Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha = 0.4 Alpha = 0.4 Alpha =

period sales forecast error ABS(error) forecast error ABS(error) Squared Error
1 2750 2750.00 - 0.00 2750.00 0.00
2 3100 2750.00 350.00 350.00 2750.00 350.00 350.00 122500.00
3 3250 2890.00 360.00 360.00 2890.00 360.00 360.00 129600.00
4 2800 3034.00 -234.00 234.00 3034.00 -234.00 234.00 54756.00
5 2900 2940.40 -40.40 40.40 2940.40 -40.40 40.40 1632.16
6 3050 2924.24 125.76 125.76 2924.24 125.76 125.76 15815.58
7 3300 2974.54 325.46 325.46 2974.54 325.46 325.46 105921.61
8 3100 3104.73 -4.73 4.73 3104.73 -4.73 4.73 22.34
9 2950 3102.84 -152.84 152.84 3102.84 -152.84 152.84 23358.79
10 3000 3041.70 -41.70 41.70 3041.70 -41.70 41.70 1739.02
11 3200 3025.02 174.98 174.98 3025.02 174.98 174.98 30617.68
12 3150 3095.01 54.99 54.99 3095.01 54.99 54.99 3023.62
13 3117.01
112.27 246.10 77122.04 112.27 169.53 40748.90
BIAS MAD MSE BIAS DAM MSE

Question: What is the forecast for THE 13TH WEEK?

PERIODO 13 3117.01
DAM 169.53
MSE 40748.90

b)Promedio siemple: 3045.833

 Forecast vs. Actual

3300.00
3200.00
Sales

3100.00
3000.00
sales
2900.00 Fcst
(alpha=0.3
2800.00
)
2700.00
2600.00
2500.00
1 2 3 4 5 6
Time
Trend Model (Fit a line to the time series data)

Squared Percent
period YEAR sales forecast error ABS(error) Error Error
1 1 66.9 69.76 -2.86 2.86 8.18 0.04

Sales
2 2 74.8 74.50 0.31 0.31 0.09 0.00 100
3 3 81.2 79.23 1.97 1.97 3.88 0.02 80
4 4 85 83.97 1.04 1.04 1.07 0.01 60
5 5 89.2 88.70 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.01 40
6 6 94.6 93.44 1.17 1.17 1.36 0.01 20
7 7 97.8 98.17 -0.37 0.37 0.14 0.00 0
8 8 101.9 102.91 -1.01 1.01 1.01 0.01 1 2
9 9 106.9 107.64 -0.74 0.74 0.55 0.01
0.00 1.11 1.84 0.01
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE 100
Method 1: Use Excel's function 90
a= 65.025 80

Sales
b= 4.735
70
60
X=11 11 117.11
X=10 10 112.375 50
40
30
20
10
0
0 1

Method 3: Use Excel's Data Analysis | Regression tool

Question: What are the forecasts for next January, Febary, and April?
 Forecast vs. Actual
Sales

100
80
60 sales
40
20
0
1 2 3 Time4 5 6

100
90 f(x) = 5.3x + 63.4
80
Sales

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Time
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.99391332
Coeficiente d 0.98786369
R^2 ajustado 0.98612993
Error típico 1.53653134
Observacione 9

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 1345.2135 1345.2135 569.781533 5.7583E-08
Residuos 7 16.5265 2.36092857
Total 8 1361.74

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 65.025 1.11626414 58.2523415 1.1529E-10 62.3854547 67.6645453 62.3854547
Variable X 1 4.735 0.19836534 23.870097 5.7583E-08 4.2659405 5.2040595 4.2659405
Superior 95.0%
67.6645453
5.2040595
 Weights
w1 = 0.2
w2 = 0.1
w3 = 0.1
3-YEAR Squared Percent
period YEAR sales forecast error ABS(error) Error Error
1 1 4 - - - - -
2 2 6 - - - - -
3 3 4 - - - - -
4 4 5 1.80 3.20 3.20 10.24 0.64
5 5 10 2.00 8.00 8.00 64.00 0.80
6 6 8 2.90 5.10 5.10 26.01 0.64
7 7 7 3.10 3.90 3.90 15.21 0.56
8 8 9 3.20 5.80 5.80 33.64 0.64
9 9 12 3.30 8.70 8.70 75.69 0.73
10 10 14 4.00 10.00 10.00 100.00 0.71
11 11 15 4.90 10.10 10.10 102.01 0.67
12 12 5.60
6.85 6.85 53.35 0.67
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Question: What is the forecast for P12?

5.60
 Chart Title
16

14

12

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Moving Average Model

(1) Simple MA models

3
yearforec
period year sales ast error ABS(error)
1 1 4 - - -
2 2 6 - - -
3 3 4 - - -
4 4 5 4.67 0.33 0.33
5 5 10 5.00 5.00 5.00
6 6 8 6.33 1.67 1.67
7 7 7 7.67 -0.67 0.67
8 8 9 8.33 0.67 0.67
9 9 12 8.00 4.00 4.00
10 10 14 9.33 4.67 4.67
11 11 15 11.67 3.33 3.33
12 12 13.67

2.38 2.54 9.71

BIAS MAD

Question: What is the forecast for 12P?

13.67
 Forecast vs. Actual
Sales

20
15 sales
10
3
5 yearforecast
0
Column G
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time