Data Required for FEMA Model and SMUG Model for Different

Hazards According to Historical Scenarios in the Matlab Thana of

Chandpur District
Floods
Sector Risk Description
Agriculture 75–80 % crop of all types of land may be damaged if flood as in 2007
takes place
Homestead 5–7 thousand houses may be inundated if flood like ‘‘1974, 1988,
1998, 2004, and 2007’’ takes place
Life and health If flood like 2007 takes place, then there may be a scarcity of pure
drinking water and sanitation facility as a result of these diseases
may occur and people might die also
Transport If flood peak is over 6 feet, then total transport system may be in
danger
Fishing Cultured fishes may ran out from ponds during the high peaks

Cyclone Induced Storm Surge

Sector Risk Description
Homestead If cyclone like SIDR or Aila induced storm surge take place during high
tide, then 500-1000 houses may be damaged
Agriculture It also can damage 20-30% of the crops

Riverbank Erosion
Sector Risk Description
Homestead If the present rate of riverbank erosion continues, then almost the entire
river-side settlement may be destroyed
Agriculture The present rate of riverbank erosion could destroy the river side
agriculture land of common people

Salinity Problem
Sector Risk Description
Level of Salinity Average electro conductivity value (745-2000 µS/cm) of Chandpur is
less severe than other coastal areas like Satkhira, Bhola, Patuakhali etc.
Agriculture Increase in soil salinity could cause significant production loss impact
for agricultural crops like Boro rice crop etc.
Livelihood Groundwater salinity could cause a negative impact on the supply of
drinking water
Criteria-oriented Characterization, Scoring System and Vulnerability Rating of Identified
Hazards in the Study Area by Integrating FEMA Model and SMUG Model

Criteria Evaluation Severity Rating (points)

History: whether an emergency event has occurred
1 time after 10 years Low 1
1 time after 2–5 years Medium 5
1 time in a year High 10
Vulnerability: of People
5% Low 1
5–30 % Medium 5
>30 % High 10
Vulnerability: of Property
5% Low 1
5–30 % Medium 5
>30 % High 10
Maximum threat: area of the community affected
10 % Low 1
10–30 % Medium 5
>30 % High 10
Probability: chances per year of an emergency
1 time after 3 years or greater Low 1
1 time after 2 years Medium 5
1 time in a year High 10

Here, evaluation criteria are modified according to hazard frequency in the Study area
Hazard Prioritization and Ranked Matrix by FEMA model
Criteria History Vulnerability Maximum Threat Probability Total Score
Hazard WF=2 WF=5 WF=10 WF=7
Floods High High High High 240
2 × 10 = 20 5 × 10 = 50 10 × 10 = 100 7 × 10 = 70
Cyclone Induced Storm Surge Medium Medium Low Medium 80
2 × 5 = 10 5 × 5 = 25 10 × 1 = 10 7 × 5 = 35
Riverbank Erosion High High Medium High 190
2 × 10 = 20 5 × 10 = 50 10 × 5 = 50 7 × 10 = 70
Salinity Problem Low Medium Low Medium 72
2×1=2 5 × 5 = 25 10 × 1 = 10 7 × 5 = 35
(WF= Weighted Factor)
FEMA Hazard Priority Model
Hazard Score Rank
Floods 240 1
Cyclone Induced Storm Surge 80 3
Riverbank Erosion 190 2
Salinity Problem 72 4
 Hazard Analysis and Characterization By Smug Model
Criteria
Hazard Seriousness Manageability Urgency Growth
Floods If flood like 1974, 1988, H Some solutions protect all M Because serious H This problem will H
1998, 2004, and 2007 takes property, e.g., vegetation cover consequences become significantly
place, then 75–80 % crop may around the house, houses are should be addressed worse, affecting
be damaged. 5–7 thousand built in high land, reconstruct as early as possible development in the
houses may be inundated the houses, road, and other flood plain
infrastructures
Cyclone If cyclone like super cyclone H Structural integrity of houses M Moderately urgent M Unknown: regional M
Induced SIDR takes place, then about and other infrastructures in during April – and
Storm 20–30 % crop and 500–1,000 May local weather pattern
Surge houses are damaged
Riverbank If the present rate of riverbank HStone cover wall beside the M Will be more urgent H If hazard reduction M
Erosion erosion continues, then almost riverbank at during rainy season measures are not
the entire river-side settlement important places. Transfer undertaken, this
and agro based lands may be houses and other hazard may become
destroyed important things are at new worse
place
Salinity Increase in soil salinity and M Evaluation and modelling of L Serious M Problem will become H
Problem ground water salinity could interactions between crop consequences significantly worse,
cause greater havoc in the types, soil types, irrigation should be addressed affecting the crop
long run in many aspects methods, soil root zone salinity as salinity rate is productions and
and groundwater salinity increasing daily lifestyle

H high, M medium and L low Status.

Hazard Prioritization and Ranked Matrix by SMUG Hazard Analysis indicators and Scenarios
Hazard Seriousness Manageability Urgency Growth Total Scenario of Total Rank
Vulnerability Score
Floods H M H H HMHH 35 1
Cyclone Induced H M M M HMMM 25 3
Storm Surge
Riverbank Erosion H M H M HMHM 30 2
Salinity Problem M L M H MLMH 21 4

Comparison of FEMA and SMUG Model

Hazard FEMA model Ranking SMUG Model Prioritization

Floods 1 1
Cyclone Induced Storm Surge 3 3
Riverbank Erosion 2 2
Salinity Problem 4 4