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October 2012

Supply Chain Management in High-tech Supervisors


prof.dr. A.G. de Kok , TU/e

and Capital Goods Industries dr. Z. Atan, TU/e

Company
MBA MSc Roberto Uquillas
Doctoral Candidate 1st Year

Crises* and Cycles Defining the Industry Cycles and Causality


Semiconductor Industry *Brown & Linden (2009) Tan & Mathews (2010) Equipment Races
Tan (2011)
Dynamics due to Prisoner’s
Dilemma

Industry
Concentration

Growth

China

2010s

1976 Q1

2006 Q1
Time
Cycle ~Period [Y] Description
Kitchin <5 Inventory Cycle
Juglar 7-11 Fixed Investment Cycle

Semiconductor Equipment Key Functional & Structural Attributes Other Relevant Attributes
Supply Chain 7
Standard Deviation of

 Availability of future demands: forecasted 6


Forecast Error 


5
Demand curve: cyclical
4
 Products life cycle: 2-5 years 3

 Engineering changes during life cycle: manifold 2

 Number of product types: few 1

 Degree of customization: few 0


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

 Bill of materials: convergent Planning Horizon h


Time Buffer
 Bottlenecks in production: capacity during upturn

 Location of decoupling points: assemble/configure to


order
 Major constraints: material availability, capacity during
ramp-up and cycle peak
 Type of information exchanged: forecast & orders

Stock Buffer

Research Topics Research Fields Multi-item Multi-echelon Research Topics


 Production Control  Production and inventory models with non-stationary demand.
 Inventory Management  Hierarchical planning models taking into account simultaneous
optimization of inventory and capacity.
 Forecast models considering Kitchin cycle oriented to smooth
General Problem
production.
 How to cope with the uncertainty to achieve a desired
 Fulfillment capabilities given available materials and resources.
service level with a minimum cost?
14

Main Uncertainties 12

 Demand: Business Cycles and Short Term


10

 Supply: Cycle Time, Quality, Suppliers


Machines

Forecast Error
8
Current Target
6 Proposed Target
Scope Proposed Buffer Plan
4
 Life cycle phase of products: Excluded discontinued or Buffer Plan
2
obsolete
 Uncertainties: Demand and Supply 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

 Stages in the chain: From suppliers to customer Planning Horizon h

r.e.uquillas.andrade@tue.nl, T +31612146719
/ School of Industrial Engineering www.linkedin.com/in/robertouquillas