DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK

MARCH 2017
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - SUMMARY
• a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge
• Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4 % to 83.5 Mn T in
February, mainly due to restocking efforts. Stockpiles grew by a
8.2 % in February, the largest month-on-month increase in 3
years.
• TC rates increased from an average of USD 11.4 k per day in
February to a current USD 14 k per day.
• Restocking is a clear short term development, but other medium
to long term developments could contribute to the bull market.
• New iron ore from Vale’s recently opened S11D mine should
contribute to softening iron ore prices, thus increasing the appeal
of imports for Chinese buyers.
• In March 2016, the Capesize orderbook totalled 7 % of the fleet,
while the ratio currently stands at 2 %. Last year, the capesize
fleet shrunk by 0.1 per cent to 193.4 Mn Dwt.
• But VLOC orderbook at 23.1 Mn Dwt in total
• The Panamax and Kamsarmax segments also trending positive,
driven largely by an increase in cargoes out of South America
carrying grain, and price differences in coal between the Chinese
domestic market and the import market, with imports trading at
up to a 10 per cent discount.
• The recent ban on coal imports from North Korea is expected to
contribute to a firming in demand for the majority of 2017. The
country supplies 22.8 Mn tonnes of anthracite to China, about 85
% of Chinese anthracite imports. We expect the ban to create 1.6
% extra demand growth for the segment in 2017.
• Handysizes and smaller segments also benefitting from the
current improvements in the market. 1 year TC rates have
increased 19.2 % to USD 7,750 and 26.6 % to USD 9,500 for
Handysizes and Supramaxes respectively since the start of the
year. For Supra’s this is the highest rate since end August 2015.
• The short term nature of many of the above factors may well lead
to an overinflated sentiment that runs ahead of fundamentals.
• Supply side discipline essential for market recovery. Renewed
newbuilding activity could compromise and prolong any
sustainable improvement in the market.
• Uncertainty on upcoming enforcement of the IMO’s Ballast Water
Management convention, set to happen on September 8 2017.
• 659 vessels will enter the demolition candidate pool (ships 20
years and older).
• Low sulphur regulations that are set to enter into force in 2020
will add to the cost of operations.
2
ASSUMPTIONS FOR AFFINITY’S FORECASTS
SUPPLY
Dry cargo contracting to stay slow
Dry cargo demolitions to continue
Removals from Orderbook (approx. 11.0 Mn Dwt in 2016) to continue as yards fail and orders are renegotiated or cancelled
Ballast Water Treatment System to reduce effective lifespan of bulk carriers to around 22 years compared to a long-run average of 25

- Estimated deliveries by size band

Size / 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mn Dwt

Handy / Supra / Ultramax 13.5 4.2 5.3 5.9 5.7

Panamax / Kamsarmax 10.8 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.1

Capesize 15.2 14.9 11.2 5.8 7.7

DEMAND
Base case: only marginal changes in demand growth going forward to 2021.
Owners should consider this before investing

3
SUPPLY MUST REACT TO FLAT DEMAND GROWTH FOR
DRY CARGO OWNERS TO SURVIVE

Combined bulk carrier fleet supply and demand scenarios to 2021

900
Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue ships
cancelled, 25 yr life
800
Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue ships
cancelled, 22 yr life,
700

Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue ships

Mn Dwt

600 cancelled, 22 yr life, 10% slow steaming

2011 on
Demand at 0% growth
500

Demand growth at historic average

400 levels

Demand at -2% growth

300
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Our base case is that the dry cargo markets will see an
aggregate of zero demand growth out to 2021. Even if
demand growth returns to its historic average of 4.4%
per annum, owners must continue to manage supply.
Thus our base case supply scenario envisages 30%
slippage in the orderbook, the cancellation of overdue
orders, slow steaming being a permanent fixture and
the average life of a bulker being reduced to 22 years
by the Ballast Water Management Convention (comes
into force 8 September 2017). In this case, supply
growth levels off to zero with the fleet at around 700
Mn Dwt, giving steady utilisation of around 80%,
slightly above the long term average of 78%.
4
 …WHEN EXPRESSED AS CAPACITY UTILISATION, THERE ARE CLEAR
IMPLICATIONS FOR FREIGHT RATES…
Combined all dry bulk capacity utilisation scenarios to 2021

Base Case Capacity Utllisation historic average utilisation rate BDI

100% 8,000

95%
7,000
90%
6,000
CAPACITY UTILISATION

85%
5,000
80%

BDI
75% 4,000

70%
3,000
65%
2,000
60%
1,000
55%

50% -
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

The BDI averaged 673 points in 2016, positional rather than fundamental.
and while the market has improved Prospects for the BDI remain
since then (average BDI for 2017 YTD underwhelming even with strict
is 870) market movements remain supply-side discipline.
5
CAPESIZE:

Capesize utilisation scenarios

95%

90%
Best Case
Capacity
85%
Utllisation

80% Base Case

Capacity
Utilisation
75%

Worst Case
70% Capacity
utilisation

65%

60%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Our base case includes cancellation of all overdue
orders, accounts for 30% slippage in delivery
schedules, assumes all ships sail at 12.5 knots on
average, and that average economic life is 22
years. The base case also assumes 2% annual
demand growth for iron ore, however this will
mostly be taken up by the VLOC segment. The step
down in utilisation is a consequence of VLOC
deliveries in 2017. VLOC orders dominated
contracting Dwt in 2016.
6
PANAMAX / KAMSARMAX:

Panamax / Kamsarmax utilisation base case

100%

95%
Best case
90% Capacity
Utilisation
85%
Base Case
Capacity
80%
Utllisation
75% Worst
Case
70% Capacity
utilisation
65%

60%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Panamax utilisation in our model is a function of the orderbook remains onerous and real
zero demand growth and the same supply side improvement will only happen when demolitions
constraints as per Capesizes. While the prospect happen to ships in their mid-teens on average.
for grain and coal remain positive in the near term,

7
HANDY / SUPRA / ULTRAMAX:

Utilisation base case

105%

100%

95% Best case

Capacity
90% Utilisation
85%
Base Case
80% Capacity
Utllisation
75%
Worst Case
70%
Capacity
65% utilisation

60%

55%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Prospects for the geared bulk carrier fleet are less
depressing on the basis that demand continues to
be seen to grow especially in the minor bulks, grain
and coal (for now; long term prospects for coal
remain weak), supporting these ship types, which
also steal cargo from the larger and older Panamax
bulkers. Forecasting freight markets remains a
difficult exercise however as the geared bulker
markets continue to evolve with ship sizes. Our
best guess for 2017: watch copper, grains and
coke, beware steel products tariffs, look for
positional opportunities. It is an operators’ market.

8
 DEMAND TO ONLY INCREASE
MARGINALLY BY THE END OF DECADE

March 2017
 Mn Tonnes March 2017

0
40
60
80
120
140

20
100
Mar 2006
Jul 2006
Dry Bulk Market Outlook

Nov 2006
Mar 2007
Jul 2007
Nov 2007
Mar 2008
Jul 2008
Nov 2008
Mar 2009
Jul 2009
Nov 2009
Mar 2010
Jul 2010
Nov 2010
Mar 2011
Jul 2011
Nov 2011
WEEKLY CHINESE IRON ORE INVENTORIES

Mar 2012
Jul 2012
Nov 2012
Mar 2013
Jul 2013
Nov 2013
Mar 2014
Jul 2014
Nov 2014
Mar 2015
Jul 2015
Nov 2015
Mar 2016
Jul 2016
Nov 2016
Mar 2017
10
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS

Chinese Iron Ore Imports

Iron ore imports to China have
1,200
been steadily increasing due to
high availability of cheap ore
from Australia and Brazil. This
despite a reduction in steel
1,000
making capacity, supported by
capacity cuts in China’s domestic
iron ore production.
800
Chinese iron ore is of low quality
relative to imports, and often
vastly more expensive to extract
and transport to its end user.
Mn T

600

400

200

0
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD 2017
11
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

INDIAN COAL CONSUMPTION

Percentage of Indian Urbanised Population / Coal Consumption
400 Indian energy consumption is on
the rise and is closely correlated
to its urbanised population.
350
should India’s urbanisation rate
continue at the current pace,
300
which for the past decade has
R² = 0.9899 been 1.14 per cent per year, we
Coal Consumption (Mn T)

250
can expect India’s coal
consumption to increase to
between 450 and 500 Mn tonnes
200 by 2020 and approximately 380
Mn tonnes by 2017. That’s up 5.5
per cent from 2014 which saw
150 360 Mn tonnes consumed.

However, a mounting problem

100 with pollution spurring policy
changes and the increasing
availability of renewable energy
50 sources may see this relationship
weaken.

0
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
% Urbanised Population

12
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

SEABORNE COAL BY VESSEL CATEGORY

Graph shows what percentage of coal trade is carried on respective vessel types.

30%

25%

20%
Percentage

15%

10%

5%

0%
Handysize Supramax Ultramax Panamax Kamsarmax PostPanamax SmallCape ModernCape Newcastlemax VLOC

13
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

SEABORNE IRON ORE BY VESSEL CATEGORY

Graph shows what percentage of iron ore trade is carried on respective vessel types.

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%
Percentage

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Handysize Supramax Ultramax Panamax Kamsarmax Post Panamax Small Cape Modern Cape Newcastlemax VLOC

14
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

SEABORNE TRADE DEVELOPMENT

5,000

Combined % growth for 2016 is estimated

to have been around 3% and is expected to
average about 1% towards the end of the
decade.
3,750
Mn T

2,500

1,250

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Iron Ore Coal Grain Soybean Minor Bulk

15
Dry Bulk Market Outlook
March 2017

TONNE MILE GROWTH

20

18

16

14

12
Tr Tonne Miles

10

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Iron Ore Coal Grain & Agricultural Products

16
L I M I T E D CO N T R AC T I N G FO R N B
D E L I V E R I ES S E T TO D EC L I N E
ST RO N G D E M O L I T I O N S TO L A ST

March 2017
CONTRACTING AND DEMOLITION: HOPE FOR THE FUTURE
Graphs show vessel contracting and demolitions for vessels ranging from 10,000 Dwt and upwards.

All Bulker Contracting All Dry Demolitions

Number of Ships Mn Dwt Number of Ships Mn Dwt

1400 140.0 600 35

1200 120.0 30
500

1000 100.0 25
400
Number of Ships

Number of Ships
800 80.0 20

Mn Dwt

Mn Dwt
300
600 60.0 15

200
400 40.0 10

100
200 20.0 5

0 0.0 0 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD 2017

YTD 2017
18
 DRY BULK FLEET AGE GROUPS
Table showing all size types by age in number of ships.

Dry Bulk Fleet By Number of Ships

Orderbook
00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+ Total Orderbook
of which ordered years years years years years years Fleet as % of Total Fleet
before 2014

VLOC 69 3 63 93 6 2 40 16 220 31%

Newcastlemax 36 5 121 65 43 0 3 0 232 16%

Capesize 27 8 211 579 180 83 35 6 1094 2%

Small Capesize 1 1 24 96 3 3 0 1 127 1%

PostPanamax 35 1 124 266 60 28 8 4 490 7%

Panamax 23 14 150 297 266 282 134 29 1158 2%

Kamsarmax 98 5 404 356 55 0 0 0 815 12%

Ultramax 184 38 535 69 0 0 0 0 604 30%

Supramax 26 5 261 1148 363 142 0 0 1914 1%

Handymax 14 3 112 68 21 131 169 52 553 3%

Handysize 162 24 639 1197 278 229 223 194 2760 6%

Total Fleet 675 107 2644 4234 1275 900 612 302 9967 7%

% of Total Fleet 7% 1.1% 27% 42% 13% 9% 6% 3%

19
 DRY BULK FLEET AGE GROUPS
Table showing all size types by age in Mn Dwt.

Dry Bulk Fleet By Mn Dwt

Orderbook Total Orderbook
00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+
of which ordered years years years years years years
Fleet as % of Total Fleet
before 2014
VLOC 23.13 0.79 17.95 28.16 1.48 0.46 11.16 4.38 63.59 36%
Newcastlemax 7.49 1.04 25.11 13.44 8.80 0.00 0.62 0.00 47.98 16%
Capesize 4.80 1.41 37.86 103.31 31.67 14.17 5.43 0.91 193.36 2%

Small Capesize 0.11 0.11 2.69 10.90 0.31 0.32 0.00 0.11 14.33 1%
PostPanamax 2.92 0.07 10.72 24.49 5.31 2.33 0.73 0.36 43.93 7%

Panamax 1.66 1.09 11.34 22.67 20.19 20.92 9.48 1.92 86.53 2%
Kamsarmax 8.00 0.41 33.03 29.13 4.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.70 12%
Ultramax 11.52 2.41 33.38 4.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.64 31%
Supramax 1.46 0.28 14.79 64.82 19.63 7.33 0.00 0.00 106.57 1%
Handymax 0.61 0.13 5.15 3.12 0.99 6.13 7.67 2.26 25.33 2%
Handysize 5.89 0.84 22.47 36.85 8.01 6.29 5.70 4.92 84.24 7%

Total Fleet 67.60 8.57 214.49 341.16 100.92 57.96 40.79 14.88 770.20 9%

% of Total Fleet 9% 1.1% 28% 44% 13% 8% 5% 2%

20
DRY BULK CUMULATIVE FLEET

Including dry bulk carriers over 10,000 Dwt

→ While the orderbook for 2017 is very large, high

Dry Bulk Fleet Profile
levels of slippage are expected. The low
120 orderbook for 2018 is indicative of the
100 diminished appetite for new tonnage, as the
market struggles with a slump on the demand
80
Mn DWT

side.
60
40 → Considering that around 47 Mn Dwt delivered in
2016 vs the more than 60 Mn Dwt originally
20
scheduled to get delivered, it seems unlikely that
0 all the 43 Mn Dwt scheduled to deliver in the
1980
1982
1984

1988
1990
1992

1996
1998

2002
2004
2006

2010
2012
2014

2018
2020
1986

1994

2000

2008

2016
balance of the year will in fact arrive on time. If
shipyard performance in 2016 is consistent, then
Additions Removals %Change over one third of this year’s scheduled deliveries
will be pushed back to later years or dropped
1500 30%
altogether.
1000 20% →
Number of Ships

The dry bulk fleet saw a rapid expansion following

the large scale ordering at the peak in 2008. Fleet
500 10%
growth has slowed down significantly in line with
0 0% the current condition of the freight market,
predominately due to high levels of demolition
-500 -10% and minimal contracting activity.

-1000 -20%
1960

1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994

2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1962
1964

1978
1980
1982

1996
1998

2012
2014
2016

21
KAMSARMAX

The Kamsarmax segment is defined as vessels between 80,000Dwt and 84,999 Dwt with a beam less than 32.26, a LoA less than 236m and a draft
less than 21m.

→ The average fleet age in the Kamsarmax segment

Kamsarmax Fleet Profile
is 4.6 years.
16
14
→ A large volume of deliveries in 2012 can be
12
attributed to heavy investment in the sector prior
Mn DWT

10
8 to the collapse of the freight markets in the latter
6 part of 2008, as well as delays and rescheduled
4 deliveries.
2
0
2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019
2007

2011

2016
Fleet Orderbook
200
Number of Ships

150

100

50

0
2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019
2007

2011

2016

22
PANAMAX

The graphs show the development of the Panamax segment with the year on year percentage change in fleet size.

Panamax Fleet Development → This data shows the development of the Panamax
fleet, taking into account all capacity added to the
10 20%
8 16%
sector and deletions.
6 12%
4 → Recent high demolition activity has led to
8%
2 negative fleet growth in the Panamax sector.
Mn DWT

4%
0 January 2017 continues that trend, but at a lower
0%
-2
-4% intensity, with 0.5 Mn Dwt scrapped; this is 6 per
-4
-6 -8% cent of total Panamax demolitions in 2016. This
-8 -12% is partially due to the increased popularity of the
-10 -16% Kamsarmax segment.
-12 -20%
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968

1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984

1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000

2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1970
1972

1986
1988

2002
2004
Additions Deletions %Change
150 40%
100 30%
Number of Ships

50 20%
10%
0
0%
-50
-10%
-100 -20%
-150 -30%
-200 -40%
1960
1962
1964
1966

1970
1972

1976
1978
1980
1982

1986
1988

1992
1994
1996
1998

2002
2004

2008
2010
2012
2014
1968

1974

1984

1990

2000

2006

2016

23
ULTRAMAX

Ultramax is defined as 60,000 to 69,999 Dwt, built after 2009, and are geared, usually 5 hold / 5 hatch arrangement and less than 200m LOA.

→ The Dry Bulk fleet is constantly evolving, thus the

Ultramax sector only started being delivered from
Ultramax Fleet Profile
2010 onwards.
14
12 → The current orderbook accounts for 30per cent of
the current fleet.
10
Mn DWT

8
6
4
2
0
2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
2011

2012

2019
Fleet Orderbook
250
200
Number of Ships

150
100
50
0
2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
2011

2012

2019

24
HANDYMAX

The graphs show the development of the Handymax fleet, with year on year additions and deletions as well as the annual percentage change.

→ These graphs clearly show how demolition figures

Handymax Fleet Development
in this segment spiked as a result of international
6 30% financial turmoil; noticeably in 1986 and more
4 recently in the aftermath of the 2008 financial
20%
crisis, the latter of which has resulted in
2
sustained negative growth since 2009.
Mn DWT

10%
0
0% → The fleet is also shrinking as bulk carrier designs
-2
have evolved into Supramax and Ultramax.
-4 -10%

-6 -20%
1976
1978
1980
1982

1986

1990

1994

1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

2016
1984

1988

1992

1996

2014
Additions Removals %Change
100 30%
24%
18%
NUmber of Ships

50
12%
6%
0 0%
-6%
-12%
-50
-18%
-24%
-100 -30%
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986

1990
1992

1996
1998

2002
2004
2006

2010
2012

2016
1988

1994

2000

2008

2014

25
DRY BULK SLIPPAGE BY SIZE BAND – START OF PERIOD
Slippage and Cancellations.

80%
2013 2014 2015 2016
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

26
EARNINGS IMPROVING
BUT STILL RATHER LOW

March 2017
 USD / Day

-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan-04
Jun-04
Nov-04
Apr-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jul-06
Dec-06
May-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
CAPESIZE TC RATES AND BCI

Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10

1YR TC
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11

BCI
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000

BCI 4/5TC
28
PANAMAX TC RATES AND BPI

90,000 12,000

80,000
10,000
70,000

60,000 8,000

50,000
USD / Day

BPI
6,000
40,000

30,000 4,000

20,000
2,000
10,000

- -

1YR TC BPI
29
 USD / Day

-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
SUPRAMAX TC RATES AND BSI

Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11

1YR TC
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12

BSI
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
5,000
6,000
7,000

4,000

BSI
30
 USD / Day

-
5,000
10,000
15,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000

20,000
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
HANDYSIZE TC RATES AND BHSI

Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11

1YR TC
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12

BHSI
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,500
3,000
3,500

2,000

BHSI
31
RECOVERY IN 5 YO PRICES FOR
PANAMAX AND HANDYSIZE

March 2017
PANAMAX ASSET VALUES

120

100

80
Mn USD

60

40

20

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Resale 5 YO 10 YO 15 YO
33
HANDYSIZE ASSET VALUES

60

50

40
Mn USD

30

20

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NB Resale 5 YO 10 YO
34
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35
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whatsoever without the written permission of Affinity (Shipping) LLP.
Affinity (Shipping) LLP accepts no liability to any third parties
whatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full report
including all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may be
taken out of context.
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