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1 Puebla (Mexico) 19‐9‐17 Earthquake:
A near “repeat” of the M 8.1 Earthquake of 1985
that had devastated Mexico City (19 000 deaths)
A Preliminary Report by
Evangelia GARINI and George GAZETAS
25 September 2017
NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY
School of Civil Engineering
Geotechnical Department
According to USGS: M 7.1 occurred at 13:14 local time on
19 September 2017. Hypocentral depth 51 km.
(A couple of hours earlier an earthquake drill took place in the City, in
memory of the 19 September 1985 earthquake !! )
Source: USGS
Seismological Data
Source: USGS
Source: USGS
The purple line shows the whole
subducting slab as it takes a shallow
dive below Acapulco, levels out
almost to Mexico City, then dives
more steeply into the mantle, and
finally abruptly breaks off at about
500 km depth. The contour lines
indicate wave speed. Blue lines show
where seismic waves traveled faster,
indicating the area is dense (hence is
the slab). Pink lines show where
waves traveled slower, indicating the
area is less dense (hence is the
mantle). [From Perez‐Campos et al.,
2008]
Seismotectonics of Mexico
Located atop three of the large tectonic plates, Mexico is one of the world's most seismically
active regions.
The relative motion of these crustal plates causes frequent earthquakes and occasional volcanic
eruptions. Most of the Mexican landmass is on the westward moving North American plate. The
Pacific Ocean floor south of Mexico is being carried northeastward by the underlying Cocos
plate. Because oceanic crust is relatively dense, when the Pacific Ocean floor encounters the
lighter continental crust of the Mexican landmass, the ocean floor is subducted beneath the
North American plate creating the deep Middle American trench along Mexico's southern
coast. Also as a result of this convergence, the westward moving Mexico landmass is slowed and
crumpled creating the mountain ranges of southern Mexico and earthquakes near Mexico's
southern coast. As the oceanic crust is pulled downward, it melts; the molten material is then
forced upward through weaknesses in the overlying continental crust. This process has created a
region of volcanoes across south‐central Mexico known as the Cordillera Neovolcánica.
The September 19, 2017, M7.1 earthquake in Central Mexico occurred as the result
of normal faulting at a depth of approximately 50 km. Focal mechanism solutions
indicate that the earthquake occurred on a moderately dipping fault, striking either to
the southeast or to the northwest. The event is near, but not directly on, the plate
boundary between the Cocos and North America plates in the region.
While commonly plotted as points on maps, earthquakes of this size are more
appropriately described as slip over a larger fault area. Normal‐faulting events of the
size of the September 19th, 2017 earthquake are typically about 50 x 20 km2 (length x
width). The most damaging earthquake in the history of Mexico occurred on
September 19, 1985, killing nearly 19,000 people.
Structural Damage
Mexico City after the earthquake
(a) Estimated by UNAM
(b) Computed from our 1D Soil
Response Analyses
MEXICO CITY:
Peak Ground Acceleration estimated by UNAM
MEXICO CITY:
Shakemaps of accelerations for 19th September event (much higher values) and the
previous quake of 9th September (smaller values despite the larger magnitude)
Source: UNAM
Spectral response for 0.2 s estimated by UNAM
Source: UNAM
Spectral response for 1 s period estimated by UNAM
Source: UNAM
Spectral response for 2 s period estimated by UNAM
Source: UNAM
Recorded Motion at the UNAM
accelerographic station
0.04
0.02
Component 90
A : g 0
‐0.02
‐0.04
0.055 g
‐0.06 t : s
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
0.06
0.04
0.02
Component 360
A : g 0
‐0.02
‐0.04 0.045 g
‐0.06 t : s
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
0.06
0.04
0.02 Component UP
A : g 0
‐0.02
‐0.04
0.028 g
‐0.06 t : s
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
UNAM Station
0.18
0.15
Component 90
Notice the high spectral
values for periods between
0.12
1 s and 2 s
SA : g
0.09
Component 360
0.06
0.03 Component UP
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
T : s
(b) Analyses of Soil Response
with the UNAM recorded motion
as “base outcrop” excitation
Three idealized (generic) soil profiles are
studied. They consist of Mexico City Clay
with a constant shear wave velocity
VS = 80 m/s
G:γ, β:γ curves functions of the Plasticity
Index, PI = 200, and three different soil
thicknesses :
H = 25 m, 30 m, 40 m
Mexico
City Clay
UNAM
Excitation:
0.055 g
PI = 200
Generic clay properties of simplified analyses: VS = 80 m/s
w = 200 ÷ 400%
UNAM
0.2
surface
0.15 g
base
0.1
A : g 0
-0.1
-0.2
t : s
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0.8
Notice the increase in fundamental
0.6 period from the elastic 1.25 s to the
SA : g nonlinear 1.4 s
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.4 s 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
T : s
UNAM
0.2
0.1
A : g 0
-0.1
0.134 g t : s
-0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1
0.8 Notice the increase in fundamental
0.6 period from the elastic 1.5 s to the
SA : g nonlinear 1.7 s
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 1.7 s 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
T : s
UNAM
0.2
0.1
A : g 0
-0.1
0.09 g
t : s
-0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1
0.8 Notice the increase in fundamental
0.6
period from the elastic 2 s to the
SA : g nonlinear 2.2 s
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
2.2 s
T : s
UNAM
25 30 40
Mexico Clay
1
0.8
SA : g
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
T : s
Comparison between 1985 and 2017
in terms of acceleration time histories
and response spectra
(i) Qualitative Comparison
The two accelerograms recorded in UNAM and SCT during the 1985
earthquake:
Notice the similarity between the UNAM records (of 2017 shown
previously and 1985 shown here), despite the different source
mechanisms, magnitudes (8.0, 7.1), directions (EW, NS), and distances
(400 km, 120 km) !! Also quite similar is the SCT 1985 motion (below)
with the one computed but for H = 25 m (rather than 40 m).
SCT
(H≈ 40 m)
UNAM
0.90g
SCT The response
Sa spectra of the
g 1985 motions
CDAO
T:s
2
(ii) Detailed Comparison
The UNAM recorded motion (component 90): 1985 VS 2017
1985 0.2
0.1
A(t) : g
2017
0 0
0.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.2
0.15
SA : g
0.1
1985
0.05
2017
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
T : s
UNAM SCT
25 40 m
0.2 0.18 g
0.15 Recorded 1985 (H = 40 m)
0.1
0.05
A : g 0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
t : s
-0.2
0.2
0.15 g
0.15
0.1 Computed 2017 (H = 25 m)
0.05
A : g 0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
t : s
-0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
UNAM SCT
25 40 m
1
Recorded 1985
(H = 40 m)
0.8
Computed 2017
(H = 25 m) We expect in 2017
serious but less
0.6
severe damage at
SA : g
locations of H = 25 m
than in SCT in 1985;
0.4
and of shorter
buildings
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
T : s
Potential DOUBLE Ressonance
1.4 s
1.4 s
1.4 s
UNAM SCT
0.2 0.20 g
0.15 Recorded 1985 (H = 40 m)
0.1
0.05
A : g 0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
t : s
-0.2
0.2 We expect completely different
0.15 Computed 2017 (H = 40 m) response at the same location and
0.1 hence, no damage around SCT !
0.05
A : g 0
-0.05
-0.1
0.09 g
-0.15 t : s
-0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
UNAM SCT
1
Recorded 1985
(H = 40 m)
0.8 We expect completely
different response at the
same location and hence,
0.6 no damage around SCT !
SA : g
0.4 Computed 2017
(H = 40 m)
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
T : s
Based on the above results of the soil‐
amplification analyses, the most dangerous
areas in the City for damage to 5 – 10 storey
buildings (due to “double resonance”) are
those with thickness of soft clay, H, of the
order of 20 – 30 meters.
However, whether extensive damage
actually occurred or not, depends of course
on the number and aseismic‐quality of such
(5– 10 storey) structures in the respective
areas.
Contours of equal
thickness of the soft clay
in the Mexico City lake
zone. (by Gonzalez,
2015).
Zones of expected
maximum spectral
response are shown with
yellow (based on our soil
amplification analyses).
Early reported damaged
and destroyed buildings
in Mexico City
Overlaying the
locations of the early‐
reported destroyed
buildings with our
predicted zones of
maximum soil spectral
response.
CONCLUSIONS: Mexico City, 19‐9‐2017
1. The recorded motion at UNAM (Hilly Zone) was very
similar to the motion of the 1985 earthquake. The main
difference: a dominant period of 1.4 s instead of 2 s.
2. Soil amplification analyses of three generic (Lake Zone) soil
profiles consisting of Mexico City Clay with thicknesses H = 25,
30, and 40 meters have shown that the intensity of shaking in
certain parts of the City could have been nearly as severe as in
1985 (but at different locations).
3. It is predicted that the most severely shaken regions are
those with soft clay depth of 25 meters. The buildings that
might have suffered the most are those of 5‐10 storeys.
References
USGS: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ar20#executive
European‐Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): https://www.emsc‐csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=619258
México Servicio Sismológico Nacional (UNAM): http://www.ssn.unam.mx/
GFZ: http://geofon.gfz‐potsdam.de/eqinfo/special/gfz2017skgl/
Templor: http://temblor.net/
The Daily Mail: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article‐4900376/Central‐Mexico‐hit‐7‐1‐magnitude‐quake.html
New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/world/americas/mexico‐earthquakes‐explainer.html
CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/southern‐mexico‐hit‐by‐powerful‐7‐point‐4‐magnitude‐earthquake.html
UNAVCO: https://www.unavco.org/highlights/2017/puebla.html
IRIS: http://ds.iris.edu/ds/nodes/dmc/specialevents/2017/09/19/central‐mexico/
Caltech Techtonics Observatory: http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/outreach/highlights/mase/
The Associated Press: https://www.apnews.com/
Earthquake‐Report: https://earthquake‐report.com/2017/09/19/very‐strong‐earthquake‐central‐mexico‐september‐19‐2017/
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/19/mexico‐city‐earthquake‐anniversary‐1985
Payero, J. S., V. Kostoglodov, N. Shapiro, T. Mikumo, A. Iglesias, X. Perez‐Campos, and R. W. Clayton (2008). Nonvolcanic tremor observed in the
Mexican subduction zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2007GL032877
Martinez Gonzalez, Jose (2015). Subsidencia regional y respuesta sismica en ciudad de Mexico: el sismo del 19 de Septiembre, 1985 (Ms 8.1)
hoy. Congreso Nacional de Ingenieria Si smica. 24‐27 November, Acapulco, Mexico.