1 = exp µ + σ 2 2 Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula Change of Measure
Given a probability measure (think probability distribution), a
random variable that is positive and integrates to one defines a change of measure. In other words, suppose we have a probability measure P and a random variable ξ such that E P [ξ ] = 1. Then we can define a new probability measure Q through ξ by Z Q (A) = ξ dP A We can think of ξ as a redistribution of probability weights from P to Q. Hence it’s called “change of measure” and denoted dQ dP .
Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula
Normality-Preserving Change of Measure Now, there is a special class of random variables called exponential martingales that, as change of measures, preserve normality. In more concrete terms, suppose probability measure P is given by the normal distribution N µ P , σ 2 . Then, if dQ dP is an exponential martingale, then the new probability measure Q is also normally distributed, with a Q different mean but with the same variance, N µ , σ . 2
Such exponential martingales take on the form
1 ξ = exp −ηε P − η 2 2 for arbitrary numbers η (later in Lecture Notes 2, we’ll see that η can be stochastic processes as well). Furthermore, we know the exact relationship between µ P and µ Q : µ P − µ Q = ησ (the previous notes had a typo and had σ 2 instead of σ ). Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula Black-Scholes Formula
Suppose under Q (the risk-neutral measure), the stock return
is given by St+1 1 2 Q = exp r − σ + σ ε St 2 where ε Q ∼ N (0, 1) under the Q-measure. Let’s derive the Black-Scholes formula in this simple setting. Suppose S0 = 1 and we have a call option that matures at T = 1 with a strike price K . The price of this call option is
C = e −r E Q [max (S1 − K , 0)]
Z ∞ −r =e (S1 − K ) dQ S =K 1 Z ∞ Z ∞ −r −r =e S1 dQ − e KdQ S1 =K S1 =K
Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula
Continued Call the first term C1 and the second term C2 . Let’s calculate them separately. Z ∞ −r C1 = e S1 dQ S1 =K σ2
1 1 Q Z ∞ 2 = ln K −r + σ 2 √ exp − ε − σ dε σ 2 2π 2 2 ! ln K − r + σ2 =Φ σ− σ 2 ! − ln K + r + σ2 =Φ σ Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula Continued Now for C2 Z ∞ −r C2 = e KdQ S1 =K
1 1 Q 2 Z ∞ −r 2 K √ =e ln K −r + σ2 exp − ε dε σ 2π 2
1 1 Q 2 Z ∞ −r = e K ln K −r + σ 2 √ exp − ε dε σ 2 2π 2 σ2 ! − ln K + r − = e −r K Φ 2 σ So the option price is given by the Black-Scholes formula C = C1 − C2 2 2 ! ! − ln K + r + σ2 − ln K + r − σ2 =Φ − e −r K Φ σ σ
Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula
Numerical Integration
Definite integrals can rarely be computed analytically. In those
cases, we need to resort to numerical methods. Here, we present the simplest method using the Riemann sum approximation. As an example, let’s say we want to compute 1 Z ∞ dx 1 x2 We have to worry about two things: summation on the right tail and fineness of approximating rectangles. Refer to the MATLAB ® code.
Brandon Lee Black-Scholes Formula
MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu
15.450 Analytics of Finance
Fall 2010
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