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1 Efficiency
Quality
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2014?” 5
Lightweight is the top emerging trend in 2014
The importance of lightweight constructions and materials has been on the increase since 2012.
Lightweight
Connectivity Efficiency
Materials
2
New Energy New Energy
Design
Cars Cars
Lightweight
Materials 8 Safety Budget Cars
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?” 6
Engine downsizing is seen as the most promising weight saver
Two important shifts in perception – the Ford F150 for aluminium and the BMW i3 for carbon fibre.
0 1 2 3
? “From your point of view, what are the most promising lightweight technologies?” 7
Content
Lightweight
Connectivity Efficiency
Materials
New Energy New Energy
Cars 3 Cars 3 Design
Lightweight
Safety Budget Cars
Materials
? “What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?” 9
Visibility of EVs is pushed by Tesla Model S and BMW i3
Out of more than 250 EV models in 2013-2014, the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 combined account for more
than 40% of all coverage. Almost every second electric vehicle story is about either one of them.
9%
6%
5,1%
4,8% 4,8% 4,8% BMW i3 Tesla Model S
4,6% 21.3% 20.4%
2,9%
3%
100% = Total e-car coverage in 2013/2014
2,0%
42%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year 100% = Total electric vehicle coverage in 2013/2014
10
PHEVs remain the most promising electric drivetrain option
However, BEV are experiencing a new momentum through premium electric vehicles.
Plug-in hybrids
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?” 11
Tesla and BMW with outstanding EV reputation
BEV gain credit in 2014 due to i3 and Tesla Model S – Premium electric vehicles might be the game changer
in the future.
1 Tesla Model S
Premium electric vehicles
2 BMW i3
Second generation
and
compact
electric vehicles
First Generation
and
low budget “Compromised“ electric vehicles
electric vehicles
2014
Expert Panel
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “How would you rate the following e-cars from a general perspective?” 12
Norway: Tesla achieves an 11% market share in March ‘14
Exponential growth of EVs in Norway; especially the Tesla Models S due to generous government subsidiaries.
12.000
› EVs in Norway
achieved a 5.6%
10.000 market share in 2013.
› No purchase tax, no
8.000
VAT, no tolls are
making EVs very
6.000
attractive.
› EV infrastructure.
2.000
› Clean Norwegian
0
energy production.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13
Norway with pioneering character regarding E-Mobility
The former benchmark market for E-Mobility, Japan, slightly loses the confidence of the expert community
and remains on one level with Germany and the USA.
Norway
Japan
Germany
UK
Fuel-Cell “Hype“ period Attention-shift to BEV Re-Focus on FCEV Comeback as “Next Generation EV“?
Most major manufacturers focus on FCEV First volume BEV appear on the Especially Hyundai/Kia continues to FCEV in series (announcements):
as battery technology is not improving fast market and the BEV hype begins. focus on FCEV and in 2014 Hyundai/Kia: 2014 | Toyota: 2015 | Honda: 2016 | Daimler: 2017
enough and the range issue as well as high Manufacturers shift their focus on announcements of affordable FCEV
costs are thought hard to be solved. battery electric vehicles rather than in series strongly increase.
continuing their FCEV strategy.
1,0%
0,8%
0,6%
0,4%
0,6%
0,6%
0,5%
0,5%
0,4% 0,2%
0,3% 0,3%
0,3%
0,1% 0,1%
100% = all automotive coverage in respective year
0,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
15
Content
“Yes, as it becomes a priority for young “It is becoming a key factor, because
buyers.” younger people do not care about
powertrains, maximum speed and
Increasingly emotional driving anymore.”
[42%]
Already
[29%]
Not yet
No [17%]
“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity is not
[12%]
critical. It's also very difficult to
communicate, given that average readers
just want to know if they can plug the “Not yet but is going to grow once they
phone in or not.” sort out the basics.”
Driver Assistance
6,4%
6%
3,9% Navigation
3%
1,5% 1,5%
Communication
0,2% 2013
0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2%
Expert Panel
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 20% 40% 60%
? 2013 expert panel: What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?” 18
The “digital” car | > 100 million lines of code
Cars are no longer only hardware, they are also software products. Cars already have more lines of code
than aircrafts and operating systems like Windows 8 or Apple Tiger.
100.000.000
90.000.000
80.000.000
F35 Fighter Jet
70.000.000
0 Space Shuttle
passive/conservative pro-active/aggressive
0 1 2 3
? “Which IT companies will be the key drivers for the “digital car”?” 20
Autonomous driving wins credit in 2014
Overall, safety related driver assistance systems are evaluated much more positively than comfort features.
Pre-Crash Systems
Intelligent Lights
Pedestrian Detection
Attention Assist
2013
Nightvision Systems
Expert Panel
Autonomous Driving
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
? “How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?” 21
Autonomous cars are expected within the next 5 years
The world car experts are anticipating autonomous cars in series production within the next five years.
5 Years
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
? “When do you expect to see fully autonomous driving cars in series production?” 22
Key markets for autonomous driving are USA, Germany, Japan
Due to high costs and the need for infrastructure, autonomous driving will be strongly pushed by the most
developed car markets.
USA
USA, Germany and Japan are clearly
Germany seen as the key markets for
autonomous driving.
Japan
UK
France
China
Italy
2014
Spain Expert Panel
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Infrastructure Investments
Consumer Acceptance
Integrity of Technology
0 1 2 3
? “How important are the following challenges enabling autonomous driving from your point of view?” 24
Safety is key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving
However, extra costs are seen as the second most important factor to clear the way for autonomous cars.
Extra cost
Comfort
Increased productivity City motorists in Europe and the US waste Ø 60-80 hours
(work while driving) per year in congestion.
Data protection
0 1 2 3
? “How important are the following factors from your point of view regarding the consumer acceptance of autonomous driving?” 25
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