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diplomatic strategy in 2018? What can Vietnam expect to achieve and what challenges
will it face in 2018?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a long-established framework for its foreign relations. Its
central tenet is to diversify and multilateralize its relations especially with the major
powers and be a reliable friend to all. Vietnam is also active in promoting active and
proactive diplomacy in multilateral organizations and in pursuing economic
integration. Because of this policy Vietnam was successful in being the unanimous
choice of the Asia bloc for non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council for
the 2008-09 term. It won elections by a commanding majority of votes in the General
Assembly (183 out of 190 votes). Vietnam is now attempting to get re-elected to the
Security Council as a non-permanent member.
Vietnam would like to see a stable balance in relations among the major powers.
Vietnam would like the United States, Japan, and India to counter-balance China. But
now that the Trump Administration has declared both China and Russia revisionist
powers and strategic competitors of the United States, the U.S. is trying to form a
coalition to push back. Vietnam does not want to be drawn into the orbit of any major
power. This will be a major challenge for Vietnam in 2018.
Q3. What objectives will Vietnam pursue with respect to maritime disputes in the
South China Sea?
ANSWER: ASEAN seeks to conclude consultations with China on the Code of Conduct
(COC) in the South China Sea by the end of this year. Vietnam wants the geographic
scope of the COC to include both the Hoang Sa (Paracels) and Truong Sa (Spratlys).
China only wants the southern part of the South China Sea to be included. Vietnam
would like the COC to be legally binding. China does not.
ASEAN is being led this year by Singapore, Singapore is also ASEAN’s country
coordinator for relations with China. This should serve Vietnam’s interests. However,
countries like Cambodia can block consensus. Vietnam too can play this game.
Vietnam should not agree to a COC that goes against it nation interests.
There will be no solution to maritime disputes in the South China Sea this year.
Tensions are likely to rise as the U.S. pushes back against China. The emergence of the
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue including the U.S. Japan, Australia and India signals
greater contestation with China in the maritime domain of the Indo-Pacific Region.
Vietnam should give diplomatic and political support to the Quad.
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea are likely to be overshadowed in 2018 by
developments on the Korean peninsula, especially North Korea’s attempt to develop
intercontinental ballistic missiles capable to mounting nuclear warheads that can
reach the continental United States. Another factor that could affect regional security
is the possibility of rising economic tensions between the U.S. and China as each
responds to tariff rises and other punitive actions by the other side.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.