Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Cumulative
$ (34,910)
$ 78,834
$ 67,162
$ 27,885
Sensitivity Analysis
AFN Sensitivity
40.00% 29.82%
17.16% Operating Margi ns
20.00%
Net PPE/Sa l es
0.00% Ca s h/Sal es
-20.00% Accrua l s /s a l es
-40.00% -32.95%
15% -60.00%
-80.00% -65.39%
20.00%
Net PPE/Sa l es
0.00% Ca s h/Sal es
-20.00% Accrua l s /s a l es
-40.00% -32.95%
-60.00%
15% Decline -80.00% -65.39%
18.17%
18.98%
32.64% AFN
13.41% $3,000
$ 2,495
$2,000
$ (17,168)
$1,000
wth
8.00% 9.00% $-
Bas e Ca se 5% Decl i ne 10% Decli ne 15% Decl i ne
$ 27,885 $ 27,885
$(1,000)
$ 27,885 $ 27,885
$ 27,885 $ 27,885 $(2,000)
$ 27,885 $ 27,885
$ 27,885 $ 27,885 $(3,000)
DCF Valuation Sensitivity Analysis
15% Decl i ne
$50.00
Most Recent
P/E Low Estim
$40.00 P/E Hi gh Estim
Compara bl es
$30.00 Estimate
Compara bl es
Estimate
$20.00
$10.00
$-
tion Analysis
-5.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
y of Comparable Valuation
-25.00%
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Base Case Pessimistic
Changing Cells:
Projected Growth 7.5% 7.5% 7.1%
Operating Margins 21.38% 21.38% 20.31%
Cash/Sales 16.50% 16.50% 17.33%
Accounts Rec/Sales 8.90% 8.90% 9.35%
Inventory/Sales 6.55% 6.55% 6.88%
Net PPE/Sales 28.38% 28.38% 29.80%
Accounts Payables/Sales 4.75% 4.75% 4.51%
Accruals/Sales 15.78% 15.78% 14.99%
Result Cells:
Estimated Stock Price (WACC Model) $ 37.19 $ 37.19 $ 36.24
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Optimistic
7.9%
22.45%
15.68%
8.46%
6.22%
26.96%
4.99%
16.57%
$ 38.18
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Base Case 5% Decline 10% Decline
Changing Cells:
Operating Margin 19.70% 19.70% 18.72% 17.73%
Cash/Sales 16.50% 16.50% 17.33% 18.15%
Net PPE/Sales 28.38% 28.38% 29.80% 31.22%
Accruals/Sales 15.50% 15.50% 14.72% 13.95%
Result Cells:
AFN $ (2,266) $ (2,266) $ (677) $ 905
Cumulative AFN $ (31,798) $ (31,798) $ (26,919) $ (22,039)
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
15% Decline
16.75%
18.98%
32.64%
13.17%
$ 2,495
$ (17,168)
Value Drivers Coke
2011 2012 2103 2014 2015
Growth Prospects
Sales Growth 3.17% -2.42% -1.83% -3.70%
Operating Margin Growth 6.16% -5.11% -5.08% -10.09%
Earnings Growth 5.21% -4.82% -17.31% 3.56%
EPS Growth 6.64% -3.24% -16.21% 4.62%
Financial Structure
Total Liabilities/Assets 60.44% 61.95% 63.16% 67.05% 71.64%
Debt/Assets 35.72% 37.84% 41.17% 45.36% 49.07%
Debt/Equity 0.90 0.99 1.12 1.38 1.73
Invested Capital Equity 2.23 2.32 2.42 2.72 3.09
20.88% 21.38%
19.40% 20.66% Opert
9.67% 9.90% 25.00%
21.82% 22.45% 21.
6.76% 6.75%
30.71% 30.88% 20.00%
4.99% 4.75%
15.00% 14.48% 13.91%
15.78% 15.20%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2011 2012
Cash Co
30.00
24
22.95
19.05
20.00
11.61
10.00
1.78
Cash Co
30.00
24
22.95
19.05
20.00
11.61
10.00
1.78
0.00
2011 2012
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00
Days R
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2011 2012 210
Revenue Growth Analysis ROIC
4.00% 12.00%
3.17%
3.00%
10.00%
2.00% 1.41%
1.00% 0.40% 8.00%
Coke
0.00%
2011 2012 2103 2014 Peps i
-1.00% 6.00%
5.00%
5.00
0.00% 0.00
2011 2012 2103 2014 2015 2011 2012 2103 2014
Days Recievables
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00 Coke
Peps i
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2011 2012 2103 2014 2015
ROIC
Coke
Peps i
Capital Turnover
1.16 1.12
1.05 1.02
Coke
Peps i
63 0.58 0.56 0.56
Days Inventory
19.68
18.48
16.97 Coke
15.53 Peps i
Days Payable
70.34
59.76 57.56
56.16
51.21
Coke
42.04
Peps i
Days Payable
70.34
59.76 57.56
56.16
51.21
Coke
42.04
7.20 37.78 Peps i
WACC Methodology
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
$ 7,748 $ 8,329 $ 8,954 $ 9,625 $ 10,347 $ 11,123
$ 310,370
$ 7,748 $ 8,329 $ 8,954 $ 9,625 $ 320,717
Coco Cola Income statement Historical Income Statement
Fiscal year ends in December. USD in millions except per share data. 2011 2012
Revenue $ 46,542 $ 48,017
Cost of revenue $ 18,216 $ 19,053
Gross profit $ 28,326 $ 28,964
Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative $ 17,440 $ 17,738
Other operating expenses $ 732 $ 447
Total operating expenses $ 18,172 $ 18,185
Operating income $ 10,154 $ 10,779
Interest Expense $ 417 $ 397
Other income (expense) $ 1,702 $ 1,427
Income before taxes $ 11,439 $ 11,809
Provision for income taxes $ 2,805 $ 2,723
Net income from continuing operations $ 8,634 $ 9,086
Other $ (62) $ (67)
Net income $ 8,572 $ 9,019
Dividends
Addition to Retained Earnings
$ 9,096
$ 2,913
$ 12,009
$ 5,497
$ 2,720
$ 1,865
$ 940
$ 23,031
$ 35,747
$ (19,430)
$ 16,317
$ 29,629
$ 690
$ 46,636
$ 69,667
$ 4,071
$ 5,546
$ 4,078
$ 3,883
$ 17,578
$ 29,213
$ 4,959
$ 107
$ 5,887
$ 40,166
$ 57,744
$ 41
$ (38,590)
$ 50,472
$ 11,923
$ 69,667
Pepsi Income Statement
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenue $ 66,504 $ 65,492 $ 66,415 $ 66,683
Cost of revenue $ 31,593 $ 31,291 $ 31,243 $ 30,884
Gross profit $ 34,911 $ 34,201 $ 35,172 $ 35,799
Operating expenses
Sales, General and administrative $ 25,145 $ 24,970 $ 25,357 $ 26,126
Other operating expenses $ 133 $ 119 $ 110 $ 92
Total operating expenses $ 25,278 $ 25,089 $ 25,467 $ 26,218
Operating income $ 9,633 $ 9,112 $ 9,705 $ 9,581
Interest Expense $ 856 $ 899 $ 911 $ 909
Other income (expense) $ 57 $ 91 $ 97 $ 85
Income before taxes $ 8,834 $ 8,304 $ 8,891 $ 8,757
Provision for income taxes $ 2,372 $ 2,090 $ 2,104 $ 2,199
Net income from continuing operations $ 6,462 $ 6,214 $ 6,787 $ 6,558
Other $ (19) $ (36) $ (47) $ (45)
Net income $ 6,443 $ 6,178 $ 6,740 $ 6,513
Preferred dividend $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1
Net income available to common shareholders $ 6,442 $ 6,177 $ 6,739 $ 6,512
Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic 1576 1557 1541 1509
Diluted 1597 1575 1560 1527
EPS $ 1.46 $ 1.40 $ 1.53 $ 1.48
2015
$ 63,056
$ 28,384
$ 34,672
$ 24,885
$ 1,434
$ 26,319
$ 8,353
$ 970
$ 59
$ 7,442
$ 1,941
$ 5,501
$ (49)
$ 5,452
$ 5,452
1469
1485
$ 1.24
C