Palompo, Mariella S.

AB Foreign Service, FS302

International Political Economy

Sir. Jumel G. Estrañero

March 5, 2018

A Contest between Conflicting China & US: The Struggle for Dominance and Brewing
World War III

Power is morally neutral but can also be morally destructive. In this sphere where the pursuit of
power among states is prevalent there comes two of the world’s greatest power: China and the
United States. These two countries implicitly vie with each other for power and hegemony,
particularly in Southeast Asia region. However, a strong presence of the United States was
indeed felt among the majority of the Southeast Asian countries. The question here is: will the
United States be able to maintain its power in the region or will there be a twist of fate?

The Philippines, in particular, was a former colony of the United States and has historically been
its strong ally. The Philippine government institutions were modeled after those of the United
States and continue to share fundamental bilateral relations with each other. One corroborative
example was the Philippine former President Mr. Benigno Aquino III who established closer
military ties with the US to manage China’s threat during his term.

However, the recently elected Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte sought to break that
prevailing connotation by marking a shift from a strong ally of United States to strengthening its
relations with China. Mr. Duterte’s move towards a more peaceful and friendly relations to
China, caught the attention of the many particularly the international community, taking into
account the aggressive posture of China in the South China Sea and the ruling of the Permanent
Court of Arbitration (PCA) last July 12, 2016 that favoured the Philippines over China’s claims
to the most of the South China Sea, which in effect rejected immediately by China.

Nonetheless, we cannot question the President’s way of dealing with China, for everyone must
understand that China’s military capabilities are far way better than of the Philippines. Hence,
this might be a better way to still uphold the country’s sovereignty over the disputed islands
without going into battle with China. Notably, the Philippines has also benefitted from its close
ties with China especially on their strategic partnership, the “BUILD BUILD BUILD” project of
Mr. Duterte.

China –- the awakening giant next door in Southeast Asia, has been significantly growing its
breadth in terms of economic and political influence in Southeast Asia. The United States, on the
other hand, is trying to rebalance its influence in the region. Just recently, U.S President Donald
Trump discussed with Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Indo-Pacific “concept”. Thereupon,
causing amid speculation that Washington might be “softening the ground” for a comeback of
the so-called “Quadrilateral” strategic alliance between US, Japan, Australia, and India to hinder
China’s rise. However, United States alone can’t coerce China because it would severely damage
its American Economy. In effect, China which is aware of the dodging United States, relentlessly
do whatever it wants.

In my own analytical perspective, Philippines’ sound relationship with China and a historical yet
fundamental bilateral relationship with the United States doesn’t guarantee that these two
countries are laying all their cards on the table. The sad truth is that states can never be certain
about the other states’ intentions. We really cannot exactly determine the exact face of a state
behind its mask. And that the goal of a superpower country like the US and China is ‘survival’,
for survival undermines the motives, thus it means that to seek to maintain power, territorial
integrity and dominance are the telos of those powerful states.

China and United States’ bilateral relations were indeed in a form of a “Thucydides trap”. Mr.
Graham Allison was right when he referred to: as China escalates fear into an established power
which is the United States it may move towards war.

Analysing the conflicting politics and economy of the two countries one can discern that there
are numerous reasons why there is really a potentially brewing war between China and the
United States. However, one should contemplate that this war is not just between those two
countries above-mentioned, but a greater chaos might be anticipated for China and US are the
two most powerful countries in the world.

First potential cause of the impending war is the proposal of China to extend Xi Jinping’s term
beyond 2023. The extension would boost China’s road to hegemony. If that happens the
multipolar world order will be again, a unipolar not under the United States but of China.

Second is that China’s desire to have extensive fishing capabilities will continue its aggressive
disposition on the South China Sea. In effect, South China Sea may become a “cradle of
Conflicting Civilizations”, especially if the proposed “Quadrilateral” alliance to counter China
will be pushed through.

The third is that the aim of China to have an alliance completely different from the United States
means that China might opt for a strategy similar to the United States’ which is building its
alliances in Asia. China might weaken United States’ influence in Asia by provoking the allies of
the United States until they ask for US Military assistance. As mentioned earlier, China already
knew that United States doesn’t want to confront them because the US doesn’t want a potential
clash with China. With the measures done by China, the United States will be forced to leave its
allies in Asia, thus, weakening its alliances. China, on the other hand, will strike while the iron is
hot to enhance its powers.
If the war breaks out, Philippines will be very much affected, for it may be forced to take sides
between China and the United States. However, while the sea is still calm, the Philippines must
take advantage of establishing its allies, not just ties with China and the United States, but also
its neighboring countries like Japan, Australia, and others. The Philippines must stay neutral in
order to avoid greater conflicts and must help in pacifying the tension between China and the
United States.