PUBLICATIONS
Space Weather
NEWS ARTICLE
10.1002/2014SW001140
Key Points:
• The Martian atmosphere’s response to
a front of SEPs
• Enlil is running in real time at CCMC
Citation:
Zheng, Y., T. Mason, and E. L. Wood (2015),
Forecasting Space Weather Events for a
Neighboring World, Space Weather, 13,
2–4, doi:10.1002/2014SW001140.
Accepted article online 5 DEC 2014
Published online 12 JAN 2015
This article has been contributed to by
US Government employees and their
work is in the public domain in the USA.
ZHENG ET AL.
Forecasting Space Weather Events
for a Neighboring World
Yihua Zheng , Tom Mason , and Erin L. Wood
Shortly after NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars’
orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere’s response to a front of
solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some
solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated
in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy
and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle
detectors.
MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction
system that had it origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather
for Earth’s neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar
Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars
intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone
model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated
Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the
direction of Mars (Figure 1).
According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the
leading edge of the CME reached Mars at ~17 UT on 29 September 2014. Such SEPS may have a profound
effect on atmospheric escape—they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss.
SEPs can cause loss of Mars’ upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering
of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with
energetic particles.
MAVEN observes neutral loss in Mars’ upper atmosphere using a University of Colorado Boulder-built
Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS), which is sensitive to the sunlight reflected by the atoms.
“MAVEN directly probes how these atoms escape to space. The observations support our current
understanding that the upper atmosphere of Mars, when compared to Venus and Earth, is only tenuously
bound by the planet’s weak gravity,” says IUVS team member and CU-Boulder doctoral student Mike
Chaffin of the Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences. Early results from the IUVS show
atomic carbon and oxygen close into the planet, while the atomic hydrogen corona extends far into
space (Figure 2). This hydrogen, once bound within water, is in the process of escaping the planet.
If the loss rate can be characterized, the amount of water vapor that entered the upper atmosphere
over time can be established. The ultimate goal is to establish how much water originally existed on
the surface.
In a recent news release, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) Associate Director for
Science and University of Colorado Boulder Professor Bruce Jakosky, the mission’s principal investigator,
noted that MAVEN finished its commissioning activities on 16 November 2014. MAVEN begins a 1 year
primary science mission that will, among other endeavors, measure solar wind and SEP interactions
with Mars. These measurements will be informed by ongoing forecasts from CCMC’s Space Weather
Research Center.
©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 2
 Space Weather 10.1002/2014SW001140

Figure 1. North polar view of the solar system from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model. The Sun is at the center
of each image. The coronal mass ejection departs the Sun on 26 September, propagates through the heliosphere, and
arrives at Mars (red diamond) on 29 September. Earth, shown as a small yellow dot, was not affected by the ejecta
(credit: the CCMC/SWRC team).

ZHENG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 3

 Space Weather 10.1002/2014SW001140

Figure 2. Three views of an escaping atmosphere, obtained by MAVEN’s Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph. The Sun is to
the right in these images. Atomic carbon is shown in red, atomic oxygen is in green, and atomic hydrogen is in blue.

Acknowledgments References
LASP provided three science instruments
Parsons, A., D. Biesecker, D. Odstrcil, G. Millward, S. Hill, and V. Pizzo (2011), Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model transitions to operations,
and leads science operations. UC
Space Weather, 9, S03004, doi:10.1029/2011SW000663.
Berkeley’s SSL provided four science
Zheng, Y., et al. (2013), Forecasting propagation and evolution of CMEs in an operational setting: What has been learned, Space Weather, 11,
instruments for the mission. NASA’s
557–574, doi:10.1002/swe.20096.
Goddard Space Flight Center manages
the MAVEN project and provided two
science instruments for the mission. Yihua Zheng is a scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and a colead of the Space Weather Research
Lockheed Martin of Littleton, Colorado, Center of CCMC. Email: Yihua.Zheng@nasa.gov.
built the spacecraft and is responsible for
mission operations. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Tom Mason is an Education and Communications Specialist at the University of Colorado Boulder’s Laboratory
Laboratory provides navigation and Deep for Atmospheric and Space Physics and serves as the Education and Public Outreach Lead for the MAVEN mission
Space Network support, as well as the
telecommunications relay hardware and at LASP. Email: tmason@colorado.edu.
operations. The Space Weather Research
Center (SWRC), as the CCMC’s in-house
Erin L. Wood is a science educator on the MAVEN Mission team, and is based at the Laboratory for Atmospheric
research-based space weather prototyping and Space Physics, University of Colorado Boulder. Email: Erin.Wood@lasp.colorado.edu.
team, addresses NASA’s unique space
weather needs and provides custom
space weather services to all NASA
missions, including forecasts of CME
propagation and transport in the
interplanetary space (as shown in Figure 1).
Real-time CME simulation results are
publicly available on the Integrated Space
Weather Analysis under the “Events” tab.
Archives of space weather events and their
relationship since 2010 can be found via the
Space Weather Database of Notifications,
Knowledge, Information. (http://kauai.ccmc.
gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/). We acknowledge
and congratulate the entire MAVEN team
with regard to its successful mission,
which promises to further increase our
understanding of Mars and its interactions
with solar wind and particles. We thank the
CCMC/SWRC team for their contribution.
Additional news, images, and features
about MAVEN are available at http://lasp.
colorado.edu/home/maven/features-news/

ZHENG ET AL. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 4