Stat 330 Midterm 1 Spring 2009 Please write your first and last name here: ‘There are 5 questions worth a total of 100 points. Please show your work. T will give partial credit, I will not give any credit to an answer that is a single number, even if that single number happens to be correct. In many cases, a line or two of justification is enough. ‘The questions are roughly in the order in which I presented the material, so they are not necessarily ordered casiest to hardest. If you get stuck on one, it may be a good idea to move on and come back to that question at the end, The last page is scratch paper. Sn.1. Two magazines are sold in a small town. The proportions of individuals who read the two magazines are as follows: Magazine A: 40 (a.} Let A be the event that a person reads magazine A, and let B be the event that a person reads magazine B, Are A and B independent? Why or why not? (10 points) A ©® oer indeptrdune Ss P(AnB) = eM) PO”). Because PLA) PLB) = (64) (9) =.36 2 Plana, DED nee indeptadtat , (b.) What proportion of individuals reads magazine A or magazine B? (10 points) PCA) 448) - Plane) “t+ ay a4 PLAYS) n2. Suppose license plates have 6 entries, The first three entries must be letters (A last three must be digits (0-9). Letters and digits can be used more than once. (a) A license plate is used? (Hint: Tt n point 2), and the lected randomly. What is the probability that the letter Z is not ielp to first find the total number of possible license plates.) (6 > We (Fama plokt SL #] passe Lt pk a ASD) Bo yctsrAsempin 1 \ Seta) }f ss Pm al BZ v7 pin jul = aerlo> (rye Be | 4) e 4 . 4 zijn zy aac eats BAY Barth stn lal = 2s *fo% (9, : we) BAe a) ial 25%/0 P(A) = ir ~ 263 (b.) Jen was born in February of ” the letters J. She chooses a license plate by randomly ordering ind N in the first three spots and randomly ordering the digits 2, 7, and 7 in the last three spots. What is the probability that Jen chooses a license te with the two 7's adjacent? (Hint: It may help to first find the total number of possible license plates that Jen can pick.) (6 points) SL=] Ul possintl/pt mats for Tem (dis Mis ae / 3) Bi wos ko gear / (7) wos by pla | wut (3!) (A) ie ee barb Ra | A S posting, NS lead postin } 2! je tro 315 art odin oh ke Fe Bee [a= (39) (2) +e Bamps es | TS ops! \ ial 2 (& - Noten) Vout nee k dy Pals ayrie ey °F a ae vente S| \ } J OME3. An imperfect test is applied to computer chips coming off of an assembly line. If the test indicates that a chip is defective, then an alarm sounds. The probability that a chip is defective is 1. The probability that the alarm sounds given that the chip is actually defective is .98. The probability that the alarm sounds given that the chip is not defective is 03. In other words, P(Delective) = .1 _ P(Alarm|Defective) =.98 P(Alarm|Not Defective) = .03 (a.) What is the probability that a chip is defective, given that the alarm sounds? (9 points) PC Baa) PAtD) PLO) oo PONS) ba) etary 8c) vet Dent PEAD) PO) 7 _ PADI RD oe = PEARL) 4 eCAUB) WD) (ary 0) _ (8) -2(8) < = F8¢ - (aey(.t) + G09(8) (b.) What probability that the test result is incorrect? (In other words, what is the over-all error rate of the test?) (6 points) Error = Gigem and nih dtftctiod Pere) =P ANB o Ra ) ho adage and seftrave PCADB) + PLAMB) ~ Becmnee (MAB) ACEO) = qh = PLAIB) PC) APPA) (03) CA) + (002) Cl) PAD) 2 -PLaLD) = 1 ae a « 1024 zim(c.) A manufacturer tests n chips from the assem identically distributed with the probabilitis y line. The tests are independent and above, (i) What is the probability that at least one of the n chips is actually defective? Your answer will be a function of n. (7 points) Lit Ne {5 nie hefeetie. Drureniet PODLELY Saf Bera By wre HA Bernanis al. Pl ok (task one dtfecr) = PO SUEE Fre of Work ove a) feces = 1 = PCR EO for an i) mone a we EL = 2( DED AA DED ond and be) a [= P= EOE A) = Dae d) =U-(4 (reas ) (ii) Suppose n = 3. What is the probability that the manufacturer selects exactly 2 defective chips? (7 points) = Rd 20 = There ort 3 dhistinck ways b Suet aay DL dtne Oring C1) Bet Bath Base PC dpe Lave | aa Oye0) = IPC) dae fy Line!) (2) BEY peo pysi P(DE{ aa drzD ot yl) 2 Nera Ve DUB pay PDO aA Darl ond Pre ) =e. (3) 2 E> P( demuty 2 arfeawe cigs) = 3 CoC) 2.0144. A cookie jar contains 3 sugar cookies and 4 chocolate chip cookies. A child randomly selects 5 cookies from the jar. Let the random variable X be the number of sugar cookies that the child selects. (a.) What is the image of X? Is X discrete? Why or why not? (Recall that the image of X is the set of possible values of X.) (7 points) Te Westin does wR choke HE Samil ao Tg WAR, OF untnovk TL yladented « & Wer Be oA (0 EO) ndaty Unsiiun Lota Wb a . Samepting vais PLP labmatid | In Sattar eee | oN ae UU wae, TmOQ)= F134 | Seat) 29 DUUHNHSY, Lunt) o Thuct at Only Caathokt nip | © Cf fe Und Relauy vs acke CRW and child tS | Stlestek Om Aer Ne S criita, PL Cala SULAS | task dee, GL So KX Ot leaar ant Supper CLA | ake pr iehau a \s TOR only y Syayr Comitd, | De Wegmeny F Lae disucue he Te md gabts at Sk ereceter ina h | Berman: Uypert mans ib \ . Stor pie, in WAR regan (b.) What is a WNabability that J Srenpitny WOR replant: NG) 3 =>: K=3) = va abe y=) (3) ) az Que 3? (4 points) Pat Suk oo Saypr 8a Sao) snys cour @y ved Coorg 5 cues Stomling, wigr replaumunet rK3) S (ayy G8 sues SA Bernas (Sad, rau oe SHEARS Beaty LA 2 +d. + 4Now that Harold is in college, his mother misses him, Let X be the number of times that Harold’s mother calls him on a given day. Assume that Harold’s mother calls either zero times, 4 times, or 5 times in a day. The probability mass function of X is in the table below: x |o pea) [05 75 [p (0) Compute P(X = 5). (7 points) (b.) What is £(X]? (If you were unable to compute PLX your answer in terms of p.) (7 points) CXp = TRL XeImiX) = O-Gos) + #(3) +£(4) (c.) What is Var(X)? You may use the fact that B[X?] Vero = efx] Cerra) = te -()P =[. = 5) in part (a.), you may leave = 17. (4 points)(d.) Let x(x) denote the CDF (cumulative distribution function) ‘of X. What is Fx (1)? (5 points) ta ro exe) et eS? = °(X=0) & / ‘ 4 $ = 0S Cheatly, A (autres neces | oul By (c.) Assume Harold spends exactly 10 minutes talking with his mother every time she calls. Let T be the time Harold spends on the phone with his mother in a day. What is B{T|? What is Var(T)? (If you were unable to compute E[X] or Var(X), you may E{X] and a? = Var(X).) (5 points) leave your answer in terms of js = T =10X% Atle Lok] =X] = 40 mau. Vor(T) = Vor (tox) = LVI) = jod menus”