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Calgary Economic
& Housing Outlook
©2018 CREB®. All rights reserved.
The forecasts included in this document are based on information available
as of December 2017.
Prepared by Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist.
Edited by Terence Leung and Tyler Diffley. Designed by Sarah Maynes and Haley Steel.
Regional Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Labour Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
New home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 5
Resale market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Detached sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Attached sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Apartment sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
District Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Surrounding Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Airdrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Okotoks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Cochrane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Calgary Sales and Price Growth Forecast More balanced market conditions will be led by the
attached and detached sectors of the market, while
30,000 15%
the apartment sector will continue to struggle with
25,000 excess inventory in 2018. Prices will likely continue
10%
to face some downward pressure in the apartment
20,000
5%
sector, with stabilization not expected until the
15,000
latter portion of the year.
0%
10,000 The attached sector may benefit from changes
-5% in distribution, as some demand shifts from the
5,000
detached sector to the attached sector of the
Detached Apartment Price growth expected to be met with easing listings, supporting
Attached 10 Year - Average Forecast Source: CREB® overall stability in pricing.
• Improvements in the economic climate • Easing vacancy rates in the rental market.
countering the impact of changes in lending
• Relative affordability in the market.
criteria.
• Improved confidence in the overall economy.
• Employment growth and reduction in the
unemployment rate.
• Modest gains in migration.
•S
tricter lending criteria and rising rates has a •H
igh office vacancy, drop in rents, housing
greater than expected impact on demand for availability in all price ranges, and the available
housing, causing downward pressure on prices. pool of skilled labour could help attract
business investment to the city.
•A
ny significant shifts in the energy sector
could affect employment and confidence in the • Changes to NAFTA could cause uncertainty in
market, influencing overall housing activity. the market, impacting economic growth.
• If unemployment levels remain elevated this
could weigh on demand and prevent easing in
supply levels.
• If employment growth, wages and net
migration improve at a faster pace than
expected, stronger than expected demand
growth in 2018 may occur.
1% 2% 3%
Primary & Utilities slow recovery and this is a welcome change from
2% Construction
the past several years.
Manufacturing
4%
Transportation & Warehousing
5% In Calgary, 2017 also marked the end of the two-
32% Technical & Professional Services
Wholesale Trade
year recession and further gains are expected
Retail Trade in 2018. Despite the two-year growth, overall
16% Information and Cultural Industries economic activity is expected to remain below
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 2014 output. Growth figures appear strong,
Healthcare & Social Assistance
7% but this is over a lower base level, as Calgary
Educational Services
3% 4% has not experienced two consecutive years of
5% Accommodation & Food Services
4% 5% recession since the ’80s. Overall, fundamentals
7% Arts & Entertainment
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
TOTAL
Transportation & Warehousing Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Other Services
Technical & Professional Services Healthcare & Social Assistance Public Administration
50,000
few years, but investment activity will remain
80
well below levels recorded 2011 - 2015, limiting
40,000
60
the growth for energy sector jobs. Slower energy
30,000 sector employment growth will filter through
40
20,000 many aspects of our economy, including the
housing market.
10,000 20
The extent of the impact in terms of housing However, there is also more supply in the lower
market conditions, and the effectiveness with prices ranges and this makes the housing market
respect to risk reduction, is highly debated. more affordable than it was two years ago. In
However, many do agree these changes will 2017, more than 63 per cent of the housing
push some out of the marketplace or towards supply was priced below $500,000, and 41 per
unregulated lenders. cent of the detached supply was also below
that price. This is an improvement compared
In addition to the change, many forecasters to several years ago, where the share of supply
anticipate the Bank of Canada will increase rates under that price range was 52 per cent for all
by an additional 0.75 per cent in 2018. Steady properties and 36 per cent for detached.
increases are expected, but the pace of gains
will ultimately depend on wage growth, inflation, Availability of alternative lenders, supply choice
exchange rates and how the economy responds in the lower price ranges and an improving
to higher interest rates. economy will help temper the downward demand
impact of the rule changes and higher rates. We
Higher lending rates, combined with stricter anticipate these adjustments will prolong the
qualifications, tend to weigh on demand and period of recovery in our market and create some
impact price appreciation. These rate hikes are pockets of oversupply during the adjustment
also coming at a time when our market is coming period.
out of a recession. The period of recession has
impacted wage growth and caused excess supply
in the housing market, weighing on prices.
12%
2017. Figures point towards notable growth being
limited to public administration, accommodation
10%
and food services, healthcare and social
8% assistance, wholesale trade and transportation
6%
and warehousing. These areas generally tend
to have lower wages than the areas where job
4%
losses still occurred. Job losses mostly occurred
2% in primary industries1 and utilities, construction,
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
Transportation & Warehousing Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Other Services
Technical & Professional Services Healthcare & Social Assistance Public Administration
More people were employed in 2017 than in 2014 Despite some shifts within the labour
prior to the recession, but improvement came market, continued job growth and reduced
mostly from the service side of the economy. unemployment should help support the economic
However, there are over 30,000 fewer jobs recovery in our city and province. There may
today from the primary industries and utilities, continue to be some lagging effects on wages,
construction, and manufacturing sectors but overall growth will prevent further declines in
compared to 2014. These three sectors are our housing market.
expected to record some employment growth in
2018, but it’s not expected to be enough to cover
the previous job losses.
5,000
According to the 2017 civic census, the city’s
0
population stands at just over 1.2 million. The
-5,000 pace of growth over the next two years is
expected to improve to one per cent annually, as
-10,000
‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 net migration levels inch up.
Source: City of Calgary Civic Census Result 2017,
Forecast City of Calgary Forecast
Following the financial crisis, and prior to the
2015 recession, on average, Calgary welcomed
Alberta Quarterly Net Migration over 20,000 people to the city each year,
supporting the growth in both the new-home and
30,000 resale housing markets. However, by 2016 this
20,000
causing net migration to decline by 6,500 people.
While we did not experience a loss in 2017, with
15,000
974 migrants coming to the city, net migration
10,000
remained well below normal levels.
5,000
0
While the City of Calgary census figures do not
-5,000
provide details regarding the source of migration,
-10,000 we can gain insights from provincial migration
‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
figures. In Alberta, net migration eased compared
to previous levels. The slower growth was due to
Net Interprovincial Migration
Net International Migration inter-provincial outmigration, but we continued to
Source: Statistics Canada
see international migrants come to the province.
2%
Elevated vacancy rates have placed downward
1%
pressure on rent levels and landlords offered
0%
several incentives to tenants. The CMHC survey
‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18
indicated that using same sample methodology,
Forecast Source: CMHC, 2017 based on October CMHC survey, CMHC Forecast
apartment rents declined by 7.5 per cent in 2016
and another one per cent in 2017.
environment. 12,000
1,500
10,000
Starts activity in 2016 was at the lowest level
8,000
recorded since the financial crisis, while detached 1,000
6,000
starts were at their lowest levels since 1988.
4,000
Improving economic conditions through 2017 500
2,000
supported some gains in starts, with annual levels
of 4,423 and 7,111 for detached and multi-family 0 0
‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
units.
Single-family under construction Inventory
Multi-family under construction Source: CMHC®
Gains in the detached market were supported
by improved confidence in the market, along
with easing inventories in the resale sector in the Calgary CMA Housing Starts
early part of the year. In 2018, detached starts are
12000
expected to remain comparable to 2017 levels,
well below longer-term averages.
10000
-20% $0
‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18
16
Improving economic conditions in 2018 are
Months of Supply
expected to support modest demand growth.
However, rising interest rates and stricter lending 8
1
Further gains in higher-density new listings
0
will balance out with easing new listings in the
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
detached sector, preventing any significant
Trended Detached Trended Apartment
changes in the number of new listings coming
Trended Semi-Detached Trended Row Source: CREB®
onto the market. This should help ease the
upward pressure on inventory levels and support
a slow shift towards more balanced conditions. Forecast Price Comparison
12%
Despite expectations for the overall market, 10%
as we move through the year there is likely to 8%
be some bumpiness, as both purchasers and 6%
sellers navigate through impacts of the changes. 4%
During the period of adjustment, we are likely to 2%
experience pockets of the market that are not
0%
balanced, creating divergent price trends.
-2%
-4%
We anticipate citywide prices will remain
-6%
relatively unchanged this year, as sufficient
-8%
supply levels – combined with rising rates – 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
$300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000
<$300,000 - - - - - $1,000,000+
$399,999 $499,999 $599,999 $699,999 $999,999
The detached sector has generally seen fewer By the third quarter, sales started to ease,
price declines compared to the other segments with year-to-date totals at levels more in line
of the market throughout the recession. with economic fundamentals. Fourth quarter
Demand eased for this product throughout the sales resumed their growth, due to improved
recession, but it did not experience the same confidence in the market and many consumers
supply pressure from competing new-home looking to enter the market prior to the new
construction. This prevented the months of mortgage rule changes taking effect.
supply from reaching previous highs, unlike other
sectors of the market. Supply did not keep pace with the early rise in
demand in 2017. This resulted in stronger price
Detached sales in 2017 totaled 11,831 units, 5.6 per gains throughout the first portion of the year.
cent above 2016 figures, but nine per cent below However, as supply levels rose in response to
long-term trends. Sales improved, but most of the improving prices and demand, the pendulum
growth occurred in the first half of the year. This swung the other way. This elevated months of
is likely a result of some of the pent-up demand supply and put downward pressure on prices.
in the market. Despite the dynamics throughout the year,
detached benchmark prices averaged $504,867
in 2017, 0.63 per cent higher than last year.
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
$300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000
<$300,000 - - - - - $1,000,000+
$399,999 $499,999 $599,999 $699,999 $999,999
Moving forward, changes in lending criteria While demand shifts in this sector, new listings
and higher rates are likely to have more of an are also expected to ease, as some existing
impact on the detached sector. Sales activity homeowners will be adjusting their expectations.
is expected to slow by 1.3 per cent, as demand This should help ease the upward pressure
eases from some of the move-up buyers, and on inventories and support more balanced
some purchasers are pushed into more affordable conditions.
sectors of the market. However, more significant
declines are not expected, as the changes should During the transition, pockets of over/under
be mitigated by availability of supply in the lower supply may arise, creating divergent trends
price ranges, as well as general improvements in in pricing. We anticipate there will be some
the overall economic situation. price softness for higher-priced product, while
lower-priced homes may see modest price
In 2018, we anticipate seeing further shifts in the improvements.
distribution of sales, likely impacting average
and median prices. Prior to November 2017, The overall effect is expected to translate into
sales activity in the detached sector improved no significant changes in citywide detached
mostly in the upper price ranges. However, as of benchmark prices. However, shifts in distribution
November, there appeared to be a shift occurring to more affordable product should cause some
towards improved growth in the lower price downward pressure on average and median
ranges of the market. Other factors influencing prices.
the distribution of detached sales to more
affordable product can be related to employment
growth in traditionally lower-paying sectors.
-10%
$50,000
New construction for multi-family product is -20%
CITY OF
Citywide trends have been demonstrating the
slow recovery of the housing market, but activity
DISTRICT MAP
CALGARY can vary significantly within communities and
districts:
DETACHED
City Centre 1,290 11.0% 2,248 7.6% 57% 378 3.52 $682,892 2.45% -4.33% 10.90%
North East 1,297 -2.0% 2,489 7.7% 52% 389 3.60 $383,533 -0.89% -2.55% 10.96%
North 1,619 3.1% 2,755 14.1% 59% 411 3.05 $439,350 -0.13% -3.18% 13.68%
North West 1,746 4.7% 2,568 5.5% 68% 310 2.13 $544,725 0.03% -4.93% 14.76%
West 1,325 8.2% 2,128 2.9% 62% 301 2.72 $726,267 4.32% 0.00% 11.20%
South 2,418 10.5% 3,682 8.3% 66% 511 2.53 $476,592 -0.33% -4.94% 20.44%
South East 1,770 3.3% 2,667 0.1% 66% 369 2.50 $449,350 0.44% -3.92% 14.96%
East 369 3.4% 565 7.6% 65% 81 2.63 $354,250 -0.50% -3.33% 3.12%
TOTAL CITY 11,831 5.6% 19,095 6.6% 62% 2,751 2.79 $504,867 0.63% -3.30% 100.00%
APARTMENT
City Centre 1,338 3.2% 3,527 2.5% 38% 794 7.12 $289,650 -3.51% -11.72% 46.64%
North East 101 -6.5% 369 20.6% 27% 86 10.27 $233,592 -4.18% -12.81% 3.52%
North 167 9.9% 425 21.8% 39% 91 6.50 $219,100 -5.60% -16.00% 5.82%
North West 285 12.6% 611 2.3% 47% 128 5.38 $243,492 -3.64% -8.98% 9.93%
West 313 8.3% 704 0.6% 44% 152 5.82 $252,000 -2.44% -10.67% 10.91%
South 356 -6.8% 879 1.2% 40% 198 6.66 $234,608 -5.71% -12.51% 12.41%
South East 237 30.9% 506 3.9% 47% 105 5.31 $247,608 -4.08% -11.91% 8.26%
East 72 14.3% 195 4.3% 37% 48 8.01 $196,525 -6.15% -20.49% 2.51%
TOTAL CITY 2,869 5.3% 7,215 3.9% 39.76% 1,602 6.70 $263,475 -3.97% -11.76% 100.00%
SEMI-DETACHED
City Centre 542 6.7% 1,081 4.4% 50% 196 4.34 $763,400 7.35% -0.12% 29.73%
North East 197 1.5% 369 7.6% 53% 63 3.84 $294,842 -3.73% -6.73% 10.81%
North 192 23.1% 263 8.2% 73% 36 2.27 $320,342 -1.69% -4.75% 10.53%
North West 193 7.2% 317 7.1% 61% 47 2.91 $396,583 8.13% -1.51% 10.59%
West 173 4.2% 295 -2.3% 59% 49 3.43 $517,975 6.14% -0.12% 9.49%
South 267 13.1% 403 8.6% 66% 57 2.54 $329,550 -4.41% -7.60% 14.65%
South East 190 -10.0% 260 -13.9% 73% 39 2.43 $323,858 3.31% -0.97% 10.42%
East 70 1.4% 146 16.8% 48% 29 5.01 $293,625 -1.86% -3.99% 3.84%
TOTAL CITY 1,823 6.0% 3,131 3.8% 58.22% 516 3.40 $420,600 3.98% -0.41% 100.00%
ROW
City Centre 401 8.4% 887 5.6% 45% 168 5.02 $472,533 2.97% -4.82% 17.00%
North East 215 0.5% 545 24.7% 39% 104 5.81 $211,167 -2.73% -10.52% 9.11%
North 334 16.4% 598 6.0% 56% 108 3.87 $261,708 -2.11% -8.62% 14.16%
North West 294 11.4% 537 8.0% 55% 91 3.72 $310,133 -3.27% -10.04% 12.46%
West 301 20.9% 600 2.9% 50% 109 4.36 $347,875 -1.45% -7.68% 12.76%
South 414 8.4% 774 3.2% 53% 141 4.10 $270,250 -2.96% -8.23% 17.55%
South East 329 3.1% 610 -0.5% 54% 115 4.18 $295,517 -1.14% -7.33% 13.95%
East 74 23.3% 143 19.2% 52% 30 4.82 $183,675 -4.71% -17.75% 3.14%
TOTAL CITY 2,359 10.0% 4,689 6.5% 50.31% 866 4.40 $299,567 -2.95% -9.00% 100.00%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
City Centre 3,571 7.0% 7,743 4.56% 46% 1,536 5.16 $506,342 0.46% -6.99% 18.91%
North East 1,810 -1.6% 3,772 11.01% 48% 643 4.26 $353,942 -1.09% -3.13% 9.59%
North 2,312 6.8% 4,041 13.16% 57% 646 3.35 $395,400 -0.62% -4.47% 12.24%
North West 2,518 6.5% 4,033 5.47% 62% 576 2.74 $475,792 -0.31% -5.48% 13.34%
West 2,112 9.5% 3,727 2.03% 57% 611 3.47 $559,867 2.75% -2.20% 11.19%
South 3,455 8.4% 5,738 6.46% 60% 906 3.15 $412,050 -1.51% -6.50% 18.30%
South East 2,526 4.2% 4,043 -0.59% 63% 627 2.98 $423,550 -0.08% -4.80% 13.38%
East 585 6.6% 1,049 9.61% 56% 188 3.85 $302,817 -1.36% -4.65% 3.10%
TOTAL CITY 18,882 6.1% 34,130 5.77% 55% 5,734 3.64 $437,808 -0.17% -5.03% 100.00%
*District sales may not match total city sales, as some areas within the city limits are not an official community located within a specific district.
SURROUNDING AREA
REGIONAL MAP
Mountain View
Didsbury
Cremona
Carstairs
Beiseker
Rocky
View Airdrie
Irricana
Cochrane Wheatland
Calgary
Chestermere
Redwood Strathmore
Meadows
Langdon
Bragg Creek Heritage
Pointe
Black
Diamond Okotoks
Turner Blackie
Valley High
River Vulcan
Foothills
Cayley Vulcan
Wheatland Region
New listings growth exceeded the growth in Price growth will ultimately depend on:
sales, causing overall gains in inventory levels and • The supply of product in the resale area.
putting further downward pressure on pricing. • The competing new-home market.
Much like the different districts across Calgary, •T
he supply availability within Calgary, along
not all surrounding areas faced price declines. with other surrounding areas.
For example, Strathmore recorded stronger price
growth than other areas and prices have returned
to levels comparable to recent highs.
600
activity in Airdrie, 2017 levels remain comparable
to activity over the past five years, with the
400
exception of 2014’s record-high levels.
200
0
In addition to the lifestyle choices that Airdrie
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
provides, the smaller city generally benefits from
Detached Apartment Semi-Detached
Row 10 Year - Average
having product that is more affordable compared
Source: CREB®
to homes within Calgary.
Airdrie Inventory Total Residential The average benchmark price for a detached
300
The average annual benchmark price in Airdrie
200 totaled $348,958 in 2017, 1.1 per cent below last
year’s levels.
100
10 100%
9 90%
80%
8
70%
7
60%
6
50%
5 40%
4 30%
20%
3
10%
2
0%
1
-10%
0 -20%
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
Months of supply 12 month trend Y/Y benchmark price change Source: CREB®
10%
$200,000
Detached benchmark prices averaged $429,733
0%
$100,000
in 2017, nearly one per cent lower than last year
-10%
and four per cent below recent highs. Starts
-20% $0 activity in Okotoks improved in 2017, causing a
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
rise in new-home inventories.
The decline was mostly due to easing in detached Cochrane Benchmark Price and Growth Total Residential
home prices, as attached home prices improved 60% $600,000
slightly over the previous year. Higher starts and
50%
inventory of new product impacted prices in the $500,000
40%
resale market, as seen in other areas. Prices for
30% $400,000
new product eased, adding competitive pressure
20%
for the resale market and limiting the potential
$300,000
for price recovery in this market. 10%
0% $200,000
-10%
$100,000
-20%
-30% $0
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
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CREB® 2018 Economic Outlook and Regional Housing Market Forecast.
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Calgary, Alberta Fax: 403-218-3688 crebforecast.com
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