Quebec

Voter Intention Numbers

6th March 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey was conducted between February
28th to March 1st, 2018 among a sample of
1062 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Quebec. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the following regions;
the Montreal CMA, Quebec City CMA, and the
rest of Quebec. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional
question of what region of the province they
resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.05% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montreal:
Steven Pinkus, Vice President
info@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
CAQ OPENS UP FOUR POINT LEAD OVER COUILLARD LIBERALS

6 March 2018 (Montreal, QC) – The Coalition Avenir Quebec have opened up a four point lead
over the governing Liberals among decided and leaning voters, a new Mainstreet Research poll
finds.

The poll surveyed 1062 residents of Quebec aged 18 and over between February 28th and March 1st.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.05% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The CAQ have put some daylight between themselves and the Liberals compared to our last
Quebec poll,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, the
number of undecided respondents has gone up which points to future voter volatility.”

The CAQ currently enjoy 32% support – unchanged from January, while the Liberals have fallen
nearly four percent to 27.8%. The Parti Quebecois currently have 19.8% support (+1.7% from
January), while the Quebec Solidaire have 10.8% (-4.1%).

20.7% of respondents said that they were unsure about their voting intentions in the upcoming
election in October. This is an increase from the 14.4% who said they were undecided in
Mainstreet’s January Quebec poll.

“It is important to remember that we were fielding in the two days immediately following the news
that 7 of the 10 Bloc Quebecois MPs were leaving the party and would sit as independents,” continued
Maggi. “This news certainly would send shockwaves across Quebec and may be part of the reason
for the increased undecided rate.”

While the Liberals enjoy a six percent lead over the CAQ in Greater Montreal, the CAQ have strong
leads in the Quebec City region and in the rest of Quebec. However, when looking at respondents
living on the Island of Montreal compared to those living in the suburbs of Montreal, there
are differences in support for the Liberals and the CAQ.

“The Liberals lead the CAQ by a little more than 10% over the CAQ on the Island, while the
CAQ have a 4.6% lead over the Couillard Liberals in the Montreal suburbs,” Maggi said. “This is
increasing evidence that the Montreal suburbs and perhaps the east island of Montreal may be
vulnerable areas for the PLQ in the upcoming election.”

Although these numbers represent a gain for the CAQ and especially in some demographics, they
continue to underperform among female voters.

“The changes in some of the demographics and the increases in undecided points to volatility in the
electorate, this may be a short term trend or a new ‘normal’ in Quebec politics as it were”, Maggi
concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Steven Pinkus, (514)-205-6121, info@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

(decided and leaning voters)

 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Quebec Liberal Party led by Philippe
Couillard What is your age group?
Parti Quebecois led by Jean-François 18 to 34 years of age
Lisée 35 to 49 years of age
Coalition Avenir Quebec led by 50 to 64 years of age
François Legault 65 years of age or older
Québec solidaire represented by
Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-
Dubois
Conservative Party of Quebec led by
Adrien Pouliot
New Democratic Party of Quebec led
by Raphaël Fortin
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Quebec Liberal Party led by Philippe
Couillard
Parti Quebecois led by Jean-François
Lisée
Coalition Avenir Quebec led by
François Legault
Québec solidaire represented by
Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-
Dubois
Conservative Party of Quebec led by
Adrien Pouliot
New Democratic Party of Quebec led
by Raphaël Fortin
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between February 28th,
2018 and March 1st, 2018, among a sample of 1062 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of the province of Quebec.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialling. The part of the survey
that dialed the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three different regions of
Quebec: the Montreal CMA, Quebec City CMA, and the rest of Quebec. In the case of the
random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region they
resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Quebec. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region by language.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.05% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample and are as follows: Men: +/- 4.04%, Women: +/- 4.5%, 18-34 age
group: +/- 8%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.89%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.79%, Over 65 age group:
+/- 5.25%. Montreal CMA: +/- 3.81 %, Quebec City CMA: +/- 8.06%, the rest of Quebec: +/-
6.15 %.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.