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The puzzle
Mosthistorians andpoliticalscientists
whostudy wardismissas naivetheview
thatall warsmustbe unwanted becausetheyentaildestruction and suffering.
Instead,mostagreethatwhilea fewwarsmayhavebeen unwanted bythe
leaderswho broughtthemabout-WorldWar I is sometimes givenas an
example-manyor perhapsmostwars were simplywanted.The leaders
involved viewedwaras a costly butworthwhile gamble.5
Moreover, manyscholarsbelievethatwantedwarsareeasilyexplained from
a rationalist
perspective. Wantedwarsarethought tobe Pareto-efficient-they
occurwhenno negotiated settlementsexistthatbothsideswouldprefer tothe
gambleofmilitary conflict.Conventionalwisdomholdsthatwhilethissituation
maybe tragic, itis entirelypossiblebetweenstatesled byrationalleaderswho
considerthe costsand risksof fighting. Unwantedwars,whichtakeplace
despitethe existenceof settlements both sides preferred to conflict,
are
thought toposemoreofa puzzle,butonethatis resolvable andalsofairly rare.
The conventional distinction
betweenwantedandunwanted warsmisunder-
standsthepuzzleposedbywar.The reasonis thatthestandardconception
does notdistinguish betweentwotypesof efficiency-ex ante and expost. As
longas bothsidessuffer somecostsforfighting,thenwaris alwaysinefficientex
post-both sideswouldhavebeen betteroffiftheycouldhaveachievedthe
samefinalresolution withoutsufferingthecosts(orbypaying lowercosts).This
is trueevenifthecostsoffighting aresmall,orifone orbothsidesviewedthe
potential benefitsas greaterthanthecosts,sincethereare stillcosts.Unless
statesenjoytheactivity foritsownsake,as a consumption
offighting good,then
waris inefficient
expost.
Froma rationalist thecentralpuzzleaboutwaris precisely
perspective, this
expost inefficiency.Beforefighting,bothsidesknowthatwarwillentailsome
costs,and eveniftheyexpectoffsetting benefitstheystillhavean incentive to
avoidthecosts.The centralquestion, then,is whatprevents statesina dispute
5. See, forexamples,Geoffry
Blainey,TheCauses of War(New York: Free Press,1973); Michael
Howard,The Causes of Wars(Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversity Press,1983), especiallychap.
1; and ArthurStein, WhyNationsCooperate:Circumstance and Choice in InternationalRelations
(Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell UniversityPress, 1990), pp. 60-64. Even the case of World War I is
contested;an importanthistoricalschool argues that thiswas a wanted war. See Fritz Fisher,
Germany's Aimsin theFirstWorldWar(New York: Norton,1967).
Anarchy
SinceKennethWaltz'sinfluential Man,theState,and War,theanarchical
natureof the international realmis routinely citedas a rootcause of or
explanationforthe recurrence of war. Waltz arguedthatunderanarchy,
withouta supranational authority to make and enforcelaw, "war occurs
becausethereis nothing toprevent it.... Amongstatesas amongmenthereis
no automatic adjustment of interests. In theabsenceof a supremeauthority
thereis thentheconstant possibilitythatconflictswillbe settledbyforce."6
The argument focusesour attention on a fundamental between
difference
domesticand international politics.Withina well-ordered state,organized
violenceas a strategyis ruledout-or at leastmadeverydangerous-bythe
potentialreprisalsof a centralgovernment. In international relations,by
contrast,no agencyexiststhatcancredibly threaten reprisalfortheuseofforce
to settledisputes.7
The claimis thatwithout sucha crediblethreat, warwill
sometimes appearthebestoptionforstatesthathaveconflicting interests.
WhileI do not doubtthatthe conditionof anarchyaccountsformajor
differences betweendomesticand international politics,and thatanarchy
encourages bothfearof and opportunities formilitary thestandard
conflict,
framing oftheargument is notenoughto explainwhywarsoccurand recur.
Underanarchy, nothingstopsstatesfromusingforceiftheywish.Butifusing
forceisa costlyoptionregardless oftheoutcome, thenwhyisiteveremployed?
Howexactly doesthelackofa centralauthority prevent statesfrom negotiating
agreements bothsideswouldpreferto fighting? As it is typically
stated,the
argument thatanarchyprovidesa rationalist explanation forwar does not
addressthisquestionandso doesnotsolvetheproblem posedbywar'sexpost
inefficiency.
Neither,it shouldbe added,do relatedarguments invoking the security
dilemma, thefactthatunderanarchy one state'seffortsto makeitselfmore
securecan havetheundesired butunavoidable effectofmaking anotherstate
lesssecure.8
Byitself thisfactsaysnothing abouttheavailability orfeasibility
of
peacefulbargains thatwouldavoidthecostsofwar.Moreelaboratearguments
arerequired, andthosethataretypically givendo notenvision bargainingand
do notaddressthepuzzleofcosts.Consider, forinstance,a spiralscenarioin
whichan insecure stateincreasesitsarms,rendering another so insecure
thatit
decidestoattack.Ifthefirst stateanticipated thereactionproducing war,then
byitselfthisis a deadlockargument; I argueagainstthesebelow.If thefirst
statedidnotanticipate waranddidnotwantit,thentheproblem wouldseem
to be miscalculationratherthananarchy, andwe needto knowwhysignaling
andbargaining couldnothavesolvedit.As RobertJervis hasargued,anarchy
and thesecurity dilemmamaywellfosterarmsracesand territorial competi-
tion.9Butwiththeexception ofoccasionalreferences to thepreemptive war
problem, thestandardsecurity dilemmaarguments do notexplicitly address
thequestionofwhytheinability tomakecommitments shouldnecessarily make
forwarbetweenrationalstates.10
BelowI willarguethatanarchy is indeedimplicated as a cause ofspecific
sortsofmilitaryconflict(e.g.,preventive andpreemptive warandinsomecases
waroverstrategic territory).In contrast to thestandardarguments, however,
showinghow anarchyfiguresin a coherentrationalist explanationentails
describingthespecific mechanism bywhichstates'inability to writeenforce-
ablecontractsmakespeacefulbargains bothsideswouldprefer unattainable.
Preventivewar
It frequently is arguedthatifa decliningpowerexpectsitmight be attacked
bya risingpowerin thefuture, thena preventive warin thepresentmaybe
rational.Typically, however,preventive war argumentsdo not consider
whether therisingand declining powerscouldconstruct a bargain,perhaps
acrosstime,thatwouldleave bothsidesbetteroffthana costlyand risky
preventive warwould.11 The incentivesforsucha deal surelyexist.The rising
stateshouldnotwanttobe attacked whileitis relatively
weak,so whatstopsit
fromoffering concessions in thepresentand thefuture thatwouldmakethe
decliningstateprefer nottoattack?Also,ifwaris inefficientandbargains both
sidesprefer to a fightwillexist,whyshouldthedeclining powerrationallyfear
being attacked in the future? The standard argumentsupposes that an
12. See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven, Conn.: Yale UniversityPress,
1981), and "The War Trap Revisited:A Revised Expected UtilityModel," AmericanPolitical
ScienceReview79 (March 1985), pp. 157-76. For a generalizationthatintroducesthe idea of a
bargainingrange, see James D. Morrow,"A Continuous-OutcomeExpected UtilityTheoryof
War," Journalof ConflictResolution29 (September 1985), pp. 473-502. Informalversionsof the
expectedutilityargumentare everywhere. For example,Waltz's statementthat"A statewill use
forceto attainitsgoals if,afterassessingtheprospectsforsuccess,itvalues thosegoals morethanit
values thepleasuresof peace" appears in differentwaysin a greatmanyworkson war. See Waltz,
Man, theState,and War,p. 60.
As valueforwar Bargaining
range B's valueforwar
A _ ,.. A. , -- - A
o P-CA X P + CB 1
B's favorite
outcome A's favorite
outcome
FIGURE 1. Thebargaining
range
16. On the theoryof bargainingwith outside options, see Martin J. Osborne and Ariel
Rubinstein,Bargainingand Markets(New York: Academic Press,1990), chap. 3; MottyPerry,"An
Example of Price Formationin BilateralSituations,"Econometrica50 (March 1986), pp. 313-21;
and RobertPowell,"BargainingintheShadowofPower" (University ofCalifornia,Berkeley,1993,
mimeographed).See also the analysesin R. HarrisonWagner,"Peace, War, and the Balance of
Power,"AmericanPoliticalScienceReview88 (September1994), pp. 593-607; and Wagner,"The
Causes ofPeace."
17. See, for example, Evan Luard, War in InternationalSociety(New Haven, Conn.: Yale
University Press,1992), p. 191. Schroedernotesthat"patronage,bribes,and corruption"were "a
majorelement"ofeighteenth-century international
relations.See Paul Schroeder,TheTransforma-
tionofEuropeanPolitics,1763-1848 (Oxford:OxfordUniversity Press,1994),p. 579.
18. On Cuba, see Ernest May, ImperialDemocracy(New York: Harper and Row, 1961), pp.
149-50. On the Louisiana purchase,militarythreatsraised in the U.S. Senate apparentlymade
Napoleon more eager to negotiatethe sale. See E. Wilson Lyon,Louisiana in FrenchDiplomacy
(Norman:University ofOklahoma Press,1934),pp. 179 and 214ff.
19. Diego Gambetta,The SicilianMafia: TheBusinessofPrivateProtection(Cambridge,Mass.:
HarvardUniversity Press,1993),p. 214.
20. In one of the only articles on this problem, Morrow proposes a private information
explanationforstates'failuresto linkissues in manydisputes.See JamesD. Morrow,"Signaling
Difficulties
withLinkage in CrisisBargaining,"International 36 (June 1992), pp.
StudiesQuarterly
153-72.
21. See JackLevy,"The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence," in Philip E.
Tetlock et al., eds., Behavior,Society,and Nuclear War,vol. 1 (Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,
1989), pp. 209-333. Recent work using limited-information game theoryto analyze crisis
bargainingplaces the strategicconsequencesof privateinformation at the centerof the analysis.
See, forexamples,Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, Warand Reason (New Haven,
Conn.: Yale UniversityPress, 1992); JamesD. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences and the
Escalationof InternationalDisputes,"AmericanPoliticalScienceReview88 (September1994), pp.
577-92; JamesD. Morrow,"Capabilities,Uncertainty, and Resolve: A LimitedInformation Model
of CrisisBargaining,"AmericanJournalofPoliticalScience33 (November1989), pp. 941-72; Barry
Nalebuff,"Brinksmanshipand Nuclear Deterrence: The Neutralityof Escalation," Conflict
Managementand Peace Science9 (Spring1986), pp. 19-30; and RobertPowell,NuclearDeterrence
Theory:TheProblemofCredibility (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity Press,1990).
22. Blainey,TheCauses of War,p. 246.
what mightbe gained in bargaining,it will run some riskof war in hopes of
gainingon the ground. So Blainey's suggestionthat a disagreementabout
relativepoweris necessaryforwar is incorrect-all thatis necessaryis thatthe
states in dispute be unable to locate or agree on some outcome in the
bargainingrange.Since the bargainingrangeis determinednotjust byrelative
powerbut also by states'values forthe issues at stake relativeto the costs of
fighting,uncertainty about thelattercan (and apparentlydoes) producewar.
Once again,itis entirelyplausiblethatstateleadershaveprivateinformation
about theirvalue forvarious internationalinterestsrelativeto theircosts of
fightingover them.32Thus it seems we have a second tenable rationalist
explanationforwar,again based on the conceptof privateinformation. But as
in thecase ofdisagreements aboutrelativepower,theexplanationfailsas given
because it does not explainwhystatescannotavoid miscalculatinga potential
opponent'swillingnessto fight.In the model,whycannot state A simplyask
stateB whetheritwouldfightratherthanacquiesce to a particulardemand?To
givea concreteexample,whydid Germanleaders in 1914 not simplyask their
Britishand Russian counterparts whattheywould do ifAustriawere to attack
Serbia? Iftheycould have done so and iftheanswerscould havebeen believed,
the Germans mightnot have miscalculatedconcerningRussian and, more
importantly, Britishwillingnessto fight.In consequence they mighthave
avoidedthehorrendouscostsofWorldWar I.
To recap,I have arguedthatin a rationalistframework, disagreements about
relativepowerand uncertainty about a potentialopponent'swillingnessto fight
musthave thesame source:leaders' privateinformation about factorsaffecting
thelikelycourseofa waror theirresolveto fightoverspecificinterests.In order
to avoid war's expost inefficiency,leaders have incentivesto share any such
private information,which would have the effectof revealing peaceful
settlementsthatlie withinthe bargainingrange.So, to explainhow war could
occurbetweenstatesled byrationalleaderswho considerthe costsof fighting,
we need to explain what would preventthem from sharingsuch private
information.
32. For examplesand discussionon thispoint,see Fearon, "Threatsto Use Force," chap. 3.
49. See, for example, William Langer, "The Originsof the Russo-Japanese War," in Carl
Schorske and Elizabeth Schorske,eds., Explorationsin Crisis(Cambridge: Harvard University
Press,1969),p. 44.
50. For some examples,see Fearon, "Threats to Use Force," chap. 3. For a formalversionof
reputationaldynamicsdue to privateinformation,see BarryNalebuff,"Rational Deterrencein an
ImperfectWorld,"WorldPolitics43 (April 1991),pp. 313-35.
War as a consequenceofcommitment
problems
Preventivewar as a commitmentproblem
Empirically,
preventivemotivations seem moreprevalentand important
thanpreemptive concerns.In hisdiplomatic of Europefrom1848to
history
1918,A.J.P.Taylorarguedthat"everywarbetweentheGreatPowers[inthis
war,nota warofconquest."58
as a preventive
period]started In thissubsection
54. For the argumentabout leaders' viewson first-strike advantagesin 1914,see StephenVan
Evera,"The Cult of theOffensiveand the Originsof theFirstWorldWar,"International Security9
(Summer1984),pp. 58-107.
55. See, forexample,Trachtenberg, Historyand Strategy,p. 90.
56. This is suggested by results in Roger Myerson and Mark Satterthwaite,"Efficient
MechanismsforBilateralTrading,"JournalofEconomicTheory29 (April 1983),pp. 265-81.
57. Schellingsuggestedthatefficient coordinationin staghunt-likepreemptionproblemsmight
be preventedbya rationaldynamicof "reciprocalfearof surpriseattack."See Thomas Schelling,
The Strategy of Conflict(Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversity Press, 1960), chap. 9. Powell has
argued that no such dynamicexistsbetween rational adversaries.See Robert Powell, "Crisis
Stabilityin the NuclearAge,"AmericanPoliticalScienceReview83 (March 1989),pp. 61-76.
58. Taylor,The Struggle for Masteryin Europe, 1848-1918 (London: OxfordUniversityPress,
1954), p. 166. Carr held a similarview: "The mostseriouswars are foughtin orderto make one's
and theproblem
Commitment,strategicterritory,
of appeasement
The objectsover whichstatesbargainfrequently are themselvessources of
militarypower.Territory is the mostimportantexample,since it mayprovide
economicresourcesthatcan be used forthemilitary or be strategically
located,
meaningthatitscontrolgreatlyincreasesa state'schancesforsuccessfulattack
or defense.Territoryis probablyalso the main issue over whichstates fight
wars.66
In internationalbargainingon issues with this property,a commitment
problem can operate that makes mutuallypreferablenegotiatedsolutions
unattainable.The problemis similarto thatunderlying preventivewar. Here,
bothsides mightprefersome packageofterritorial concessionsto a fight,
butif
the territory in question is strategically
vital or economicallyimportant,its
transfer could radicallyincreaseone side's futurebargainingleverage(thinkof
the Golan Heights).In principle,one statemightpreferwar to the statusquo
butbe unable to commitnotto exploitthelargeincreasein bargainingleverage
it would gain fromlimitedterritorial concessions.Thus the otherstate might
preferwar to limitedconcessions(appeasement),so it mightappear thatthe
issues in dispute were indivisible.But the underlyingcause of war in this
instanceis not indivisibilityper se but ratherthe inabilityof statesto make
crediblecommitments underanarchy.67
As an example,the 1939 WinterWar betweenFinlandand theSovietUnion
followedon the refusalof the Finnishgovernment to cede some tinyislandsin
the Gulf of Finland that Stalin seems to have viewed as necessaryfor the
defenseof Leningradin theeventof a European war. One of themainreasons
the Finnswere so reluctantto grantthese concessionswas thattheybelieved
theycould not trustStalinnot to use theseadvantagesto pressureFinlandfor
Conclusion
68. See Max Jakobson,The Diplomacyof the WinterWar:An Account of the Russo-Finnish
Conflict,1939-1940 (Cambridge,Mass.: Harvard UniversityPress, 1961), pp. 135-39; and Van
Evera, "Causes of War," p. 63. Privateinformation
and incentivesto misrepresentalso caused
problemsin thebargaininghere. See Fearon,"Threatsto Use Force," chap. 3.
Appendix
Proofsofseveralclaimsmadeinthetextareprovided here.Throughout,
"equilibrium"
refers
tothesolution concept"perfect
Bayesianequilibrium."69
Take-it-or-leave-itinternationalbargaining
gameis structured
The take-it-or-leave-it Naturedrawsa costofwarfor
as follows.
stateB, cB, froma cumulative realnumbers
H(z) on thenonnegative
distribution witha
strictly
positivedensityfunctionh(z) anda nondecreasinghazardrateh(z)/(1- H(z)).70
StateB observesCBbutA doesnot.StateA movesfirst, choosinga demandx E [0,1].B
observesthedemandand chooseswhether or not.As discussedin thetext,
to fight
payoffsare(p - CA, 1 - p - CB) ifB fights
and(x,1 - x) ifB doesnotfight.
CLAIM 2. Thetake-it-or-leave-it
gamehasa generically unique perfect
Bayesian
equilibrium
inwhichA demandsx* andB fights ifandonlyifcB < x - p. Thedemandx*isdefined
as
follows:
(i)x* =pifh(O) > I/cA, (ii)x* = 1 if
h(l - p) 1
(1 - H(1 - p)) (1 -p + CA)
(iii)otherwise,
x*istheuniquesolution
to
h(x- p) 1
(1-H(x -p)) (x-p + c,J
theexanteriskofwarisalways
Moreover, forsmallenough
positive thanzero.
cA greater
h(x-p) 1
- '
(1 H(x - p)) (x - p + CAY
h(1 - p) 1
(1 - H(1 - p)) (1 -p + CA)
thenx*= 1 maximizes
uA(x);(3) anyx*E [p,1]thatsolves
h(x-p) 1
(1-H(x-p)) (x-p+CA)
Take-it-or-leave-itinternationalbargaining
withcommunication (cheap talk)
I now modify
the take-it-or-leave-it
game by allowingstateB to choose (after
observingits costs forwar) an announcementf froma large but finiteset of possible
speeches, F. After the announcement,the game proceeds exactlyas before with
identicalpayoffs. To avoidsome measure-theoretic complications, I willconsidera finite
approximation of the game analyzedabove. Naturechooses stateB's typefromthe set
T = {cO,C1, C2,. -,. ci,... ., C,, n >> 0, accordingto a discretepriordistribution h(.),
whereh(ci) = Pr (CB = ci) and h(ci) > 0 forall ci C T. The elementsof T satisfyco = 0
and (byconvention) ci < cj foralli < j, where4j E N - (O,1,2,... ,nJ. LetH(ci) - 1h(cj)
denotethepriorprobability less thanci,lettingH(co) = 0.
thatB's cost is strictly
In the game with talk, state B has a messagestrategy that gives a probability
distributionon all possiblemessagesin F foreach typein the set T. Let m(f ci) be the
probabilitythattypeci announcesspeech f in a givenequilibrium.State A's demand
strategy now associateswitheachf a probability distributionover [0, 1]. Let x(f) be the
demandmade byA on hearingfwheneverA does notmixgiventheannouncement.In a
givenequilibriumofthegamewithtalk,stateA willformposteriorbeliefsaboutB's type
-
foreachmessagefi Let thesebe denotedh(ci, f) Pr(cB = ciIf),withH(ci,f) 10
h(cj,f).
For convenience,I willassumethatifB is indifferent betweenrejectingand accepting
a demandx,B acceptsforsure.
PROPOSITION.Ifx*istheuniqueequilibrium
demandinthegamewithout talk,theninany
ofthegamewithtalkinwhich
equilibrium stateA usesa purestrategy,
(1) stateA demands
x*regardless and(2) theexanteriskofwaristhesameas inthegame
oftheannouncement;
withouttalk.
Theprooffollows
from
severallemmas.
LEMMA 1. In anyequilibriumA's
payoffisatleastp, andinnoequilibrium
willArespond
to
anymessagewitha demandthatissuretoyieldwar.
LEMMA2. In anyequilibrium,
thedemandx isinthesupport
ofA'sdemand
strategy
given
a
fonlyifthere
message a ciC Tsuchthatx= p + ci.
exists
Proof of Lemma 3. Let Tf =fci: m(f ci) > O}. Suppose to the contrarythatin some
equilibriumthereexisttwodistinctmessagesfandf ' suchthatx(f) < x(f '). ByLemma
thatthereare
implying
1, bothdemandsmustbe acceptedwithpositiveprobability,
typesci E Tfsuchthat1 - x(f) ? 1 -p - ci and typescj E Tf'suchthat1 - x(f ') ? 1 -
p - cj.Butthenanysuchcj E Tf'can do strictly betterbydeviating tof whichgivesit
1 - x(f) > 1 - x(f'). But thisimpliesthatx(f') is certainly rejected,contradicting
Lemma1. D
Proofoftheproposition.Supposex* = p + Ckistheuniqueequilibriumdemandinthe
gamewithouttalk.ThenCkis theonlyelementofT suchthatforallj E N,
H(Ck)(P -
CA) + (1- H(Ck))(p + Ck) ? H(c)(p - CA) + (1 -H(cM))(p + cj). (1)
j-1~ ~ 1j-1]
> [ h(ci)m(f, ci)] (p - CA) + [Pr(f) - E h(ci)m(f,ci)] (p + cj). (3)
i=O i=O
Since equation (3) holds foreachf E F', we can sum bothsides over allf E F' and the
stillhold.Thus,forallj E N,
inequalities
L h(ci) fEci)E
m(f (p - CA) + [ Pr(f ) - Eh(ci) m(f,ci)J (p + cl)