Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en

approvisionnement lointain
Thibault Hubert

To cite this version:

Thibault Hubert. Prévision de la demande et pilotage des flux en approvisionnement lointain. Autre.
Ecole Centrale Paris, 2013. Français. <NNT : 2013ECAP0012>. <tel-00879853>

HAL Id: tel-00879853

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00879853
Submitted on 5 Nov 2013

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Figure 4: Les piliers d'un outil de prévisions

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89694E\&45B81 +9BD91 4D8E1 DBDE+61 B8E1 56E1 B#9A6E1 3BE1 <0, 1)69D9J1 346E9:DA61 6B#34#)1 61
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6B86E18#556E= 1
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61<PD556BD813456721227=1691<E#B1G1_B8122-=11#D1489134)BA+136E1+946E1B6316E1D8D3B96#AE1
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6B86E1D896AD996896E 1

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348EDE961 :1 35BEED"D6A1 56E1 )A4#D9E1 681 "BD556E1 44386E1 DE:DE1 61 56#A1 6B86 1 !B1 E634861
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3BAB393A61 B#94B9DEB561 4D91 5#D1 )6A699A61 ,B4DA1 #81 E#DD1 8BD1#61 #1 43561 61 )A+DED48J1 691
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6B861D896AD996896 18A4DE19)6E1616B861E4891+"D8DE161
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1 56B861:1A49B9D4815689616154L14D81
1 56B861D896AD996896161D896AD9968916B81
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BAADB891 #AB891 561 +5BD1 ,B))A4DED4886689J1 365561 61 5B1 9BD5561 61 5B1 6B861 691 365561 #1
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5B8E1 5613BE1 ,#861 6B861 1#D1 E#D91 #861 54D1 61C4DEE48J1 )BA1 66)56J1 369961 A65B9D481
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Tableau 1: Classification de Williams
0dab1 :c 0dab1 :^ 1 8)61616B861
!4L1 1 1 4491
ED1 !4L1 1 54L4D81
ED1 ED1 !4L1 )4ABD31
ED1 ED1 ED1 )4ABD3J1LD91D51BADB56156B19D61
1
PD55DBE1)A+3DE6136)68B8911#6136996135BEED"D3B9D4816E915DD9+613BA165561861348ED3A61
1#615613BE1,#8616B8611#D1E#D91#86154D161C4DEE48 15,B#9A6E135BEED"D3B9D48E1A6)A68B8915B1
BADBD5D9+1 61 5B1 6B8614891 4831 +9+1+5B4A+6E 1 !6E1 B#96#AE1 BB891 9ABBD55+1E#A1 361 )4D891
E4891<F4BA1G1DAD68122*=J1<2B6E1G1ID8EB81227=14#16834A61<96B99D6AD1345672122= 1
!6#A135BEED"D3B9D481)6#91U9A61A+E#+61)BA15B1"D#A61E#DB896 1

Tableau 2: Classification de Ghobbar

'81A6BA1#61D3D11#615B16B8616E9135BEED"D+616811#B9A613B9+4AD6E1681"4839D481615B1
BADB9D481#1346""D3D689161BADB9D481615B16B861691#196)E14681689A6156E16B86E1
84818#556E 11

$ !D8449"9879A6BC5B%854B
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227=1B16E9D+11#615B135BEED"D3B9D48161F4BA1+9BD915DD9+61)BA1EB18481)ADE6168134)96161
5B1 BADBD5D9+1 6E1 9AB8EB39D48E 1 .51 B1 4831 488+1 #861 B#9A61 35BEED"D3B9D481 BE+61 E#A1 5B1
BADBD5D9+1 #1 9B#1 61 9AB8EB39D48EJ1 5B1 BADBD5D9+1 61 5B1 9BD5561 61 5B1 6B861 BD8ED1 1#61 5B1
BADBD5D9+1#1+5BD161A+B))A4DED4886689 1
Tableau 3: Classification de Eaves

T1 1 1 T1
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4356E1#9D5DE+E1861)A6886891)BE168134)9615B1EBDE488B5D9+ 125561E61BE61E#A15,DE94AD1#616E16896E1691
5B11#B5D9+161)A+DED4816E34)9+6161
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!B1 +9461 61 )A+DED481 6AB1 B8E1 361 3BE1 B(#E96A1 AB)D66891 EB1 A+)48E61 B#1
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B631 5B1 348E9A#39D481 61 5,DE94AD1#6 1 !6E1 )A4)4ED9D48E1 61 <D54A6E1 345 6721 %*=1 E4891
5,#9D5DEB9D481#15DEEB616)48689D651B6315B1A636A361#1346""D3D6891615DEEB61B+1#B9 1
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5B8E13613BEJ15616E4D816E91#861+9461#9D5DEB891#81B54AD96161)A+DED4816""D3B361
3461 5B1 468861 4D561 4#1 561 5DEEB61 6)48689D65 1 5B8E1 361 3BEJ1 <D54A6E1 345 6721 %*=1
)A4)4E615615DEEB616)48689D6514#561B631)BAB39A61#8D1#6161&A4L8 1
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6E918+36EEBDA61
769961ED9#B9D481A61#D6A916E14356E1)5#E1BAD+E16916E134D8BDE48E161+946E161
)A+DED48 1!6E1D""+A6896E1+946E14D6891U9A6196E9+6E 1!,#9D5DEB9D481,#861+946161
)A+DED481 BB)9+61 :1 )BA9DA1 ,#81 5DEEB61 6)48689D651 ED)561 6E91 96E9+61 )BA1 <D54A6E1 345 6721
%*= 1
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76E1 )A4#D9E1 4D6891 D)5D1#6A1 61 "BD561 34V9 1 !6E1 6AA6#AE1 B#A4891 4831 #81 "BD561
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36A9BD8E14356E1861)6A699BD6891)BE1619ABD96A156E13BE1B631EBDE488B5D9+13489ABDA66891:1,B#9A6E 1.51
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46891488+19B8DE11#,#861B#9A619638D1#61E6AB1)5#E1)6A"4AB8961:1#81B#9A614689 1$13B1#61
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B))A43+61 B631 #861 468861 4D561 69\4#1 #81 5DEEB61 6)48689D651 ED)56 1 ;861 6B861 B631
968B8361)4#AAB1U9A61)A+#61DB1#815DEEB616)48689D6514#56169\4#1#861)ADE6168134)96161369961
968B836 1 D1 5B1 6B861 :1 )A+4DA1 6E91 "4A966891 D8"5#683+61 )BA1 5B1 EBDE488B5D9+J1 561 43561 61
)A+DED4816AB1+B5668915B1)A68A6168134)96 1
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T1 1 1 T1
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E#DB891 56E1 3AD93A6E1 61 6E#A6E1 61 )6A"4AB836E 1 !61 6D556#A1 6E91 68E#D961 E+5639D488+1 A361 :1 #861
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+BA36169148861619A3E148E1A+E#59B9E 176)68B89J156E14356E13B#EB#1861E4891)BE1D89+A+EJ1361
1#D1488616E1)6AE)639D6E1,B+5D4AB9D48E1E#))5+689BDA6E 1
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5,B))A4361 E#DB8961 )4#A1 5B1 )A+DED481 #1 6E4D81 681 A6EE4#A361 #BD861 B8E1 561 3BA61 ,#81 3689A61
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+4AB)D1#61 34836A8+6 1 $1 )BA9DA1 61 5:J1 56E1 B#96#AE1 )A4)4E6891 61 )BA9DA1 61 4356E1 61 )A+DED481
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1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 5#1 "BD91 61 5B1 45B9D5D9+1 61 5B1 6B861 B#1 8D6B#1 +EBA++J1 56E1 B#96#AE1
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)A+3+66891 +DE61 )BA1 <D3D!6D1 345 6721 222= 1 .5E1 4891 489A+1 1#61 5,D836A9D9#61 DD8#BD91 B631
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5B1)A+DED48 1.51"B#919DA16E14356E1A4#E96E1)4#A1346836A1B8E1#8616E19A4DE1D68ED48E1615B1
6B861<D3DJ15B1A4861+4AB)D1#6=J156E1348"A4896A1B#1488+6E1A+6556EJ1)#DE1)A+)BA6A156E14356E1
)4#A1 5B1 BD5561 D8"+AD6#A61 <D3DJ1 561 4BD861 +4AB)D1#6= 1 ;861 "4DE1 5B1 1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED481 (#+61
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61 1#B5D9+1 61 )A+DED48 1 ;81 6E1 )4D89E1 356"E1 6E91 4831 5B1 )ADE61 681 34)961 6E1 )BA9D3#5BAD9+E1 61 5B1
6B861 56E1 #86E1 B)A3E1 56E1 B#9A6E 1 !,+9#61 6E1 A6EE65B836E1 689A61 56E1 D""+A6896E1 6B86E1
)6A691+B56689161B86A1#196)E16819ABBD55B891)BA134)BABDE48 1$#18D6B#1615B1+"D8D9D48161
5,BA+B9D4816E1488+6EJ1<7681345672122/=14891+9#D+15,6""691615B1)A+DED481691615,BA+B9D4816E1
488+6E1 E#A1 56E1 E943>E1 61 E+3#AD9+1 691 5,4AB8DEB9D481 #1 )5B88D81 61 )A4#39D481 691 5,6""691 61 5B1
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4356E161)A+DED481)6#91)6A699A61,B))4A96A1#861)5#E1AB861E9BD5D9+1:15B1)A+DED481B63J1B8E1
36A9BD8E13BEJ1#861)6A961B#18D6B#1615B11#B5D9+1615B1)A+DED48 1;8134)A4DE14D914831U9A619A4#+1
B"D81 ,B4DA1 #861 )A+DED481 5B1 )5#E1 E9B561 B631 #861 1#B5D9+1 +"D8D6 1 5,B#9A61 )BA9J1 D51 6E91 +D66891
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281 6""69J1 56E1 6#1 +946E1 1#61 84#E1 B48E1 )A+E689+6E1 61 "BW481 +9BD55+61 861 )6A6996891 )BE1 #861
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6B86 1 561 361 "BD9J1 5B1 1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED481 A+B5DE+61 B1 61 AB861 3B8361 61 E61 +AB6A1 681
)BA9D3#5D6A1 ED1 56E1 )A4#D9E14891 6E1 )A4"D5E1 61 6B861 3B86B89 1 7,6E91 5B1 ABDE481 )4#A1 5B1#65561 84#E1
)A4)4E48E1#86184#65561+94616134D18BD1#61614356E161)A+DED48 1

 B2C78C7278
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+9461 1#D1 )6A691 61 E+5639D4886A1 5B1 +9461 61 )A+DED481 34AA6E)48B891 561 D6#1 :1 5,4(639D"1
A636A3+1 1#61 361 E4D91 681 96A61 61 1#B5D9+1 61 )A+DED481 4#1 61 AB)DD9+1 ,6+3#9D481 )A4)A61 :1 #861
#9D5DEB9D481D8#E9AD65561)AB9D1#6 1
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1#B89D9B9D6 1 769961 35BEED"D3B9D481 B4891 E,B))#D61 E#A1 5,DE94AD1#61 6E1 488+6E1 DE)48D56E 1 #D961 :1
365BJ184#E1B))5D1#48E1849A61+9461BB)9+61B#14356E11#B89D9B9D"E 1

A< 3! .  $1,$1

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84#E14AD6896A16AE1#861)A+DED481:1BE6161+946E11#B89D9B9D6E11#D1)4#AAB136)68B891U9A61D+1EB5
EB31B6316E1+946E11#B5D9B9D6E 17699613B9+4AD61)6#9168E#D9616834A61U9A61DDE+61681"4839D48161
5B19BD5561,DE94AD1#61DE)48D56 12816""69J1E654811#615,DE94AD1#616E91E#)+AD6#A1:1714DE14#1D8"+AD6#A1:1
*14DEJ156E14356E11#B89D9B9D"E1#9D5DEB56E1861E6A4891)BE156E1U6EJ1D51"B#914831#9D5DE6A156E14356E1
61)A+DED481BB)9+E1B#13BE1B8E1561#651481E619A4#6 1
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)A+DED48 1 !6E1+946E1 #9D5DE+6E1 B8E1 361 3BE1 E4891 )AD83D)B566891 6E1+946E1 1#B5D9B9D6E 1 @4#E1
A6BA48E1 ,B4A1 E,D51 6DE961 #81 )A4#D91 EDD5BDA6 1 D1 3,6E91 561 3BEJ1 #861 34)BABDE481 #1 )A4#D91 4891
84#E136A348E1:1A+B5DE6A15B1)A+DED4816168961B631#81)A4#D91EDD5BDA61)4#AAB184#E14886A1561)A4"D51
)A+DED488651 61 5B1 6B861 691 )6A699A61 5B1 A+B5DEB9D481 ,#861 )A+DED481 )BA1 69AB)45B9D48 1 769961
34)BABDE481)4#AAB1+B56689184#E1D8"4A6A1E#A1561BA3+1#1)A4#D9169148315,+45#9D481)4EED561
6E1 6896E1 <3BE1 ,#81 )A4#D91 61 A6)5B36689= 1 56A8D3A61 )4EEDD5D9+1 ,+9#61 B631 #81 )A4#D91
EDD5BDA6J1E,D51E,BD91,#81)A4#D91D689D1#61BDE1B))BA968B891:1#815491D""+A6891<3BE161)A4#D9168#1
681 )B3>1 4#1 :1 5,#8D9+=J1 561 )A4"D51 61 68961 #1 84#6B#1 )A4#D91 )4#AAB1 U9A61 69AB)45+1 :1 )BA9DA1 61 5B1
6B861#1)A4#D9134)BA+ 1
28"D8J1B8E15613BE14X1D518,1B#ABD91)BE161)A4#D9134)BAB56J15,B8B5E61#13356161D61#1)A4#D91
4D914886A1#861D8"4AB9D481)6A699B89161EB4DA1ED15B16B861B1B#6896AJ1E9B86A14#1DD8#6A 1
!B1)BA9D3#5BAD9+1#1)A4#D91<#A+6161D6134#A961346156E1)A4#D9E13#59#A65E1<5DA6J1#ED1#6J1[=14#1
5481346156E1)D336E1B#944D56E=1)6A691+B56689161)A+3DE6A1561)A4"D51616B861#1)A4#D91
691E481+45#9D48 1
84#E136E13AD93A6E1E4891A6)A+E689+E1E#A15618B56B#17 1
T1 1 1 T1
111
 1

Tableau 4: Classification des demandes en fonction de l'historique des demandes disponible

Etude de l'historique

Présence d'un historique de demande du produit

Oui
Non
Utilisation de méthodes
Utilisation de méthodes qualitatives (et quantitatives)
quantitatives (et qualitatives)

Existence produit similaire

Oui Non
1 à 2 ans 3 à 12 mois 0 à 3 mois Comparaison par rapport à un/des Cycle de vie du produit
plus de (plus de (entre 6 et (Moins de produit(s) similaire(s) Durée de vie longue
deux ans 12 12 6
périodes) périodes) périodes) Durée de
Profil de Produit
Produit de Phase de Phase de Phase de Phase de
demande identique mais vie courte
remplacement démarrage décollage maturité déclin
similaire lot différent

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1

(< D11 /11,!1=%$  .1

769961 +9461 34836A861 561 3BE1 4X1 #81 DE94AD1#61 61 )5#E1 61 %1 4DE1 6E91 DE)48D56 1 56#1
)AD83D)B56E1)BE6E1+3AD6891369961+946148915,B54AD961+8+AB516E91)A+E689+1B8E15B1DD#A61 1
!B1 )A6D3A61 )BE61 6E91 #861 +9B)61 ,D8D9DB5DEB9D481 691 8,6E91 :1 A+B5DE6A1 1#,#861 "4DE 1 25561 348EDE961 :1
D8D9DB5DE6A1 849A61 +9461 B"D81 61 )4#4DA1 5,#9D5DE6A1 61 "BW481 335D1#61 B8E1 5B1 E634861 )BE61 1#D1 6E91
365561,#9D5DEB9D48 1

Figure 5: Algorithme de choix du modèle de prévision1

1
1
1
1
1
1

T1 1 1 T1
1*211
 1

3< 1) $  !  $1

!B1)BE61,D8D9DB5DEB9D48134)4A9619A4DE1+9B)6E134614815614D91E#A15B1DD#A61- 1

Figure 6:Phase d'initialisation de l'algorithme de choix du modèle

de prévision1
1
• 123454647589AB83CD4EEAB89A89ADC59A8
1
!B1)A6D3A61348EDE961:1+"D8DA156E1"BD556E11#6184#E1B5548E1348ED+A6A1)BA15B1E#D961)4#A135BEED"D6A1
849A61 )A4"D51 61 6B86 1 5B8E1 849A61 9ABBD5J1 84#E1 B48E1 A6968#1 %-1 "BD556E1 DE9D8396E1 )4#A1 56E1
6B86E1 3489D8#6E1 #8D1#6689 1 !6E1 6B86E1 DE3489D8#6E1 +B566891 B))65+6E1 6B86E1
D896AD996896E1)6#6891U9A6135BEED"D+6E1E654819A4DE1+946E1D""+A6896E 1!B135BEED"D3B9D48161<PD55DBE1
%07=16E91BE+61E#A15B1BADBD5D9+16915,D896AD9968361615B16B86J1E#D961:1365BJ1<2B6E1G1ID8EB81
227=14891)A4)4E+1#86135BEED"D3B9D4816E16B86E1D896AD996896E1:1)BA9DA1615B1BADBD5D9+1615B19BD5561
61 5B1 6B86J1 691 #1 +5BD1 4681 689A61 56E1 BAAD+6E1 61 6B86 1 <89694E1 345 6721 22=1 4891
+B566891)A4)4E+1#86135BEED"D3B9D481A6)A68B89156E1+5+689E1)A+3+689E1681B(4#9B891561346""D3D689161
BADB9D481#196)E14681,D896ABAAD+6E 129B891488+615B11#B89D9+161A636A361BB891)4A9+1E#A1361
E#(69J184#E186184#E11E46E1)BE1D89+A6EE+E 1;81+9B91615,BA91E#A1361E#(691B1+9+1A+B5DE+1)BA1<&45B81G1
89694E12%2=14#16834A61<7D99#AD134567212%2= 1
1
@4#E1 84#E1 D89+A6EE48E1 4831 B8E1 5B1 E#D961 B#1 E6#56E1 6B86E1 3489D8#6E 1 769961 6B861 B1
)4#4DA1U9A61D""+A683D+61E654811#B9A613AD93A6E 1
!61 )A6D6A1 3AD93A61 6E91 5B1 EBDE488B5D9+ 1 765563D1 )6#91 B4DA1 )5#ED6#AE1 "4A6E 1 65481 5B1 )+AD461 61
)A+DED481<4DEJ1E6BD86J1(4#A=J1EB1DE61681+D68361E6AB1D""+A6896 15B8E194#E156E13BEJ1D51"B#91B5D6A1
5B1EBDE488B5D9+1)BA1#8196E91E9B9DE9D1#61346156196E9161F19#6891H 1
!616#D3613AD93A616E915B1968B836 1769961968B8361)6#91+B566891)A68A61)5#ED6#AE1"4A6E 1
F+8+AB56689J1365563D1E,+9B5D91E#A1#861BADB9D4815D8+BDA61E#A1B#14D8E19A4DE1)+AD46E 1C4#A15B1699A61
681 +D6836J1 #861 34AA+5B9D481 689A61 5B1 E+AD61 3A48454D1#61 691 #861 A4D961 B""D861 6E91 +8+AB566891
#9D5DE+6 1
!61 9A4DED361 3AD93A61 A6968#1 6E91 5B1 34AA+5B9D481 B631 #81 )BAB39A61 69+AD6#A 1 769961 DE61 681
+D68361 E61 "BD91 35BEED1#66891 DB1 #861 A+A6EED481 B631 56E1 488+6E1 61 361 4#1 36E1 )BAB39A6E1
69+AD6#AE1)6A699B891,6)5D1#6A15,+45#9D481615B16B86 1;8166)56135BEED1#616E915B1+9+4 1!6E1
)A4#D9E1346156E14DEE48E1AB"ABD3DEEB896E14#156E1E4#)6E1E4891"4A966891F1+9+4E68ED56E1H 1
28"D8J15611#B9AD3613AD93A616E91561346""D3D689161BADB9D481615B1E+AD6 128146886J1E4D91365#D3D16E91
E#)+AD6#A1:12J16915B16B861E6AB1D961BADB56J1E4D91D516E91D8"+AD6#A1:12J16915B1E+AD61E6AB1D961E9B56 1
1
@4#E1496848E1B54AE15B135BEED"D3B9D481)A+E689+61B8E15618B56B#1 1
1
1

T1 1 1 T1
1*%11
 1

Tableau 5: Classification des modèles de prévision en fonction du type de demande (cas des demandes
continues)
Demande continue
Saisonnalité
Tendance
Influence
Demande avec
Demande avec Demande avec
Demande liée tendance,
saisonnalité et tendance et
Demande à un ou Demande avec saisonnalité et
Type de Demande Demande avec liée à un ou liée à un ou
avec plusieurs tendance et liée à un ou
demande basique saisonnalité plusieurs plusieurs
tendance paramètres saisonnalité plusieurs
paramètres paramètres
extérieurs paramètres
extérieurs extérieurs
extérieurs
C.V. < CV1 > CV1 < CV2 > CV2 < CV3 > CV3 < CV4 > CV4 < CV5 > CV5 < CV6 > CV6 < CV7 > CV7 < CV8 > CV8

Modèle de
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
prévision

1
• FC6274BC647589AB8D79EAB89A824B4758
!B1 E634861 +9B)61 6E91 5B1 3B9+4ADEB9D481 6E1 4356E1 61 )A+DED481 +8+AD1#6E1 :1 3B3#861 61 36E1
"BD556E1 61 6B86E 1 7B1#61 3B9+4AD61 B1 BD8ED1 34)4A96A1 6#1 4#1 9A4DE1 4356E1 61 )A+DED481
E)+3D"D1#66891 BB)9+E1 :1 5B1 "BD5561 348ED+A+6 1 !6E1 4356E1 1#D1 4891 689A6A1 B8E1 369961
3B9+4ADEB9D481 E4891 56E1 4356E1 ED)56E1 965E1 1#61 5B1 )A+DED481 8Bd6J1 56E1 46886E1 4D56E1 61
D""+A689E1 4AA6EJ1 56E1 46886E1 4D56E1 )48+A+6EJ1 4#1 6E1 4356E1 )5#E1 +5B4A+E1 965E1 1#61 56E1
5DEEB6E1 6)48689D65E1 ED)561 <43561 61 &A4L8=1R1 4#561 <43561 61 E459=1 4#1 9AD)561 <43561 61
PD896AE=1R15614356161F4)6A9AJ15614356154DE9D1#6J14#16834A6156E14356E161A+A6EED4813461
561 43561 $9.$ 1 $1 3B1#61 3B9+4AD6J1 #81 84A61 A+#D91 614356E16E91 B""639+1 B"D81 61 A+#DA61 561
96)E1614+5DEB9D4816914831)6A699A61,B4DA1#86148861)A+DED481)5#E1AB)D6689J13611#D16E91561
#91613619ABBD5 1
• 64D4BC647582524A89AB8D79EAB8
76E14356E1E4891B8E1#8619A4DED361)BE61E)+3D"D1#668914)9DDE+E1)4#A1561)A4"D51616B861
61 5B1 "BD5561 :1 5B1#65561 D5E1 E4891 B""639+E 1 !,68E6561 6E1 346""D3D689E1 )6A699B891 61 )BAB+9A6A1 56E1
D""+A689E14356E161)A+DED48E14891U9A614A8+E1B"D8161"B3D5D96A15B1+96AD8B9D4816E1346""D3D689E1
)BA15B1E#D96 1769961+9B)61)6A69161A+#DA6156196)E1,4)9DDEB9D481E)+3D"D1#61B8E15B1)BE61335D1#61
,#9D5DEB9D48 1
1
76E19A4DE1+9B)6E1861E4891:1A+B5DE6A11#6154AE1#6194#96E156E135BEED"D3B9D48E1E4891A6DE6E16813B#E6J1361
1#D1 6E91 ABA61 <BD#1 #861 "4DE1 )BA1 B8= 1 76E1 9A4DE1 +9B)6E1 34AA6E)486891 :1 5B1 +"D8D9D481 61 84E1
D""+A6896E13B9+4AD6E14#1"BD556E 1769961+"D8D9D4816E91D)4A9B89613BA165561B1)6A699A61)BA15B1E#D961
61861E+5639D4886A11#,#861)BA9D616E14356E16DE9B89E1681"4839D481#19)61615B16B86 1763D1B1
)6A699A6161B86A1#196)E1E#A15B1A+B5DEB9D4816E1)A+DED48E16914831)4#4DA19ABD96A1#81)5#E1AB81
84A6161488+6E 1765B16E91)BA9D3#5D3A66891ABD1B8E156E13BE14X15,4)9DDEB9D481E61"BD91B#13BE1)BA1
3BE1 4#1 B8#6556689 1 !61 )A+DED488DE961 B1 BD8ED1 )4#4DA1 E61 3483689A6A1 E#A1 56E1 1#651#6E1 4356E1
E#E36)9D56E1 61 4886A1 5B1 6D556#A61 )A+DED481 691 8481 E#A1 5,68E6561 6E1 4356E1 6DE9B89E 1 !6E1
3B9+4AD6E1E4891BD8ED1+35D8+6E1681"4839D4816E13BAB39+ADE9D1#6E1615B16B86 12556E1E4891"BD96E1)4#A1
U9A61 E#""DEB6891 )A+3DE6E1 )4#A1 861 34836A86A1 1#,#81 84A61 A+#D91 61 4356E1 691 681 683BAB891
56#AE1 )BAB39A6E1 A6E)639D"E1 94#(4#AE1 B8E1 561 #91 61 A68A61 5B1 )BE61 ,4)9DDEB9D481 E)+3D"D1#61 )5#E1
AB)D6 17699613B9+4ADEB9D481B1+9+1A+B5DE+61:1)BA9DA1615,+9#61615B15D99+AB9#A616916E1E)+3D"D3D9+E16E1
4356E1 61 )A+DED48 1 !,B8B5E61 61 3BE1 ,+9#6E1 A+65E1 84#E1 B1 +B566891 )6ADE1 61 +96AD86A1 56E1

T1 1 1 T1
1*11
 1

)BAB39A6E1:1)A68A6168134)961B#EED1D681)4#A15B1+"D8D9D481615B1+94454D611#61)4#A156134D1
6E13B9+4AD6E1A6968#6E 1
;861 "4DE1 36E1 +9B)6E1 "BD96EJ1 561 )A436EE#E1 335D1#61 )A+E689+1 B8E1 5B1 E639D481 E#DB8961 )6#91 U9A61
5B83+ 1

2< 1)% !  $1

!B1)A6D3A61+9B)61615B1)BE61,#9D5DEB9D48J14#1)BE61F1335D1#61HJ16E915,B8B5E61615B16B861#1
)A4#D91 348ED+A+ 1 $1 )BA9DA1 61 369961 B8B5E6J1 5B1 6B861 6E91 D689D"D+61 681 "4839D481 6E1 1#B9A61
)BAB39A6E1 1#61 84#E1 B48E1 A6968#E1 :1 EB4DA161 BDE488B5D9+J1 968B836J1 D8"5#68361 61 5B1 6B861 )BA1
#814#1)5#ED6#AE1)BAB39A6E1696A86EJ1BADBD5D9+ 11

Figure 7: Phase d'utilisation de l'algorithme de choix du modèle de prévision1

#D961:1369961B8B5E6J1561)A4#D916E91B""639+1:1#861"BD556169156E14356E161369961"BD55614891U9A61
B))5D1#+E1 :1 361 )A4#D9 1 76E1 4356E1 E4891 4)9DDE+E1 E)+3D"D1#66891 )4#A1 561 )A4"D51 61 6B861 #1
)A4#D91:1)BA9DA1615,DE94AD1#61DE)48D561691615,B8B5E61A+9A4E)639D61615,6AA6#A161)A+DED481E#A156E1
6A8D3A6E1 )+AD46E 1 !6E1 )BAB39A6E1 6E1 4356E1 E4891 B54AE1 +96AD8+E1 61 "BW481 :1 4968DA1 5B1 )5#E1
"BD5616AA6#A161)A+DED48E1E#A156E1)+AD46E1)A+3+6896E 1!6184A6161)+AD46E1:1)A68A6168134)961
)6#91BAD6A1E#DB89156E1E)+3D"D3D9+E1#1)A4#D91<EBDE488B5D9+1693 = 1@4#E1B48E14E6A+11#,#861B8B5E61
E#A1 56E1 9A4DE1 )+AD46E1 61 96)E1 )A+3+6896E1 488BD91 61 48E1 A+E#59B9E1 3BA1 365B1 )6A691 61 "BDA61
B))BAB?9A615B1968B836 1D1#861EBDE488B5D9+1"4A9616DE96J1B54AE1#861B8B5E61E#A1ED1)+AD46E1B#14D8E1
6E91 A634B8+6 1 #D961:1 3699614)9DDEB9D481 E)+3D"D1#6J1 84#E1496848E1 B54AE1689A61 6#1 691 1#B9A61
4356E1 61 )A+DED48E1 E)+3D"D1#66891 4)9DDE+E1 )4#A1 5B1 )A+DED481 #1 )A4#D91 681 1#6E9D48 1 76E1

C  =1 B"D81 61 A6968DA1 365561 )6A699B891 ,B4DA1 65 FEAFE5 5B1 6D556#A61 1#B5D9+1 61 )A+DED48 1 @4#E1
)A+DED48E1E4891B54AE134)BA+6E1E#A15B16A8D3A61)+AD46161689613488#61<346E9:DA61E#A15B1)+AD461

T1 1 1 T1
1**11
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56E1)+AD46E1E#DB896E1ED16E4D8 11
$1 5B1 )+AD461 E#DB896J1 #861 6E#A61 61 5B1 1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED481 6E91 A+B5DE+61 A361 :1 5B1
34)BABDE481689A61369961)A+DED4816915B16B861A+655611#D1B1)#1U9A616E#A+6 17699616B8614D91
34AA6E)48A61:15B16B861A+6556J16918481B#16896E 1255614D914831U9A61+)455#+616E1A#)9#A6E 156E1
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Tableau 6: Erreur de prévisions (MAD) selon les méthodes utilisées et caractéristiques de la demande
des flux avals de la plate-forme de cross-docking étudiée

usine 1 usine 2 usine 3 usine 4 usine 5 flux aval total

Moyenne mobile 28% 47% 21% 20% 3060% 20%

Lissage exponentiel
31% 53% 23% 18% 158% 18%
simple
Lissage exponentiel
29% 45% 21% 20% 4296% 20%
double
Demande moyenne
en nbs de camion 8 944 28 705 39 937 12 181 4 349 94 116
par mois
Coefficient de
0,56 0,56 0,51 0,53 1,23 0,37
variation
1
@4#E1B48E134683+1)BA1A+B5DE6A15B1)A+DED4816E1"5#1B6313B3#8616E1+946E161)A+DED481
61"BW481D8+)68B896 1@4#E1B48E1+B5668913BAB39+ADE+13B3#8616E16B86E 1@4#E1B48E1B54AE1
4968#156E11#B5D9+E161)A+DED48E1#18B56B#1- 1
1
76E14356E1 61 )A+DED48E1 4891+9+1 #9D5DE+E1 )4#A1 56E1 3D811 #ED86E1 681 E#DB891 5B1+9461 61 34D1
1#6184#E1B48E1)A+E689+61)A+3+6689 1@4#E1B48E14831A6BA+1E#A13B1#61)+AD4615B11#B5D9+1
6E1)A+DED48E1)4#A13B1#614356 1$1)BA9DA1615:J184#E1)4#D48E1E4D91BA6A156143561)A+3+689J1
E4D91 3B86A1 )4#A1 561 43561 561 )5#E1 )6A"4AB891 ED1 361 8,+9BD91 )5#E1 561 U6 1 @4#E1 B48E1 +B566891
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1
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<+9B)6101615B1+9461)A4)4E+6= 1
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1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED481 6E91 +96AD8+61 )BA1 561 3B53#51 61 5B1 F1D4A63BE91 $33#AB31H1
( Demande − Prévision Prévision ) 1 D1 369961 1#B5D9+1 6E91 (#+61 E#""DEB8961 <D$1 e1 %2N1 )4#A1 849A61 3BE1
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1 Figure 10: Algorithme de classification des cas de changement de modèle

1

T1 1 1 T1
17211
 1

Tableau 7: Type de changements de modèle pour les flux avals de la plate-forme de cross-docking
étudiée sur l'horizon d'étude
Période Usine 1 Usine 2 Usine 3 Usine 4 Usine 5 Flux aval total
5 1 2 1 2 3 3

6 1 1 1 1 1 3

7 1 3 1 1 1 3

8 3 3 1 3 1 1

9 4 1 3 1 1 2

10 1 1 2 3 1 1

11 1 1 1 3 1 3

12 1 1 1 3 1 1

13 4 1 3 1 4 2

14 1 3 2 1 1 2

15 4 3 2 2 1 2

16 1 3 4 1 4 2

17 4 1 1 3 4 4

18 4 3 1 4 1 3

19 1 4 3 1 1 1

20 4 3 1 1 1 1

21 4 3 1 1 2 1

22 2 4 2 1 1 3

23 3 1 2 1 1 2

24 3 2 1 1 4 1

25 2 4 1 1 1 4

26 3 1 1 1 1 1

27 3 1 4 4 1 3

28 1 3 1 1 1 1

29 1 1 1 3 4 1

30 1 3 2 3 3 1

31 1 1 4 4 3 2

32 4 4 2 1 1 4

33 1 1 1 1 1 1

34 4 1 1 3 4 1

35 3 1 1 1 1 1

36 1 3 2 1 1 4

37 3 1 3 4 2 3

38 4 1 1 4 1 1

39 4 4 1 1 2 1
1
1
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DD8#6 1
Tableau 8: Analyse des types de changement et qualité de prévision obtenue pour les flux avals de la
plate-forme de cross-docking étudiée

Flux aval
Usine 1 Usine 2 Usine 3 Usine 4 Usine 5
total
proportion de changement total de
49% 54% 80% 63% 74% 66%
modèle
proportion de changement de modèle
43% 49% 57% 57% 66% 46%
utile (e >10%)
proportion de changement de modèle
6% 6% 23% 6% 9% 20%
inutile (e <10%)

qualité moyenne de prévision avec

changement de modèle et sans test 29,7% 40,8% 22,2% 46,5% 940,4% 18,7%
(test_réducteur & changement_utile)

qualité moyenne de prévision avec

changement de modèle si test négatif 29,8% 41,4% 22,2% 45,8% 940,3% 18,8%
(changement_utile)
1
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3B53#5+1615B1"BW481E#DB8961611
6 Qprev(lis_simple) − Qprev(chg_restreint) 3 1
G(chgt_restreint / lis_simple) = 44 11
5 Qprev(chg_restreint ) 2
Tableau 9: Analyse de la qualité des prévisions suivant la méthode utilisée
moyenne lissage lissage avec changement changement
Méthode
mobile simple double modèle modèle restreint
Qualité de prévision
35,1%1 36,7%1 33,0%1 31,6%1 31,6%1
moyenne
Gain avec
11,1%1 16,1%1 4,5%1 /1 0,1%1
changement
Gain avec
11,1%1 16,0%1 4,4%1 -0,1%1 /1
changement restreint
T1 1 1 T1
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)A4#D9E1 4891 5B1 6B861 6E91 A65B9D66891 3488#61 E4891 +B566891 346A3DB5DE+E1 )BA1 56E1
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 !6E16896E1E)+3DB56E1R1 1
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)D336E1<#E#A6J1B33D689J1EBDE488B5D9+J13B9BE9A4)618B9#A6556J1[= 1

Tableau 10: Catégories de pièces de rechanges en fonction du type de demande et de la famille

marketing des pièces

1
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Figure 11: Schéma logistique de distribution des pièces de rechanges

1
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Tableau 11: Analyse de la qualité des prévisions suivant la méthode utilisée pour les différents types
de produits

Produit en Produit en fin Produits Fortes Moyenne

début de vie de vie saisonniers consommations globale

Moyenne mobile 51% 34% 143% 33% 44%

Lissage simple 49% 34% 124% 31% 42%

Lissage double 65% 39% 207% 38% 55%

Lissage triple 14143% 41% 205% 172% 2603%

demande moyenne 265 5 888 14 969 17 269 12 698

Coefficient de
0,7 0,5 1,3 0,4 0,5
variation
1
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4DE1 )4#A1 5B1 EBDE488B5D9+1B88#6556= 1 561 5B1 U61 "BW48J1 5B1 348(#BDE481 #1 "B396#A1 EBDE488D6A1 691 6E1
3BAB39+ADE9D1#6E1615B1)BE61615B8366891<6B861"4A9668913A4DEEB896=1B3861#861D8D9DB5DEB9D481
DB15,DE94AD1#611#D18,6E91)BE1A+65566891A6)A+E689B9D6 1$15,D86AE6J15615DEEB616)48689D651ED)5616E91
365#D1BB8915,6AA6#A161)A+DED4814688615B1)5#E1"BD5611#6511#61E4D915619)6161)A4#D9 1
1
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Tableau 12: Analyse des types de changement et qualité de prévision obtenue pour les différents types
de produits étudiés

Produit en Produit en fin Produits Fortes Moyenne

début de vie de vie saisonniers consommations globale

Proportion de changement
51% 77% 59% 74% 69%
total de modèle
Proportion de changement de
45% 67% 58% 62% 60%
modèle utile (e >10%)
Proportion de changement de
6% 10% 1% 12% 10%
modèle inutile (e <10%)
Qualité moyenne de prév
37% 19,6% 44,6% 18,6% 24,7%
avec changement de modèle
Qualité moyenne de prév
avec changement restreint de 37,2% 20,7% 47,6% 19,9% 25,8%
modèle
1
!B1 E634861 4E6AB9D481 6E91 5B1 1#B5D9+1 61 5B1 )A+DED481 4968#61 A361 :1 849A61 +9461 681
34)BABDE481:15,#9D5DEB9D481,#814356161)A+DED481#8D1#6 1!618B56B#1%*1)A+E6896136E1A+E#59B9E 1
Tableau 13: Analyse de la qualité des prévisions suivant la méthode utilisée
Avec Changement
Moyenne Lissage Lissage
Lissage triple changement de modèle
mobile simple double
de modèle restreint
Qualité de
prévision 44% 42% 55% 2603% 24,7% 25,8%
moyenne
Gain avec
44% 41% 55% 99% / 4%
changement
Gain avec
changement 42% 38% 53% 99% -4% /
restreint
1
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6E1E943>E161E+3#AD9+ 11

Prévisions et demandes

Incertitude prévisionnelle
Prévision

Demande

Historique des prévisions

Figure 12: Prévisions et incertitudes prévisionnelles

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Figure 13: Fiabilisation de la prévision par la mise en place de l'incertitude prévisionnelle

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Figure 14: Bullwhipeffect ou effet coup de fouet

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Tableau 15: Travaux prenant en compte l'incertitude de la demande dans la planification

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5B16B861$13461E#D91611
FU kA = D k − F k 1
;861 "4DE1 D8D9DB5DE+6J1 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 BE45#61 861 3B861 4831 )5#E1 681 "4839D481 61 5B1
B56#A1 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 761 43561 )6A691 ,B4DA1 #81 D896AB5561 61 348"DB8361 "D61 1#65561 1#61 E4D91 5B1
B56#A1615B1)A+DED48 1
76143561)6#9J1+B56689J1U9A61#13461#8143561BD9D"1)#DE1#615B16B861)6#91E4+3ADA61
E4#E15B1"4A6161 D k = F k + FU kA 1

T1 1 1 T1
1-%11
 1

(< D!1! ."1

5B8E1 361 6#D361 4356J1 54D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 A6)A+E68961 5,+3BA91 689A61 6B861 691
)A+DED48J1 AB))4A9+1 :1 5B1 B56#A1 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 7,6E91 4831 #861 B56#A1 A65B9D6 1 $1 #861 )+AD461 J1
54D836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561!"%16E91"4839D481615B1)A+DED481!16915B16B861$13461E#D91611
D k − Fk 6 D k 3
FU kR = = 44 − 1 11 1
Fk 5 Fk 2
$15,D86AE61#143561)A+3+689J15,D836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561A65B9D61B1+45#6A1681"4839D481615B1
B56#A1615B1)A+DED48 176143561,D836A9D9#61)6A691,B4DA1#81D896AB556161348"DB8361BADB561681
"4839D481615B1B56#A1615B1)A+DED48 1
76143561)6#91U9A61#13461#8143561#59D)5D3B9D"1)#DE1#615B16B861)6#91E4+3ADA61E4#E15B1
"4A6161 D k = F k (1 + FU kR ) 1

3< D!1, /1"1

5B8E13619A4DED3614356J154D836A9D9#61)A+DED4886556134)4A961#86134)4EB8961A65B9D61691#861
34)4EB8961 BE45#6 1 $1 #861 )+AD461 J1 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 )6#91 E,+3ADA61 E4#E1 5B1 "4A61
E#DB8961611
6 D − Fk 3 6D 3
FU kM = α .( D k − F k ) + β .44 k 11 = α .( D k − F k ) + β .44 k − 1 11 1
5 Fk 2 5 Fk 2
761 43561 6E91 4831 #81 D961 689A61 #81 43561 BD9D"1 691 #81 43561 #59D)5D3B9D" 1 !B1 6B861
)6#91B54AE1E,+3ADA61E4#E15B1"4A61
6 Fk 3
D k = F k + FU kM 44 1 4#16834A61 D k = (F k + FU kA ) + (F k . FU kR ) 1
1
5 β + α .Fk 2 1
1
!B1D""D3#59+1#143561D961A6)4E61B8E15B1+96AD8B9D4816E1346""D3D689E11691& 1@4#E1B5548E1
B54AE16)AD6A15,D836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561,#861B#9A61"BW481)6A699B891615B13BAB39+ADE6A169161"BDA61
B))BAB?9A615B134)4EB8961BE45#61,#813Y9+16915B134)4EB8961A65B9D61615,B#9A6161
FU kM = A + B . F k 1

)BE1 61 5B1 B56#A1 61 5B1 )A+DED48J1 691 85= e f8 51 5B1 )BA91 A65B9D6J1 3BA1 +)68B891 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 @4#E1
4X185R51A6)A+E689615B134)4EB8961BE45#61615,D836A9D9#61)A+DED4886556J1346E9:DA61861+)68B891

B5548E1 4DA1 B8E1 5B1 E639D481 E#DB8961 5B1 +9461 )6A699B891 61 +"D8DA1 36E1 )BAB39A6E1 :1 )BA9DA1 61
5,DE94AD1#616E16AA6#AE161)A+DED48E 176E1)BAB39A6E1)6#68914831U9A61"D6E1681+9B891+96AD8+E1
B63156E1)A6D3A6E1B56#AE1,DE94AD1#61DE)48D56J14#1U9A618BD1#6E1691E,BB)96A1:15,+45#9D481#1
)A4#D9 1561)5#EJ156E14356E16DE9B89EJ1:1EB4DA156143561BE45#169156143561A65B9D"J1)6#6891U9A61
348ED+A+E134616E13BE1)BA9D3#5D6AE1#143561D9611#6184#E1)A4)4E48E 1

B< 6/,!1$%, =%1

@4#E1B5548E1BD8968B891)A+E6896A136E19A4DE14356E1,D836A9D9#6E1E#A1#8166)5618#+AD1#6 1
C4#A1 #861 D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 488+6J1 84#E1 B5548E1 4DA1 5,+45#9D481 61 5,D896AB5561 B8E1
561#651 E61 9A4#6AB1 5B1 6B861 A+65561 681 "4839D481 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 @4#E1 A69D68A48E1 56E1 B56#AE1
E#DB896E11#D1E6ABD6891B8E1#813BE1A+651:1+96AD86A1:1)BA9DA16E1DE94AD1#6E1,6AA6#AE161)A+DED48161
1

T1 1 1 T1
1-11
 1

Tableau 16: Exemple numérique d'incertitude prévisionnelle

.896AB5561615B1 .896AB5561615B1 .896AB5561615B1

CA+DED481 6B861)4#A1. C 1 6B861)4#A1. C 1 6B861)4#A1. C 1
$E45#61 965B9D61 D961
)BAB39A6E1 %1 *2N1 011T11%N1
21 Q2R1%S1 Q2R12S1 Q2R10S1
1 Q2R12S1 Q7R1/S1 Q2R1%7S1
%21 Q2R1S1 Q/R1%*S1 Q%R12S1
%1 Q2R1*2S1 Q%%R12S1 QR1S1
21 QR1*S1 Q%7R1-S1 QR1*%S1
1 Q%2R172S1 Q%0R1**S1 Q%*R1*/S1
*21 Q%R17S1 Q%R1*S1 Q%0R17*S1
*1 Q2R12S1 QR17-S1 QR170S1
721 QR1S1 Q0R1S1 Q-R17S1
71 Q*2R1-2S1 Q*R1S1 Q*2R1-2S1
21 Q*R1-S1 Q*R1-S1 Q*R1--S1
1 Q72R1/2S1 Q*R1/S1 Q*R1/%S1
-21 Q7R1/S1 Q7R1/0S1 Q7*R1//S1
-1 Q2R102S1 Q7-R10S1 Q7/R10*S1
/21 QR10S1 Q7R1%S1 QR10S1
/1 Q-2R12S1 Q*R10S1 Q-R17S1
021 Q-R1S1 Q-R1%27S1 Q-2R1%22S1
01 Q/2R1%22S1 Q-2R1%%%S1 Q-7R1%2-S1
21 Q/R1%2S1 Q-*R1%%/S1 Q-R1%%S1
1 Q02R1%%2S1 Q-/R1%7S1 Q/*R1%%/S1
%221 Q0R1%%S1 Q/2R1%*2S1 Q//R1%*S1
1
!61 8B56B#1 %-1 D55#E9A+1 )BA1 5B1 DD#A61 %1 84#E1 )6A691 61 4DA1 5,+45#9D481 6E1 9A4DE1 D896AB556E1 61
348"DB836E13689A+E1B#94#A1615B1)A+DED481681"4839D481615B1B56#A1615B1)A+DED48 1
7691D896AB5561BA6148315B1U615BA6#A1)4#A1#861D836A9D9#61BE45#6J19B8DE11#,65561B#68961
B6315B1)A+DED481)4#A156E1D836A9D9#6E1A65B9D6E1691D96E 1

Figure 15: Valeur absolue de l'erreur de prévision en fonction de la prévision pour

trois types d'incertitudes prévisionnelles1

T1 1 1 T1
1-*11
 1

:5E73952A6FAEDA6FD26FAF3A6FAEC923F4DEEFA6FA852!9D28FA574AA
EFA3459A562EFA6C928F439376FA4CF23C
%72

%2

%22

02

-2

72

2

2
2 %2 2 *2 72 2 -2 /2 02 2 %22
2

CA+DED48 .836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561BE45#6
.836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561A65B9D6 .836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561D96

Figure 16: Evolution des trois types d'incertitudes prévisionnelles en fonction des prévisions1
1
@4#E1 B48E1 "BD91 )5#ED6#AE1 )493E6E1 B8E1 849A61 9ABBD5 1 !B1 )A6D3A61 )493E61 1#61 5,481 B1
A6968#616911#D16E91#9D5DE+61B8E15618B56B#1%-16E911#615,D896AB556161348"DB83616E913689A+1B#94#A1615B1
)A+DED4813611#D134AA6E)481:1#861)A+DED4818481DBDE+6 15B8E13613BEJ15,6AA6#A146886161)A+DED481
6E91 B54AE1 8#556 1 769961 )493E61 84#E1 )6A691 61 )4#4DA1 +"D8DA1 #861 D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561
3689A+61 B#94#A1 61 5B1 B56#A1 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1 D1 5,)493E61 8,6E91 )BE1 +AD"D+6J1 5B1 +9461 A6E961
B5B56J1 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 E6AB1 ED)566891 +3B5+61 B#94#A1 61 5B1 B56#A1 61 5B1 )A+DED48 1
769961 )493E61 E61 +AD"D61 :1 )BA9DA1 61 5,DE94AD1#61 6E1 6AA6#AE1 61 )A+DED48J1 681 A6BAB891 ED1 5B1
4688616E16AA6#AE16E918#55614#1)BE 1$D8EDJ1E65481369961B8B5E6J15,D896AB556161348"DB8361)4#AAB1U9A61
+)5B3+1B#94#A1615B1)A+DED481681"4839D4816E1A+E#59B9E19A4#+E 1769961)493E616E91D55#E9A+61B8E15B1
DD#A61%/ 1!,D896AB556161348"DB83616E91B54AE1+3689A+J1346184#E1)4#48E15614DA1E#A15B1DD#A61%0 1

Figure 17: Illustration de l'hypothèse de prévision non biaisée (1)

T1 1 1 T1
1-711
 1

123F4DEEFA6FA852!9D28FAF2A!5283952A6FAEDA
4C9952
%72
CA+DED48
%2
%22
CA+DED48E13689A+6E
02
-2 CA+DED48E13689A+6E
72
2 CA+DED48E1DBDE+6E
<6AA6#A146886
2
D8"+AD6#A61:1A+A4=
2 %2 2 *2 72 2 -2 /2 02 2 %22
2

Figure 18: Illustration de l'hypothèse de prévision non biaisée (2)

)A+DED48865561 D96 1 76E1 )BAB39A6E1 B8E1 5,66)561 )A+3+6891 +9BD6891R 4 g1<D836A9D9#61 BE45#6=1
@4#E1 B5548E1 BD8968B891 )A+E6896A1 346891 4968DA1 56E1 )BAB39A6E1 61 5,D836A9D9#61

691= 4 (hi1<D836A9D9#61A65B9D6= 1

 )B7B528C7A84643#B67A8$846B568CF85AB265'F78C7A8C27A8
BD8968B891 1#61 84#E1 B48E1 +"D8D1 561 43561 ,D836A9D9#61 D96J1 84#E1 B5548E1 4DA1 346891
+"D8DA1E6E1)BAB39A6E1B"D81,D689D"D6A156E1)BA9D6E1BE45#61691A65B9D6 1
76E1)493E6E1+9B891"BD96EJ184#E1B5548E1)4#4DA19AB36A1561AB)61A6)A+E689B8915B1B56#A1BE45#61

B54AE19AB36A1#861A4D96161968B8361615B1"4A61A4D961B""D861<B' 4 ! F j e '=1:1)BA9DA1#18#B6161
615,6AA6#A161)A+DED481681"4839D481615B1)A+DED481B63156E1488+6E1615,DE94AD1#6 1@4#E1)4#48E1

)4D89E14968#1)A+3+6689 1769961"4839D481B""D861A6)A+E68961BD8ED1849A61D836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561
D961615B1"4A61 FU kM = A + B . F k 1 1!B1DD#A61%1D55#E9A61363D 1
769961 +BA361 )6A691 61 3BAB39+ADE6A1 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 )4#A1 #861 )A+DED481 488+6 1
2816""69J156E13BAB39+ADE9D1#6E1,#861)A+DED481:1`c%1861E4891)BE1"4A3+689156E1U6E11#61)4#A1#861
)A+DED481 :1 `c% 1 .51 "B#AB1 4831 6D556A1 :1 +96AD86A1 56E1 )BAB39A6E1 B+1#B9E1 681 "4839D481 61 5B1
)A+DED481 1#61 5,481 E4#BD961 #9D5DE6A 1 !B1 1#B5D9+1 61 5B14+5DEB9D481 +)681 61 5,DE94AD1#61 DE)48D561
3BA1 #81 DE94AD1#61 E#""DEB891 6E91 8+36EEBDA61 )4#A1 4968DA1 #861 4+5DEB9D481 BB891 6E1 )BAB39A6E1
ED8D"D3B9D"E 1

Figure 19: Tracer de la droite de tendance modélisant l'incertitude

prévisionnelle mixte1

T1 1 1 T1
1-11
 1

.51 6E91 D)4A9B891 )4#A1 5B1 E#D961 61 849A61 9ABBD51 61 )4#4DA14+5DE6A1 56E1 6AA6#AE161 )A+DED48E1691
4831 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED4886556E1 )4#A1 )5#ED6#AE1 4ADA48E1 3BA1 365B1 B1 84#E1 )6A699A61 61 +"D8DA1
)A+3DE+6891 5B1 E+3#ADEB9D481 :1 699A61 681 )5B36J1 4831 561 8D6B#1 #1 E943>1 61 E+3#AD9+J1 681 "4839D481 61
5,4ADA48161)A+DED48E1691615B1A+B39#B5DEB9D4816136E16A8D3A6E 1
1
5B8E15613BE14X1D518,1B#ABD91)BE1,DE94AD1#61DE)48D56J156E1U6E1+946E11#61)A+3+66891
)6#68916834A61U9A61#9D5DE+6EJ1E4D91681)A68B8916E1488+6E1E9B8BAJ1E4D91681)A68B89156E1)BAB39A6E1
,#81)A4#D91EDD5BDA6 15B8E194#E156E13BEJ13E11#,#81DE94AD1#61E#""DEB8916E91DE)48D56J15,#9D5DEB9D48161
365#D3D1)6A691613BAB39+ADE6A1B#1D6#156E1)BAB39A6E16811#6E9D48 1
1
@4#E1B5548E1BD8968B891)A+E6896A156E1A+E#59B9E14968#E1E#A16E1488+6E1A+6556E 1

 "45C4B528CF832C#782B7F8AF68F8*7F8C78C27A8
$"D8161B5D6A1849A614356J184#E15,B48E1B))5D1#+1E#A1#81+3B89D55481488+1)BA1C$1348968B891
*21 )A4#D9E1 BB891 6E1 )A4"D5E1 61 6B861 D""+A689E 1 76E1 )A4#D9E1 E4891 B))A4DED488+E1 )4#A1 #861
#ED86161489B6 1@4#E1B48E1+96AD8+15,6AA6#A161)A+DED481:1)BA9DA1615,DE94AD1#616E1)A+DED48E1
6916E16B86E1E#A1#81AB814ADA481<)A+DED4816916B8611#49DD6886E1E#A1#814ADA48161*1B8E= 1
$1 )BA9DA1 61 36E1 A+E#59B9EJ1 84#E1 B48E1 +"D8D1 5,D836A9D9#61 )A+DED48865561 61 3B3#81 6E1 )A4#D9E 1
$B891 )5#ED6#AE1 4ADA48E1 61 )A+DED48J1 84#E1 B48E1 3BAB39+ADE+1 )4#A1 3B1#61 )A4#D91 )5#ED6#AE1
D836A9D9#6E1)A+DED4886556E 1!B1DD#A6121)A+E6896156E18#B6E161)4D89E169156E134#A6E14968#E1)4#A1
561)A4#D919T%1)4#A156E14ADA48E161)A+DED48E1`c*1691`c%0 1@4#E1448E1D3D1B6315,+1#B9D4816E16#1
A4D96E161968B83611#61)4#A1`c*J1$MJ1691&MJ*N19B8DE11#61)4#A1`c%0J1$M/21691&M/J/N 1
1

128F439376FA4FED39FAF3AD$5E7FA574A6F7"A549=52A6FA
:44F74A6FA4C9952 4C9952A69!!C4F23
%222
22
D836A9TA65TGTGBE
022 T`c*

/22
D836A9TA65TGTGBE
-22 T`c%0

22
!D8+BDA6
722 <D836A9TA65TGTGBE
1M12J2/--1c1-J-*% T`c*=
*22 CA+DED481T1`c%0 !D8+BDA6
22 <D836A9TA65TGTGBE
1M12J2*71c1J70 T`c%0=
%22
CA+DED481T1`c*
2
2 22 %222 %22 222 ;FD26FA4C7FA
* 4C9952(

Figure 20: Détermination des paramètres de l'incertitude prévisionnelle mixte sur deux horizons
différents1

T1 1 1 T1
1--11
 1

Tableau 17: Incertitudes prévisionnelles pour chacun des produits de l'échantillon et pour les différents horizons de prévisions
DEA DEA DEA DE5A DE'A DEA DEAA DE1A DE@A DE5A DE1A DE1AA DE1'A 5)F22FA ;FD26FA 1 $F;FA
456793A
7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 7FEA $A 5)F22FA 5)A
7G@A N1 %1 *N1 21 7N1 1 7N1 21 %2N1 %1 %N1 71 %N1 1 %N1 %%1 %N1 %1 %N1 %*1 %%N1 %-1 %%N1 %1 %%N1 %1 'HA AA %71 7N1
7G@A 2N1 *1 2N1 -1 2N1 /1 2N1 %21 N1 -1 -N1 /1 %%N1 1 %*N1 71 %*N1 71 %*N1 71 %*N1 -1 %*N1 /1 %7N1 /1 AHA @A -1 /N1
7G@A N1 %1 -N1 %1 0N1 %1 %2N1 %1 %0N1 1 %N1 %1 %N1 21 *N1 %1 7N1 %1 /N1 %1 *2N1 1 *%N1 1 *%N1 1 'HA A /1 N1
7G@1A %N1 %1 2N1 1 %N1 1 %N1 *1 2N1 %21 N1 %%1 N1 1 N1 %21 N1 %21 %2N1 %21 N1 %%1 %2N1 %%1 %2N1 %%1 5HA AA %*1 -N1
7G@A -N1 %1 N1 21 -N1 21 %2N1 21 %N1 1 %7N1 *1 %7N1 71 %7N1 -1 %7N1 -1 %7N1 -1 %*N1 /1 %*N1 01 %*N1 01 HA 1A 01 N1
7G@5A %N1 %1 %N1 1 N1 1 N1 1 N1 %/1 7N1 21 N1 -1 7N1 *21 7N1 *21 7N1 *%1 7N1 *%1 7N1 *1 N1 *1 HA @A 071 /N1
7G@&A 7N1 1 7N1 1 N1 1 /N1 *1 /N1 /1 %2N1 01 %7N1 01 %7N1 1 %*N1 1 %N1 %21 %*N1 %%1 %*N1 %1 %*N1 %1 @HA &A -1 %%N1
7G@AA %N1 1 %N1 *1 N1 *1 N1 -1 N1 %01 7N1 1 N1 /1 *N1 *%1 7N1 *%1 7N1 **1 7N1 *71 7N1 *71 7N1 *71 HA A 21 /N1
7G@'A N1 %1 7N1 1 -N1 1 /N1 *1 %%N1 *1 %7N1 71 %-N1 71 %/N1 71 %0N1 *1 %N1 *1 %0N1 71 %N1 71 %N1 71 HA A -71 N1
7G@A %N1 %1 2N1 1 %N1 1 2N1 -1 2N1 %21 N1 %%1 N1 1 N1 %21 %2N1 %21 %2N1 %21 %2N1 %21 %%N1 1 %N1 1 5HA AA %*21 -N1
7GA %N1 %1 %N1 %1 N1 1 N1 *1 N1 1 7N1 %%1 7N1 %-1 N1 %01 *N1 %01 *N1 %1 *N1 %1 7N1 %/1 7N1 %/1 HA A %71 0N1
7GA *N1 21 *N1 21 N1 21 /N1 21 %/N1 %1 %0N1 21 %0N1 21 N1 21 N1 21 N1 21 0N1 21 N1 21 N1 21 &HA @A 01 %N1
7GA N1 /1 N1 1 N1 %%1 *N1 %71 *N1 -1 -N1 01 -N1 *01 N1 71 -N1 7%1 -N1 7*1 -N1 7-1 /N1 *1 /N1 *01 HA 'A *-71 0N1
7G1A %N1 *1 %N1 71 %N1 71 N1 /1 N1 %1 7N1 1 7N1 1 *N1 **1 *N1 *1 *N1 *71 *N1 *1 *N1 *71 7N1 *1 HA A 0*1 0N1
7GA N1 1 N1 %1 N1 21 N1 21 N1 %1 %2N1 *1 %%N1 71 %%N1 1 %%N1 1 %%N1 -1 %2N1 /1 N1 01 N1 1 'HA 1A 0*1 7N1
7G5A %N1 71 %N1 21 %N1 %1 N1 *1 7N1 -1 -N1 %*/1 0N1 %21 0N1 %-*1 0N1 %-71 0N1 %-01 0N1 %001 /N1 221 0N1 221 HA 'A %*1 -N1
7G&A 7N1 %1 7N1 %1 N1 %1 /N1 1 0N1 -1 %2N1 01 %%N1 %21 %N1 %21 %N1 %%1 %N1 %%1 %N1 %%1 %N1 %%1 %N1 %%1 'HA &A %*1 N1
7GAA N1 *1 N1 71 N1 71 *N1 01 *N1 %/1 N1 21 N1 71 7N1 01 7N1 1 7N1 *21 7N1 *21 N1 *%1 N1 *21 1HA @A /1 0N1
7G'A %N1 %1 %N1 1 %N1 1 %N1 *1 2N1 %%1 N1 %%1 0N1 %%1 N1 %%1 N1 %1 %2N1 %1 N1 %71 %2N1 %71 %2N1 %71 5HA 'A %*-1 /N1
7G@A %N1 %1 %N1 1 N1 1 N1 %21 *N1 *21 N1 *1 -N1 7-1 0N1 771 0N1 7%1 %2N1 721 %2N1 *01 %%N1 *-1 %%N1 *-1 5HA AA *1 N1
7GA N1 1 N1 1 N1 1 *N1 %-1 7N1 71 -N1 -*1 0N1 /21 0N1 //1 0N1 /1 0N1 01 /N1 *1 /N1 1 /N1 %221 5HA &A 0-1 /N1
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EFU µ , ρ (t , k ) = µ . FU max (t ).(1 − e ρ . k ) 1 1 1 <43561F16)48689D651B1H=1
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)+AD461>B 1
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Figure 21: Evolution de l'incertitude modèle « Exponentiel max »

EFU µ ,ρ (t , k ) = µ . FU 1 (t ).(1 − e ρ . k ) 1 1 1 <43561F16)48689D651%1H=1

B63161 !"11615,D836A9D9#61)A+DED48865561615B1)A6D3A61)+AD46169AB)45+61<!"1)4#A1)4*1= 1
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)A+DED481:1`c%1)6A691,69AB)456A1691613488B?9A615,D836A9D9#61(#E1#,:1`c>14X1k( (D( klmn( = 1>B1
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Figure 22: Evolution de l'incertitude prévisionnelle en fonction de l'horizon d'extrapolation

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Figure 23: Modélisation de l'évolution de l’erreur absolue moyenne et de l'écart type de l’erreur
absolue moyenne en fonction de l'horizon de prévision1

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Figure 24: Modélisation de l'évolution de l’erreur relative moyenne et de l'écart type de l’erreur
relative moyenne en fonction de l'horizon de prévision1
1
1
1
1
1

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Tableau 19: Synthèse des résultats des paramètres des modèles d'évolutions

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1
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Figure 25: Evolution de l'erreur de prévision en fonction de l'horizon de prévision (cas des
pièces de rechanges)1
T1 1 1 T1
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Tableau 20: Synthèse des résultats des paramètres des modèles d'évolutions (cas des pièces de
rechanges)
Erreur relative
Incertitude Demande
mu rho moyenne du modèle
maximale moyenne
par rapport au réel
Moyenne 1,23 4,43 5% 3513 10812
Ecart type 0,54 6,72 7% 8480 20222
1
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Figure 26: Evolution et répartition relative de l'erreur de prévision en fonction de

l’horizon de prévision1
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Décisions
Décisions d’assemblage
d’approvisionnement Décisions
Décisions d’assemblage Décisions
de transport de déploiement
Décisions Décisions
de fabrication de fabrication Décisions
de déploiement
Fournisseurs

Fab
Fab1 Ass
Ass1 Transp
Fab
Fab6

Ass
Ass3
Fab
Fab2 Fab
Fab4
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Ass2
Fab
Fab3 Fab
Fab5

Légende :

Transp
Transp Activité de transport Ass
Ass3 Activité d’assemblage

Fab
Fab3 Activité de fabrication Stock

Flux

Figure 27: Le pilotage de flux dans la chaîne logistique

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Système Demande

Délai de
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1
Figure 28: Schéma d'une politique de gestion des stocks classique
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Figure 29: Evolution du stock avec la politique (r,Q)
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E61 AB5689D9J1 561 )4D891 61 34B861 E6AB1 B996D891 )5#E1 9BA 1 !61 E943>1 34AA6E)48B891 B#1 )4D891 61
34B861B1)4#A1#916134#ADA15B16B861(#E1#,:15B1A+36)9D481615B134B86 1
5#1"BD911#61369961)45D9D1#61E4D91:1E#DD13489D8#J15B13488BDEEB8361#1E943>1DE)48D561:194#91D8E9B891
6E918+36EEBDA61)4#A1U9A61B56A9+13E11#4#81)A4#D91B996D891E481)4D8916134B86 1763D1)6#91689AB?86A1
681 )AB9D1#61 6E1 34V9E1 61 6E9D481 +56+E1 <)BA1 66)561 5B1 DE61 681 )5B361 4#81 EE9361 61 E#DD1
D8"4AB9DE+= 1561 )5#EJ1 B8E1 561 3BE1 4X1 )5#ED6#AE1 )A4#D9E1 )A4D6886891 4#81 U61 "4#A8DEE6#AJ1481 861
)6#91 )BE1 6""639#6A1 #81 A6A4#)66891 6E1 34B86E1 )BA361 1#61 94#E1 56E1 )A4#D9E1 8,B996D86891 )BE1
"4A3+689156#AE1)4D89E16134B861B#1U614689 1

@2? !  =%141,!,$1  =%1@314?1

769961)45D9D1#616E91:1E#DD1)+AD4D1#6 1$#1+#91613B1#61)+AD46161548#6#A1,J1ED15B1)4ED9D481
#1E943>16E36816816EE4#E14#861B56#A1488+6J1B))65+618D6B#161A634)53966891691849+61-J1#81
4AA61 61 A+B))A4DED48866891 6E91 5B83+1 61 B8D3A61 :1 AB686A1 5B1 )4ED9D481 #1 E943>1 :1 - 1 !B1
34B861 6E91 A+36)9D488+61 :1 54DEE#61 #1 +5BD1 ,B))A4DED48866891 . 1 !4+45#9D481 #1 E943>1 E#DB891
369961)45D9D1#616E91488+61)BA15B1DD#A61*2 1

Niveau de stock

S
Q1 Stock net
Q2
Position du stock

t
L L
T T
Figure 30: Evolution du stock avec la politique (T,S)
1
!4BB89B6161369961)45D9D1#61)BA1AB))4A91:15B1)45D9D1#61<F+=16E911#465561)6A69161A6A4#)6A156E1
34B86E1)BA1"4#A8DEE6#AJ13611#D1)6#91A+#DA6156E134V9E1619AB8E)4A916916134B86 1

T1 1 1 T1
10711
 1

.51 "B#91 AB))656A1 1#61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <,-=1 )A+E68961 B#EED1 36A9BD8E1 D8348+8D689E 1 281 6""69J1 4B4A1
369961)45D9D1#616E91OB6#56O1:154D89+AD6#A14#861)+AD46161A+DED48J1483J1#861BADB9D481D8E9B89B8+61
615B16B8615BDEE61561EE9361D8E68ED561<:15B1D""+A68361615B1)45D9D1#61<F+=11#D16E91)5#E1A+B39D61
#1 "BD91 61 E481 E#DD1 3489D8#= 1 561 )5#EJ1 B8E1 36A9BD8E1 3BEJ1 561 A634)53966891 E61 "BD91 681 )69D96E1
1#B89D9+EJ13,6E91:1DA611#,:13B1#61)+AD46J1ED15618D6B#161E943>1BDEE61U619A3E1)6#16816EE4#E161
-J1#86134B8614D91U9A615B83+61)4#A1B996D8A61-1U61ED15B11#B89D9+16811#6E9D4816E919A3E1)69D96 111
<PD5E481%*7=16E915,#816E1)A6D6AE1:1B4DA1+9#D+156E1)45D9D1#6E1<F+=1691<,-=1681)A+E683614#861
6B861+96AD8DE96 1CBA15B1E#D96J1B#1+#916E1B88+6E12J136E1)45D9D1#6E14891+9+1+654))+6E1)4#A1
561 3BE1 4#861 6B861 E943BE9D1#61 )BA1 <3BA"1 %=J1 <IBA5D81 %-2=J1 <.56BA91 %-7=1 691 <EB561 G1
PD9D81%-*= 1

@0? !  =%1@414?1

5B8E1369961)45D9D1#61:1E#DD13489D8#J13E11#615B1)4ED9D481#1E943>16E36816816EE4#E1#1E6#D5161
34B861 J1 481 A634)53961 5B1 )4ED9D481 #1 E943>1 (#E1#,:1 #81 8D6B#1 61 A634)53966891 - 1
7489ABDA66891 :1 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <F+=1 4X1 5B1 1#B89D9+1 34B8+61 6E91 "D6J1 B631 369961 )45D9D1#6J1 5B1
34B8616E91619BD5561BADB56 1!4+45#9D481#1E943>1E#DB891369961)45D9D1#616E91488+61)BA15B1DD#A61
*% 1

Figure 31: Evolution du stock avec la politique (s,S)

1
.51 "B#91 A6BA1#6A1 1#61 ED1 94#96E1 56E1 6B86E1 E4891 #8D9BDA6EJ1 56E1 34B86E1 E4891 5B83+6E1
6B3966891 1#B81 5B1 )4ED9D481 #1 E943>1 B996D891 561 8D6B#1J1 5B1 1#B89D9+134B8+616E91 B54AE1 "D61 691
655616E91+B561:1-/J184#E1A69A4#48E1B54AE15B1)45D9D1#61<F+=1+3AD961)A+3+66891<B631F5)55695+5)5-/
= 1!613BE1)BA9D3#5D6A1615B1)45D9D1#61<-=14X156E16B86E1E4891#8D9BDA6E1691561E6#D516134B8616E91
96511#611M1-%J16E91B))65+1)45D9D1#61:54A5BAEB675<B))65+61B#EED1B8E15B15D99+AB9#A61B854EB48861
)45D9D1#6506354A= 176)68B89J1ED156E16B86E1861E4891)BE1#8D9BDA6EJ15B11#B89D9+134B8+61)4#A1
A634)5+96A15618D6B#161E943>E1:1-16E91BADB561691655616E91E#)+AD6#A614#1+B561:1+5)5-/ 11
!4D8348+8D6891 61 369961 )45D9D1#61 6E91 5B1 34)56D9+1 61 5B1 )A43+#A61 61 +96AD8B9D481 6E1
)BAB39A6E14)9DB#11691- 11
<75BA>1G13BA"1%-2=1691<IBA5D81%-2=1"4891)BA9D616E1)A6D6AE1:1B4DA1+9#D+15B1)45D9D1#61<-= 1CBA1
BD556#AEJ1<FA4EE1G1EBAADE1%/*=1691<&#AB34991G1B89D>#BA1%*=1E61E4891D89+A6EE+E1+B566891:15B1
)45D9D1#61<-= 1.5E14891+9#D+16E1)45D9D1#6E1#19)61<-=1:19AB6AE1#861B8B5E61BE+61E#A15B19+4AD616E1
"D56E14B996896 11

T1 1 1 T1
1011
 1

@A? !  =%1@31214?1

5B8E1369961)45D9D1#61:1E#DD1)+AD4D1#6J156E16#1)45D9D1#6E1<F+=1691<,-=1E489134D8+6E 12816""69J1
:15B1"D81613B1#61)+AD46161E#DD1,J14816BD8615B1)4ED9D481#1E943> 1'81861)BEE61#86134B861
1#61ED1369961)4ED9D4816E91D8"+AD6#A61:1#81E6#D516134B861849+1F 1!B11#B89D9+134B8+61B1)4#A1
#9161AB686A15B1)4ED9D481#1E943>1:1#818D6B#161A634)53966891- 1!4+45#9D481#1E943>1E#DB891

Niveau de stock

S
Q1 Stock net
Q2
Position du stock

r
t
L T L
T T

Figure 32: Evolution du stock dans la politique (T,r,S)

369961)45D9D1#616E91488+61)BA15B1DD#A61* 1
CBA1AB))4A91:15B1)45D9D1#61<,-=J154BB89B6161369961E9AB9+D616E911#465561)6A6914+D96A161)BEE6A1
6E134B86E1619A4)1)69D9619BD5561ED15B16B861)68B8915B1)+AD461B1+9+19A3E1"BD56 1
.516E91:18496A11#615B1)45D9D1#61<J-=16E91#813BE1)BA9D3#5D6A1615B1)45D9D1#61<,F-=11#D134AA6E)481B#1
3BE1 4X1 5B1 )+AD461 61 E#DD1 T 19681 6AE1 A+A4 1 5483J1 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <,F-=1 )6#91 U9A61 348ED+A+61 3461
#8616AED481)+AD4D1#61615B1)45D9D1#61<J-= 1C4#A15613BE14X1 r = S − 1 J184#E1A69A4#48E1+B5668915B1
)45D9D1#61<,J-= 11

@B? !  =%1@31212?1

5B8E1369961)45D9D1#61:1E#DD1)+AD4D1#6J148134D86156E16#1)45D9D1#6E1<F+=1691<,-= 12816""69J1481
A64D91)+AD4D1#6689154+9B91#1E943>1691:13B1#61)+AD461,J1ED15B1)4ED9D481#1E943>16E91E#)+AD6#A61:1
#81 E6#D51 61 34B861 FJ1 B#3#861 34B861 8,6E91 5B83+6J1 BDE1 ED1 5B1 )4ED9D481 #1 E943>1 6E3681 681
6EE4#E1#1E6#D51FJ148134B861#8611#B89D9+1"D61+1<DD#A61**= 11

Niveau de stock

Q Stock net
Q Position du stock

r
t
L T T L
T

Figure 33: Evolution du stock dans la politique (T,r,Q)

T1 1 1 T1
10-11
 1

769961)45D9D1#616E91)A6E1#61EDD5BDA61:15B1)45D9D1#61<,F-=J1EB#"11#6154B))A4DED48866891B8E1361
3BE1 E61 "BD91 )BA1 6E1 1#B89D9+E1 "D6E 1 561 )5#EJ1 369961 )45D9D1#61 )6A691 B#EED1 4+D96A1 61 )BEE6A1 6E1
34B86E1619A4)1)69D9619BD5561ED15B16B861)68B8915B1)+AD461B1+9+19A3E1"BD5613461346E91561
3BE1B8E15B1)45D9D1#61<,-= 1
@4#E1 448E1 D681 1#61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <F+=1 A6)A+E68961 #81 3BE1 )BA9D3#5D6A1 61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <,F+=1
54AE1#615B1)+AD46161E#DD1,596816AE1A+A4 1
56148E1A63#6D5E1D5D4AB)D1#6E1E#A156E1)45D9D1#6E1616E9D4816E1E943>E135BEED1#6E1E4891488+E1
)BA1<EB561G1PD9D81%-*=J1<D56A1G1C696AE481%0=J1<_D)>D81222=1691<$El96A122-= 11

 1AD97954BC5B7-5B58686B
!61 491 OIB8B8O1 ED8D"D61 O3BA96O1 681 (B)48BDE1 691 "BD91 A+"+A68361 B#1 +3B8DE61 1#D1 348EDE961 :1
B99B36A1#8613BA961:1#861)D3361<4#1)5#E1+8+AB566891:1#81549161)D336E=J1B#94ADEB891E4815B8366891
B8E1#861+9B)6161"BAD3B9D48 1
!6E1)A6D6AE19ABB#1)BA5B891#1EE9361IB8B81E489136#1)A+E689+E1)BA1<#D4AD13456721%//=1
691<ID#AB1G186ABB1%0%=1:15B1"D816E1/21+3ADB89156E1EE936E161)A4#39D4818449B1691"BDEB891561
)4D891E#A156184#6B#1EE9361IB8B81DE1681)5B36 15B8E13611#D1E#D9J184#E1B5548E1+3ADA61561)AD83D)6161
"4839D48866891615B1)45D9D1#61IB8B8 1
!B1DD#A61*71<&BBD122=1D55#E9A61561)AD83D)6161"4839D48866891615B1)45D9D1#61IB8B81)4#A1#81
EE9361:16#1+9B6E 1

Cycles des cartes

Carte détachée Carte attachée

Etage 1 Etage 2
K1 K2 Demande

Stock de pièces avec cartes Accumulation de cartes

Accumulation de demandes non satisfaites Point de contrôle

Figure 34: La politique Kanban dans un système à deux étages

!6E1)BAB39A6E161369961)45D9D1#61616E9D481E489156E184A6E1613BA96EJ111)4#A13B1#61+9B615
EB3B891 1#61 B8E1 369961 )45D9D1#6J1 #81 84A61 61 3BA96E1 6E91 BEE43D+1 :1 3B1#61 +9B6 1 !4AE1#,#861
6B861 E61 )A+E68961 B#1 6A8D6A1 +9B61 <+9B61 =J1 ED1 #861 )D3361 B631 #861 3BA961 6E91 )A+E68961 B8E1 561
E943>J15B16B8616E91EB9DE"BD9616915B13BA9616E91+9B3+61)4#A1U9A619AB8EDE61681B489 17699613BA961
)A4)B615B16B861B#1)4D891613489AY561)A+3+689 1$13618D6B#J1ED1#861)D33616E91)A+E6896J1EB13BA961
6E91+9B3+61<3BA9611#D15#D1D6891#1)A6D6A1EE9361B8E1849A6166)56=1655616E91A6)5B3+61)BA15B1
3BA9611#D1B19AB8EDE15B16B8616915B1)D33616E915B83+61681"BAD3B9D481B8E15616A8D6A1+9B6 1!B13BA961
+9B3+61 6E91 B54AE1 9AB8EDE61 681 B489J1 )A4)B6B891 :1 E481 94#A1 5B1 6B86 1 761 +3B8DE61 )6#91
A64896A1BD8ED194#9615B13B?86 176)68B89J1E,D51BAAD611#,#861)D3361861E4D91)BE1DE)48D561:1#81+9B6J1
B#3#861 3BA961 8,6E91 9AB8EDE6 1 !6E1 3BA96E1 61 5,+9B61 681 1#6E9D481 E,B33##56891 691 5,D8"4AB9D481 1#D1
+35683615B1)A4#39D4816E91541#+61:13618D6B#1615B13B?86 1
!B1 )45D9D1#61 IB8B81 )6A691 #861 6D556#A61 344AD8B9D481 689A61 56E1 +9B6EJ1 8,B#94ADEB891 5B1
"BAD3B9D481 :1 3B1#61+9B61 1#61 ED1 #861 )D3361 B1+9+16""639D66891 348E4+61 681 BB51 61 3691 +9B6 1
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T1 1 1 T1
10/11
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)4#A1 5B1 )45D9D1#61 :1 E943>1 84D8B5 1 !4AE1#61 5,+9B61 A6)A+E68961 94#961 5B1 3B?861 61 )A4#39D48J1 561
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BB5 1 761 3BE1 )BA9D3#5D6A1 61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 IB8B81 6E91 B#EED1 3488#1 E4#E1 561 841 61 7'@P.C1 <7'@E9B891
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&6B#34#)1619ABB#19ABD9B891615B1)45D9D1#61IB8B814891+9+1+654))+E16)#DE1E481B))BAD9D48 1
;861A6#61+9BD55+61615B15D99+AB9#A61E#A15B1)45D9D1#61IB8B816E91488+61)BA1<&6A>561%= 154B#9A6E1
9ABB#1965E11#61<&#AB34991G1B89D>#BA1%*=J1<DA6D813456721%=1691<5B556A1G1!D6A4)454#E1222=1
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61 )45D9D1#6E1 BE+6E1 E#A1 561 EE9361 IB8B8J1 96556E1 1#61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 IB8B81 F+8+AB5DE+1 <&#AB34991
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1

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Prévisions de la demande

Commandes fermes
temps
1
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Pilotage de flux

Pas d'information avancée Information avancée

sur la demande sur la demande

Pilotage par renouvellement Pilotage par les besoins

de la consommation futurs

Commandes
Prévisions
fermes

Production par anticipation Production à la commande

Politique MRP
Politiques de gestion Politiques basées sur
Politiques de gestion de Politique MRP
de stock classiques le système Kanban
stock sur prévisions
1
Figure 36: Classification des politiques de pilotage de flux en fonction du type de l’information sur la
demande
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Aucune information Prévisions de la demande Commandes fermes

Pilotage par renouvellement Pilotage par les besoins futurs

de la consommation

Production par anticipation Production à la commande

1

Figure 37: Information sur la demande et méthodes de pilotage

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L 61!61+5BD1,B))A4DED48866891"D6R1
α 61!61)BAB39A61,4ADA48161E+3#ADEB9D4811#6184#E1#9D5DE48E1B8E1561435619-- 1761)BAB39A61
A6)A+E689615B19BD5561615,DE94AD1#61)ADE168134)961B8E15,+9#616E16AA6#AE1)6A699B89161+"D8DA15B1
E+3#ADEB9D481"#9#A6 1C5#E1B5)B16E91)69D9J1)5#E15,4ADA4816E9134#A916914D8E1481BA6AB1,DE94AD1#61681
348ED+AB9D48 1 $1 5,D86AE6EJ1 )5#E1 B5)B1 6E91 AB81 )5#E1 5B1 9BD5561 61 5,DE94AD1#61 )ADE1 681 34)961 E6AB1
D)4A9B8961R1
nr 61!6184A6161A#)9#A6161E943>1E#A15,4ADA481619BD5561B5)B1)A+3+689J13,6E91:1DA61#AB89156E1
B5)BE1)+AD46E1)A+3+6896ER1
NEA61!6184A61,6AA6#AE1B336)9B56E1E#A15,4ADA481619BD5561B5)B1)A+3+689J13,6E91:1DA61E#A1
56E1B5)BE1)+AD46E1)A+3+6896ER1
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E#A15,4ADA481B5)B1+9#D+ 1
6 nr 3
ASL = 1 − 4 1 1
5α 2
TSL 61!619B#161E6AD3613D56R1
ATSL61!619B#161E6AD3613D561A+65R1
UC61!,#8D9+16134B861
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O i 61!B134B861615B1)+AD461 i J1
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UI i 61!61E943>1#9D561:15B1)+AD461 i J1
CE i 61!,6AA6#A13##5B9D61615B1)+AD461 i J1
SSi 61!61E943>161E+3#AD9+1615B1)+AD461 i J1
RO i 61!B134B861A+65561615B1)+AD461 i J1

(< F$ $1&5 .11$ $11,!1

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6E91B54AE1D""+A6891#19B#161E6AD3613D56 1!B1D""D3#59+16E914831,B4DA1#86148861A4#E96EE61E#A1561
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D8DDE6A15B1468861#18D6B#161E943> 1
OF = min( mean inventory ) 1

2< 3$ $1

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1
ASL > 95% 1
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A+651 <$!=1 61 N1 C4#A1 365BJ1 84#E1 B48E1 B1 "D+1 #81 9B#1 61 E6AD361 3D561 <8!=1 1#D1 6E91 +"D8DE1 )BA1
5,+1#B9D481<1*1= 17618!184#E1)6A69168E#D96161+96AD86A156184A61,6AA6#AE1B336)9B56E1<@2$=1E#A1
5,4ADA481,+9#611#D16E91+"D8D1)BA15,+1#B9D481<171= 1
6 NEA 3
TSL ≥ 1 − 4 1 (3)
5 α 2
NEA = 7α .(1 − TSL)8 (4)

CA6848E1#8166)561D55#E9AB9D" 1748ED+A48E15613BE14X1 α = 35 1691 TSL = 90% 15B8E13613BEJ184#E1

496848E1 NEA = 7α .(1 − TSL)8 = 73.58 = 3 1 @4#E1 B5548E1 B54AE1 )4#4DA1 B336)96A1 56E1 *1 6AA6#AE1 61
)A+DED481 3##5B9D61 56E1 )5#E1 D)4A9B896E1 B8E1 5B1 +"D8D9D481 61 849A61 E943>1 61 E+3#AD9+1 4831 B8E1
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Figure 40: Présentation du TSL1

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ATSL = 1 − 4 1 (5)
5 α 2
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Figure 42: Présentation du niveau de stock de sécurité à horizon (HSS) pour quatre paramètres TSL
différents et un 1=21jours1
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Tableau 21: Présentation des résultats des simulations pour le modèle HSS
Paramètre de Paramètre d'horizon
7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105 112 119 126
TSL 1
Stock - modèle HSS 1611 1649 1638 1657 1645 1647 1660 1666 1668 1647 1639 1636 1643 1629 1621 1621 1613 1611
70% ASL 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 87% 88% 89% 89% 89% 90% 90% 90% 90% 91% 91% 91% 91%
ATSL 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 71% 71% 71%
Stock - modèle HSS 1757 1779 1769 1803 1829 1799 1802 1798 1816 1824 1803 1816 1810 1822 1833 1816
80% ASL 87% 88% 88% 89% 90% 90% 91% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 93% 93% 94% 94%
ATSL 81% 82% 80% 81% 82% 80% 81% 80% 81% 81% 80% 81% 80% 80% 81% 80%
Stock - modèle HSS 1692 1787 1812 1843 1858 1877 1889 1909 1929 1908 1913 1909 1918 1930 1944 1941 1941 1944
85% ASL 85% 87% 88% 89% 90% 90% 91% 92% 92% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 94% 95% 95% 95%
ATSL 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86%
Stock - modèle HSS 1859 1884 1958 1969 1976 2027 2032 2024 2012 2038 2042 2040 2066 2054 2055 2073 2076
90% ASL 89% 89% 91% 91% 91% 92% 93% 93% 93% 94% 94% 94% 95% 95% 95% 96% 96%
ATSL 93% 90% 93% 91% 90% 92% 91% 90% 90% 91% 90% 90% 91% 90% 90% 91% 90%
Stock - modèle HSS 1957 2024 2089 2082 2137 2176 2156 2183 2214 2194 2226 2243 2227 2270 2291 2266
95% ASL 90% 92% 93% 92% 93% 94% 94% 94% 94% 95% 95% 95% 96% 96% 96% 96%
ATSL 95% 96% 97% 95% 96% 96% 95% 96% 96% 95% 96% 96% 95% 96% 96% 95%
Stock - modèle HSS 1856 1970 2065 2135 2202 2254 2313 2354 2402 2432 2469 2501 2526 2548 2576 2588 2619 2655
100% ASL 88% 90% 92% 93% 94% 94% 95% 95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97%
ATSL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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Figure 46: Illustration de la problématique de l'approvisionnement lointain chez PSA

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Figure 47: Illustration de l’incertitude sur la demande en approvisionnement lointain chez PSA
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Figure 48: Fiabilité des prévisions

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"4#A8DEE6#AE1 )4#A1 5,B))A4DED48866891 6E1 )D336E 1 769961 9B561 B1 +9+1 348E9A#D961 E#D961 :1 #861 +9#61
E9B9DE9D1#616916)+AD689B56J1BE+61E#A1#81+3B89D55481A6)A+E689B9D"161)D336E1348E4+6E1681#ED861
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489A+13D6EE4#E 1
Tableau 22: Extrait de l'abaque C&R de PSA
Journalier Hebdomadaire
CMJ/K Maxi J/K Mini J/K CMJ/K Maxi J/K Mini J/K
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 10 0 1 23 0
2 14 0 2 35 0
3 17 0 3 45 0
4 20 0 4 54 0
5 23 0 5 63 0
6 25 0 6 72 0
7 28 0 7 80 0
8 30 0 8 88 0
9 32 0 9 96 0
10 35 0 10 103 0
11 37 0 11 111 0
… … … … … …
2000 2297 1703 2000 10308 9692
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Figure 49: Illustration du calcule de coefficient de flexibilité

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1#B89D9+E1 :1 B(4#96A1 B#1 )A+DED48EJ1 84#E1 496848E1 5,+45#9D481 #1 E943>1 B8E1 5B1 6A8D3A61 3454886 1
74615,D55#E9AB9D481B8E15618B56B#1*J184#E16EEB48E1B631#81346""D3D68912J%1681E#))4EB8911#61561
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Tableau 23: Exemple 1 pour le calcul du coefficient de flexibilité

$#13489ABDA6J1ED184#E1"BDE48E15613B53#51B63156E1U6E1488+6E16E16E4D8E1)A+DED48865E16916E1
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Tableau 24: Exemple 2 pour le calcul du coefficient de flexibilité

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346""D3D6891 9651 1#61 56E1 B56#AE1 61 5B1 34548861 61 A4D961 #1 8B56B#1 *1 <&6E4D81 c7G91 ^1 !;'1 c1 943>=1
E4D6891E#)+AD6#A6E14#1+B56E1:12 1

Figure 50: recherche dichotomique

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7461 )4#A1 5,49689D481 6E1 A+E#59B9E1 9+4AD1#6EJ1 84#E1 B48E1 A+B5DE+1 6E1 ED#5B9D48E1 E#A1 56E1
+3B89D5548E1 61 488+6E1 A+6556E1 4891 84#E1 DE)4ED48E 1 @4#E1 B48E1 B))5D1#+1 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <8JE=1 B631
3461 )+AD461 8M% 1 !6E1 A+E#59B9E1 4891 +9+1 34)BA+E1 :1 36#1 4968#E1 )BA1 849A61 )BA968BDA61 691 B#1
8Y9A6E 1

A< 3, $1$1!1,1'CC11!1!  =%1@8I?1

!B134)BABDE481689A615B1)45D9D1#61<8JE=16915,68E65616E1B#9A6E1+946E1616E9D4816E1E943>E1
6E91EB8E1+1#D41#6 1!6E1)BAB39A6E1#9D5DE+E1E4891#861)+AD46161A+DED48161%1<8M%=161"BW481:134556A1
B#13489ABD896E1D8#E9AD6556E1D89+A+6E1B8E1849A6143561:1EB4DA1#86134B8611#49DD6886 1@4#E1
B48E1+"D8D1561)BAB39A6161E943>11615B1"BW481E#DB896161
S = m.( L + 1) + SS 1
A:55
m 345765C36BC35A3BB356F5;ADF1
L est le délai d’approvisionnement
SS = Φ −1 (TSL).σ D . ( L + 1) est le stock de sécurité où TSL est le taux de service cible,
Φ −1 (TSL ) est la fonction inverse de la loi normale centrée réduite et σ D est l’écart-type de la
demande journalière.
!B154D1615B16B8616E913B53#5+61E#A1#814ADA4816171(4#AE1</1E6BD86E= 1
#D961B#1ED#5B9D48E1E#A1#81+3B89D5548161*21)A4#D9E1E#A1#814ADA48196)4A65161)5#E161*1B8E1
:15B1BD55611#49DD6886J184#E1496848E15B1DD#A61%1A6)A+E689B8915,+45#9D481#1E943>1)4#A1#819B#161
E6AD361 3D561 B55B891 61 2N1 :1 N 1 !61 E943>1 )ED1#61 4681 +45#61 5#D1 61 %*221 #8D9+E1 <8!M2NJ1
$!M-2N=1:1)A3E161%7212221#8D9+E1<8!MNJ1$!M%22N= 1
!B134)BABDE481689A6156E1A+E#59B9E14968#E1B63156143561<8J1E=169156143561E16E91)A4)4E+61
B8E15B1DD#A61 1@4#E114D48E135BDA668915,BB89B61#143561E1E#A156143561<8J1E= 12816""69J1

3D7"A6FAF498FAIA!*358>(A574A69!!C4F23A3D7"A6FAF498FA89$EF

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2J2 21222J2 721222J2 -21222J2 021222J2 %221222J2 %21222J2 %721222J2 %-21222J2

9B#161E6AD361A+65

Figure 51: Présentation du taux de service réel et du stock physique moyen pour
différents taux de service cible (50% à 99%) pour le modèle (T, s)1

T1 1 1 T1
1%11
 1

)4#A1 #81 9B#1 61 E6AD361 A+651 D689D1#61 61 NJ1 561 E943>1 )ED1#61 6E91 DDE+1 )BA1 ED1 681 )BEEB891
,68DA48112221:14D8E16171222 1

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358>JA574AEDA5E93947FA*.(AF3AEFA562EFA/%%
%
2J
2J
2J0
2J0
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2J
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2 2222 72222 -2222 02222 %22222 %2222 %72222

43561E1<9B#1E6AD3613D561M1%22N= C45D9D1#61<%JE=

Figure 52: Comparaison "Taux de service et niveau moyen de stock" pour la

politique (1,s) et le modèle HSS1
769961B8B5E61489A611#615B1)45D9D1#61<8J1E=18,6E91)BE1B))5D3B561B8E1561)D549B6161"5#1B8E1561
3BE1 6E1 B))A4DED4886689E1 54D89BD8E1 #1 "BD91 61 5B1 BADBD5D9+1 61 5B1 6B861 1#D1 B#68961
348ED+AB566891B631561+5BD1548161A+B))A4DED4886689 11

(< 3, $1!  =%1 $% !!1

65481 56E1 )BAB39A6E1 61 E+3#ADEB9D481 #9D5DE+E1 B8E1 849A61 43561 <)BAB39A61 ,4ADA481 61
E+3#ADEB9D481691)BAB39A61619B#161E6AD3613D56=J184#E1)4#48E14968DA1#819B#161E6AD361BADB891
61 -21 :1 %22N 1 @4#E1 )4#48E1 B54AE1 34)BA6A1 84E1 A+E#59B9E1 B631 36#1 61 C$1 681 E61 "DB891 3461
D8D1619B#161E6AD36J1365#D14968#1)BA1C$1:1EB4DA1-JN1681468861E#A15,+3B89D55481+9#D+ 1
C4#A13619B#161E6AD361691)4#A16E19B#1E#)+AD6#AEJ184#E1496848E1#818D6B#161E943>19A3E1D8"+AD6#AE1
:1 36#1 61 C$ 1 !6E1 8D6B#1 4968#E1 E4891 681 468861 02N1 D8"+AD6#AE1 1 7,6E91 5:1 5,#81 6E1 B))4A9E1
)AD83D)B#161849A619ABBD5 1@4#E1)A+E68948E136E1A+E#59B9E1681+9BD5E1B8E15B1E#D96 1
!6E1 3BE1 )6A699B891 ,4968DA1 #81 9B#1 61 E6AD361 E#)+AD6#A1 :1 365#D1 4968#1 )BA1 849A61 )BA968BDA61
<-JN=1 E4891 56E1 E#DB89E161 .51 "B#91 34DEDA1 3461 )BAB39A61 ,4ADA481 61 E+3#ADEB9D48J1 #861 B56#A1
E#)+AD6#A61:1071(4#AE1<3611#D1A6)A+E6896168DA481%1E6BD86E14#1*14DE=1BD8ED11#,#819B#161E6AD361
3D56161%22N 1
!61+9BD516E1D""+A6836E1689A6156E1A+E#59B9E1#143561D8#E9AD65169156E1D""+A6896E1BADB896E161
849A6143561E1E6548156E1)BAB39A6E1F18B#161E6AD3613D561H1691F1E4ADA48161E+3#ADEB9D481H1E4891
)A+E689+E1B8E15618B56B#1 1!B1)AD83D)B561D""+A6836134836A861561618D6B#161E943> 1@49A614356J1
E6548156E1)BAB39A6E1#9D5DE+E1)6A69161A+#DA613618D6B#161/1:10NJ16815DD9B8915B1+ABB9D481#1
9B#161E6AD361:1%*N1B#1BD#16916815,B+5D4AB89161%N1B8E15616D556#A16E13BE 1
1

T1 1 1 T1
1%*11
 1

Tableau 25: Comparaison des niveaux de stock et du Taux de Service du modèle HSS par rapport au modèle industriel
Paramètre de Paramètre
taux de service d'horizon de 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105 112 119 126
cible sécurisation
Stock - Modèle
-85% -85% -85% -85% -85% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -87%
HSS
60%
Taux de
-13% -13% -13% -13% -12% -11% -10% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -8% -8% -8%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-85% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -84% -85% -85% -85% -85%
HSS
70%
Taux de
-13% -12% -12% -11% -10% -9% -9% -8% -7% -7% -7% -7% -6% -6% -6% -5% -5% -5%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83% -83%
HSS
80%
Taux de
-9% -8% -8% -7% -7% -6% -6% -5% -5% -4% -4% -4% -4% -3% -2% -3%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-84% -83% -83% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -82% -81% -81% -81% -81%
HSS
85%
Taux de
-12% -9% -8% -7% -7% -6% -6% -5% -4% -4% -3% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% -1%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-82% -82% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -81% -80% -80% -80% -80% -80%
HSS
90%
Taux de
-8% -7% -6% -5% -5% -4% -4% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-81% -81% -80% -80% -80% -79% -79% -79% -79% -79% -79% -79% -79% -78% -78% -78%
HSS
95%
Taux de
-6% -5% -4% -4% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0%
Service
Stock - Modèle
-82% -81% -80% -80% -79% -79% -78% -78% -77% -77% -76% -76% -76% -76% -75% -75% -75% -75%
HSS
100%
Taux de
-8% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -2% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Service
1

T1 1 1 T1
1%711
 1

!B1 DD#A61 *1 )A+E68961 56E1 A+E#59B9E1 #1 43561 D8#E9AD651 691 #1 43561 E1 B631 /1 (6#1 61
)BAB39A6E1 D""+A689E 1 !61 )BAB39A61 61 8B#1 61 E6AD361 3D561 BAD61 61 02N1 :1 %22N1 9B8DE1 1#61 561
)BAB39A61,4ADA48161E+3#ADEB9D481BAD6161%71(4#AE1:1%%1(4#AE 1

Figure 53: Comparaison "taux de service et niveau moyen de stock" pour le modèle
industriel et le modèle HSS1
1

T1 1 1 T1
1%11
 1

!B1DD#A6171D55#E9A6156E1BD8E1#143561E1)BA1AB))4A91B#1A+E#59B9E161849A61)BA968BDA61)4#A1
56E18D6B#161E943>E 1@4#E11448E11#61561BD81B161/7N1:10-N1)4#A156E13BE1+9#D+E 1

3D7"A6FAF498FA5)F2A562EFA/%%AA3D7"A6FAF498FA5)F2A562EFA
9267349FE
%-N

%7N

%N

%2N -2N
/2N
0N
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2N

7N %22N

N

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N

Figure 54: Stock moyen modèle HSS vs Stock moyen modèle industriel
!B1 DD#A61 1 )A+E68961 5B1 34)BABDE481 689A61 561 43561 E1 691 56E1 A+E#59B9E1 61 849A61 )BA968BDA61
)4#A1 561 9B#1 61 E6AD361 A+65 1 @4#E1 4D48E1 1 1#61 849A61 43561 E1 D8#D91 #81 9B#1 61 E6AD361 A+651
DD8#+161%*N1B8E15614D8E14816E13BE1ED#5+E19B8DE11#,D51B+5D4A615619B#161E6AD361A+65161%N1
B8E15616D556#A16E13BE11#D134AA6E)481:15B1DD8#9D481#18D6B#1468161E943>161/7N 1

%358>A5)F2A562EFA/%%AA%358>A5)F2A562EFA9267349FE
00N

0-N

07N

0N
-2N
02N
/2N
/0N
02N
/-N 2N

/7N %22N

/N

/2N

-0N
%7 0 7 - /2 07 % %2 %% %-

Figure 55: Taux de service moyen modèle HSS vs Taux de service moyen modèle industriel
T1 1 1 T1
1%-11
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3< 3, $1$1!1,1'CC11!1!  =%1@8I7?1

!B1 34)BABDE481 689A61 5B1 )45D9D1#61 <8JE>=1 )A4)4E+61 )BA1 <&BBD1 G1 5B556A1 22=1 691 561 43561 1#61
84#E1 )A4)4E48E1 B1 +B566891 +9+1 A+B5DE+6 1 7461 )4#A1 56E1 34)BABDE48E1 )A+3+6896EJ1 #861
ED#5B9D481616E9D4816E1E943>E1E#A1#81+3B89D5548161*21)A4#D9E1E#A1#81DE94AD1#6161)5#E161*1B8E1
B63156E16B86E1A+6556E169156E1)A+DED48E1D8#E9AD6556E13461488+6E1,689A+6E1B1+9+1A+B5DE+6 11
!6E1)BAB39A6E1#9D5DE+E1)4#A1369961)45D9D1#61616E9D48161E943>1E489156E1E#DB89E161
;861)+AD46161A+DED48161%1<8M%=161"BW481:134556A1B#13489ABD896E1D8#E9AD6556E1D89+A+6E1B8E1
849A6143561:1EB4DA1#86134B8611#49DD6886 1
;81E943>1+"D8D1)BA1 S = m.(L + 1) + SS 1
4X11
m 5345765C36BC35A3BB356F5;ADF5
L est le délai d’approvisionnement (49 jours)
SS = Θ−1 (TSL; 0 ;σ D ) est le stock de sécurité où TSL est le taux de service cible,
Θ −1 (TSL ; 0 ;σ D ) est la fonction inverse de la loi normale et σ D est l’écart-type de l’erreur de
prévision additive cumulative sur T+L.

5D4D952AJ3D7"A6FAF498FAF3A29FD7A5)F2A6FA358>JA574AEFA
562EFA*3.A>(AF3AEFA562EFA/%%
%22N

2N

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22 *222 *22 7222 722 222 22 -222

E1102N E112N E11%22N 8E>

Figure 56: Comparaison "taux de service et niveau moyen de stock" pour le modèle
(T,sk)et le modèle HSS
5D""+A6896E18D6B#161E+3#ADEB9D48E13D56E14891+9+196E9+1B631369961)45D9D1#61681)BA9B891,#819B#1
61E6AD361612N1)4#A1B556A1(#E1#,:1JN 17461481)6#915614DA1E#A15B1DD#A61-J15B1)45D9D1#61<8JE>=1
)6A691 ,B4DA1 61 48E1 A+E#59B9E1 BDE1 D5E1 861 E4891 (BBDE1 E#)+AD6#A1 :1 36#1 4968#E1 )BA1 5B1 +9461
E 1$19B#161E6AD361+B5J15618D6B#161E943>1615B1)45D9D1#61<8JE>=16E91E#)+AD6#A1,68DA481%N 1;861
ABDE481 :1 361 8D6B#1 61 E943>1 E#)+AD6#A1 6E91 561 +5BD1 ,B))A4DED48866891 +56+1 348(##+1 :1 #861 "4A961
BADB9D481615B11#B5D9+161)A+DED48 12816""69J15,6AA6#A13##5B9D611#D16E915B1D""+A68361689A615B1E461
6E134B86E1)4#A156E1!1)+AD46E1:168DA1<!M!6B8D6=16915B1E4616E16B86E1E#A156E1U6E1
!1)+AD46E16E919A3E1BADB56E 1.51681+34#561#818D6B#161E943>1)5#E1+56+1)BA15B1+9461<8J1E>= 1561
)5#EJ1849A61+9461E61BE61E#A156E1488+6E16)DAD1#6E1A+6556E1691B39#B5DE+6E16E1)A+DED48E19B8DE1
1#615B1+9461<8J1E>=1E,B))#D61E#A15B154D184AB561EB8E1A+B39#B5DEB9D481615B1)A+DED48 1769961)ADE61681
34)961 )5#E1 AB)D61 691 )5#E1 6B3961 6E1 488+6E1 )6A691 ,B+5D4A6A1 561 8D6B#1 #1 E943>1 61 E+3#AD9+1
)4#A134556A1B#1D6#1B#16E4D8E161E+3#ADEB9D48E 1

T1 1 1 T1
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)BAB39A6E1 61 E+3#ADEB9D481 :1 )A68A61681 34)96 1 281 6""69J1 56E1 )BAB39A6E1 61E+3#ADEB9D481 )6#6891
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E943>1\19B#161E6AD36 12816""69J1E654811#615B16B8616E913A4DEEB896J1+3A4DEEB896J15DEE614#1BADB56J1
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6B861D""+A689E 1!619B#1613A4DEEB8361)6#91U9A61+"D8DJ15618D6B#1615B16B861+B56689194#91
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Demande à décroissance rapide

Demande aléatoire Demande croissance
puis stabilisation

Figure 57: Présentation de différents profils d'évolution de demande

2< D!11+  $1"1

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Tableau 26: Présentation des résultats de la simulation d'une demande aléatoire dans l'intervalle [500;
1000]

jours d'historique 10 jours 35 jours 50 jours

taux de service 92% 97% 98%
stockage moyen 4210 4751 4986
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Tableau 27: Présentation des résultats de la simulation d'une demande croissante dans l'intervalle [100;
1000]

jours d'historique 10 jours 35 jours 50 jours

taux de service 89% 92% 95%
stockage moyen 2220 2495 2686
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Figure 60: Présentation de la demande décroissante et de l'évolution du stock pour différents

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Tableau 28: Présentation des résultats de la simulation d'une demande décroissante dans l'intervalle
[100; 1000]

jours d'historique 10 jours 35 jours 50 jours

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stockage moyen 2774 3237 3429
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