Stormbrif 2

Strong Coastal Storm Tonight - Sat
Decision Support Briefing #2

As of: 600 AM March 1st, 2018
What Has Changed?
High Wind Warning Eastern Long

Island, New London CT Fri - Fri
Night
Coastal Flood Warning Southern

Queens, Southern Nassau, Fri
Morning
Storm Warning for Ocean, Eastern

Long Island Sound, Long Island
Bays, Fri - Sat Morning
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 3/1/2018 6:59 AM 1
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing

• Minor to moderate coastal flooding Vulnerable locales along
Coastal • Inundation of 2 to 3 ft above ground NY/NJ Harbor, S and E Bays
in vulnerable areas of LI, and W/E LI Sound as Friday through Saturday
Impacts • Areas of dune erosion and localized well as Jamaica Bay, highest
overwashes threat S. Queens, S. Nassau
• Wind gusts of 50 to 60 KT
Marine • Seas of 9 to 16 ft on the Ocean and 3 All Coastal Waters Friday through Friday Night
to 6 ft on LI Sound
• 25 to 40 MPH with gusts 50 to 70

MPH Much of the region.
Damaging • Winds capable of downing trees and Highest threat Eastern LI and Friday through Friday Night
Winds power lines New London CT
• Power outages expected
• Snowfall of 4 to 8 inches possible.
• Visibilities of 1/4 miles or less
Heavy Wet possible
Orange NY
Friday through Friday Night
Western Passaic NJ
Snow • Damage to tree limbs and
powerlines
• 2 to 3 inches, localized higher

amounts
Heavy Rain • Potential poor drainage and small
Much of the region Friday through Friday Night
stream and river Flooding

Summary of Greatest Impacts
Coastal Flooding for shorelines of LI and NY Harbor,
Moderate Flooding for Southern parts of Nassau and Queens
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Storm Force Winds over Much of the Waters

Wind Damage: Highest Risk Eastern LI and New London CT
Heavy Snow: Orange NY, Western Passaic NJ

Fresh Water Flooding: Much of the Region


Coastal Flooding
• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding
expected Friday Morning.
• Inundation of 1 to 2 ft above ground
in vulnerable areas
• Widespread moderate coastal

flooding possible during times of
high tide Friday Night through
Saturday Night along Jamaica Bay,
southern and eastern bays of Long
Island, including the Atlantic Ocean
beachfront.
• Inundation of 2 to 3 ft above ground
in vulnerable areas
• Areas of dune erosion and localized

overwashes along the Atlantic
Ocean beachfront

Strong to Damaging Winds
 Wind gusts 60 - 70 mph for
Eastern Long Island and
New London CT, 45 – 55
mph elsewhere
 Strongest winds Friday
afternoon through Friday
night
 Damaging winds will be

capable of downing trees
and power lines with
resulting power outages,
highest threat Eastern LI
and New London CT
 Travel difficult for high

profile vehicles

Heavy Rain
 2-3 inches total rain, with
locally higher amounts
 Smaller rivers and streams

will be most vulnerable to
possibility of flooding
 Poor drainage urban

flooding is possible

Heavy Wet Snow
 Forecast total snow of 4 – 8
Expected inches for Western Passaic,
Snowfall NJ and Orange NY
 Lesser snowfall amounts for
the rest of the region with
mainly less than 1 inch snow
expected. However, high end
possibility of these same
areas getting 2-4 inches of
High End snow
Snowfall
Possible  Timing: Friday Morning
through Friday Night
 Difficult travel conditions.

Significant reduction in
visibility possible.

Uncertainty and Scenarios
 Magnitude of the Coastal Flooding Friday Night
into Saturday dependent on track and intensity of
the low
 Will be predicated on proximity of low pressure to the coast
and how quickly it moves away
 A more rapid intensification may turn rain over to

snow in higher terrain of NE NJ and the lower
Hudson Valley quicker
 Snow amounts could be several inches higher than forecast
in this case
 Potential for a period of accumulating snow all the

way to coast on Friday.

Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 3/1/2018 6:59 AM
Strong Coastal Storm Summary
 4 Main Impacts
 Prolonged minor to moderate coastal flooding threat
 Strong to Damaging winds, especially for Eastern Long Island and
Southeast CT
 Heavy rain across much of the region
 Accumulating snow (potentially 4 – 8 inches) for Orange County NY and
Western Passaic County NJ
 High Wind Threat: 60 – 70 mph winds, highest threat for coastal waters, Long
Island and Southeast CT, downed trees and wires with power outages
 Several tidal cycle of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding: Highest threat

will be along Atlantic Coast, Southern Bay of Long Island and Queens, and
Twin Forks of LI
 Freshwater Flood Threat: Across much of the region, potential for poor
drainage urban flooding, smaller rivers and streams flooding

Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
When: Around 530 PM Today (Thu)
Method: Email
Web: Facebook:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Phone (public): Twitter:

631-924-0517 http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
YouTube:
E-mail: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
okx.operations@noaa.gov kNY
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

time-sensitive, do not use after 530 PM Thursday (03/01/18).


Stormbrif 2

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Strong Coastal Storm Tonight - Sat

Decision Support Briefing #2

What Has Changed?

High Wind Warning Eastern Long

Coastal Flood Warning Southern

Storm Warning for Ocean, Eastern

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Hazard Impacts Location Timing

• 25 to 40 MPH with gusts 50 to 70

• 2 to 3 inches, localized higher

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Storm Force Winds over Much of the Waters

Wind Damage: Highest Risk Eastern LI and New London CT

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Heavy Snow: Orange NY, Western Passaic NJ

Fresh Water Flooding: Much of the Region

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

• Widespread moderate coastal

• Areas of dune erosion and localized

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Damaging winds will be

 Travel difficult for high

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Smaller rivers and streams

 Poor drainage urban

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Difficult travel conditions.

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 A more rapid intensification may turn rain over to

 Potential for a period of accumulating snow all the

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Several tidal cycle of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding: Highest threat

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Phone (public): Twitter:

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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