UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY,

LAHORE

M.Sc. THESIS PROPOSAL

LANDSLIDE HAZARAD MAPPING OF BALAKOT, KAGHAN

AND NARAN AREAS, PAKISTAN

Name: Shakirullah
Registration No: 2016-MS-GE-10
Date of Registration: 08 FEB 2016
Part Time / Full Time: Full Time
Session: 2016
Supervisor

Dr. Muhammad Farooq Ahmed

Department of Geological Engineering

INTRODUCTION

Landslides are recognized as a major disaster in mountainous region and responsible for huge
social and economic losses. After the earthquake and flood the landslides are considered as
third in the list of natural hazard in terms of degree of hazard (Feizizadeh and Blaschke
2014). Landslides occur probably at any landform, provided that the existing condition are
favorable to long-term instability (Ahmed and Rogers 2015). Particularly, earthquake-
induced landslides are significant threats for the inhabitants of mountain areas in terms of
casualties, infrastructure damages, and destruction of property (Xu et al. 2012). Pakistan has
been frequently subjected to a variety of natural hazards including landslides (Ahmed et al.
2016). The main factors which engendered the landslides varies from one site to another.
Most of the time landslides occur due to the combined effect of heavy rainfall and high
seismicity. The environmental factors those effect the movement include: steep slopes,
rugged topography, lack of vegetation or deforestation, fragile geological set up, and
anthropogenic interference (Ahmed and Rogers 2015). Moreover, several studies have
regarded additional parameters such as lineaments, topographic wetness index (TWI),
distance to road or settlements, normalized difference vegetation index, and soil types for
susceptibility mapping (Yilmaz et al. 2010; Pradhan and Lee 2010).

In developing countries such as Pakistan, the risk produced by landslide disaster is not
addressed in an appropriate manner due to lack of economic resources and inaccessibility to
the remote areas (Rogers et al. 2016). High rate of winter snow fall and subsequent snow and
glacier melting in summer cause number to slides every year in the Balakot, Kaghan and
Naran valleys, those are significant tourist spots so it is important to prepare landslide hazard
maps of these region to highlight the areas with high risk of landslide susceptibility. During
the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, a large number of earthquake induced landslides were
triggered in the in Balakot and Kashmir region (Basharat and Rohn 2015) that caused
thousands of causalities and huge property loss. There were also number of slopes those
became unstable due to the earthquake loading. Later they were failed because of the
subsequent rain water infiltration..The Hattian Bala rock avalanche was the largest landslide
dam formed in the near vicinity of the study area (Basharat et al. 2012). The preparation of
landslide hazard maps, using remote sensing and ArcGIS tools will guide to identify the
critical zones, which are prone to the landsliding.
PROBLEM STATEMENT

Landsliding is a serious concern in the northern areas of Pakistan where landslides mostly
occur owing to snow melting, glacier movement and seasonal rainfall during the summer
time. The study area is situated in mightiest Himalaya Mountain Range where catastrophic
landslides occur on frequent basis. Therefore it is utmost important to assemble landslide
inventory and susceptibility maps of Balakot, Kaghan and Naran areas on regional scale
because of its significance as transportation for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
project and hydrologic importance to the region for flood control, irrigation, and
hydroelectric power generation.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES:

The proposed research work aims to assemble landslide inventory and susceptibility maps of
Balakot, Kaghan and Naran areas on regional scale by using inexpensive GIS and Remote
Sensing Tools and data. The resultant landslide hazard maps of the study area will be served
as guide map for more detailed analysis for specific project, such as landslide mitigation,
embankment dams, highways and bridges.

DATA AND METHODOLOGY:

GIS is an excellent alternative of conventional mapping technique that is used in monitoring,

investigating, assessing and mapping geo-hazards. The present study will be performed in 2
of the following steps.

1. Landslide Inventory Mapping of Study Area

Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) global digital
elevation model v2 (GDEM2) tiles of the Balakot, Kaghan and Naran areas will be acquired
from an online website (http://www.jspacesystems.or.jp/ersdac/GDEM//index.html). The
GDEM data tiles will be then georeferenced to projected UTM Zone 43N, using ENVI 4.8
(Environment for Visual Information Solutions) software. A stitched shaded topographic map
of the study area will be constructed by employing 40 m topographic contours maps, in
combination with 30 m resolution ASTER DEM data. Furthermore the shaded topographic
map will be divided into smaller subsections and printed on 36 x 48 inches sheets to aid
visual delineation of landslide related features. Based on the resolution of topographic maps
used, the slides more than 500 m high from crest-to-toe could only be delineated with any
meaningful confidence i.e. the expression of minimum five consecutive contour intervals are
required for landslide related features identification (Ahmed and Rogers 2014; Ahmed et al.
2016).

The landslides screening process will be started with the visual identification and delineation
of anomalous topographic features expressive of previous large-scale landslide movements in
the study areas and adjacent areas. A careful examination of topographic patterns will be
conducted in order to look for anomalies and irregularities which do not show on adjacent
slopes or which do not express typical underlying geologic and structural contacts (Ahmed et
al. 2015). In some situations, the parallel drainage network may help in identifying the large
features, such as detachment complexes and landslides (Chung and Rogers 2010). The major
topographic recognition keys include; anamoulos drainage patterns, crenulated contours,
isolated topographic benches, divergent contours, isolated topographic knobs, arcuate
headscarp areas and extended topographic ridges (Couture et al. 2011; Ahmed and Rogers
2014; Ahmed et al. 2016).

2. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Study Area

The 2nd phase of this proposed research work will include the preparation of landslide
susceptibility map of the area under study. The common statistical models used in the
preparation of susceptibility mapping are the logistic regression models, fuzzy logic, artificial
neural network models, and weighted overlay analysis, bivariate and multivariate statistical
methods (Yilmaz et al. 2010; Kayastha et al. 2013; Kanwel et al. 2016; Feizizadeh and
Blaschke 2013; Ahmed et al. 2014). The selection of the suitable technique strongly depends
on the nature of the problem, resolution and data availability. In this study Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy logic methods will be incorporated with ArcGIS tools to
generate landslide hazard map of study area. The AHP method is used to derive the weights
associated with suitability/attribute map layers. Later the weights can be combined with the
attribute map layers. AHP can deal with complex decision making and also useful for
checking the consistency of the evaluation measures as suggested by the decision makers.
AHP builds a hierarchy of decision criteria through pairwise comparison of each possible
criterion pair (Nefeslioglu HA et al. 2008).

The idea of fuzzy logic is to consider the spatial objects on a map as member of a sets. In the
fuzzy set theory, membership can take on any value between 0 and 1 reflecting the degree of
certainty of membership. The fuzzy set theory employs the idea of a membership function
that expresses the degree of membership with respect to some attribute of interest. The major
advantage of the fuzzy logic approach is the effective transformation of expert knowledge
into fuzzy membership degree functions for susceptibility analyses (Feizizadeh and Blaschke
2013; Ahmad et al. 2014; Rogers et al. 2016). Landslide conditioning factors such as slope,
slope angle, elevation, drainage density, aspect, and curvature raster maps will be prepared
from the ASTER DEM in ArcGIS software. The normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI) map will be obtain from ETM+ Landsat satellite image. The other map layers
including land use map, Lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, rainfall raster,
and seismic hazard map will be digitized from the existing maps to use them in the analysis.

The reliability of such type of hazard maps highly depends upon the availability of past
landslide records and field observations. The importance of a map is directly related to the
information content provided on it, which is dependent on the types of results achieved, their
quality, and the degree to which the information is unique for the area under study (Ahmed et
al. 2014). The comparison of this study will be made with the historically available
documented and recorded slides in the region. The outcomes of this landslide hazard study
will also be subjected to field verification.

UTILIZATION OF RESEARCH

Landslide hazard mapping studies are accepted as the first stage of landslide hazard
mitigation efforts. Such type of reconnaissance-level landslide hazard maps are intended to
be initial hazard evaluations, often undertaken in mountainous areas prior to any development
involving significant investment. The effective utilization of these maps can considerably
reduce damage potential, and risk associated with landslides.
Research Time Table

Time (Week)
Work Flow
1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15-16

Literature Survey

Data and Material

Preparation of
Landslide Hazarad
maps

Validation (Site
Visit)

Compilation of
Thesis

Viva Voce
BUDGET ESTIMATION

 ArcGIS and Envi softwares are available in the computer lab of the Department of
Geological Engineering.

 Remote Sensing data is easily available/least expensive (online Sources)

 Field Visits for Validation of Study = Rs. 35,000/-

 Compilation of Thesis & Miscellaneous Expanses = Rs. 5,000/-

Total = Rs. 40,000/-

REFERENCES

Ahmed, M. F., Rogers, J. D., & Ismail, E. H. (2014). A regional level preliminary landslide
susceptibility study of the upper Indus river basin. European Journal of Remote
Sensing, 47(1), 343-373.

Ahmed, M. F., & Rogers, J. D. (2015). Regional level landslide inventory maps of the Shyok
River watershed, Northern Pakistan. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the
Environment, 75(2), 563-574.

Ahmed, B. (2015). Landslide susceptibility mapping using multi-criteria evaluation

techniques in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Landslides, 12(6),
1077-1095.

Ahmed, M. F., Rogers, J. D., & Bakar, M. Z. A. (2016). Hunza river watershed landslide and
related features inventory mapping. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(6), 523.

Basharat, M. (2012). The distribution, characteristics and behaviour of mass movements

triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake 2005, NW Himalaya, Pakistan.

Basharat, M., & Rohn, J. (2015). Effects of volume on travel distance of mass movements
triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, in the Northeast Himalayas of
Pakistan. Natural Hazards, 77(1), 273-292.

Chung, J. W., & Rogers, J. D. (2010). GIS-based virtual geotechnical database for the St.
Louis metro area. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience, 16(2), 143-162.

Couture, R. (2011). Landslide Terminology-National Technical Guidelines and Best Practices

on Landslides. Geological Survey of Canada, 12.

Feizizadeh, B., & Blaschke, T. (2013). GIS-multicriteria decision analysis for landslide
susceptibility mapping: comparing three methods for the Urmia lake basin, Iran.
Natural hazards, 65(3), 2105-2128.

Feizizadeh, B., & Blaschke, T. (2014). An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach for
GIS-based multicriteria landslide susceptibility mapping. International Journal of
Geographical Information Science, 28(3), 610-638.
Kayastha, P., Bijukchhen, S. M., Dhital, M. R., & De Smedt, F. (2013). GIS based landslide
susceptibility mapping using a fuzzy logic approach: A case study from Ghurmi-
Dhad Khola area, Eastern Nepal. Journal of the Geological Society of India, 82(3),
249-261.

Kanwal, S., Atif, S., & Shafiq, M. (2016). GIS based landslide susceptibility mapping of
northern areas of Pakistan, a case study of Shigar and Shyok Basins. Geomatics,
Natural Hazards and Risk, 63(2): 965-996.

Lee, S., & Sambath, T. (2013). Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area,
Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Environmental
Geology, 50(6), 847-855.

Nefeslioglu, H. A., Gokceoglu, C., & Sonmez, H. (2008). An assessment on the use of
logistic regression and artificial neural networks with different sampling strategies
for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. Engineering Geology, 97(3),
171-191.

Pradhan, B., & Lee, S. (2010). Landslide susceptibility assessment and factor effect analysis:
backpropagation artificial neural networks and their comparison with frequency
ratio and bivariate logistic regression modelling. Environmental Modelling &
Software, 25(6), 747-759.

Rogers, J. D., Ahmed, M. F., & Ismail, E. H. (2016). Landslide Susceptibility Screening
Using Wind-Driven Rainfall. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience, 22(4),
297-318.

Xu, C., Xu, X., Lee, Y. H., Tan, X., Yu, G., & Dai, F. (2012). The 2010 Yushu earthquake
triggered landslide hazard mapping using GIS and weight of evidence modeling.
Environmental Earth Sciences, 66(6), 1603-1616.

Yilmaz, I. (2010). Comparison of landslide susceptibility mapping methodologies for

Koyulhisar, Turkey: conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural
networks, and support vector machine. Environmental Earth Sciences, 61(4), 821-
836.
Comments of Supervisor:

Signature of Supervisor Signature of Student

(Dr. Muhammad Farooq Ahmed) (Shakirullah)

Endst. No. Univ./_______________ Dated: _______________

The above proposal duly recommended by the Post-Graduate Committee in

Geological Engineering Department in its meeting held on 08/11/2017 is forwarded through
Dean, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Engineering to the Director of Research for obtaining
the approval of the Vice-Chancellor.

_____________________ _____________________________
Dean of Faculty ESE (Chairman)
Department of Geological Engineering