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Model 10-03B EXXON-MOBIL CASE

General 10-Year DCF Spreadsheet Valuation Model (Dollar Amounts in Millions Except per Share)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year n+1
Panel A – Inputs for Present Value Calculations
1 Net revenues $ 206,083
2 Revenue growth rate -10.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%
3 NOI
4 Cash tax rate 39.9% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%
5 Income taxes - - - - - - - - - - - -
6 NOPAT $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
7 + Depreciation 8,130 - - - - - - - - - - -
8 – Change in working capital 5,463 - - - - - - - - - - -
9 – Capital expenditures 8,446 - - - - - - - - - - -
10 – Change in other assets net 583 - - - - - - - - - - -
11 Free cash flows $ (6,363) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
12 WACC
1/(1+k)
13 Discount factor
14 Present values

Panel B – Operating Relationships (As a % of Revenues)


NOI 12.22% 12.0% 15.0% 16.0% 16.5% 18.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.5% 16.5% 15.5%
NOPAT 0.0%
Depreciation 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Change in working capital 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Capital expenditures 4.1% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 2.5%
Change in other assets net 0.28% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% 0.1%
Free cash flow -3.1%

Panel C – Valuation Calculations


Part I - Cost of Capital Inputs Part II - Terminal Value (TV) Part III - Valuation Calculation
(a) Risk-free rate 5.60% TV = Free Cash Flowsn+1 / (WACC-g) (1) PV of cash flows, Year 2-11 $ -
(b) Beta 0.80 = (2) PV of terminal value $ -
(c) Equity risk premium 7.00% (3) Marketable securities 73
(d) Tax rate 38.0% (4) Total value of the firm $ -
(e) Cost of equity (5) Value of debt 18972
(f) Cost of debt (before-tax) 7.20% (6) Value of equity $ -
(g) Cost of debt (after-tax) (7) Shares outstanding 3477
(h) Capital structure, % equity 70.00% (8) Intrinsic share price
(i) Base WACC
Exxon Existing Share Price $ 72.00
Potential Gain

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