DR.

RAM MANOHAR LOHIYA NATIONAL LAW

UNIVERSITY, LUCKNOW
2017-18

ECONOMICS
PROJECT
ON

“ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF POPULATION ON GROWTH OF INDIA.”

SUBMITTED BY: UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF:

ANIKET SACHAN DR. MITALI TIWARI

RollNo-28 ASSITANTPROFESSOR(ECONOMICS)

SECTION-“A” DR. RAM MANOHAR LOHIYA

B.A. LLB (Hons.), Ist SEMESTER NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY

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Table of Contents
TENTATIVE CHAPTERISATION ............................................................................................

1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... pg 4

2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION .......................................................................... pg 5-6

3. POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS…………………………………………….. ………….pg 7-10

4. CAUSE OF RAMPANT RISE IN POPULATION ………………………….....................pg 11

5. IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON ECONOMY OF INDIA…………………pg 12-18

6. STEPS TO REDUCE POPULATION…………………………………………………………………………pg 19-21

7. GOVERNMENT CONTROL AND MEASURES ……………………………………………....pg 22

8. FAMILY PLANNING………………………………………………………………………………………pg 23

9. CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………...............................................pg 24

REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...pg 25-26

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to my teacher Dr.Mitali Tiwari , who

gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project of Economics on “IMPACT OF

GROWTH OF POPULATION ON ECONOMY OF INDIA”, Who also helped me in

completing my project and has rendered endless support, kind and understanding spirit during

my project completion. I came to know about so many new things I am really thankful to them.

The completion of this project could not have been possible without the participation and

assistance of various people thus, I would also like to thank my parents and friends who helped

me a lot in finalizing this project within the limited time frame.

I would also like to thank the Great Almighty, source of supreme knowledge for countless love

rendered on me.

ANIKET SACHAN

ROLLNO-28

ENROLLMENT ID- 170101028

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 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

Impact of growth of population on economy of a country has always been a subject of debate and

disagreement among economists. Human being is a vital component in field of economics. He is

the ultimate END and MEANS of economic activities. They are instruments of production and end

themselves. Hence it becomes matter of great importance to know in quantitate terms the number

of people of a given country at a given time, the rate at which they grow and their distribution

because they are an asset and boon when present in rights numbers or else becomes liability.

In this project we will discuss the effect of India’s rampant growth of population on its economy.the

following research in this project is using secondary data. The rate of population growth in India

is high and thus to evaluate its growth on economy is necessary. Every place and corner of India

is provides a clear portray of increasing population. Whether once is in a metro station, airport,

railway station, road, highway, bus stop, hospital, shopping mall, market, temple, or even in a

social/ religious gathering, he see all these places are overcrowded at any time of the day. This is

a clear indication of overpopulation in the country.

This over population in india has really affected its growth as it has resulted in diversification of

many problems such as Unemployment, Lack of utilisation of manpower, pressure on

infrastructure facilities, Economic disparity, Inequitable Income Distribution, Scarcity of

resources. Hence a control on our population is effective need of hour or else it would result in

disastrous effect.

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 CHAPTER 2: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS

The present population features is resultant of past developments. Hence to look into new problems

it is necessary to delve into trends of past. These trends relates to the various angles from which

population growth can be looked at such as its number, its density, sex composition etc.

(Agarwal, A., & Agarwal, M. (1975)).

FIRST STAGE OF TRANSITION-

It is marked by period when both birth rate and death rate were high. Death rates were

comparatively high because of poor diet, lack of hygiene and sanitation and medication facilities.

On the other hand birth rates were high because of absesnce of family planning measures , marriage

at early age, belief regarding more children add to security of parents in old age

“children contribute at an early age… and are traditional source of security in old ageof parents.

The prevalent high death rates, especially in infancy, imply that such security can be attained only

when many children are born.” (Datt, R., & Sundharam, K. (1965))

Therefore, in this society and period the rate of population is not high as high rate of birth is

countered by high death rate..

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 SECOND STAGE OF TRANSITION

Various factors in this period for example rise in income, availability of food and supply via

transport etc led to decline in Death rate by considerable margin. The birth rate remained high but

this period witnessed low death rate which results in acceleration of population. This stage marks

the growth of average size of family due to rising birth rate and falling death rate.

THIRD STAGE OF TRANSITION

Economic development in this period changed the character of economy from agrarian economy

to industrialized one due to which a shift was witnessed from rural to urban areas. A consciousness

raised for maintenance of resources for standard living which tend to reduce size of family. Hence

this period was marked by low birth rate, low death rate, small family size and low growth of

population. (Datt, R., & Sundharam, K. (1965).

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 CHAPTER 3: POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

Change in decadal Average

Decadal growth Progressive
growth annual
growth
Census exponential
Population rate over
Years growth
1901
Absolute Percent Absolute Percent rate
(percent)
(percent)

1901 23,83,96,327 - - - - -

1911 25,20,93,390 1,36,97,063 5.75 - - 0.56 5.75

-
1921 25,13,21,213 -7,22,177 (0.31) -6.05 -0.03 5.42
14469240

1931 27,89,77,238 2,76,56,025 11.00 28428202 11.31 1.04 17.02

1941 31,86,60,580 3,96,83,342 14.22 12027317 3.22 1.33 33.67

1951 36,10,88,090 4,24,27,510 13.31 2744168 -0.91 1.25 51.47

1961 43,92,34,771 7,81,46,681 21.64 35719171 8.33 1.96 84.25

1971 54,81,59,652 10,89,24,881 24.806 30778200 3.16 2.20 129.94

1981 68,33,29.097 13,51,69,445 24.666 26244564 -0.14 2.22 186.64

1991 84,64,21,039 16,30,91,942 23.87 27922497 17.12 2.16 255.05

2001 1,02,87,37,436 18,23,16,397 21.54 19224455 10.54 1.97 331.52

2011 1,21,01,93,422 18,14,55,986 17.64 -860411 -0.47 1.64 407.64

Fig 1.1 (“Envis Center on Population and Environment.” (2017))

India’s population is very large in size and its growing rapidly. This has paved a plethora of

difficulties in path of economic development. India has around 2.4% area of land and supports

17% of world population. According to census of India in 2001, India’s population reached 1.21

billion compared to 1901 population which was 236 million and in 2001 it was 1.087 billion. By

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the above table taken from census of 2011 we conclude and derive a position to characterize growth

of population into four phases:

1) 1901-1921: Stagnant Population

2) 1921-1951: Steady Growth

3) 1951-1981: Rapid high Growth

4) 1981-2001: high growth with definite signs of slowing down

Fig 1.2 ("Envis Center on Population and Environment", 2017)

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 fig 4

The large size of India’s population is not only the problem but also more serious is the rapid

increase in the population. The rampant increase in the population started from1921 and continued

till 1951 and could be even termed as Population Explosion.

During the (1891-1921) period population of India grew from 236 million to 251 million in 1921.

The annual growth rate was negligible i.e. 0.19% for that particular period. Then comes the

period of GREAT DIVIDE. The situation of population in our country after 1921 is quite different.

The previous phase which was marked by slow growth was succeeded by a phase of rapid and

uninterrupted increase in it. Thus 1921 is described as year of great divide.

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The decadal increase in population during 1921-1931 was 277 lakhs, further a increase of 397

lakhs in year 1931-1941 and rise of 424 lakh in year1941-1951. Hence in the (1921-1951) period

the population grew from 251 million to 361 million i.e. by 110 million.() The growth rate was

1.22 %. The main reason attributing this rise was the reduction in death rate compared to birth

rate as control to many epidemics such as cholera tuberculosis plague etc. was found which earlier

catered to loss of many lives.

Then after 1951 there was sudden and large upward spurt in population. The growth rate was

unprecedented one. We could witness this rapid growth by mere look on growth of previous

decades. The growth rate of the period 1951-1981 was double of period 1921-1951. This period is

characterized by growth rate of 2.14% ( approx double of 1.22%).

Then during 1981-2001, population increased from 684 million to 1027 million at a rate of 2.05%.

The period of 1981-1991 and 1991-2001 measured a declined growth rate of 2.11% and 1.93%

which was a welcome trend which needed to be strengthened.

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 CHAPTER 4: CAUSE OF RAMPANT RISE IN POPULATION

The two main common causes resulting in over population in India are:

The birth rate is greater than the death rate on a considerable margin.

Despite of the fall in fertility rate it is yet much higher compared to other countries.

Following cause leading to population explosion are-

Early Marriage: although the marriageable age of a girl is 18 years, early marriage still

prevails and it extends the child bearing age.

Poverty and Illiteracy: Another factor for the rapid growth of population is poverty.

Impoverished families have this notion that more the number of members in the family,

more will be the numbers to earn income. Some feel that more children are needed to look

after them in their old age. Strange but true, Indian still lag behind the use of contraceptives

and birth control methods

Age old cultural norm: Sons are the bread earners of the families in India. This age old

thought puts considerable pressure on the parents to produce children till a male child is

born.

Illegal migration: We cannot ignore the fact that illegal migration is continuously taking

place from Bangladesh, Nepal leading to increased population density.

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 CHAPTER 5: IMPACT OF GROWING POPULATION ON ECONOMY

OF INDIA

Our country population is very large and is still growing at an alarming rate and by 2025 we will

overcome population of China to be number one populated country of world. Excessive

population results in working institutions dysfunctionality and makes all its incentive to rectify a

country’s infrastructure, medical assistance facilities and social welfare initiatives ineffective.

Same is the case with Indian Government which has struggled to enact reforms over the past 69

years since independence but owing to our nation’s population there is not a massive significant

change. The factors of production cannot contribute fully to growth. Following areas are

adversely affected by increasing population in our country.

I) NATURAL RSOURCES

Effect of population in this sector can be categorised in two ways-

i) THE LAND AREA

According to census 2011 population density of India is 382 person per square kilometre. Within10

years we have seen increase from 324 as of in 2001. This rampant increase has resulted in declining

land-man ratio. It has resulted in obstruction in improvements in agriculture. It has sapped the

capacity of cultivators to improve upon agricultural practises, there is neither large amount of farm-

work which results in disguised unemployment and under employment in agricultural sector, there

is a widening gap between fast rising demand of certain food items on account of this population

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rise compared to slower rise in the output of food articles. The reason for it is that food grows

arithmetically while population grows geometrically.

This has resulted in importing more grains from other countries and hence causing serious deficits

in balance of payments. Hence it is obvious that population rise in no aspect is contributing to

progress but it is basically adding to the difficulties and making the problem more acute.

ii) THE RESOURCES GARNERED BY NATURE.

Large population also caters loss of wealth of nature. In India it is an important cause of

reduction of natural resources. “Rightly do the Malthusian economists argue that the world of

nature is finite and has a given productive capacity. As such it cannot accommodate population

larger than its capacity.” (Agarwal & Agarwal, 1975)

The excessive cultivation has caused a great harm to soil, causing yield to fall down. Since

the good land is reducing in amount, poor people have shifted to arid regions and hillsides

resulting in degradation of that land too. To get more and more land under cultivation to

support such huge population, forest which are richest ecosystem of biodiversity and

biomass are spoiled by excessive deforestation hence upsetting the ecology which leads to

consequential effect on development of economy of a nation.

“ Land areas, resources of water, forest are over exploited resulting in scarcity of resources.

According to estimates half of India’s 329 million hectares of soil is degraded. Small size

of land holdings results in wastage of land & capital and productivity is adversely affected.

The water table in India is falling by an average of 6 feet every year. According to the

World Bank, resource degradation costs the Indian economy 4.5% of GDP annually.”

("Population growth and economic development in India", 2017)

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 II) LABOUR SUPPLY

Availability of labour is one of the essential factor of any economy. Some economists who believe

population expansion has no effect on economy give their point that large sized population should

be welcomed rather than criticizing it because it results in large labour force which ultimately

results in more production. This concept though has worked in many advanced nation but when

we look through through this opinion in our country the situation isn’t good rather creates more

problem and burdens the economy.

i) UNABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE

It takes long time for children to enter into labour age group (15-60years), by that time high birth

rate will add raising their numbers in total population which ultimately means increase in number

of unproductive consumers or dependence on work force. With their productivity already low it

will surely effect enterprise of labour force.

Secondly there is another possibility that as population increases work-force might be reduced.

Woman who are also part of labour may not be able to contribute to this section taking care of

their young ones which would reduce labour time for productive activites. “Thirdly because of high

mortality rate, many children die before entering working age. Hence there would be loss to labour

force because the potential working hands are lost and also because resources for their rearing gets

wasted.” (Agarwal & Agarwal, 1975)

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 ii) INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM

Economic development in true sense means that employment should increase and there should be

a fall in unemployment. Excessive and rampant growth in population stimulates serious

unemployment and under-employment problem in India. Due to rise in population in India labour

force has been rising tremendously & rapidly since 1951. In light of such facts much of our

investment efforts are focussed at ‘procuring the growing labour force in productive employment’

due to which our ability to raise productivity of labour is severely restrained.

This rise in labour force will make the situation worse. The rise of them is more than absorptive

capacity of economy. The current data speaks out following unemployment quantative numbers

and unemployment rate predicted report of United Nations for year 2017-2018.

“Unemployment in India is projected to increase from 17.7 million last year to 17.8 million in 2017

and 18 million next year. In percentage terms, unemployment rate will remain at 3.4 per cent in

2017-18.” ("Unemployment in “India to increase marginally in 2017-18: UN Report - Times of

India", 2017)

At present when there is large capital stock yet increase in labour force is uncalled for because to

further raise capital stock, improve technologies it is an essential requirement to reduce this force

because future industries requires capital-knowledge intensive and high level human incentive

capital rather than physical labour. Hence we cannot support the angle of increasing labour force

as desirable to problem of increasing population.

It is explicit from above that increasing labour force to a good extent is responsible for huge

unemployment and underemployment prevailing in India.

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 III) CAPITAL FORMATION

For any nation’s success and prosperity, a high rate of capital formation is critical to the

development of country. But the fast growing population makes it difficult to attain it. Instead of

helping it is diminishing resources for capital formulation.

i) DOWNFALL IN INVESTMENT RESOURCES

The investment resources being used today to maintain the low level of per capita income of rising

population is in negative reducing the resources for capital formation termed as “demographic

investment”. It is mere enough to sustain the additional population at existing level of population

and to maintain the lower demographic investment it is necessary to increase per capita income.

But with rampant rising of population capital formation to raise growth rate becomes a difficult

task. Hence only at lower population growth economic investment becomes feasible. (Agarwal &

Agarwal, 1975)

ii) REDUCTION IN SAVING

As soon as people begin to increase, the level of consumption also increases as increase

in population means addition to numbers of consumers. There are more mouths to feed

even though per capita expenditure remains the same, income level being same, there is

increase in consumption which ultimately results in low saving. To counter this problem

there is not any other way possible. Hence consequences of rapidly rising population are

certainly unfavourable for capital formation.

“Crux of increasing population is that it limits the saving and investment of the country.

The average annual per capita income is very low. The purchasing power of the people is

extremely poor. The nation income leaves12 no margin for saving. It may be said that only

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 about 20% of the national income is invested in the economy. Shortage of saving lies at the

root of capital deficiency. An alarming rate of population growth makes it very difficult to

step up the rate of saving.” (India, Us & Singhal, 2017)

IV) POPULATION AND POVERTY.

Firstly, the per capita income in India is low, secondly Indian economy is characterized by massive

inequalities in the dispensation of income and wealth. In India, inequalities are on hike. The bull’s

eye or crux of this inequality is poverty at an large scale. “Nearly 60% of the total population

share one-third of India’s national income while only rich 5 % of the total population enjoy the

same amount of national income. ”(8 Major Problems Faced by the Indian Economy, 2017).

India accounted for the largest number of people living below international poverty line in 2013,

with 30 per cent of its population under the $1.90-a- day poverty measure, the World Bank

said.India accounts for one in three of the poor population worldwide. India is by far the country

with the largest number of people living under the international USD 1.90-a-day poverty line.India

had 30 per cent of its population living below poverty line at 224 million, it said.Nearly 800 million

people lived on less than USD 1.90 a day in 2013. This inequality widens the problem of poverty.

("India has highest number of people living below poverty line: World Bank", 2017)

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 V) POOR INFRASTRUCTURE

At present high population densities has resulted in overloaded infrastructure in urban areas.

According to a survey “27% of India’s urban population today lives without sanitation and 24%

lives without access to tap water. The rampant rise of population of India in its major cities is

expected to increase by an average of 25% by 2020. Over-strained infrastructure India’s population

will be 72% urbanized by 2030. It is estimated that India will require construction of 3.6 million

housing units in urban areas every year, to address additional population requirements.”

("Population growth and economic development in India", 2017)

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 CHAPTER 6: STEPS TO CONTROL POPULATION

Whom to blame for this rise?

Population, if prolongs to increase at the same rate, it will surely destroy the country. Lack

of initiative by the government along with with sleeping people of India, are the main culprits

for this destructive problem. People are not diverting their attention to the seriousness and gravity

of this problem. One day the situation will be of riots, people fighting over food and water and

India will transform into the largest slums creator. All cities will become like fish market with a

surging crowd walking down 24 hours. Everybody will scream, shout, but nobody will listen.

Rapid reduction in the population growth rate can be achieved by meeting the following measures-

1. Using various means of communication to persuade people to adopt small familynorms.

2.Making available family planning methods through different outlets in everyregion.

3.Promoting female education and employment.

4.Promotion of delayed marriages.

5 improving status of women.

This problem of our country can be checked by social and economic measures

Economic measures-

Family size employed in industrial sector is less than those employed in agricultural sector.

Hence the excess in agricultural sector can be transferred to some other sectors. According

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 to beliefs number of children are more because some think that benefit from additional

child is more than his upbringing. In contrast to it industrial workers are aware of their

situation and difficulties of getting employment and interested in restricting family size.

They also realize that to raise their standard of living restriction of family is required.

Creation of employment in urban areas may also garner the problem of population hike as

the housing problem and cost of upbringing of children in urban areas can be factors which

could deter them from having big families.

Poor people having little stakes in life are unconcerned about limiting the size of family.

Providing them with basic amenities may change their condition and in this situation they

might be conscious of number of children they should have. All that is required is change

in distribution of income.

Social measures-

Promotion of education is a must factor to reduce population explosion in India. It will

curb the orthodox society segment which believe children as gifts of God and would surely

induce them to practice small family norms as it makes vision wider and at more mundane

level helps to disseminate knowledge of family planning.

Position of women in Indian society is still inferior and backward compared to opposite

gender socially and economically. In backward sections women still don’t have a

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 discretion to number of children they should have. It is still believed that son would

comfort to security of parents in old age and will complete religious rituals. Hence

preventing such discrimination would also help to curb increasing population of India.

There should be strict enforcement of legal implementation of raising minimum age of

marriage of girls.

Then comes the most important step required to be undertaken to reduce the menace of population

of India i.e. FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES.

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 CHAPTER 7: GOVT STEPS AND MEASURES

National Population Policy,2000

“Government announced this policy on 15th February, 2000 aiming to cover three objectives.

Firstly, the main objective is to meet the needs for contraception, health care infrastructure, child

health care. Secondly, the medium objective is to bring TFR( total fertility rate: average number

of children per woman in reproductive age group to replacement level by 2010. Thirdly, its long

term aim is to have a stable population by 2045 so as to be in consistency with economic social

and environmental growth.” (Agarwal, A., & Agarwal, M. (1975)).

The policy seeks to attain its goal by decentralising this work to panchayats and palikas and taking

some help from NGO’s. Emphasis is laid on to meet the drawbacks regarding use of contraceptives

and health personnel etc., spread of message of small family forms through education &

communication. There has been a setup of National Population Commission to ensue coordination

at all stages, even there is proper allocation of funding. It aims at removing hurdles in way of small

family norm as a significant place is given to reducing mortality rate, raising marriage age,

providing incentives for Birth at late stage and bringing down total fertility rate.

To achieve family planning following goals were adopted by govt-

Extensive use of sterilization of both males and females.

Supply of contraceptives to all section of society.
Financial incentives for family planning in form of cash rewards for undergoing
sterilization.
Motivation program to spread knowledge of family planning through communication.
(Datt, R., & Sundharam, K. (1965)).

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 CHAPTER 8: FAMILY PLANNING

Population growth has been a matter of great concern for the Government of India since a very

long time. It goes to the credit of government that it realized at an early stage the very need for

small family norms. In fact, India became first country in the world to have government level

family panning program. The country launched a nationwide Family Planning Programme in

1952.

At initial stage it was limited to clinical stage for people who sought them on their own but later

on it expanded and includes birth control, child-mother care etc. Apart from it lead to

establishment of family planning centres in cities and rural areas promoting the guidance and

counselling regarding various methods of planning. But there are weakness in government

particular policy as the non-fulfilment of targets speak about weakness of this measure. Apart

from it early marriages still prevalent in our country accounts for the failure of family planning

norms. Widespread illiteracy and poverty, lack of impairment of knowledge, Gender inequality,

preference of sons over daughters, age-old cultural norms continue to manifest poor family

planning practices across entire country.

The family planning programmes are successful to a extent but India still has a long way to go.

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 CHAPTER 9: CONCLUSION

Fast rapid population growth of India at an alarming rate is a great matter of contemplation and

concern for the development of country as it has disastrous effect on Indian Economy. It manifolds

various problems which are negative stimulus to our economy and making are country to grow at

slow pace. The major consequences of this increase is environment degradation. Excessive

population facilitates urbanization and industrialization which leads us to exploitation of natural

resources, deforestation, reduction in forest health which ultimately affects human health.

It has lower down standard of living of people and with addition to new people our national income

share which could have been used for development and welfare of people gets reduced to look

after the needs of increasing people. Apart from it poverty and unemployment are also elevating

because of this rise in population.

Hence for the betterment it is a necessary step to deaccelerate or slower down our population

growth. Indian people are not able to maintain their standard of living owing to population rise.

Thus In this project we discussed and covered the factors which are negatively impacting our

growth in economy and how the rise of population needs to be checked as early as possible to

boost the development, welfare of people and prosperity of nation.

What is desired is the will of the people as well as the cooperation of the Government to promote

family planning methods and to maintain our population in coming years.

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 REFERENCES
Books:

1) Agarwal, A., & Agarwal, M. (1975). Indian Economy: Problems of Development and
Planning(42nd ed., p. 55). New Delhi: New Age International Limited.

2) Datt, R., & Sundharam, K. (1965).

3) Indian Economy (55th ed., pp. 41,42). Delhi: S Chand.

4) Dhingra, I.C., Garg, V.K., Economic Development and Planning in India, (15thedn.), 2002,
Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi

5) Misra, S.K., Puri, V.K., Indian Economy, (25thedn.), 2007, Himalaya Publishing House, Mumbai

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September 2017, from http://www.iipsenvis.nic.in/Database/Population_4074.aspx

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economic-development-in-india

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2017-18-un-report/articleshow/56512962.cms

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indian-economy/8-major-problems-faced-by-the-indian-economy/14140

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(2017). Businesstoday.in. Retrieved 30 September 2017, from
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6) India, I., Us, C., & Singhal, N. (2017). Impact of Population on Indian Economy - Important
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