Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Extreme Weather
Hurricanes Snowstorms
The Science, the Forecast, and the Impacts on America
Environment America
Research & Policy Center
Tony Dutzik,
Frontier Group
Nathan Willcox,
Environment America
Research & Policy Center
September 2010
Acknowledgments
Environment America Research & Policy Center thanks Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate
Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; Amanda Staudt, climate
scientist with the National Wildlife Federation; Paul Epstein, associate director of the Center
for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School; and Brenda Ekwurzel,
assistant director of climate research and analysis for the Climate and Energy Program of the
Union of Concerned Scientists for their review of drafts of this document, as well as their insights
and suggestions. Thanks also to Clair Embry and Kurt Walters for their research assistance
and Susan Rakov and Travis Madsen of Frontier Group for their editorial assistance.
The authors express sincere gratitude to the many scientists and researchers working to help
society understand the causes and likely impacts of global warming.
Environment America Research & Policy Center thanks the Energy Foundation, Oak Founda-
tion and New York Community Trust for making this report possible.
The authors bear responsibility for any factual errors. The recommendations are those of
Environment America Research & Policy Center. The views expressed in this report are those
of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or those who provided
review.
Environment America Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We are dedicated
to protecting America’s air, water and open spaces. We investigate problems, craft solutions,
educate the public and decision makers, and help Americans make their voices heard in local,
state and national debates over the quality of our environment and our lives. For more infor-
mation about Environment America Research & Policy Center or for additional copies of this
report, please visit www.environmentamerica.org/center.
Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier
and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and compelling
ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more information about
Frontier Group, please visit www.frontiergroup.org.
Executive Summary 1
Introduction 6
Global Warming: The Scientific Consensus 8
America’s Changing Climate 9
P
atterns of extreme weather are chang- To protect the nation from the damage
ing in the United States, and climate to property and ecosystems that results
science predicts that further changes from changes in extreme weather pat-
are in store. Extreme weather events lead to terns—as well as other consequences of
billions of dollars in economic damage and global warming—the United States must
loss of life each year. Scientists project that move quickly to reduce emissions of global
global warming could affect the frequency, warming pollutants.
timing, location and severity of many types
of extreme weather events in the decades The worldwide scientific consensus
to come. that the earth is warming and that hu-
Over the last five years, science has man activities are largely responsible
continued to make progress in exploring has solidified in recent years.
the connections between global warm-
ing and extreme weather. Meanwhile, the • A recent report published by the U.S.
United States has experienced a string of National Academy of Sciences stated
extreme events—including massive floods that “the conclusion that the Earth sys-
in the Midwest, Tennessee and Northeast, tem is warming and that much of this
intense hurricanes in Florida and along warming is very likely due to human
the Gulf Coast, drought and wildfire in activities” is “so thoroughly examined
the Southeast and Southwest—that serve and tested, and supported by so many
as a reminder of the damage that extreme independent observations and results,”
weather can cause to people, the economy that its “likelihood of subsequently being
and the environment. found to be wrong is vanishingly small.”
This report reviews recent trends in
several types of extreme weather, the im- • The national academies of sciences
pacts caused by notable events that have of 13 leading nations issued a joint
occurred since 2005, and the most recent statement in 2009 stating that “climate
scientific projections of future changes in change is happening even faster than
extreme weather. previously estimated.”
Executive Summary
• A 2009 study of the work of more pollution continues unabated. Parts of
than 1,300 climate researchers the northeastern United States could
actively publishing in the field experience an additional 8 inches of
found that 97 to 98 percent of sea-level rise due to changes in ocean
those researchers agree with the circulation patterns.
central theories behind global
warming. Several types of extreme weather
events have occurred more frequently
The consequences of global warming or with greater intensity in recent years.
are already beginning to be experienced Global warming may drive changes in
in the United States, and are likely to the frequency, timing, location or sever-
grow in the years to come, particularly ity of such events in the future.
if emissions of global warming pollut-
ants continue unabated. Hurricanes
Executive Summary
availability of snowmelt in the sum- • Scientists project that a warmer
mer. (See page 27.) climate could lead to a 54 percent
increase in the average area burned
• Flooding is the most common by western wildfires annually, with
weather-related disaster in the United the greatest increases in the Pacific
States. Recent years have seen a string Northwest and Rocky Mountains.
of incredibly destructive floods, in- (See page 35.)
cluding the 2008 Midwest flood that
inundated Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and • Heat waves are among the most lethal
caused an estimated $8 to $10 bil- of extreme weather events. A 2006
lion in damage, and the massive 2010 heat wave that affected the entire con-
floods in New England and Tennes- tiguous United States was blamed for
see. (See pages 28 and 29.) at least 147 deaths in California and
another 140 deaths in New York City.
• Projections of more frequent heavy (See page 36.)
precipitation apply to both rain and
snow storms (although warming will • Wildfire is capable of causing great
bring a shift in precipitation from snow damage to property, while the cost of
to rain over time). The 2010 record fighting wildfires is a significant drain
snowfalls in the mid-Atlantic region on public resources. In 2008, Cali-
(dubbed “Snowmageddon”) are fully fornia spent $200 million in a single
consistent with projections of increased month fighting a series of wildfires
extreme precipitation in a warming in the northern part of the state. (See
world—and with the string of massive page 36.)
flooding events elsewhere in the coun-
try during 2010. (See page 30.) Avoiding the potential increased risks
from extreme weather events—and
Heat Waves, Drought and Wildfires their costs to the economy and
society—is among the reasons the
• Over the past century, drought has United States and the world should
become more common in parts of the reduce emissions of global warming
northern Rockies, the Southwest and pollution.
the Southeast. Periods of extreme heat
have also become more common since • The United States and the world
1960. (See page 32.) should adopt measures designed to
prevent an increase in global average
• Large wildfires have become more fre- temperatures of more than 2° C (3.6°
quent in the American West since the F) above pre-industrial levels—a com-
mid-1980s, with the greatest increases mitment that would enable the world
in large wildfires coming in the north- to avoid the most damaging impacts of
ern Rockies and northern California. global warming.
• Heat waves are projected to be more • The United States should commit to
frequent, more intense, and last longer emission reductions equivalent to a 35
in a warming world. Much of the Unit- percent reduction in global warming
ed States—especially the Southwest—is pollution from 2005 levels by 2020
projected to experience more frequent and an 83 percent reduction by 2050,
or more severe drought. (See page 34.) with the majority of near-term
Executive Summary
Introduction
O
n August 29, 2005, Hurricane Ka- We also know from the world’s lead-
trina made landfall along the Gulf ing scientific authorities that much of the
Coast. Katrina was the most expen- warming that has occurred is very likely
sive natural disaster in U.S. history and one the result of human activities, especially
of the most deadly. Its landfall—especially the release of global warming pollution.
in the context of a 2005 season that shat- We know that the climate has not just
tered all previous records for hurricane fre- changed on average, but also that there
quency, intensity and damage—launched a have been changes at the extremes—such
vigorous discussion among the public and as an increase in the frequency of extremely
in the media about the role global warming hot days and heavy precipitation events
may play in extreme weather trends. worldwide.2 We also understand, with a
That discussion is renewed—often high degree of confidence, why some of
heatedly—virtually every time an extreme these changes in extremes are occurring.
weather event occurs in the United States, We know, for example, that warmer air is
whether it is an unprecedented string of capable of holding more water vapor, and
snowstorms in the nation’s capital, massive that water vapor content in the atmosphere
flooding in Nashville, Tennessee, or a sea- has in fact increased over time—and that
son of rampant wildfires in California. these changes would be expected to lead to
Five years after Hurricane Katrina, an increase in heavy precipitation events.
it is worthwhile to take a step back and For other types of extreme weather—es-
review what we know about the connec- pecially rare or complex events that are
tion between global warming and extreme caused or made more severe by the conflu-
weather and why it matters. ence of several weather phenomena—dis-
The first thing we know is that the cerning long-term trends and attributing
world’s climate has changed. The evidence causes is much more difficult. Yet, the re-
is now “unequivocal” that air and ocean cent increase in the severity and frequency
temperatures have increased globally, snow of some of these events is troubling. To be
and ice cover has decreased, and global concerned that the apparent changes in
average sea level has risen.1 some extreme events may have something
Introduction
Global Warming:
The Scientific Consensus
I
n 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on subsequently being found to be
Climate Change (IPCC)—the world’s wrong is vanishingly small. Such
foremost scientific authority on the conclusions and theories are then
subject—completed its fourth assessment regarded as settled facts. This is the
of the science of global warming. The case for the conclusion that the Earth
report, which reflected the work of thou- system is warming and that much of
sands of scientists worldwide, concluded this warming is very likely due to hu-
that “warming of the climate system is un- man activities.6 (emphasis added)
equivocal” and that “[m]ost of the observed
increase in global average temperatures Similarly, 13 national academies of sci-
since the mid-20th century is very likely due ences from around the world produced a
to the observed increase in anthropogenic joint statement in 2009 concluding:
[greenhouse gas] concentrations.”5
In the years since publication of the [C]limate change is happening even
Fourth Assessment Report, the consen- faster than previously estimated;
sus surrounding the basic science behind global CO2 emissions since 2000 have
global warming has further crystallized. been higher than even the highest
The world’s leading scientific authorities predictions, Arctic sea ice has been
have concluded that the planet is warming melting at rates much faster than
and emissions of global warming pollutants predicted, and the rise in sea level
are very likely to blame. has become more rapid. … The need
A recent report published by the U.S. for urgent action to address climate
National Academy of Sciences concluded: change is now indisputable.7 (empha-
sis added)
Some scientific conclusions or theo-
ries have been so thoroughly exam- The scientific consensus behind global
ined and tested, and supported by warming is underscored by a recent study
so many independent observations of more than 1,300 climate researchers ac-
and results, that their likelihood of tively publishing in the field, which found
P
atterns of extreme weather events trend toward stronger, more destructive
are already changing in the United hurricanes. Climate science projects that
States, and climate science predicts global warming may bring about increased
that further changes are in store. In this hurricane activity, with changes in the
report, we review recent trends in several number, intensity, duration or size of those
types of extreme weather events, the im- storms.34
pacts caused by notable events that have
occurred since 2005, and the most recent Recent Trends
scientific projections of future changes in There has been a clear trend in recent
extreme weather. years toward stronger, more destructive
hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and
worldwide.
The strongest tropical cyclones have
been getting stronger around the globe in
Hurricanes and Tropical recent decades.35 There has been an ob-
served increase in the number of Category
Storms 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since
Hurricanes are the most costly extreme 1980.36 Measurements that aggregate the
weather events that affect the United destructive power of tropical storms—in
States. Hurricane Katrina was, in nominal terms of their intensity, duration and fre-
terms, the most costly single weather-re- quency—over entire storm seasons have
lated disaster in American history, with shown a marked increase in the power of
property damages estimated to be as much hurricanes in the Atlantic since the 1970s.37
as $125 billion.33 Hurricanes can unleash Other research has found that both the en-
flooding rains, violent winds, tornadoes, ergy of and amount of precipitation in trop-
and massive coastal storm surges, inflict- ical cyclones in the Atlantic have increased
ing severe damage to property and natural in recent years, with an abrupt, step-wise
systems over a wide area. increase in cyclone energy and precipita-
In recent decades, there has been a tion occurring in the mid-1990s.38
N
ot all extreme weather events are created equal. Floods, tornadoes and
wildfires occur frequently across the United States. The vast majority of
the damage caused by extreme weather events, however, comes from the few
extreme events that are either so intense, or cover such a large geographic area, that
they overwhelm the defenses and adaptive ability of human and natural systems.
For example, “major” hurricanes—those in Categories 3, 4 and 5 of the widely
used Saffir-Simpson Scale—pack a far greater destructive punch than minor Cat-
egory 1 or 2 hurricanes. Indeed, between 1990 and 2005, major hurricanes accounted
for only 24 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes, but were responsible for 85 per-
cent of total hurricane damages.31 A reconstruction of historical damage estimates
from floods shows a similar dynamic, with the estimated damages from flooding
events in any given state typically dominated by a few, very extreme events.32
At present, there is no single, reliable, consistent, and comprehensive source of
data on economic or other damages from extreme weather events. As such, in this
report we will focus on describing the damage inflicted by several “notable” extreme
weather events since the beginning of 2005—either those that are the most deadly
or most costly in economic terms, or that are extremely unusual for their location.
The estimates of damages and loss of life used in this report are compiled from
various sources, which include or exclude various costs associated with extreme
weather events. The intention is not to provide definitive estimates of the cost of
particular natural disasters where none likely exist, nor to compare the cost of one
event to that of another, but rather to illustrate the severe impact that extreme
weather events impose on the economy, society and the environment.
The general trend toward increases half of the 20th century—a phenomenon
in hurricane strength is correlated with that has been linked to warmer sea waters
warmer sea surface temperatures39 which, during the August-September period of
in turn, have been linked to the increase in maximum hurricane activity.42
the concentration of global warming pol- While there has been a clear trend
lution in the atmosphere.40 However, the toward stronger hurricanes in recent
number, size and strength of hurricanes decades, longer-term trends—which are
in any particular year vary dramatically important for sorting out the potential
based on a number of other factors, and impacts of global warming versus the
the relative importance of global warm- normal decade-to-decade variability in
ing as a factor in recent trends remains hurricane frequency and strength—are
uncertain.41 less clear. Much of this uncertainty is due
Very recent records show an unmis- to questions about the consistency of the
takable increase in hurricane activity in historical hurricane record, given the vast
the Atlantic during the 1995-2005 period improvements in our ability to detect and
compared with the average for the second track hurricanes since record-keeping on
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 15
Atlantic hurricanes began in the 1850s. As be expected to double in the Atlantic over
a result, scientists disagree about whether the course of the 21st century as a result of
the number of hurricanes has increased43 global warming.49
since the 19th century, or there has been Climate scientists have made great
no change.44 progress in improving their understand-
ing of the links between global warming
Hurricanes in a Warming World and hurricanes over the past five years, but
Global warming is projected to lead to there remain areas of uncertainty about the
an increase in the destructive power of timing and degree of projected changes in
hurricanes, with a likely increase in the hurricane activity—particularly when the
number of extreme storms, but a possible scale of analysis is narrowed from the entire
decrease in the overall number of hur- globe to particular ocean basins. Projected
ricanes.45 Hurricanes, like all storms, are trends toward increasingly intense hurri-
expected to bring more precipitation in a canes that bring more rainfall, if they hold
warming world. true along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, pose
An expert team convened by the World serious risks to coastal communities—par-
Meteorological Organization (WMO) ticularly when coupled with rising sea level.
recently concluded that hurricane activity (See page 18.)
could change in important ways by the end
of this century if global warming continues Notable Recent Hurricanes and
unabated: Their Impacts
According to the National Oceanic and
• The number of tropical cyclones is Atmospheric Administration, there have
projected to decrease globally, by an been seven hurricanes since the beginning
estimated 6 to 34 percent, but with of 2005 that inflicted more than $1 billion
great potential variation in trends for in damages or costs.50 (It is likely that these
specific ocean basins. estimates, while the most comprehensive
available, still undercount the damage
• Average maximum wind speeds are imposed by these disasters.) Collective
projected to increase globally by 2 to damage from these storms exceeded $200
11 percent. billion. Major destructive hurricanes dur-
ing this period include:
• The number of intense hurricanes is
projected to increase.46 • Katrina 2005 - $134 billion in esti-
mated damages (normalized 2007
• Tropical cyclones are projected to dollars)51
bring more rainfall, with a projected
average increase of about 20 percent.47 • Ike 2008 - $27 billion
These global trends are likely to vary • Rita 2005 - $17.1 billion
by region. Five of seven climate models in
one recent study pointed to an increase in • Wilma 2005 - $17.1 billion
the aggregate power of hurricanes in the
Atlantic by the end of the next century, • Gustav 2008 - $5 billion
with an average increase in power across
all models of 10 percent.48 Another recent • Dennis 2005 - $2.2 billion
modeling effort projected that the number
of severe Category 4 and 5 hurricanes could • Dolly 2005 - $1.2 billion
A lone house stands on a section of Texas’ Bolivar Peninsula that was inundated by the storm
surge from 2008’s Hurricane Ike. Credit: Adam T. Baker
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 17
“Ike Dike” that would stretch 60 miles and 60 percent of Key West underwater—the
protect the area from floodwaters. If built, worst storm surge flooding in the Keys
the structure would cost an estimated $2 since 1965.62 The cost of damage from the
billion to $4 billion.57 storm was estimated at nearly $21 billion,
Ike was responsible for 112 deaths in the making it (at the time) the third costliest
United States and the Caribbean. While hurricane in U.S. history.
the destruction along the Gulf Coast at-
tracted the bulk of the attention, flooding
rains from the storm affected large parts
of the Midwest and Canada. Authorities
blamed at least 28 deaths in the Midwest
and Appalachian regions on flooding from Coastal Storms and Sea
Ike, and ranked the storm as one of the Level Rise
costliest natural disasters in the history The United States is the world’s third-
of Ohio.58 largest country by land area, but much of
our population and property is clustered
Hurricane Wilma (2005) along the coasts. Nearly three out of every
10 Americans live in counties that abut
Florida the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans or the Gulf
By the time Hurricane Wilma formed in of Mexico.63 The coasts are home to five
October 2005, the 2005 U.S. hurricane of the nation’s 10 largest cities as well as
season had already tied or broken records much of its economic productivity, key
for both the highest number of hurricanes infrastructure, culture and history. All in
and of Category 5 hurricanes, had already all, between 900,000 and 3.4 million people
registered two of the five strongest hurri- in the mid-Atlantic region alone live on city
canes on record (Katrina and Rita), and had blocks or land parcels with some land below
seen the costliest hurricane ever in terms 3.3 feet (1 meter) in elevation.64
of estimated damage (Katrina).59 The images of widespread destruction
Hurricane Wilma, however, showed along the Gulf Coast after Hurricane
that records still remained to be broken Katrina and Hurricane Ike reinforce the
during 2005, becoming the strongest association of storm surge damages with
Atlantic hurricane on record. Within a hurricanes. But coastal flooding is not only
24-hour period, Wilma intensified from a a problem in the southern states and not
tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, only a result of hurricanes. In 2003, for
a rate of intensification that staff at the example, Hurricane Isabel pushed storm
National Hurricane Center described as surge waters far up Chesapeake Bay, in-
“by far the largest in the available records undating low-lying portions of Baltimore,
… going back to 1851.”60 Annapolis and other communities.65 In-
Wilma weakened slightly to a Category tense winter storms along the East and
4 hurricane before striking Cozumel, Mex- West coasts also cause flooding that dam-
ico. After crossing the Yucatan peninsula, ages coastal property.
Wilma emerged into the Gulf of Mexico The U.S. coastline faces a double threat
and restrengthened (to a Category 3) before from global warming—the potential for
making landfall in southwestern Florida. more intense storms that generate greater
Wilma knocked out power to 98 percent storm surge and wave action and the
of South Florida and caused 23 deaths in projected rise in sea level that will enable
all, five of them in Florida.61 Wilma’s storm coastal storms to have a more destructive
surge inundated the Florida Keys, putting impact further inland.
Figure 2. Measured Rise in Mean Sea Level Along the U.S. Coast (from the beginning
of record-keeping at each station to 2006) in Feet per Century68
3.5
3.0
Mean Sea Level Trend (feet/century)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 19
rising seas have been contributing factors particularly in the Pacific Northwest.73
to the loss of 1,900 square miles of coastal (Similar research has found an increase
wetlands in Louisiana.67 in maximum wave heights on the Atlantic
Sea level rise has the potential to in- Coast resulting from hurricanes.74)
crease the destructive capability of coastal As described below, however, sea level
storms—both tropical storms and extra- rise is likely to increase the destructive
tropical storms such as the “Nor’easters” power of even “normal” coastal storms.
that frequently hammer the East Coast and
the vicious winter storms that occur along
the Pacific Coast. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms
The storm tracks of extratropical cy- in a Warming World
clones have shifted toward the poles in Global warming will bring higher seas as
recent decades, coinciding with a decline glaciers and ice caps melt and sea water
in the number of such storms off the U.S. continues to expand as it warms. Rising
Atlantic and Pacific coasts.69 sea level will increase the damage that can
Parts of the Pacific off the U.S. West be inflicted by coastal storms. The implica-
Coast, however, have experienced increas- tions of global warming for changes in the
ing numbers of intense winter storms since number and severity of non-tropical coastal
the middle of the 20th century.70 One clue storms are less clear, though these storms
to the increase in the power of winter will likely bring more rainfall.
storms has come from the measurement A warmer world will bring higher seas
of wave heights off the coast of the Pacific as glaciers and ice caps continue to melt
Northwest. Researchers have found that and sea water continues to expand as it
waves off the Oregon coast are higher than warms.
they were 35 years ago, with the greatest In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel
increase coming in the largest waves.71 As on Climate Change estimated that sea level
recently as the early 1990s, scientists esti- would likely rise by 7 to 23 inches (18 to
mated that the height of a “100-year wave” 59 centimeters) by the end of the century.
(one expected to occur only once every That estimate, however, (as the IPCC
century) was 33 feet; now it is estimated to acknowledged at the time) did not include
be 46 feet.72 The study also found that the the potential for sea level change resulting
increases in wave height have been greatest from the potential changes in the flow of
off the coast of Washington and northern ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica.75
Oregon, and less in southern Oregon. The Research conducted since publication
study is consistent with other research of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment projects
that suggests an increase in the height of that sea level rise will be significantly
the highest waves along the West Coast, greater than the IPCC estimate. The
Table 1. Land Area Less than One Meter in Elevation Above Spring High Water,
Mid-Atlantic Region (sq. mi.)
NY NJ PA DE MD DC VA NC TOTAL
T
he inundation of New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the
need for effective systems to protect low-lying coastal cities from storm surge.
Should sea level continue to rise, the preservation of low-lying cities—includ-
ing parts of major economic engines such as Miami, New York, and Boston—could
come to depend on engineered defenses—defenses that could cost tens of billions
of dollars to build and maintain.
Engineered defenses against sea-level rise and associated storm surge flooding
are expensive and, as the case of New Orleans showed, not infallible. Great Britain
and the Netherlands have built flood barriers to defend against periodic storm surge
flooding that is capable of causing major property damage and loss of life. The
Thames Barrier, which protects London from storm surge flooding, was completed
at a cost of $1.9 billion, while the Netherlands’ Oosterscheldekering barrier near
Rotterdam cost about $3.4 billion.89
Other strategies to protect coastal property from global warming-induced sea
level rise—ranging from construction of seawalls to stronger building codes to
the relocation of people and businesses away from the shore—would also impose
economic costs.
U.S. Climate Change Research Program storms by driving storm surge further
concluded in 2008 that, based on observed inland. Under a high-emission scenario, a
changes in the behavior of the Greenland “100-year” coastal flood in New York City
and Antarctic ice sheets, “including these (a flood of a size expected to occur once a
processes in models will very likely show century based on historical records—see
that IPCC AR4 [Fourth Assessment Re- the text box on page 26), could happen
port] projected sea level rises for the end of twice as often by the middle of this century,
the 21st century are too low.”76 One recent and 10 times as often by the end of the cen-
study projects that sea level rise by the end tury.79 Meanwhile, higher seas would raise
of the century could be more than double the water level of tidally influenced rivers,
that predicted by the IPCC—or between creating greater risk of inland flooding
2.5 and 6.25 feet (75 centimeters and 1.9 during heavy rainfall events.
meters).77 The risks to property and infrastructure
What would such an increase mean for posed by a combination of sea level rise and
America’s coastline? In the mid-Atlantic strong storms are severe. In the portion of
region from New York to North Carolina, the Gulf Coast stretching from Galveston,
approximately 1,065 square miles of dry Texas, to Mobile, Alabama, more than
land, as well as vast areas of wetland, are half of the highways, nearly half of the
less than 3.3 feet (1 meter) above the spring rail miles, 29 airports and almost all port
high water mark. (See Table 1.)78 infrastructure are subject to flooding in the
R ising sea level will increase t he future due to the combination of higher sea
destructive power of even routine coastal levels and hurricane storm surge. Much
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 21
of this infrastructure is at risk even in the increased the number of moderate coastal
absence of storm surge due to projected flooding events at Battery Park from zero
sea-level rise.80 to 136, or the equivalent of a coastal flood
In the mid-Atlantic region, a one-meter warning every other week.81
sea level rise could result in the breakup or Making matters worse for residents of
migration of barrier islands, and convert the northeastern United States is evidence
vast areas of wetland to open water. In areas suggesting that sea-level rise in that region
such as the New York City metropolitan will be greater than the global average,
area, sea-level rise coupled with storm due to global warming-induced changes
surge from coastal storms could result in in ocean circulation patterns. The result
severe damage to transportation infra- could be an additional 8 inches of sea-level
structure, including airports, highways, rise in cities such as Boston, New York and
tunnels, railroads, ports and public trans- Washington, D.C., atop the roughly three
portation systems. A review of past storm feet that will occur globally, further mag-
surges in New York City estimated that nifying the damage caused by even routine
a 20-inch (50 centimeter) rise in sea level coastal storms.82
(well below the current low-end estimate There is less clarity regarding the
of sea level rise by the end of the century potential impacts of global warming on
if global warming pollution continues un- extratropical storms. Recent studies sug-
abated), had it been present during the gest that global warming will reduce the
period between 1997 and 2007, would have number of extratropical cyclones in the
Floodwaters washed out a rail line in the Pacific Northwest during the destructive December 1-3,
2007 winter storms that pounded the Pacific Coast. Credit: National Weather Service
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 23
Southwest Winter Storm (2010)
Flooding and Extreme
California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada Rainfall
The winter of 2009-2010 will be best Flooding is a major cause of property dam-
remembered for the series of massive age and loss of life in the United States.
snowstorms (dubbed “Snowmageddon”) Major floods can devastate communities,
that smashed snowfall records in Wash- ruin crops, and bring transportation to
ington, D.C., and the mid-Atlantic region. a halt. The 1993 Midwestern flood, for
But January 2010 saw other records fall in example, was the fifth most-costly weather-
America’s Southwest. related disaster since 1980, trailing only
Strong winter storms are not uncommon Hurricane Katrina, heat waves and related
in the Southwest during El Niño periods, droughts in 1980 and 1988, and 1992’s Hur-
but the January 2010 storm was truly epic, ricane Andrew.101
setting all-time records for low pressure Property damage from flooding results
across 10 to 15 percent of the United States, in part from human decisions—such as
including Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Las the location of houses and transporta-
Vegas and Phoenix.96 The storm brought tion infrastructure in floodplains or the
heavy snowfall to higher elevations, heavy paving-over of large areas of natural land
rain elsewhere, and strong winds, along with impervious surfaces, which acceler-
with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. ates the flow of runoff into waterways. But
In California, which experiences an aver- precipitation—in the form of rain or melt-
age of six tornadoes a year, there were ing snow—is a key ingredient of any flood
unconfirmed reports of seven tornadoes in event. And with the number of extreme
January, which would make it the all-time downpours in the United States increasing
busiest January for tornadoes and the sixth in recent decades—and projected to con-
busiest of any month since 1950.97 tinue to increase in the future—flooding
In Arizona, Yuma and Flagstaff experi- may well become an even more important
enced their wettest January days on record, concern in the years to come.
with heavy rainfall also recorded in Phoe-
nix and Tucson.98 Accumulation of heavy, Recent Trends
wet snow collapsed the roofs of buildings in The number of extreme rainfall events has
Flagstaff and heavy rains caused flooding increased in the United States in recent
that led to the death of a six-year-old boy decades.
as well as evacuations of low-lying areas.99 Over the last century, the amount of
Another potential calamity, however, was precipitation falling over most of the Unit-
averted, when rainfall fell short of projec- ed States has increased, with the exception
tions in California. Public officials ordered of the Southwest, which has received less
evacuations and warned residents of the precipitation.102
potential for mudslides in areas that had However, the increase in precipitation
been burned in wildfires the previous year. has come largely in the form of heavy
While some mudslides were reported in precipitation events. Research suggests
areas affected by the 2009 Station wildfire, that there has either been no change or a
according to Susan Cannon, a research decrease in the number of light or aver-
geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, “If age precipitation days during the last 30
the initial forecast had held, it’s likely some years.103 But, the amount of precipitation
catchment basins would have overflowed, falling in the top 1 percent of rainfall events
potentially sending rivers of fast-moving has increased by 20 percent over the course
debris into communities.”100 of the 20th century.104
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 25
Flooding and Extreme Rainfall in to come with increased precipitation in a
a Warming World warming world.
The question of whether increases in
The trend toward more extreme rainfall heavy precipitation events will lead to in-
events is expected to continue in a warm- creased flooding, however, is more compli-
ing climate, bringing with it an increased cated—depending not only on the number
risk of flooding.111 and severity of extreme events, but also
Warmer temperatures lead to greater on their timing, as well as the effective-
evaporation, and warmer air is capable ness of human-built systems in managing
of holding more water vapor. These two stormwater. By the end of the century,
factors will result in rainfall events that precipitation is expected to increase during
bring more frequent heavy precipitation the winter months in much of the northern
events in a warmer world, even in locations United States, with the greatest increases
where there is no overall increase in annual taking place in the Northeast and North-
rainfall.112 west. The summer months are projected to
The greatest increase in intense pre- be drier over most of the nation.115
cipitation is projected for the Northeast A good example of the complicated
and Midwest.113 As discussed earlier, both connections between precipitation and
hurricanes (see page 14) and extra-tropi- flooding is the Columbia River basin of
cal storms (see page 18) are also projected Washington and Oregon. Climate science
M
any engineering and planning decisions are made on assumptions about
the likely “return time” of extreme weather events. Calculations of return
time are typically based on the historical climate record and rest on the
assumption that what has happened in the past provides us with useful information
about the likelihood of extreme events recurring in the future.
Terms such as “100-year flood” are commonly misunderstood to suggest that such
an event occurs only “once every 100 years.” The proper way to interpret return
time is as an estimate of the probability of an event occurring in any given year,
based on the historical climate record. In other words, a 100-year flood would have an
estimated 1 percent chance of occurring in any particular year. The occurrence of
100-year events in back-to-back years would be improbable, but not impossible.
More importantly, because the climate is changing, the historical climate record
may no longer be as useful in helping society to estimate how frequently extreme
events will occur in the future.
In this report, we make use of terms such as “100-year flood” to illustrate the im-
probability of specific extreme weather events in the context of the historical climate
record, but caution readers that what may have been judged to be a “100-year flood”
based on historical climate records may now—depending on the changes that have
taken place in the climate in that location—be more or less likely to occur.
Downtown Davenport, Iowa, was submerged under floodwaters during the Midwest floods of
2008, which caused between $8 billion and $10 billion in damages in the state of Iowa alone.
Credit: Kurt Ockelmann
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 27
a slightly lower probability of 100-year areas by the President.125 Damage to the
floods in the upper Mississippi River, the state was extensive, with 40,000 Iowans
only river studied worldwide that exhibited forced from their homes and 3,000 homes
a negative extreme flooding trend.)120 destroyed.126 Economic losses were monu-
On a more localized level, an increase mental. Total job losses stemming from
in the number of heavy downpours could the flood were estimated at 7,500,127 and
be expected to increase the risk of flash the American Farm Bureau estimated that
flooding and urban flooding, which are there were $4 billion in agricultural losses
also capable of inflicting property damage in Iowa,128 contributing to total damages
and loss of life. estimated by state officials at between $8
billion and $10 billion.129 The floods were
also responsible for 24 deaths and 148
Notable Recent Floods and Extreme injuries.130
Rainfall Events and their Impacts
Historically, flooding has been the most Northeast Floods (2010)
common natural disaster affecting the
United States.121 Damaging floods can oc- Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hamp-
cur in any region of the country, and major shire, Maine, New York, New Jersey,
floods can inflict massive damage. In parts Pennsylvania
of the country—particularly those that In March, 2010, New England was struck
have experienced the greatest increase in by a series of extremely wet “Nor’easters”
extreme rainfall events—extreme flooding that dumped record rainfall on much of
seems to be happening more frequently, the region. On March 13, a large storm
with two massive “500-year” floods occur- dropped 6 to 10 inches of rain in parts of
ring in the Midwest over a 15-year period New England and the mid-Atlantic region.
and a pattern of increasingly frequent major Then, two weeks later, a second major
floods in New England. storm deposited several more inches of rain
on the region’s already saturated ground.
Midwest Floods (2008) Rainfall records throughout the region
were smashed, with New York, Boston and
Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Mis- Portland, Maine, experiencing their raini-
souri, Minnesota, Nebraska est March ever and Providence setting a
In June 2008, abnormally heavy rains trig- record for its all-time rainiest month since
gered the Midwest’s second “500-year” records have been kept.131
flooding event in 15 years. The rains came The damage was most severe in Rhode
following an unusually wet winter and Island. Having just started to recover from
spring. During June, more than 1,000 new a “100-year” flooding event in mid-March,
daily precipitation records were set across the late March rains created an even worse,
the Midwest, as were new all-time records “500-year” flooding event.132 The Pawtuxet
for streamflow on rivers such as the Cedar, River crested at nearly 21 feet—12 feet
Wisconsin and Des Moines rivers.122 higher than its usual level—leaving homes,
Iowa was hit especially hard by the businesses and transportation infrastruc-
floods, which left 1,300 city blocks of Ce- ture underwater.133 The floods damaged
dar Rapids under water and devastated sewage treatment plants and created an
the surrounding region.123 The flood was environmental crisis as raw sewage flowed
deemed to be the worst natural disaster into Narragansett Bay. In addition to leav-
ever to hit the state of Iowa124 and 85 of the ing 2,000 residents homeless for several
state’s 99 counties were declared disaster weeks,134 the storm prompted officials to
A directional sign in East Nashville, submerged during the massive May 2010 floods in Tennessee.
Credit: Debbie Smith
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 29
Snowstorms linked to global warming—there has
been an apparent increase in lake-effect
The idea that global warming might fuel
snows. Lake-effect snows occur when
more extreme snowfall events might seem
cold air blows across the surface of the
counter-intuitive. After all, common sense
Great Lakes, causing water evaporated
would suggest that a warmer world will
from the lakes to be deposited on the far
bring less snow. And, on average, that
shore as snow.
is true—climate science suggests that
Lake-effect snow is not possible after
northern portions of the United States will
ice has formed on the lakes—this may
experience a greater share of precipitation
be one reason why areas downwind of
falling as rain and less as snow in a warm-
the Great Lakes experience the greatest
ing world.145
snowstorm activity early in the winter,
But, as with other weather events, much
during December, compared with other
of the damage caused by snow is caused
areas where snowstorm activity peaks later
by extreme snowfall events, those with
in the season.148
the capability to collapse roofs, impair
Ice cover on the Great Lakes has
transportation, and shut down economic
declined by roughly 30 percent on aver-
activity. Global warming has the potential
age since the early 1970s as the result of
to increase the risk of extreme snowfall
warmer temperatures.149 As ice cover has
events for areas that remain cold enough
declined, lake-effect snows have appar-
to receive snow.
ently increased. A 2003 study found that
there had been a significant increase in
Recent Trends snowfall at sites receiving lake-effect snow
Trends toward increases in extreme pre- since the early 1930s, compared with no
cipitation events apply equally to snow and trend for comparable areas not receiving
rain events. There has been a northward lake-effect snow. The study noted, for
shift in snowstorm occurrence over the example, that Syracuse, New York—a
past century, along with an apparent lake-effect snow hot spot—experienced
increase in lake effect snow. its snowiest decade of the 20 th century
The same conditions that lead to more during the 1990s.150
intense rainstorms—including increased
evaporation from oceans and the ability of
warmer air to hold more water vapor—can Extreme Snowstorms in a
also be expected to contribute to an in- Warming World
crease in extreme snowstorms. Indeed, a Projected increases in extreme precipita-
study of snowstorms during the 20th cen- tion events apply to both snow and rain
tury found that most snowstorms occurred events, though, over time, the share of
during warmer-than-normal years in most precipitation falling as snow versus rain
of the United States.146 is expected to decrease.
During the 20th century, there was no The U.S. Global Change Research
significant trend in snowstorms nation- Program projects that the strongest winter
wide, but there were significant changes storms are likely to become stronger and
at the regional level. Snowstorms became more frequent in the decades to come.151
more frequent over the course of the cen- To the extent that certain areas of the
tury in the upper Midwest and Northeast, country remain cold enough for snowfall
and less frequent in the lower Midwest and during periods of the winter, this would
South.147 suggest increased frequency of “storms of
For different reasons—also potentially the century” in a warming world.
Climate models project that the north- damage as hurricanes or flooding rains,
ern United States will receive more pre- though they can cause loss of life as
cipitation in the winter and spring months, well as economic disruption over a wide
though, over time, an increasing share of area.
this precipitation will come as rain, as op-
posed to snow.152
In a warming world, the Great Lakes 2010 Mid-Atlantic “Snowmageddon”
are projected to freeze later and less thor-
oughly, allowing for more frequent lake-ef- Maryland, Virginia, District of Colum-
fect precipitation events. Climate science bia, Delaware, West Virginia, Pennsyl-
projects that, while lake-effect snowfall vania, New Jersey, New York
will increase over the next several decades, Prior to 2009, Washington, D.C., had
it is likely to decrease after then as warmer only received more than a foot of snow
temperatures more frequently change lake- 12 times since 1870.154 In the winter of
effect snows into lake-effect rains.153 2009-2010, it happened twice—once in
December 2009 and once in February
2010. The February storm, which was
Notable Recent Extreme paired with a second, less-intense storm
Snowstorms and their Impacts just a few days later, brought Washington,
Extreme snowstorms generally do not D.C. and much of the mid-Atlantic region
create the same degree of direct property to a standstill.
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 31
Dubbed “Snow maggedon” or t he
“Snowpocalypse,” the storms dropped 32
Drought, Wildfire and Heat
inches155 of snow at Washington-Dulles Waves
Airport on February 5-6 and nine more Extended periods of drought have broad
inches of snow156 on February 10-11, virtu- impacts on the economy and the environ-
ally paralyzing the nation’s capital.157 All ment. Crops fail, reservoirs dry up, cities
modes of transportation were affected as and towns scramble to find water to supply
roads became impassable, transit service the needs of residents and industry, and
on all but the underground portions of forests and grasslands become increasingly
the city’s Metro system came to a halt, susceptible to damaging wildfires. The sec-
Amtrak canceled most service, and the ond and third most costly weather disasters
vast majority of flights to and from the city of the last 30 years were droughts and heat
were stopped.158 The U.S. Postal Service waves that struck the eastern and central
did not deliver mail on Saturday, Febru- United States in 1980 and 1988.165
ary 6—the first time in 30 years that the Global warming threatens to increase
Postal Service canceled delivery.159 the occurrence of extreme drought world-
The economic costs of the storm were wide, with the percentage of the globe
estimated at more than $2 billion.160 With in extreme drought projected to increase
the roads blocked, federal employees had from 1 percent today to 30 percent by the
to take unplanned leave starting four end of the century if global warming emis-
hours early on Friday and lasting into the sions continue unabated.166 The United
following week, at an estimated cost to States is not immune, with global warming
taxpayers of $100 million each day.161 The projected to increase drought in much of
snow also caused the collapse of several the country, which could contribute to an
buildings throughout the area, including increase in wildfire activity.
a jet hanger at Dulles International Air- Heat waves do not create the same de-
port.162 While the massive snowfall in the gree of direct physical damage to property
nation’s capital received the most media and crops as other extreme weather events
attention, seasonal snowfall records were (not counting their contribution to drought
also broken in Baltimore and Philadelphia or wildfire), but they are often far more le-
and economic disruption spread through- thal. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control
out the mid-Atlantic region.163 and Prevention estimates that excessive
At t he t i me, t he Febr u a r y 2010 heat killed more than 8,000 Americans
“Snowmageddon” appeared to many to between 1979 and 2003.167
be a freak occurrence, but it was actu-
ally one of a series of damaging extreme Recent Trends
precipitation events in the United States Over the past century, drought has
during the latter part of 2009 and early become more common in parts of the
2010—including the massive mid-Atlan- northern Rockies, the Southwest and the
tic and eastern snowstorm of December Southeast. Periods of extreme heat have
2009, the “500-year” flood event in New become more common since 1960, and
England in March 2010 (see page 28), the large wildfire activity in the American
“1,000-year” flood event in Tennessee in West has increased markedly since the
May 2010 (see page 29), and massive flood- mid-1980s.
ing in Oklahoma in June 2010.164 Heat waves, droughts and wildfires are
often related events. Heat waves occur over
a span of days to weeks, while droughts
typically develop following long periods
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 33
California, increases in large wildfire fre- short and medium-term droughts by the
quency have occurred throughout most of end of the century under two emission
the western United States.178 scenarios, with greater changes under a
high-emission scenario.184
Heat Waves, Drought and Wildfire Climate models are in strong agreement
in a Warming World that the Southwest will receive less annual
Heat waves are projected to be more fre- precipitation, with significant reductions
quent, more intense, and last longer in a in soil moisture, over the course of the
warming world. Parts of the United States next century.185 Despite the Southwest’s
are projected to experience more frequent reputation as an arid region, research
or severe drought, and to experience an into the long-term weather history of the
increase in wildfire activity. western United States suggests that the
Climate models project that the entire first half of the 20th century—the period
contiguous United States will experience during which intense settlement of the
a significant increase in the number of ex- area began—was actually an anomalously
treme heat days by the end of the century wet period in the region’s history and that
under a scenario in which global warming the region has historically been subjected
pollution continues unabated.179 By the to “megadroughts” that are associated with
end of the century, parts of the nation, warmer temperatures.186 (Similar findings
particularly in the West, may experience have been made with regard to the historic
a once-in-20-years heat event (based on climate record of the Southeast, which ex-
the historical record) as frequently as once perienced an unusually wet period during
every other year.180 the 20th century in the context of the last
Heat waves and unusually hot seasons thousand years and has experienced severe,
are also projected to become more com- prolonged drought in the past.)187
mon in a warming world. Recent research Higher temperatures, prolonged dry
projects that seasons as hot as the hottest spells, and drought are also expected to
on record for the second half of the 20th contribute to an increase in wildfire activity
century will occur four to seven times per in parts of the country.
decade by the 2030s in much of the United Global warming is expected to bring
States.181 Other research projects that the major changes to America’s forests. Tree
number of 90 degree days will increase species are expected to move toward the
dramatically by the end of the century, north and upslope, while there are already
more than doubling in the southern part signs of increasing destructive impacts
of the country.182 from invasive species and insect pests,
Extreme heat, coupled with an expected some of which may be linked to rising
decline in summer precipitation across temperatures.188
most of the United States, could contrib- On the whole, climate science predicts
ute to widespread summer drying and that conditions in the American West will
increased risk of drought. Climate models change in ways that will bring about more
project that nearly the entire lower 48 states frequent and more destructive wildfires.
will experience more dry days by the end of The area burned by wildfire in the west-
the century, with strong agreement among ern United States is projected to increase
the models across most of the country.183 over time as a result of climate change. 189
Hot, dry conditions are expected to Recent trends toward more frequent and
increase the risk of drought in much of the bigger fires in the interior West, Southwest
country. In the Northeast, climate models and Alaska are projected to continue.190 A
project an increase in the frequency of study of the western United States projects
that increases in temperature will lead to for the state of California found that fires
a 54 percent increase in the average area in one area of Northern California could
burned annually by the 2050s, with the be expected to spread more quickly under
greatest increases in the Pacific Northwest a climate change scenario, leading to a po-
and Rocky Mountains.191 tential increase in the number of fires that
One recent modeling effort projected escape initial efforts at containment.193
that California would experience a 12 to Global warming may also change the
53 percent increase in the probability of distribution of plant species in such a way as
large fires by the 2070-2099 timeframe to alter—and in some cases, magnify—fire
under several scenarios of future climate risk. In California, for example, global
change. W hile fire risk increased in warming is projected to lead to a dramatic
Northern California in all scenarios, some change in the state’s ecosystems, with a
scenarios suggested that wildfire risk in loss of alpine/subalpine forests and shru-
parts of Southern California may decline. bland, and the expansion of grasslands and
The modeling exercise projected that the mixed evergreen forests by the end of the
value of structures burned in Northern century.194 These changes contributed to
California would increase between 21 and a modeled 9 to 15 percent increase in the
96 percent.192 amount of area annually burned by fire by
Global warming may also change the the end of the century.195
way that fires behave once started, possibly Global warming-induced shifts in pest
leading to increased damage. A 2005 study populations and invasive species may
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 35
further increase fire risk. The invasion of U.S. Heat Wave (2006)
non-native grassland species in arid por-
tions of the West is expected to increase Nationwide
fire risk in these regions.196 In addition to During July and August 2006, much of
the threats to property, the loss of iconic the United States was affected by a strong
plants of the Southwest—including the and unusually long-lasting heat wave.
saguaro cactus and the Joshua tree—is The heat wave set 50 new all-time high
considered likely.197 temperature records in the central and
As noted earlier, the changes that global western United States.202 The month of
warming will impose on western forests July was the second-hottest July on record
are complex and multi-faceted, such that nationwide.203
wildfire trends differ by location. In some The heat wave had lethal impacts across
pockets of the West, global warming could the country, including on both coasts.
result in reduced fire risk, as a reduction in In California, county coroners reported
moisture inhibits plant growth, reducing 147 deaths resulting from the heat wave,
the availability of fuel. 198 though a subsequent analysis found that the
While this discussion has thus far been true number of deaths from the heat wave
focused on the West, the risk of damag- could have been two to three times that
ing wildfires may increase in other parts number.204 In New York City, 40 people
of the United States as well.199 According were reported to have died of heat stroke,
to one recent modeling exercise, fire po- while public health officials estimated that
tential would increase across the country, the heat contributed to the deaths of an
with the potential for fires moving from additional 100 people.205
“low” to “moderate” in the southeastern
and northwestern United States, and fire California Drought and Wildfires (2008)
potential increasing in the Northeast and
Southwest as well.200 California
The spring of 2008 was the driest one on
Notable Recent Heat Waves, record for Northern California, with Gov-
Droughts, and Wildfires ernor Arnold Schwarzenegger declaring
Heat waves, droughts and wildfires are all the first statewide drought in 17 years.206
related phenomena linked with higher tem- Sacramento saw only 0.17 inches of rain,
peratures and dry conditions. But they have less than a third of the previous record
very different impacts, with heat waves low of 0.55 inches in 1934.207 San Francisco
primarily causing damage in the form of was similarly dry, with only 0.67 inches of
premature death, droughts hampering crop rain falling from March to May, the low-
growth and straining water supplies, and est amount since record-keeping began
wildfires damaging forests and threatening in 1850.208 Rare dry lightning strikes on
human settlements. June 20 and 21 ignited thousands of fires in
Since 2005, major droughts have im- Northern California, burning more than
posed damages and other costs exceeding 1.2 million acres.209
$19 billion in the United States. Wildfires CalFire, the state’s fire-fighting agen-
have caused more than $1 billion in dam- cy, spent about $204 million in June
ages each year since 2006. 201 Deadly heat battling these Northern California fires,
waves have hit parts of the United States almost matching the $225 million it
each year since 2005, including 2010. The typically spends in a year for the entire
following examples illustrate damage state. 210 Gov. Schwarzenegger was forced
caused by these types of events. to mobilize military forces for the first
Extreme Weather: The Trends, the Impacts, and Predictions for the Future 37
Conclusions and Recommendations
E
xtreme weather events impose massive should adopt measures designed to
costs on the nation and threaten the prevent an increase in global average
health and survival both of people af- temperatures of more than 2° C (3.6°
fected by those events and of treasured eco- F) above pre-industrial levels—a com-
systems. Recent scientific findings about mitment that would enable the world
the potential impacts of global warming to avoid the most damaging impacts of
on extreme weather patterns provide yet global warming.
another reason for the world to take action
against global warming. • The United States should commit to
Climate science suggests that there is emission reductions equivalent to a 35
still time for the world to avoid the worst percent reduction in global warming
impacts of global warming—if we take pollution from 2005 levels by 2020
immediate action to reduce emissions of and an 83 percent reduction by 2050,
global warming pollutants. While all na- with the majority of near-term emis-
tions in the world have an important role sion reductions coming from the U.S.
to play in curbing emissions, the United economy (instead of through reducing
States—as the world’s second-leading emit- or offsetting emissions in other parts
ter of global warming pollution and the of the world). A variety of policy mea-
nation responsible for more of the human- sures can be used to achieve this goal,
caused carbon dioxide in the atmosphere including:
than any other—has a special responsibility
to lead. o A cap-and-trade system that puts a
The nation should move immediately to price on emissions of global warm-
adopt policies that will reduce America’s ing pollutants.
emissions of global warming pollution.
Specifically: o A renewable energy standard to
promote the use of clean renewable
• The United States and the world energy.
Notes 41
Meteorological Organization, Statement 52 Robbie Berg, National Hurricane Center,
on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Ike, updated
November 2006. 3 May 2010.
41 Gerard A. Meehl, Thomas F. Stocker, 53 U.S. Minerals Management Service,
et al., “Global Climate Projections,” in S. Minerals Management Service Updates Ike
Solomon, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: Damage Assessments (press release), 18
The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of September 2008.
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment 54 Associated Press, “AP Investigation:
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Hurricane Ike Environmental Toll
Climate Change, 2007. Apparent,” Dallas Morning News, 5 October
42 Mark A. Saunders and Adam S. Lea, 2008.
“Large Contribution of Sea Surface 55 Bruce Nichols and Erwin Seba,
Warming to Recent Increase in Atlantic “Hurricane Ike Hits Heart of U.S. Oil
Hurricane Activity,” Nature, 451: 557-561, Sector,” Reuters, 13 September 2008.
doi:10.1038/nature06422, 31 January 2008.
56 Clifford Krauss and James C. McKinley,
43 Greg J. Holland and Peter J. Webster, Jr., “Hurricane Damage Extensive in Texas,”
“Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the New York Times, 13 September 2008.
North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate
Trend?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal 57 Ben Casselman, “Planning the ‘Ike Dike’
Society A, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083, 365: Defense,” Wall Street Journal, 4 June 2009.
2695-2716, 2007. 58 See note 52.
44 Christopher W. Landsea, et al., “Impact 59 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Administration, NOAA Reviews Record-
Cyclone Counts,” Journal of Climate, 23: Setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season,
2508-2519, 2010. updated 13 April 2006.
45 Increase in strength of hurricanes was 60 Richard J. Pasch, et al., National
considered “likely” (better than two-in-three Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Report:
chance of occurring), by IPCC, see note 41. Hurricane Wilma, 15-25 October 2005, 12
46 The level of confidence in this finding is January 2006.
“more likely than not,” meaning a greater than 61 Ibid.
50 percent probability: Thomas R. Knutson, et
62 Kennard Chip Kaiser, National Weather
al., “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change,”
Service, Key West Forecast Office, Hurricane
Nature Geoscience 3: 157-163, doi: 10.1038/
Wilma in the Florida Keys, downloaded from
ngeo779, March 2010.
www.srh.noaa.gov/key/?n=wilma, 15 July
47 Thomas R. Knutson, et al., “Tropical 2010.
Cyclones and Climate Change,” Nature
63 U.S. Census Bureau, Coastline Population
Geoscience 3: 157-163, doi: 10.1038/ngeo779,
Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008, May
March 2010.
2010.
48 Kerry Emanuel, Ragoth Sundararajan
64 Stephen K. Gill, et al., “Population,
and John Williams, “Hurricanes and Global
Land Use and Infrastructure,” in James G.
Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC
Titus, et al., U.S. Climate Change Science
AR4 Simulations,” Bulletin of the American
Program, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise:
Meteorological Society, March 2008.
A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, January
49 See note 36. 2009.
50 National Oceanic and Atmospheric 65 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, National Climatic Data Administration, National Weather Service,
Center, Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, Service Assessment: Hurricane Isabel: September
downloaded from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ 18-19, 2003, May 2004.
reports/billionz.html, 24 June 2010.
66 See note 19.
51 Ibid.
67 1,900 square miles: See note 9.
Notes 43
87 Jing Jiang and William Perrie, “The 100 See note 92.
Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn 101 See note 50.
North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones,”
Journal of Climate, 20: 1174-1187, doi: 102 See note 2.
10.1175/JCLI4058.1, 1 April 2007. 103 Kenneth Kunkel, et al., “Observed
88 See note 85. Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes”
in Thomas R. Karl, et al. (eds.), U.S. Climate
89 Kristina Hill and Jonathan Barnett, Change Science Program, Weather and
“Design for Rising Sea Levels,” Harvard Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, June
Design Magazine, Fall 2007/Winter 2008. 2008.
90 Neal Lott, National Climatic Data 104 Pavel Ya. Groisman, et al.,
Center, The Big One! A Review of the March “Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological
12-14, 1993 “Storm of the Century,” 14 May Cycle over the Contiguous United States:
1993. Trends Derived from In Situ Observations,”
91 See note 50. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5: 64-84,
92 Washington State Department of Natural February 2004.
Resources, Tree Blowdown Aerial Survey: Dates 105 Travis Madsen and Emily Figdor,
Flown March 6-7, 2008, Washington Coast, Environment America Research & Policy
undated. Center, When it Rains, it Pours: Global
93 Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2007 Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme
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~floods/Archives/2007sum.htm, 6 July 2010. 106 Arthur T. DeGaetano, “Time-
94 Maryanne Reiter, Weyerhaeuser Dependent Changes in Extreme-
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Summary, 8 February 2008. Continental United States,” Journal of Applied
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95 $180 million: Erik A. Knoder, Oregon doi: 10.1175/2009JAMC2179.1, 2009.
Employment Department, Storm Damage, 25
January 2008; “possibly more than a billion”: 107 Ibid.
Hal Bernton and Ralph Thomas, “Flood- 108 See note 9.
Damaged I-5 to Stay Closed Until this 109 See note 103.
Weekend,” Seattle Times, 5 December 2007.
110 Ibid.
96 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, National Climatic 111 See note 9.
Data Center, State of the Climate: Global 112 See note 105.
Hazards: January 2010, downloaded
113 See note 9.
from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
?report=hazards&year=2010&month=1, 15 114 See note 105.
July 2010. 115 Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Bruce
97 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hewitson, et al., “Regional Climate
Administration, National Climatic Projections,” in Intergovernmental Panel on
Data Center, State of the Climate: Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The
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?report=tornadoes&year=2010&month=1, 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
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98 National Oceanic and Atmospheric 116 See note 9.
Administration, National Weather Service, 117 Christopher B. Field, Linda D.
Local Service Assessment: 18-23 January 2010 Mortsch, et al., “North America,” in
Arizona Winter Storms, undated. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
99 Ibid. Change, Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Notes 45
Contiguous United States,” Journal of Applied ?report=hazards&year=2010&month=2, 7
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doi: 10.1175/JAM2395.1, August 2006. 161 Ewen MacAskill, “Washington D.C.
147 See note 103. Paralyzed by Snow for Fifth Working Day in
148 See note 146. a Row,” The Guardian, 11 February 2010.
Notes 47
Sets Off Scattered Fires,” Los Angeles Times, 214 See note 211.
24 June 2008. 215 Bettina Boxall, “Spending to Fight
208 Demian Bulwa, “Firefighters Battling California Wildfires Surpasses $1 Billion,”
Hundreds of Blazes,” San Francisco Chronicle, Los Angeles Times, 31 December 2008.
24 June 2008. 216 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
209 California Department of Forestry and Administration, National Climatic Data
Fire Protection, 2008 Lightning Siege Fire Center, State of the Climate: Drought: August
Overview, downloaded from www.fire.ca.gov/ 2007, downloaded from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
index_incidents_overview.php, 6 July 2010. sotc/index.php?report=drought&year=2007&
210 Dylan Darling, “Summer Wildfire month=aug, 15 July 2010.
Battles Costs Astronomical,” Redding Record 217 Ibid.
Searchlight, 23 November 2008. 218 Ya Ding and Kelly Helm Smith,
211 Catherine Saillant and Eric Bailey, National Drought Mitigation Center,
“Push Is on to Stall Goleta Fire Before “Economic Impacts of the 2007 Drought,”
Winds; More Evacuations at Big Sur,” Los DroughtScape, Winter 2010.
Angeles Times, 2 July 2008. 219 Georgia Forestry Commission, The
212 Trevor Hughes, “Wildfires Force Historic 2007 Georgia Wildfires: Learning from
$400M in Cuts at Forest Service,” USA the Past—Planning for the Future, downloaded
Today, 30 August 2008. from www.wildfirelessons.net/documents/
213 Demian Bulwa, “Myriad Wildfires Historic_2007_GA_Wildfires.pdf, 6 July
Pollute Air, Pose Health Risks and Keep on 2010.
Spreading,” San Francisco Chronicle, 27 June 220 Ibid.
2008.