Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Vehicle Type Choice, Usage, and CO2 Emissions in Ho Chi Minh City:
Analysis and Simulation Using a Discrete-Continuous Model
Abstract: This paper presents an empirical study on vehicle type choice, usage, and CO2
emissions in Ho Chi Minh City, using data of 1585 participants in a 2014 survey. A joint
discrete-continuous model based on the copula approach is used to overcome selectivity bias
in the data and to address the relationship between vehicle type choice (a discrete outcome)
and usage (a continuous outcome) by specifying a joint distribution. The results show that the
two choices are interdependent and probably impacted by socio-economic attributes rather
than built environment attributes around the home location. In addition, the simulation
describes a shift from motorcycles to cars, and an increase in usage, resulting in a 60%
increase in CO2 emissions/passenger/month over a 10-year period. Lastly, the study analyzes
two interventions intended to decrease vehicle usage and CO2 emissions, namely increasing
operating costs and encouraging greater sharing of vehicles, which will be useful for
policymaking.
Keywords: Vehicle type choice, Vehicle usage, CO2 emission, Discrete-continuous model.
1. INTRODUCTION
Transportation is responsible for large amounts of the greenhouse gas emissions that are
endangering the human habitat. A report shows that the sector accounts for 23% of CO2
emissions from global energy consumption (IEA, 2009). This has become increasingly serious
with the rapid economic growth and urbanization of cities, especially in developing countries.
For example, in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, urban areas have to cope with 7.4 million
motorcycles and cars (HCMCDOT, 2015) used to transport the 8.2 million people who live
there (HCMC Statistical Office, 2015). This trend may continue to increase because the
quality of the current bus system is poor, and people’s wealth may encourage the use of
private vehicles (Dargay and Gately, 1999; Dalkmann and Huizenga, 2010). Consequently,
the transport system faces challenges in terms of capacity constraints and environmental
problems. In addition to identifying infrastructural and technological problems, many studies
have proposed that appropriate solutions to sustainable mobility require sufficient recognition
Corresponding author.
499
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
of the behavior of commuters (Avineri, 2012; Garcia-Sierra et al., 2015; Steg and Vlek, 2009).
Therefore, analyses of transport demand based on choice behavior play an important role.
Here, survey data has been found to be useful in relevant models. Notable examples are
studies on the influences of various policies to control vehicle pollution, based on choice
behavior analyses (Chen and Wang, 2016; Kaffashi et al., 2016; West, 2004). In addition,
many models have been developed to explain specific choice behaviors (Ben-Akiva and
Bierlaire, 1999; Train, 1986; Washington et al., 2011).
In this study, we consider individuals’ choices with regard to private vehicle type and
usage (number of kilometers driven), which cause problems for the transport system and
result in greenhouse gas emissions (CO2). Individuals’ choices of vehicle type and usage have
been examined in developed countries, where the choices are also considered with units of
households in terms of the number of vehicles and their vintage (Berkowitz et al., 1987;
Golob et al., 1997; Train, 1986). However, such studies are still new in developing countries,
where the circumstances around transportation are quite different. In Asian countries, many
studies have focused only on single choices, such as vehicle ownership (Joewono et al., 2008;
Srinivasan et al., 2007; Tuan, 2011) or mode choice (Tuan, 2015; Tran et al., 2015), which
might limit their usefulness for policymaking. Several studies do examine some combinations
such as vehicle ownership, mode choice and trip chaining (Dissanayake and Morikawa, 2002),
mode choice and destination choices (Yagi and Mohammadian, 2008), and vehicle holding
duration and traveling distance (Kuwano et al., 2011) that have contributed to the modest
body of knowledge on travel behavior in this area. While vehicle usage is understood as the
choice of vehicle use (Dissanayake and Morikawa, 2001) or the frequency shared with other
modes or vehicle allocations in households (Ni, 2008; Wan et al., 2011), vehicle choice
among different segments is only mentioned in (Banerjee et al., 2010). The study most closely
related to our current research is based on Taiwan, and measures usage based on the number
of kilometers driven, incorporating working mode choice and vehicle ownership (Lai and Lu,
2007). In that case, the authors determined that motorcycles and cars had been become
necessary to life in the country. In addition, they showed that while ownership of the two
modes are independent, trends show reductions in motorcycle ownership as income increases
and effects of cost on usage.
Considering the roles of income and cost in choices, but supposing that these choices
may be influenced by the diversity of cars and motorcycles in the market, we divide the two
modes into segments. By estimating a joint model of vehicle type choice and usage, we
investigate why and how residents in Ho Chi Minh City prefer using private vehicles. The
copula-based approach is used because of its characteristics, which we explain in the next
section. We use the model to gain insight into the factors impacting people’s choices, as well
as to forecast future trends. Furthermore, we use CO2 emissions as an indicator of sustainable
development in various scenarios. This additional step is useful for environmental–transport
policy analyses, which have not been considered in previous studies. From a practical point of
view, we expect our findings to have feedback effects in terms of transport planning
performance and, thus, to act as a reference for neighboring countries.
In the real world, there are many situations in which people have to make interrelated choices.
In such situations, the choices should not be analyzed as independent components. If all of
them are qualitative, the choices can be analyzed simply by combining them into sets of
alternatives for each choice. In this case, the interrelated choices collapse to simple choices.
500
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
The situation becomes more complicated when some choices are qualitative and others are
quantitative. Examples include choices of having and using electric appliances (Dubin and
McFadden, 1984), choices for the mode and timing of a trip (Habib et al., 2009), and choices
for the route and speed (Washington et al., 2011). The problem here is one of selectivity bias
because the consumption, timing, and speed are only observed for the chosen electric
appliance, mode, and route, respectively. Therefore, inappropriate analyses can result in
biased forecasts. In such cases, it is suggested to consider qualitative choices to the traditional
regression of quantitative choices. To do so, we can specify a discrete-continuous model,
which have been applied in the fields of energy and transportation (Derakhshan et al., 2015).
Early discrete-continuous models included using instrumental variables (Dubin and
McFadden, 1984), the expected value method (Dubin and McFadden, 1984; Mannering and
Winston, 1985), and a selectivity-bias correction term (Heckman, 1976, 1978, 1979; Dubin
and McFadden, 1984). The instrumental variable approach and the expected value method
replace endogenous variables, determined by the interaction of choices, with their
predicted/expected values, and then treat them as exogenous values in a regression model. In
contrast, a selectivity-bias correction term is estimated as a specified error in a regression
model. While the first method produces a result for continuous outcomes only, the second and
the third methods predict the probabilities of discrete choices and the continuous outcome
affected by each choice sequentially. These are viewed as weaknesses of the approaches. A
further approach, enabling the simultaneous estimation of choices, was offered by Lee (1983).
He used a bivariate distribution to represent a joint distribution of two univariate marginal
distributions, which he then estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Recently,
Habib derived a hazard-based modeling approach, based on the work of Lee. The name is
derived from the time factor of the models in his studies on commuting mode choice and trip
timing, commuting mode choice and work start time and duration, and parking type choice
and an activity scheduling process. The results of his studies confirmed the advantages of the
approach (Habib et al., 2009; Habib, 2012; Habib et al., 2012). The development of Lee’s
approach is based establishing proper bivariate distribution functions. According to Sklar’s
theorem, the bivariate distribution function is called a copula, which can be chosen from a set
of copula families. Lee used a Gaussian copula for his approach (Trivedi and Zimmer, 2005).
Although the traditional copula is flexible, some authors have proposed that it is better to
compare the usage of the copula with that of other copulas (Trivedi and Zimmer, 2005; Bhat
and Eluru, 2009).
The choices of vehicle type and usage are also interrelated, because people may
consider both at the same time. Several studies use the two-stage approaches mentioned above
to address the interaction (Berkowitz et al., 1987; Golob et al., 1997; Train, 1986; West, 2004;
Lai and Lu, 2007). The simultaneous approach using a copula was applied in the study of
Spissu et al. (2009). They explored six popular copulas used by Bhat and Eluru (2009) and
Kuwano et al. (2011), including the Gaussian, Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM), Frank,
Gumbel, Clayton, and Joe copulas. They determined that the Frank copula was superior in
terms of the goodness-of-fit of the model. Based on the findings of the study and the
experiences described in the literature of using copulas, we decided to try two of the six
copulas, namely the Gaussian and Frank copulas, for several reasons. First, we cannot expect
the tendency of the dependence (the sign of the correlation) between two marginal
distributions. Therefore, when using the Clayton, Gumbel, and Joe copulas, we would have to
use two estimation manners, for a rotated and a non-rotated distribution, as shown in (Patton,
2012). Second, although the three other copulas permit both positive and negative dependence,
the FGM copula is more restrictive than are the Gaussian and Frank copulas because it can
only accommodate weak dependence between marginal distributions (Bhat and Eluru, 2009;
501
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
Trivedi and Zimmer, 2005). Third, both the Frank and Gaussian copulas are popular in
empirical studies (Trivedi and Zimmer, 2005). Although the study of Spissu et al. (2009)
found that the Frank copula provides the best statistical fit of the six when addressing the
relationship between vehicle type choice and usage, we have chosen to compare it to the
better-known Gaussian copula. The next section describes the modeling framework using the
two copulas.
3. MODELING FRAMEWORK
How individual i chooses vehicle type T from the choice set t = {1, 2, 3, …, M}, with M
alternative types is derived from the multinomial logit component. The decision rule from the
Random Utility Maximization is that individual i chooses type t having utility uit , as defined
in Equation 1, highest among alternative types. The probability of a choice is given in
Equation 2. As shown, the known part of utility β t x it depends on observed explanatory
variables x and the regression coefficients β , while its distribution depends on that of the
unobserved part, namely the error term it . In the same way, the cumulative distribution
function of it ( F ( it ) ) represents the marginal distribution of the vehicle type choice.
Pr Ti t Pr uit max uit m Pr max uit m it βt xit
t 1, 2,3,..., M ;t t
(2)
t m 1, 2 , 3,..., M ;t m t m m
β t x it
Pr Ti t F it
e (3)
βt x
t
β t x it m it m
e t
e
m
Vehicle usage is represented by the number of kilometers driven per month, d. Assume d has a
log-normal distribution, which means ln(d ) has a normal distribution. The model of usage
for each individual i with vehicle type t is given as follows:
502
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
where α denotes the regression coefficients, z denotes the explanatory variables, and is
an error term.
Let Dit denotes the usage outcome of individual i. Then, the probability density
function f (it ) and the cumulative distribution function F ( it ) can be expressed as
follows (Johnson et al., 1994):
1 ln dit αz it
f it Pr lnDit lndit (5)
it it
ln dit αz it
F it Pr ln Dit ln dit (6)
it
where and are the probability density function and the cumulative distribution
function, respectively, of the standard or unit normal distribution, and F (it ) is the marginal
distribution function for usage.
Suppose the decisions of vehicle type choice and usage are not independent, and we are only
able to observe d if individual i chooses vehicle type t. Similarly, when individual i drives d,
there is a probability that he or she will choose vehicle type t. Therefore, the joint probability
allows us to reason about the relationship between the two choices.
Pr ln Dit ln d it , Ti t
Pr ln Dit ln d it Ti t Pr Ti t (7)
Pr Ti t ln Dit ln d it Pr lnDit ln d it
The next step is to calculate the joint probability, which is feasible using a copula.
According to Sklar’s theorem, there exists a bivariate joint distribution function represented
by a copula C between two univariate distributions u and v (Trivedi and Zimmer, 2005;
Nelsen, 2006). In the conditional statement, the conditional joint distribution function is
derived from a partial derivation of the copula, called a conditional copula:
F u , v C u , v; (8)
C u, v;
Cu v Pr V v U u (9)
u
where is the parameter representing the association between the two univariate
distributions. The range of depends on the copula used.
From Equation 7, the conditional probability of vehicle type choice is a conditional
distribution of t, given ln( Dit ) ln(dit ) , which can be determined using a conditional copula.
503
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
Using the marginal distribution functions derived from the two components, Equation 7 can
be written as Equation 10. When a Gaussian copula is applied, the marginal distributions
F ( it ) and F (i ) are bivariate standard normally distributed with the dependency
parameter , and are translated into Equation 11. Equation 12 is derived using the Frank
copula (Bhat and Eluru, 2009):
C F it , F it ;
Pr ln Dit ln d it , Ti t f it (10)
F it
1 F it 1 F it
Pr ln Dit ln d it , Ti t f it
(11)
2
1
eF ( it ) e
Pr lnDit ln d it , Ti t 1 e it F ( it ) F ( it ) f it
F ( )
F ( it ) F ( it )
(12)
e e e (1 e e )
N M 1 F it 1 F it ln d it αz it
LL Cit ln ln ln it (13)
1 2 it
i 1 t 1
F ( it )
ln1 eF ( it ) F ( ) F ( ) e eF ( ) F ( )
N M e it
e it
e (1 e it
e it
)
LL Cit (14)
ln dit αz it
ln it
i 1 t 1
ln it
In order to validate the relationship between vehicle type choice and usage in the joint
model, we also compare a model of independence, in which vehicle type choice is not
connected with usage. In this instance, the joint probability (Equation 7) can be written as
Equation 15, and the log-likelihood function is given by Equation 16:
N M ln d it αz it
LL Cit ln F it ln ln it
(16)
i 1 t 1 it
504
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
4. DATA PREPARATION
The primary data used in this study were taken from a project promoting public transportation
usage through Park-and-Bus Drive and Transportation Eco point systems, in collaboration
with private commercial facilities, and funded by the Nikken Sekkei Research Institute, Japan,
in 2014. In the survey, respondents, living in Ho Chi Minh City, were selected randomly to
participate in face-to-face and mail interviews. The distributed questionnaire contained four
parts. In the first part, respondents were asked about their mode choice and the characteristics
of their private vehicles and parking, if they were using private vehicles (i.e., a motorcycle or
car). This included information on the brand, age of the vehicle, odometer reading, and
technological details, such as engine type, volume, fuel type, and emission control technology,
as well as their habits when starting the engine, parking place, parking fee, and number of
passengers. In the second part, respondents were asked to state their opinions about the
Park-and-Bus Drive system, and relevant problems, using four-point scales ranging from
positive to negative. In the third part, the public transportation eco point system was explained
to respondents. Using the system, they can purchase a monthly shopping ticket and use the
parking lot of the shopping center for free. Then, they take the bus and receive an award of
eco points, which can be exchanged as a shopping discount at the shopping center. Next, they
were required to indicate whether they agreed to purchasing a shopping ticket, how much they
were willing to pay, and the acceptable return rate of eco points. In the fourth part, the
questions focused on the characteristics of respondents. These included gender, age,
educational background, monthly income, monthly transportation expenditure, occupation,
number of family members, distance from home to workplace, and home location.
Based on the purpose of the study, we used data of 1585 available observations from
individuals who stated that they use private vehicles as their main mode of transportation in
daily life. Information from the first and fourth parts of the questionnaire were used, along
with other built environment attributes related to respondents’ home location (districts where
respondents live), such as land-use patterns (population density, employment density), transit
coverage (density of bus stops, density of bus lines), and accessibility to central areas. The
population density and employment density were obtained from the Ho Chi Minh City
statistical yearbook (HCMC Statistical Office, 2016). The densities of bus stops and bus lines
were calculated from data on the number of bus stops and bus lines (HCMCDOT, 2016) and
areas of districts (HCMC Statistical Office, 2016). The accessibility to central areas is a
category of home location based on its distance from district 1, which represents the city
center. In all, 29.0% of the respondents live in the central area, 69.8% respondents live in
suburban areas, and 1.2% live in rural areas.
For the dependent variables, we classified vehicles into five types based on engine
volume. The sample distribution is presented in Table 1. The share of vehicle types between
motorcycles and cars in the sample is consistent with the proportions reported by the
Department of Transportation, namely 91.6% and 8.4% for motorcycles and cars, respectively
(HCMCDOT, 2015). Usage is measured as the number of kilometers driven per month by a
respondent, calculated from the vehicle’s odometer reading. The mean usage shows that
individuals using cars are likely to drive greater distances than those using motorcycles.
The explanatory variables classified into socio-economic attributes and built
environment attributes are listed in Table 2. Since income and expenditure (monthly total
transportation expenditure, such as fuel costs and parking fee) are two categorical variables
used in the questionnaire to encourage responses, we imputed continuous values using
ordered probit models, obtaining new variables of estimated income and estimated
expenditure. The procedure, based on Winship and Mare (1984) and Bhat (1994), is
505
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
summarized as follows:
(1) Suppose these variables have log-normal distributions and the logarithm of their
actual value ln(Ii) is a function of the explanatory variables w i and the coefficients γ . In
addition, the disturbance term has a mean of zero and variance , which can vary according
to the characteristics of individual i in this study.
(2) An ordered probit model is estimated using threshold values a j ,i , known as
pre-specific intervals j = {1, 2, 3, …, J}, in the data. The probability that ln(Ii) falls within the
boundaries of the observed categories j is calculated using Equation 17.
(3) Imputed values of income and expenditure are calculated from Equation 18.
ln a j ,i γw i ln a j 1, i γw i
Pr ln( I i ) j (17)
i i
ln a
γw ln a γw
j 1,i j ,i
i i
i
i
I i exp γw i i
ln a γw ln a
j ,i i j 1,i γw i (18)
i
i
Being different from the standard ordered probit model, the parameters representing the
variances of disturbance i stated in the procedure are identifiable. Since i has to be
positive, it is set as an exponential function of the parameters impacting the heterogeneity
among individuals.
The results of the ordered probit models are shown in Tables 3 and 4. For income,
higher values are shown among people with education levels of associate or higher, and in the
age group between 30 and 50 years of age. In contrast, income is lower for the elderly and,
particularly, in the jobless groups, which have the highest negative parameter value.
Furthermore, females tend to have lower incomes than males. The estimated parameters for
the standard deviation of log(income) imply significant differences in the variance of
disturbance among individuals. Joblessness and a graduate education level increase the
variability of income, while being female reduces this variability. For expenditure, higher
values were found for individuals with a higher income, who lived further from their
workplace, and those who transported more passengers. As anticipated, the female and jobless
group, who were found to have a lower income, also spend less money on transportation, and
age has a slightly negative impact on the transportation expenditure. The standard deviation of
log(expenditure) shows the differences among individuals in terms of their variability of
expenditure. While joblessness, a higher number of passengers, and higher income increase
the variance of disturbance, living a greater distance from home to workplace reduces it. In
the final step of the data preparation, we obtain values for operating costs, a new variable, by
adjusting the unit of estimated expenditure from VND per month to VND per kilometer, based
on travel distance. The purpose of this is to use the variable in the joint models as an
explanatory variable for usage.
506
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
507
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
A limitation of the data meant that we could not include two household attributes that
may impact decisions on vehicle type and usage, namely vehicle ownership and the presence
of children. In addition, the data only give the distance of a respondent’s home to the
workplace as commuting data; there are no data on other daily activities, such as shopping
and recreation. Moreover, because there were no data on destinations, the built environment
attributes were only investigated in terms of the origin (home location). Therefore, the effects
of these additional factors are not captured in our analyses.
508
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
The joint model estimation results for the choice of vehicle type and usage are summarized in
Table 5. All models, including the model of independence, the model with the Gaussian
copula, and the model with the Frank copula are structured using same components. In the
multinomial logit component, type 1 was set as the base, and utility functions included
alternative constants. In the regression component of usage, two constants were introduced
separately into two groups, namely motorcycle and car, representing the difference between
the two groups. In addition, we introduced the operating cost with vehicle type-specific
parameters to estimate the distinct effects of this factor on the usage of each type.
In general, the two choices probably depend more on socio-economic attributes than
they do on the built environment attributes. Except for the distance from home to the
workplace, there are no statistically significant impacts from the group of five built
environment attributes around home location (i.e., population density, employment density,
density of bus stops, density of bus lines, and accessibility to the central area) for either of the
components of the joint model. On the one hand, this partly shows that attributes such as
population density, employment density, and accessibility to the central area, based on the
home location, do not play an important role in the use of vehicles, which is consistent with
the findings of Chen et al. (2008). On the other hand, the lack of built environment attributes
for the destinations may mean that those for the home are insufficient, on their own, to
explain the choices. For example, people may not reduce their usage of private vehicles to use
the bus, even if the bus network around their home is good, because the buses may not be able
to get them to their workplace.
The log-likelihood values at the convergence of the joint models with the Gaussian
copula, Frank copula, and model of independence are -770.16, -768.92, and -785.56,
respectively. Two likelihood ratio tests, between the model of independence and the model
with the Gaussian copula, and between the model of independence and the model with the
Gaussian copula, result in values of 30.8 and 33.28, respectively, which are larger than the
chi-squared critical values with five degrees of freedom at any reasonable level of
significance. In addition, all parameters of dependency in the joint models using copulas
are significant with critical t-stat. These results all allow us to reject the assumption in the
model of independence, and confirms the existence of a relationship between the two choices
covered by the copulas. The differences in the coefficients between the models indicate the
effectiveness of using the copulas. Interestingly, while Spissu et al. (2009) supposed that
using the Gaussian copula would result in inconsistent correlations, our results indicate it is
still effective. Despite this, a comparison using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) for the
two non-nested models reveals that the model with the Frank copula is slightly more
appropriate, as it has a lower AIC. Therefore, we use the model with the Frank copula in the
simulation. The detailed results are discussed below.
The results of the multinomial logit component indicate the factors’ impact on the
choice of vehicle type. There are several possible explanations for our findings. Income is
associated with positive coefficients, showing that individuals with a higher income tend to
choose vehicles with a bigger engine, which may be more expensive to use. In addition, the
probability of choosing a car increases with the distance between the home and the workplace
or when there are two or more passengers. Motorcycles are more convenient in Ho Chi Minh
City because of the narrow streets and high levels of congestion. Thus, it is not surprising that
individuals do not choose to use cars to travel short distances. The magnitudes of the factor
are also quite low, implying that it has less of an effect than other factors do. Then, cars allow
for greater numbers of passengers than motorcycles do, which explains they cars are more
popular when more people need transport. Here, it is necessary to point out the small size of
the sample for type 5 (17 of 1585 individuals). This implies that type 5 is a rare case, possibly
509
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
explaining the lower coefficients for the trend in these factors. Although unexpected, this is
acceptable. Furthermore, we found that gender is a significant factor, with a positive
510
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
coefficient for females for types 2, 3, 4, and 5. This is an interesting finding because females
are believed to choose vehicles with a smaller engine. However, the results reveal that the
opposite is true. If omitting these explanatory factors, the constants imply that individuals
choose more motorcycles, especially type 2, than they do other types.
In the regression component, there are contributions by the explanatory variables for
usage, with all signs of the parameter estimates as expected. Individuals with a higher income
or who live further from the workplace are more likely to drive for all vehicle types. The
number of passengers is significant and positive for usage, but only those who choose cars.
This is consistent with the fact that cars can accommodate higher numbers of passengers. This
also means the car types show higher usage is terms of total passengers. On the other hand,
the higher operating costs result in less usage for all types, with higher magnitudes for
motorcycle types. Not surprisingly, people expect driving less expensive. The magnitudes of
the coefficients show drivers’ sensitivity to operating costs. Individuals choosing motorcycles
are more sensitive to operating costs, and tend to drive less if the costs of driving their vehicle
is higher. This is consistent with their statements of a lower income. In addition, it should be
recognized that the operating costs of the car types are higher than those of the motorcycle
types. Despite this, car drivers are less sensitive to changing operating costs than are
motorcycle drivers. The lowest coefficient of operating costs is found in type 4, which can be
explained by the adjustment of the relationship between the choice of vehicle type and usage,
or a self-selection effect, which is not evident in the model of independence. Finally, it is
postulated that females drive less distance than males do, for all types.
The estimated variances in the regression component show the variability of usage for
each type. Car types have higher variances, indicating that the variability among individuals
who choose cars is higher than that of individuals who choose motorcycles.
With regard to the correlation between the choice of vehicle type and usage, the
dependency parameters show a significant relationship between the two choices through
the error terms. A negative coefficient indicates a positive correlation, and vice versa (Spissu
et al., 2009). As shown, all dependency parameters are negative, which implies that
individuals who obtain greater than expected utility on all types are more likely to drive.
Besides, coefficients of the correlations are generally higher for the car types, allowing use to
compare the usage between the two groups. Individuals who choose motorcycle type 1 can be
expected to drive the least, while those choosing car type 3 can be expected to drive the most.
Finally, we need an additional comparison for the estimation results. Table 6 shows that
the model of independence predicts choices closest to the observed data (see Table 1). This
determines the effectiveness of the explanatory variables chosen in the components. However,
511
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
this does not mean that the model should necessarily be used because the data contain a
selectivity bias, as mentioned in the data preparation. For example, an individual using a
motorcycle will have different usage for cars than will an individual using a car. If a policy
forces individuals to change their type of vehicle, the model will provide biased forecasts of
usage. In contrast, the models with the copulas help us to overcome this disadvantage of the
data by considering the relationship between the two choices. The predicted usage from the
joint models is average usage from both observed and unobserved cases and, therefore, is
lower than described in the data.
In this step, we simulate the choice of vehicle type and usage for individuals using the joint
model with the Frank copula. A base case is set with no change in all explanatory variables,
and some scenarios are set with possible changes in income and operating costs. As stated by
Train (1986), because the future is unknown, the step is considered to answer “what if”
questions, rather than being an intrinsic forecast.
From the data on monthly capital income, collected every two years from 1996 to 2012
(The General Statistics Office, 1996–2012), we found a log-linear trend of increasing income,
described in the following formula: ln(income) = 6.19 + 0.13 × period (R2 = 0.95). Because
changes in operating costs are difficult to describe, owing to the diversity of influencing
factors, we set two scenarios: 1) keeping the trend of increasing income in instances of stable
operating costs (no intervention); and 2) a doubling of operating costs over a 10-year period.
Operating costs are expected to be higher as a result of policies limiting private vehicles. And
a continual increase of 8% per year, for the purpose of doubling the cost in 10 years, is
acceptable. A summary of the simulation results is shown in Table 7.
Because of the increase in income resulting from economic growth, the simulation
shows an expected-to-observed trend of a lower share in types of motorcycles, and a higher
share in car types, as compared with the base case. The adjustment is mostly in the type 2
category (decrease of 14.92%) and type 4 category (increase of 21.23%). Despite the
opposing trends in the shares of vehicle types, the usage of all types tended to increase. The
trend is strong in the case of stable operating costs and, of course, stronger if the costs
decrease. In contrast, when the costs increase, the trends change. In this case, the changes in
the increased usage vary for the different types. The increasing trend is lower for types 1, 2,
and 3 than it is for types 4 and 5.
Table 7. Changes in the 10th year compared with the base case
Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4 Type 5
Choices (%) 2.46 67.89 2.53 25.80 1.32
% change -6.65 -14.92 0.09 21.23 0.24
No intervention (stable operating cost)
Usage (km/vehicle/month) 1087 1173 1131 1288 1230
% change 56.85 58.09 58.40 61.00 59.95
Double operating cost
Usage (km/vehicle/month) 849 972 948 1203 1104
% change 22.51 31.00 32.77 50.38 43.56
In order to estimate the impacts of vehicle usage on CO2 emissions, we used emission
factors indicated in the study of Schippers et al. (2008), namely 39.6 g/km for motorcycles
512
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
and 205.5 g/km for cars. The CO2 emissions were calculated in units of kilograms per
passenger per month by multiplying the level of usage by the relevant emission factor, and
then dividing this value by the average number of passengers. Here, we use the average of
1.21 passengers/motorcycle and 2.42 passengers/car, as shown in the data. Furthermore, to
derive the role of vehicle sharing on CO2 emissions, we added one other scenario in which the
sharing is adjusted to 1.5 passengers/motorcycle and 3 passengers/car in the 10th year,
reflecting an increase of around 23% from the base case, while keeping the trend of increasing
income and stable operating costs.
Figure 1 presents a clear trend of increasing CO2 emissions per passenger due to the
increase in usage resulting from the increasing income over time, as well as from adjustments
in operating costs and shares in usage. In the base case, the CO2 emission per passenger range
between 22.67 and 24.29 kg/month for motorcycles, and between 60.63 and 67.97 kg/month
for cars. In the 10th year, if there is no intervention, the CO2 emissions will increase by about
60% for all types.
In the case of doubling the operating costs, the level of increase dropped, but only
sharply in those types that the drivers are more sensitive to costs, such as types 1, 2, and 3.
That is, if operating cost is set as a policy to decrease CO2 emissions, this would only be
significant for certain groups of people. Furthermore, people tend to choose vehicles with
bigger engines (see Table 7) over time. If this is true, the policy is unlikely to be effective. In
addition, the reduction is intrinsically caused by reductions in usage, which can be seen as a
drawback of adapting travel demand to development (Spissu et al., 2009). However, in
combination with the development of the public transportation system, this may well cause a
shift in usage from private vehicles to public transport, especially in the case of motorcycles.
With regard to the effects of the public’s perception, we assume that a campaign to
change people’s perception of CO2 emissions from travel behavior would make them want to
decrease their own CO2 emissions. Using an increase in vehicle sharing as an example, a
considerable adjustment is evident for all types with a 23% increase in sharing (Figure 1). The
adjustment is even more effective than increasing operating costs. This indicates that
perception plays an important role in adjusting travel behavior and, thus, benefiting the
environment, and should be emphasized when implementing policies.
513
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
The simulation examines travel behavior under certain assumed conditions for the
benefit of policy analyses in order to identify appropriate interventions. There is another
problem that can be discussed with regard to the effects of operating costs on vehicle choice.
At present, the operating costs of private vehicles in Ho Chi Minh City are not high, because
these costs are predominantly the costs of fuel, which do not have a significant impact on the
vehicle type choice. However, when the costs increase and there are more options in terms of
public transportation, individuals may consider this factor on their choice. In addition,
technological innovations might decrease the emissions for certain types, resulting in a more
optimistic future for CO2 emissions than that simulated here.
6. CONCLUSIONS
In Ho Chi Minh City, CO2 emissions from transportation are mainly from private vehicles. In
this study, the two interrelated choices of vehicle type and usage were estimated
simultaneously using the joint discrete-continuous model based on the copula approach. The
work provided evidence on choice behavior, influential factors, and possible future trends and,
therefore, contributing to policymaking.
The findings were as follows. First, the significant dependency between the two
components in the joint model confirms the existence of unobserved effects of self-selection
in the relationship between the two choices. Second, the two choices are affected by
socio-economic attributes rather than by built-environment attributes related to home location.
The significant factors with positive signs include income, distance from home to the
workplace, and the number of passengers. Females are less likely to use a motorcycle of type
1 and tend to drive less than males do. Operating costs is an alternative factor with a negative
sign in terms of usage. Third, the simulation results indicate a shift from motorcycle types to
car types, a preference for more expensive vehicles as income increases. In addition, an
increase in usage is showed in all types. The model was applied to various scenarios to show
the role of factors in shifting travel behavior in order to constrain future CO2 emissions.
With economic growth, increases in income and changes in usage will result in
increases in CO2 emissions in the relationship with choice of vehicle type, but the slope of the
trend can be adjusted using policies. From the simulation, analyses showed that increasing
operating costs results in biased effects on types, and may be effective only when the public
transport system is good enough to be a viable alternative. While increasing operating costs
forces people to change their behavior, altering their perceptions can be a more effective
solution by, for example, increasing vehicle sharing.
A limitation of the study is that two potential household attributes (vehicle ownership
and number of children) that might have an effect on individuals’ choices of vehicle types and
usage were not included. Furthermore, the effect of daily activities was not been sufficiently
considered because of a lack of data on shopping and recreation trips. In addition, built
environment attributes around destinations were not investigated. Changing these factors may
offer potential solutions, such as taxes on vehicle ownership, a policy on using school buses,
and resolving problems in land-use or in transit coverage. Thus, the proposed model can be
improved by including these attributes.
In summary, the joint model approach using a copula is suitable for analyzing choices of
vehicle type and usage, and the relationship between the two. Based on the proposed model,
policies can be put in place to shift vehicle type choices and, consequently, usage behavior, or
vice versa, overcoming the selectivity bias in the data. The results serve as basis for relevant
policy analyses. In future research, in addition to generating complementary and sufficient
514
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
data, the authors plan to estimate choice models that consider alternative public transport
modes that are being developed in the city. The current study is being considered in
comparable analyses.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported by Nikken Sekkei Research Institute, Japan. We are grateful to
Dr. Duc Trong Nguyen, Dr. Tien Dung Chu, and students from the University of Transport
and Communications, Vietnam, for their help in collecting data.
REFERENCES
Avineri, E. (2012). On the use and potential of behavioral economics from the perspective of
transport and climate change. Transport Geography, 24, 512-521.
Banerjee, I., Walker, J.L., Deakin, E.A., Kanafani, A. (2010). New vehicle choice in India:
Household choice among motorized vehicle segments. 12th World Conference on
Transport Research Society, Lisbon, Portugal, July 11-15.
Ben-Akiva, M., Bierlaire, M. (1999). Discrete choice methods and their applications to
short-term travel decision. In: Hall, R.W. (Ed.), Handbook of Transportation Science,
Kluwer Academic, New York.
Berkowitz, M.K., Gallini, N.T., Miller, E.J., Wolfe, R.A. (1987). Forecasting vehicle holdings
and usage with a disaggregate choice model. Journal of Forecasting, 6, 249-269.
Bhat, C. (1994). Estimation of travel demand models with grouped and missing income data.
Transportation Research Record, 1443, 45-53.
Bhat, C.R., Eluru, N. (2009). A copula-based approach to accommodate residential
self-selection effects in travel behavior modeling. Transportation Research Part B:
Methodological, 43 (7), 749-765.
Chen, C., Gong, H., Paaswel, R. (2008). Role of the built environment on mode choice
decisions: Additional evidence on the impact of density. Transportation, 35, 285-299.
Chen, X., Wang, X. (2016). Effects of carbon emission reduction policies on transportation
mode selections with stochastic demand. Transportation Research Part E, 90, 196-205.
Dalkmann, H., Huizenga, C. (2010). Advancing Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport through
the GEF. The Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel. Washington, D.C.
Dargay, J., Gately D. (1999). Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership worldwide:
1960-2015. Transportation Part A, 33, 101-138.
Derakhshan, A., Khademi, A., Khademi, S., Yusof, N.M., Lee, M.H. (2015). Review of
discrete-continuous models in energy and transportation. Procedia CIRP, 26, 281-286.
Dissanayake, D., Morikawa, T. (2002). Household travel behavior in developing countries:
Nested logit model of vehicle ownership, mode choice, and trip chaining. Transportation
Research Record, 1805, 45-52.
Dissanayake, D., Morikawa, T. (2001). Modeling vehicle usage, mode choice, and trip
chaining for multiple household members in developing countries. JSCE Journal of
Infrastructure Planning and Management, 688 (IV-53), 125-133.
Dubin, J., McFadden, D. (1984). An economic analysis of residential electric appliance
holdings and consumption. Econometrica, 51, 345-362.
515
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
516
Nguyen, N.T., Miwa, T., Morikawa, T. / Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4, Issue 3 (2017), 499–517.
517