Filion - Mojica - Rupert

21 March, 2017
10B
The Box of Fate

Carnivals bring out the child in everyone. As the games are played, anyone can feel

youthful again, even just for a moment in time. When designing the carnival game, this idea

needs to be intertwined. The carnival game project is a somewhat challenging series of tasks that

incorporate concepts of probability, while still being able to grab the attention of on lookers. The

goal of this project is to convince a carnival owner of purchasing a game that brings in a

desirable profit. Constructing a game in favor of the owner involves calculating the relative

frequencies of the different aspects of the game and comparing these results to the theoretical

probabilities. It also involves building a game that attracts players and invites them to keep on

playing. Actually playing the game, as well as simulations were very helpful in developing this

game. Incorporating all of these aspects into one project was challenging, but also very

rewarding. Come on and test your luck at the Box of Fate!

I. ​Description, Rules & Directions:

Carnival games are designed to make the experience of going to the carnival and riding

rides all the more fun. The Box of Fate is simply that: fun! This game gains a profit from the

players while keeping them entertained and enthralled. It is designed to test the probability of the

player winning a sucker, two Dewey Dollars, five Dewey Dollars, or losing. The Box of Fate

costs two Dewey Dollars to play, but the players have the potential to win incredible prizes. They

will be exposed to a calculator, open a box, possibly win a sucker, or even move onto the

exciting spinner. If a player gets to spin the spinner, he or she could win up to five dollars! This

game is simple, yet thrilling for people of all ages. Follow the directions listed below to play.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 2

Directions:

1. Pay two Dewey Dollars to play. Place your money on top of the pile of money located

next to the game.

2. Press enter on the calculator located on the desk. A number 1-8 will appear on the right

hand side of the calculator screen. This number corresponds with the box that will be

opened.

3. Open the box with the corresponding number behind it.

​

4. Read the piece of paper located within the box.

5. If “You get a sucker!” is on the piece of paper, your turn is over, but before you leave

grab a sucker and shuffle the boxes for the next player.

6. If “Go to the spinner” is received, move over to the spinner.

7. You are now at the spinner. Spin the spinner hard enough for it to rotate at least once and

wait for it to stop.

8. If the tab lands on a gold space, then you have won five Dewey Dollars!

9. If the tab lands on a turquoise space, then you have won two Dewey Dollars!

10. S
​ adly, if the tab lands on either a black or white space, then you do not win anything.

11. Collect your prize if you have won anything, if nothing was won move onto step 11.

12. Go over to the boxes and shuffle them in any order you would like for the next player.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 3

II. ​Theoretical Probability 1:

In order to properly analyze this game, the sample space must first be determined, as well

as the theoretical probability of winning and losing. As you explore the reasons why this game is

perfect for your carnival from a mathematical standpoint, keep in mind the two most important

aspects of carnival games: the profit from the game and the demand for it.

A) Sample Space

Figure 1. Tree Diagram

The tree diagram above helps to determine the sample space. The player could wind up

with eight different boxes. Four of them tell the player to stop playing and receive a sucker,

while the other four tell the player to advance to the spinner. In this case, the four boxes that tell

the player to advance to the spinner are odd numbers one to eight, and the four boxes that tell the

player to stop playing are represented as even numbers one to eight. If the player spins, they

could land on four different colors. As shown above, W represents landing on white, T

represents landing on turquoise, B represents landing on black, and G represents landing on gold.

Therefore, the sample space is {1W, 1T, 1G, 1B, 2, 3W, 3T, 3G, 3B, 4, 5W, 5T, 5G, 5B, 6, 7W,

7T, 7G, 7B, 8}. In the game only 4 boxes tell the player if they won a sucker or if they move
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 4

onto the spinner, but when the players randomize the order of the boxes, the numbers in which

those messages appear changes. Due to this occurrence, the numbers will change in every game.

B) Probabilities

In this game, winning is considered winning five Dewey dollars, two Dewey Dollars, or a

sucker. To win, the player must either receive the message “You get a sucker!” in the box, spin

the wheel and land on gold, or spin the wheel and land on turquoise. Losing is considered not

recieving any sort of prize. This happens when the player advances to the spinner and lands on

white or black. The player wins more often than not.

P(winning $5/Gold) = Spinner ⋂ Gold

P(winning $5/Gold) = 12 × 14 = 18 = .125
Figure 2. Probability of Winning Five Dollars

Figure 2 above shows the probability of winning the ultimate prize, five dollars. The

probability of spinning the wheel is ½, and the probability of landing on gold is ¼. These values

are multiplied because the player has to spin the wheel ​and​ land on gold to win five dollars. By

multiplying these values, the probability of winning five dollars is found to be ⅛, or 0.125.

P(winning $2/Turquoise) = Spinner ⋂ Turquoise

P(winning $2/Turquoise) = 12 × 14 = 18 = .125
Figure 3. Probability of Winning Two Dollars

Figure 3 above shows the probability of winning two dollars. The probability of spinning

the wheel is ½, and the probability of landing on turquoise is ¼. Since the probability of landing

on turquoise is the same as the probability of landing on gold, the same procedure that was used

in Figure 2 is used here. By multiplying ½ by ¼, the probability of winning two dollars is found

to be ⅛, or 0.125.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 5

P(losing) =P(White) or P(Black) = Spinner ⋂ White or​ Spinner ⋂ Black

P(losing) =P(White) or P(Black) = 12 × 14 + 12 × 14 = 18 + 18 = 14 = .25
Figure 4. Probability of Losing

Figure 4 above shows the probability of losing the game, or not winning anything. The

player loses when he or she lands on white or black on the spinner. Since the probability of

landing on white is ⅛ and the probability of landing on black is ⅛, these values are added to get

¼, or 0.25.

1
P(sucker) = 2

Figure 5. Probability of Winning a Sucker

Figure 5 shows the probability of winning a sucker. Since half of the initial boxes the

player could wind up with have the paper that says, “You get a sucker!”, the probability of

winning a sucker is ½.

The probability of winning a prize (a sucker, two Dewey Dollars, or five Dewey Dollars)

is very high. When these three probabilities are added together, they produce the P(winning) =

¾. This will keep players playing because they know that there is a very high chance that they

will win atleast something. The players will most likely overlook the price that they have to pay

for the satisfaction of winning.

III. ​Theoretical Probability ​II:

Table 1
Theoretical Probability Distribution Chart
$ -2 -1.91 0 3

P($) 1/4 1/2 1/8 1/8

 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 6

$*P($) -0.50 -0.96 0 0.375

Total
$*P($) -1.08

Table 1 above shows the probability distribution chart of this game. The expected value,

or how much the player will gain or lose per game, is -$1.08. This means that the player loses

approximately $1.08 per game, over time, which goes to the operator.

IV. ​Relative Frequencies/ Experimental Probabilities:

The first way that this game was tested was by doing 50 trials of the game. Relative

frequencies were then recorded, and the expected value was then calculated. This helps to

determine if the game has any flaws in the design or if there is any detectable bias.

10
P(losing) = 50 = 0.2
27
P(sucker) = 50 = 0.54
5
P(winning $2/turquoise) = 50 = 0.1
8
P(winning $5/gold) = 50 = 0.16
Figure 6. Probability of the Outcomes from Trials

The figure above shows the probability of losing, winning a sucker, winning $2, and

winning $5. These probabilities were calculated by taking the number of outcomes for each

probability over the total number of outcomes. For example, for the probability of winning a

sucker the total number of times the player got a sucker (27 times) was divided by the total

number of outcomes, which was 50. This produced the probability of 0.54 for winning a sucker.

The probabilities in the trials were within 0.05 of the theoretical probabilities. This means that

the trials were consistent and the game design most likely does not have any bias.

Table 2
Probability Distribution Chart for 50 Trials
$ -2 -1.91 0 3
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 7

P($) 10/50 27/50 5/50 8/50

$*P($) -0.40 -1.03 0 0.48

Total
$*P($) -0.95

Table 2 shows the probability distribution chart that was used to organize and calculate

the average amount of money that was gained per trial, also known as expected value. The

expected value was -$0.9514 which is approximately -$0.95. This was found by multiplying the

amount of money that the player lost or gained for each outcome by their respective relative

frequencies. Once this was completed, the $*P($) results were all added together. This produced

the expected value of -$0.95, meaning that the player lost approximately $0.95 per game. The

money then went to the operator.

During the 50 trials of playing the game, the players were kept enthralled. They won

suckers almost half of the time, which was expected. All of the probabilities were relatively

similar to the ones in the theoretical probability, in fact they were between 0.025 and 0.05 off. If

more trials were performed, this number would have decreased due to the law of large numbers.

The law of large numbers states that the larger the number of trials, the more consistent the

results will become. Overall, the 50 trials had a great turn out for the operator.

A second way that was used to test the Box of Fate, was done by using an online

simulation. This online simulation was a great way to represent the game. It was programmed for

the specific needs of this game by the operator and then trials were run. The online simulation

provided the relative frequencies, and the expected value was then calculated.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 8

In order to successfully simulate this carnival game, an online simulator was used

(​http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/​). This proved to be the most

efficient way to simulate 500 trials, taking the probabilities of each outcome into consideration.

Figure 7. Simulation Part One

Figure 7 above shows the first part of the simulation. To simulate the player either

choosing a bag that allows them to spin or not spin, a two-sector spinner was used. Since there is

an equally likely chance of the player going on to spin or not spinning and only receiving a

sucker, the sectors were equal as well. In this scenario, blue means the player goes on to spin,

and pink means they do not, receiving a sucker instead. After this was simulated 500 times, it

was found that 224 players went on to spin and 276 players did not.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 9

Figure 8. Simulation Part Two

Figure 8 shows the second and final part of the simulation. To simulate the player

spinning and landing on the four different colors, a four-sector spinner was used. Since there

was an equal probability of each color, each sector was equal. Due to little color variety on this

website, in this scenario, blue represents turquoise, gray represents black, crimson represents

gold, and white represents white. There were 224 trials simulated because, as shown in Figure 6,

224 of the original 500 simulated players advanced to the spinner. After simulating these trials,

it was found that 57 players landed on turquoise, 59 landed on black, 47 landed on gold, and 61

landed on white.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 10

Table 3
Relative Frequency for Winning and Losing
$ -2 -1.91 0 3

How to Get 224 61 224 59 276 224 57 224 47

500
× 224
+ 500
× 224 500 500
× 224 500
× 224
P($)

P($) 0.240 0.552 0.114 0.094

$*P($) -0.480 -1.054 0 0.282

Total
$*P($) -1.252

Table 3 above shows the relative frequencies of winning and losing for the simulation, as

well as the average money lost by the player per trial. Remember that in this game, the player

wins every time he or she wins either a sucker, two Dewey Dollars, or five Dewey Dollars. In

order to find the relative frequencies of generally winning or losing, also known as the expected

value, the specific frequencies for each scenario had to be found first. In this simulation, pink

represented the player not advancing to the spinner and instead winning a sucker, shown above

as -$1.91 (refer to Figure 6). This happened 276 times in 500 trials, so the probability of the

player winning a sucker was found to be 0.552. As shown in Figure 7, blue represented the

player winning two Dewey Dollars, (which evens out with the two dollars it costs to play). This

occurred 57 times out of 224 in the simulation, so that value was multiplied by 224/500, the

relative frequency of the player advancing to the spinner, to reach a relative frequency of 0.114.

Following this same method explained above, the relative frequency of winning five Dewey

Dollars was found to be 0.094 by substituting 47 in for 57. The player loses two Dewey Dollars

when he or she lands on white or black, so the frequency of losing was found by adding the

frequency of landing on white and the frequency of landing on black. Using the values from the
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 11

simulation once again, the frequency of losing was found to be 0.240. By subtracting the relative

frequency of losing (0.240) from one, the relative frequency of winning anything was found to

be 0.760.

The third row of Table 3 shows the average amount of money gained or lost for each

outcome. These values were added to find the average amount of money lost by the player each

trial, -$1.252. This means that the game will gain a profit of $1.25 each time someone plays it.

Therefore, the carnival would definitely benefit from this game.

Figure 9. Simulation Part Three - Java

Figure 9 shows the results of the 5,000 trials of the Java program. The expected value of

the trials was found to be -$1.1227 or about -$1.12, where the player can expect to lose $1.12

each game over time. This was found by multiplying each of the payouts from the player’s

perspective times the probabilities of each payout.

The Java program was written so that it followed the order of the game. First, the entire

simulation portion of the program was placed into a loop that ran 5,000 times. Then, eight

random numbers, one through eight, were generated to simulate which box the player was

supposed to open. If the generated number was an odd number, then the player would get a
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 12

sucker, and would not get to spin the wheel. Otherwise, if the generated number was even, then

the player could proceed to spin the wheel. Here, another set of numbers, one through four were

generated randomly to simulate landing on a color. Generating a one simulates the player landing

on a white section of the spinner, a two simulates landing on a black section of the spinner, a

three simulates the player landing on a blue/turquoise section of the spinner, and a four

simulates landing on a gold section of the spinner. Each trial was counted and the results of how

many times the player won a sucker or won money were reported at the end of the program. The

full java program can be seen in Appendix A.

The results of the relative frequencies in the simulation are very close to the theoretical

probabilities (refer to Table 1). The relative frequency of getting a sucker, 0.4944 is only slightly

lower than the theoretical probability of 0.5. The relative frequencies of landing on the colored

faces of the spinner are also differ very slightly than the theoretical probability of 0.125, but are

still roughly the same throughout the colors.

Table 4
Probability Distribution for 5,000 Trials
$ -2 -1.91 0 3
655 667 1322 2472 622 584
P($) 5000
+ 5000
= 5000 5000 5000 5000

$*P($) -0.5288 -0.9443 0 0.3504

Total
$*P($) -1.12

Table 4 shows the player payouts, the probability of getting such payouts, and the

probability multiplied by the payout, based on the results of the 5,000 Java simulation trials.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 13

Each probability multiplied by its respective payout was added together to find the expected

value of about -$1.12.

Because of the Law of Large Numbers, which states that as the number of trials increase,

the relative frequency will approach the theoretical probability, it was found that as the number

of trials increased from 50, to 500, to 5,000, that the experimental probabilities of landing on

each color on the spinner, and the experimental probability of getting a sucker all became closer

to their theoretical probabilities. The expected value also approached the theoretical expected

value as the number of trials increased, with the 50 trials having an expected value of -$0.95,

from the player’s perspective, which is $0.13 less than the theoretical expected value of -$1.08.

For the 500 trial simulation, the expected value was -$1.25, which is $0.17 greater than the

theoretical expected value. The 5,000 trial Java simulation had the closest expected value at

-$1.12, which is only $0.04 greater than the theoretical expected value.

V. Summary:

The Box of Fate is a two step game, that is very appealing to the eye, with attractive

colors and bright lights. Carnival games can be considered the highlight of a carnival to many

people. In order for these games to be successful, the operator has to gain money, but the player

has to have a chance at winning the game so that they keep coming back to play. This game was

designed with these concepts in mind, and players can expect to lose $1.08 each time they play

over time, which is good news for the carnival company because they can earn $1.08 over time,

every time someone plays the game. The addition of this game to the Carnival would not only

improve the amount of money the operator makes, but it will also increase the amount of people

that come to the carnival, which will make even more profit for the Carnival.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 14

The game starts with the player walking up to the game a being in awe of the decorations.

They then pay two Dewey Dollars to play. After they pay, they proceed to the calculator and the

boxes. A calculator is on the table next to the game, they press enter on the calculator to

determine which box they will be open. Next, they open their box and read the message that is

inside. If the message “You get a sucker!” appears, they grab a sucker and randomize the boxes

in any order they would like for the next player and move on with their own business. If the

message “Go to the spinner” appears, they move on to the spinner and continue the game. Once

the player is at the spinner, they will spin the spinner just hard enough for it to rotate in a full

circle at least one time and wait for it to stop. The player will then determine the prize that they

receive based on the color that they land on (white or black represents losing, turquoise

represents winning two Dewey Dollars, and gold represents winning five Dewey Dollars).

Lastly, the player collects their prize if they won anything and randomizes the boxes for the next

player.

During the course of the Carnival Game Project, the work was distributed evenly. All

three group members contributed on at least a small aspect of each part in the paper and the

construction. Aubrey made a decorated the spinner, the boxes and bought the suckers. Carly

bought the trifold, but Knicko decorated it with much detail. Aubrey did the intro and Part I, but

had suggestions from Knicko and Carly. Carly wrote the majority Part II and III of the paper, but

Knicko and Aubrey helped with formatting and suggestions on what to say. Each member did a

different simulation for Part IV of the paper. Aubrey did the fifty trials by physically playing the

game. Carly did the five hundred trials by finding an online simulation to use. Knicko created the

Java program that simulated the 5,000 trials. The members then wrote their respective sections of
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 15

the paper with the help of the other members. All of the math was checked by each member.

Over all, the work was distributed evenly and the members were very productive.
 Filion - Mojica - Rupert 16

Appendix A: Java Program

Filion - Mojica - Rupert 17