volume 3, Issue 1, January – 2018 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
Figure 3 shows that the region acquired by the individuals
opting for medication after suffering from tuberculosis is more
which is essential to get cure from it whereas there are in all
less number of individuals who opts for quitting.
Fig. 4: Motion of Individuals Suffering from Tuberculosis due
to Change in R0
Figure 4 shows that increase in reproduction number increases
the infected individuals, equivalently infected individuals
spread tuberculosis at a higher rate.
Fig. 5. Motion of Indidviduals Going for Medication for
Change in R0
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ISSN No:-2456 –2165
Figure 5 shows that for both the values of threshold i.e. for
threshold less than unity and greater than unity, the number of
individuals going for medication increases initially for few
time, but it decreases with the passage of time which shows
that they have understood the harmfulness of smoking and tries
to get rid of it.
Fig. 6. Motion of Quitters for Change in R0
Figure 6 shows that for R0  1 the number of quitters increases
in comparison to R0  1 which shows that these increased
number of individuals pushes more and more quitters to quit
from smoking.
V. CONCLUSION
In this paper, a smoking dynamical system has been
constructed to know the various stage faced by a smoker. An
individual who smokes continuously will suffer from
tuberculosis at some stage in their journey of life. We have
tried to analyze that how the smoker can quit themselves from
their habit due to their illness using mathematical model.
Using the parametric values, 20% of the individuals still
persists in the society who suffers from tuberculosis only
because of smoking. Medication is the only step to get cured
from the disease. Local stability and global stability conditions
has also been achieved for smoking free and smoking
existence equilibrium points. Analytical results show that it is
better to quite themselves from the beginning rather to become
victim of the disease and then quit. As this smoking related
issues has spread vitally among the young generations, it is
advisable to make a ban on the cigarette by the government so
as to make the society healthy.
VI. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The author thanks DST-FIST file # MSI-097 for technical
support to the Department of Mathematics.
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